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Champions League > Apr 11th & 12th


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The draw for the 2016/17 Champions League Quarter Finals took place earlier today. It has left us with a dazzling set of fixtures. The previous round of action saw almost 150 posts from you guys in one of the most hotly discussed topics this forum has seen. So I am very interested to see what you all think here.

@vasilli07, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @DrBetter, @LePapo, @Duuc, @DrO, @immortal--, @Notorious, @betcatalog, @KingSoccertips, @discipline, @Pep004, @andrewcalo, @HastGill1, @ElPrincipito007, @salmonman, @DW_United, @allthethings, and @WinningAdvice, you all contributed to the last round of action. What are you fancying for these first legs?

Personally, I'm going early and saying Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, and Juventus will get home wins. Bayern Munich and Real Madrid to end in a score draw.

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7 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

I'll say it once, them shut up till it happens.

Leicester are going to win the Champions League.

I'll have a pint of whatever you're drinking! :beer 

They have a small chance of beating AM overall, but I just can't see it. Monaco look a huge price to beat Dortmund away, they should never be 5.25!

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1 hour ago, Sir Puntalot said:

I'll have a pint of whatever you're drinking! :beer 

They have a small chance of beating AM overall, but I just can't see it. Monaco look a huge price to beat Dortmund away, they should never be 5.25!

Monaco will find it easier to score goals v Dortmund than City. I'll take Moncao to qualify at 2.50 right now.

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Dortmunds defence is just not good at all and Touchal still doesn't have the same team spirit as Klopp did. In a lot of senses this team is a poorer version of Manchester City.

I will take Monaco now as I expect one or two away goals for them in the (a) leg which should drop the price.

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My shortlist for the 1st leg.

Monaco to qualify. Still not convinced by Dortmund and Tuchel tactical ability. If Monaco can defend abit better, I think they should qualify.

Bayern to win. Both teams are evenly matched so I'm going with the better manager Carlos Ancelotti.

Juventus to qualify. Surely Juventus can defend better than PSG, right? If they can get a 2 goals win in the 1st leg, I believe they can qualify.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Has the weekend results of the teams involved in these matches affected anyone's views on what will happen? I'm wondering how Leicester will react to that 4-2 defeat yesterday that ended their run of wins? It came at possibly the worst time.

Four very tough games but I think we could see four home wins. My biggest uncertainty is Bayern Munich versus Real Madrid. I could see that being a draw potentially.

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Dortmund v Monaco

The over 2.5 goals is the obvious choice here, but 1.44? I'd rather stick my head in a blender, after all it's not guaranteed. I think the Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.90 BetVictor is well worth considering, because I don't see Monaco going to Dortmund and piling on an all out attack, you can easily get killed in Dortmund doing that.

However, I'll go for the slightly safer bet of Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.80 (4/5) @ Skybet  :ok

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Juventus v Barcelona

One thing Juve don't want, is to go to the Nou Camp needing a win, so they have to go for it in this leg to a big degree and that could play right into Barca's hands.

This looked an Overs match to me right from the start and nothing has changed my mind, but I'm amazed to be getting odds against.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 (EVENS) Bet365

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Am I the only one who is looking at Juve here? Barca got fucking battered by PSG in the last round and just lost to Malaga. I don't care how many big names are in the side, Barca have this season has shown time and time again they are just not as effective as previous versions.

Juve are great at home and unlike PSG have some right streetwise/experienced players who are not shy to put the foot in and turn the contest into a battle. Bonuci and Chielini are masters of it.  Barca don't like games like that and with Dybala and Higuin they will hurt Barca in Turin.

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All football fans wait in this match and show a lot of goals, also struggle as the two teams, not expecting something else
BORUSSIA DORTMUND vs AS MONACO @@ +3.00 Over, odds 1.60

Barcelona is not the group of previous years has past issues and does not indicate a good racing condition, Juventus will play as always with an emphasis on defense, I expect a low tempo game with few goals
PARIS SAINT GERMAIN vs FC BARCELONA @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.80

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juve and mónaco to qualify are my picks for this round. barca have been terrible away from home. they've lost against psg depor malaga and they beat atleti with a late winner. búsquets is not playing and that will be a big absence, he's the key in the team and i think barca will struggle to control the midfield as they usually do. juve are a great team i have lots of expectation on them, i think they can win the champions league i see them as strong as bayern real or barca. so at odds of 2.40 there's obviously value to me. 

then monaco have a great chance of reaching the last four, dortmund have lost a bit of form lately, drawing to schalke and  losing easily to bayern. again odds on monaco are high imo , this tie to me is 50-50. both are really offensive teams but i'll give the edge to monaco , falcao is back and they rest their main players on the weekend. i hope this is a high scoring match like the one at étihad so they can go back to france with a decent chance to close the tie at home.

juventus to qualify at 2.40

monaco to qualify at 2.40

Edited by LePapo
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Juventus to score more than once - 2.45

if Juve want to get past Barca, obviously they need to get positive result tonight. they can win and they probably will, but imo, if I'm going to back them to win or qualify, then I'd rather choose much "safer" bet at similar odds + I don't have to wait two weeks for rematch. Barca's defence is very suspicious these days and I'm not even talking about their defeats against City and PSG, I'm talking about them conceding pretty much every week against the clubs like Malaga, Deportivo, Granada, Sporting, Valencia etc. Juventus will surely score here and the only question is how many. if you ask me, more than once.

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29 minutes ago, Notorious said:

Juventus will not lose today. No Busi for Barca.This reeks of a Juve 2-0 win, I don't see Barca scoring. However Barca in a big c league game is chalk for a penalty. 

Oh f... I didn't know that. Without Busquets, this midfield is on level of Leganes. With all respect to players playing in this midfield, including Iniesta and Rakitić, who are amazing midfielders, this midfield is rubbish. Reason is of course in amazing philosophy of Enrique, who ruined the way how Barcelona's midfield worked before.. Just waiting to see exceptional player Andre Gomes in first lineup and Juve to win is must take at odds like this. Everything is actually on Messi today, and probably on Umtiti & Ter Stegen back there. If they will save 4-5 chances, and if Messi will be on his level then they have chances.. but without Busi, I wouldn't put a cent on Barca right now. Build up will be disastrous! We'll probably see Messi going deep to search the ball, which means that he'll be much easier to cover, as 4-5 players will be able to make pressing on him. Exact the same what PSG did on first match. That leads to another "star" player of Barca - Neymar. Will he put a great performance today or not? He'll be covered by the guy who know him very well.. (Alves) which is probably not the best for Ney. 

 

I agree with @Sir Puntalot. Odds on over in Dortmund are rubbish. On the other hand, Jardim is not bad coach tactically. I was reading today different variations, and it might even happen that Raggi will start on left full back, which in my opinion means that their defence line will stay pretty deep, which is actually totally understandable, as you won't let Auba lot of space behind your defenders if you are normal. Both, Sidibe and Mendy might start on the bench, and we'll see him for sure on 2nd leg match, where I think that Monaco will exploit themselves much more. Everyone expecting crazy Monaco tonight, Tuchel said that they will need to score, because Monaco will score for sure. I don't disagree with that, as Bernardo Silva, Lemar, Mbappe, Falcao/Germain are still here, but I am somehow cautious about their style today. Fact is that without Bakayoko in midfield, their key box to box midfielder is out. What does that mean? That means that they won't arrive in opposite box that much and that many times with 7 players (both full backs, 1/2 midfielders, 2 wingers, 2 attackers). As BVB uses to play pretty offensive, I think that Jardim will count more on their individual abilities today. Bernardo Silva, Lemar, Mbappe, Falcao.. all capable to score from nothing.. It was impossible to stay back against City for Monaco,... BVB is not as deadly and quick on wings, having some missing players, etc... Don't forget that gamble is getting bigger and bigger, they are playing for semi finals of CL, so I am really not sure that we'll see both teams going all out attack...

 

Everyone is saying, that Atletico Madrid was lucky as they pick Leicester on draw. I am not sure. Just remember the match against PSV. They cause them more problems than Barcelona. Atletico prefers to play when the opponent is having possession of the ball, but Leicester is far from that. We could even say, that Leicester is kind of English Atletico. Of course tactically far from that, we shouldn't underestimate Simeone's Atletico, but in my opinion.. they are not as big favourites as people think. They always have problems when they need to have the ball, ball movement is pretty slow for them, and they might have problems to go through Leicester's defence. I think that everything will depend on first goal. If Atletico will score, then Leicester will take the ball, because otherwise no one will be in possession :D and then things might become cruel to Leicester, as Atletico could fill them.. but if Atleti will have problems to score (as against PSV), than this could be a coin flip battle (remember the post of PSV in last minutes). Both teams strong in aerial duels, both likes to play aggressive,...

 

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I must say that I paid two bets before the start of the season to Juventus and Atletico win the Champions League. Both the odds were 15.
Obviously I hope both teams can qualify to the next round.

As for tonight's matches..
Juventus - Barcelona

With the Italian Champions in fine form and Barca less convincing on the road,i think backing the hosts in some way makes sense on this evening.
Juve's home record is one of the most impressive across the continent with the Old Lady unbeaten in their own stadium in any competition since August 2015.
Barcelona's recent away record does not inspire much confidence with their defeat at Malaga on Saturday the third in their last five matches in the road in all competitions.
I think that the best or "safest" bet is Juve DNB@1.90 or even Juventus to be ahead on half time or full time @2.20

Dortmund - Monaco

 

Having won three and lost none of their four matches in their own back yard so far in the competition, Die Schwarzgelben are  favourites  to take control of the tie by coming out on top once again.Meanwhile, Leonardo Jardim’s men have lost both of their last two European matches on the road but are on offer at  to put one foot in the final four with a victory in Germany.
Having been forced to overturn first-leg deficits in order to see off Benfica and Manchester City in their respective last 16 ties, both of these sides will know the importance of strong home performances in European competition.
Unbeaten in 19 matches in front of their own fans this campaign, Thomas Tuchel’s men will feel confident of giving themselves a lead to protect for the trip to Stade Louis II considering their guests have lost five and won just three of their last nine European away games.

Odds of 2.75 seem too good to pass up on Monaco finding the net but ending up on the losing side against a Dortmund team that has scored 25 goals in eight Champions League games but conceded seven and kept just one clean sheet in the last four.
Dortmund to win&BTTS @2.75
  

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Everyone seems convinced that Juventus will win, I'm not so sure of that. I think it's a favorable match up for Barcelona due to the style of play. It's true that Barcelona has not been convincing in some of their away games but it's all due to line up and tactics.Barcelona played in a 433 formation in those games instead of the 343 that has been succefull as of late loosing a lot of the midfield batlles. Against Juventus i'm assuming they will line up in a 343. Busquets suspension is obviously a big blow. Most people expect Gomes to start ,but i think Enrique will have learned the lessons from the game in Paris. I think Mathieu will start in the back three to have extra aerial presence and speed and Mascherano in midfield. I don't see Juventus pressing up high, if they do it I don't think they can do it effectively Barcelona will have most of the ball and will have  time to choose their moments. Obviously Juventus can defend but I pretty sure the little man will deliver some magic. 

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Hey fellas.

Dortmund undefeated in 2 years at home, little value in this game.

I agree on Juve, they are formidable at home.

 

Personally going for a CS double just for fun as I don't find much value apart from Juve win straight up.

Juve 2-0

Dortmund 3-1

@ 180

Juve 2-0 or 2-1

Dortmund 3-1 

@ 72

Aubemayang anytime scorer & Dortmund 3-1 

@ 41

Just to make things a bit more interesting and fun.

Best of luck!

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2 hours ago, Icongene said:

I'll take Juventus on a DnB tonight. I just don't see them losing this one tonight. Too much experience at this level (guys who have played CL finals) and without Busquets Barca will struggle in the middle.

DnB Juve at 1.91

Yeah, I would even go one step further and say I can see Juventus securing a solid win over Barcelona. I wouldn't be surprised if they win by 2 goals.

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