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Copa Libertadores 2017

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Any of you following this competition? Into its second week of action now. There are also some fixtures scheduled for Friday but these have not been released by bet365 yet. We will get them up when they become available.

@gogetta, you are our resident South American football expert. Where would you advise that someone begins with betting on these games?

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On 13/03/2017 à, StevieDay1983 said:

@gogetta, you are our resident South American football expert. Where would you advise that someone begins with betting on these games?

Sorry. I decided not to get involved in the early rounds because of high unpredictability. Apart from the Chapecoense-Lanus game (plse refer to my last prediction in the Argentina Primera Division), I wasn't sure of the rest.

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  • 5 weeks later...

COLOMBIA: Atletico Nacional - Envigado 2 @ 6.00, X2 @ 2.60


Google translated:

After the defeat with Botafogo, coach Reinaldo Rueda made clear that all efforts will be turned to change the situation in the Copa Libertadores and, therefore tomorrow against Envigado (8:00 p.m.), will use the young. "Against Envigado we will not have nor the alternate team, we will be with the juveniles," emphasized Rueda.

This becomes a new challenge for those under Nixon Perea, coach of the U19 category and who from the defeat against Santa Fe in the semifinal of the Eagle-2 2016 League was waiting for the rematch.

"We know the responsibility, because the team is close to ensuring the quota among the eight and so far has not lost," said Perea.

He is not mistaken because a green victory leaves him assured in the absence of 7 days to finish the phase of all against all.

Perea recalled that defeat in the semifinals, 0-4 against Santa Fe, was before the champion of the South American and that all parties are different. Among the juveniles are Háider Borja, Cristian Moya, Sebastián Támara; Rodin Quiñones, Juan Pablo Ramírez, Duvan Uribe and Andrés Sarmiento.

Nacional meets his best start in short tournaments, accumulates 11 undefeated dates, with a less match that will play against Junior on 26 April.

Atletico played Copa Libertadores game 3 days ago, and are playing another one in 3 days... Their U-19 team is nowhere near the level of serious, senior football and those few senior players are those who played very little so far. Guest win is very likely here, odds will drop A LOT soon...

Feel free to share :)

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  • 2 months later...


@gogetta, @sandrostocco, @AndreBR, and @clubgowi, do any of you guys follow the Copa Libertadores closely? It's entering it's final 16 round now so tensions are tighter. A few big names still left in it. Personally, I am pleased to see my Brazilian side Gremio still in the mix. Hopefully, they can get the win away to Godoy Cruz this Tuesday.

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  • 1 month later...
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  • 2 weeks later...

Copa Libertadores Semi Finals are in a couple of weeks...


River Plate (ARG) v Lanus (ARG)


Argentine ratings;


Barcelona (ECU) v Gremio (BRA)



General Mutterings

The 1st semi final is the all-Argentine affair between River Plate and Lanus, as it concerns teams from the same nation, I will use my league "true odds" as a base point as oppose competition true odds.

River top my early season ratings (5 matches) in with Lanus languishing in 24th place, over the last year River's rating is 0.598 with Lanus 0.456, it's fair to say I rate River ahead of Lanus, the market agrees with Rivers market rating of 0.602 over the past year compared to Lanus 0.504.

Barcelona and Gremio is interesting one, based on my competition true odds when Barcelona played Santos last month - only home advantage separated the two sides, however when Barcelona played Palmerias in July, the Brazilians were heavily favoured. On doemstic market ratings over the past year, Palmerias are rated 0.573, Gremio 0.529 and Santos 0.498, given that I'd price Barce slap bang in the middle of the prices they were against the other 2 Brazillian teams - somewhere around 2.00/2.10. So that's my starting point, if you look above when Gremio last played away in Ecuador LDU Quito were sent of 1.80, so the price feels right to me. Having said all of that, Gremio top my Brazillian Shot Ratings, so I'm going to nudge out my Barcelona price to account for this to around 2.25/ 2.30 which still feels about right. Looking at some very early quotes from some of the Asian firms they have Barcelona priced at 2.84 which I think is too big. I think Gremio are the better team but i don't think the difference in the two sides is as great as the odds suggest.



Edited by jamiedavies02
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  • 3 weeks later...


It's the second legs of the Copa Libertadores Semi-Finals coming up this week. There was little chat in regards to the first leg betting so hopefully we can get some discussion going for these games with so much on the line. River Plate hold a 1-0 lead going into their second leg against Lanus. Will that slender lead be enough? In the other tie, Gremio secured a convincing 3-0 win away to Barcelona Guayaquil in their first leg so they are all but through. Interested to hear about any bets you guys might be slamming down for these two matches.

@Davor_92@gogetta, @sandrostocco, @AndreBR, @LucianoMartins, @NoFear, @jamiedavies02, and @clubgowi?

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Copa Libertadores 2017 - Outright

They aren't much of a price but I think Gremio are outstanding value to win the Copa Libertadores at 4/5 (bet365) - I think they should be closer to 4/7,

Dmoestic Matters

I've included below my Brazilian Serie A ratings for the last year and Argentine Primera ratings taken over the same period (STR - Orange)



As you can see I rate Gremio as one of the top Brazilian sides over the course of the last year, Lanus on the other hand, despite winning the title last season find themselves in an upper midtable position as far as my ratings go.

Competition Notes

Since 2011/12 Brazilian sides have a strike rate of 0.585 in Copa Libertadores matches, Argentine sides strike rate is slightly lower ar 0.561
Brazilian sides have won 4 of the last 8 tournements with 1 further final appearance
Argentine sides have won 3 of the last 8 tournements with 1 further final appearance
H2H in Copa Lib matches Brazilian sides hold a slight lead; 26-17-23, both nations however tend to be very strong at home.


Gremio faced Argentine side Godoy Cruz in the L16, they were priced at 1.43 for the home leg and 2.32 for the away leg and before the 1st leg they was 1/2 To Qualify. If we refer back to my Argentine ratings above and compare Godoy Cruz and Lanus, you'll see that there is'nt much between the two sides on my ratings with Lanus being prefferred. So, the prices for Gremio v Godoy Cruz seem a good starting point, as my ratings favour Lanus over Godoy I'll make some adjustments and push out Gremio a touch and shorten Lanus, I think a fair price for Gremio would be around 1.66 for the home leg and around 2.65 for the away, again taking into the difference between Lanus and Godoy I'd have Gremio around 4/7 for the outright with Lanus 5/4.

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