Club Rugby Weekend > Mar 3rd & 4th

[StevieDay1983]

@harry_rag, some club rugby for us to look over this weekend in the absence of Six Nations action. You had a decent set of results last weekend on the international stage. What do you think here? Not a great deal to look through but some interesting match ups.

[harry_rag]

Have to be honest and say that most of my betting is based on looking at the games nearer the time and comparing prices and stats so I'm largely unencumbered by knowledge or opinion in advance! 

Will post any thoughts as and when, especially tryscorer related. The only thing that leaps out from a quick look at the fixtures is the 2 games involving the Italian teams as almost 30 points underdogs. Once the handicap hits that sort of line I often think there's the prospect of a value bet on the underdog's points as they can be underestimated by the layers.

[harry_rag]

Not that I'd ever have a bet for the sake of it but I do like an early Friday morning bet to give me that "weekend's here" feeling! Tomorrow's only Super Rugby game, Chiefs v Blues is a 6:35 kick off and I've had the following bets.

Faauli to score a try at 4/1, buy Blues hotshots at 27 (Nanai, R.Ioane, Duffie and Collins) and buy Duffie try minutes at 10, all with Spreadex

The hotshots look a little undervalued to me and while I always like a buy at just under 25 so that a single try edges you into profit this is still close enough to a break even proposition to make plenty of appeal. Faauli and Duffie are both best price 21/10 anytime elsewhere and look good bets at 4/1 anytime or more or less the equivalent of that price in try minutes. A couple of Duffie tries would obviously be nice given his presence in the hotshots line up.

[StevieDay1983]

Do you know any others that regularly bet on rugby union? It would be good to get their views as well. I think you and I can openly admit we are not exactly rugby connoisseurs! So would be great to get a more experienced view point.

[gegeti]

Hy everyone,

for today i will bet for a victory of castres at home against clermont at 1,4 because clermont do a turnover on his team, castres have a strong team at home and have target this game since start of season.clermont dont need absolutely this victory for qualification.

last point the weather is horrible at the moment on castres, a many rain, so it will be a fight of forward on this game.

[harry_rag]

On 3/3/2017, 1:23:26, StevieDay1983 said:

Do you know any others that regularly bet on rugby union? It would be good to get their views as well. I think you and I can openly admit we are not exactly rugby connoisseurs! So would be great to get a more experienced view point.

Not really. I have 3 broad sources for my Rugby bets.

1 - I'm following pretty much all of the RP tips this season to see how they do (just about in front so far, with the fixed odds  outperforming the spreads)

2 - I might occasionally see something that appeals from a tipster online somewhere

3 - My own bets which are mainly tryscorer related

I'm posting on here when time allows (as with Friday's collection of losing bets) but didn't have time to put any bets up today.

Although I don't generally have much insight to share in advance of a weekend's fixtures I will probably have a look at next weekend's 6 Nation games as I do tend to focus on International games a bit more closely than club competitions.

[harry_rag]

11 hours ago, gegeti said:

Hy everyone,

for today i will bet for a victory of castres at home against clermont at 1,4 because clermont do a turnover on his team, castres have a strong team at home and have target this game since start of season.clermont dont need absolutely this victory for qualification.

last point the weather is horrible at the moment on castres, a many rain, so it will be a fight of forward on this game.

Well done, a 10 point victory for Castres. 

[gegeti]

thanks harry,

for today, i ll go on a victory at home for Toulouse against La rochelle at 1,45

toulouse has no option, if they want be qualify they have to win today if not they are quasi eliminated .

really bad weather today on toulouse, so they put a solid and massive line of forward, La rochelle have big player that not here du to the 6 nations.

its a dead or alive game for toulouse, victory for them

 

ps:( sorry for my english but as you can see aim a frog) :-)

[harry_rag]

Good luck, I like these bets in Newcastle v Saracens.

Buy Goneva try minutes at 14 with SX 

The one player who appeals for the hosts, 2/1 in one place and shorter elsewhere so the chance to buy at a price I'd equate to 13/5 looks ok on his stats.

Ashton to score a try at 17/10, to score 2 or more at 7/1 and the hat trick at 35/1, all with PP

I agree with the rest of the industry that he's a sub 6/4 shot to score a try in this game so I'll have a go at that price. He's not adverse to scoring more than once in a game and the bigger prices are both worth a small bet, though only just in the case of the hat trick. (But I'd rather lose a couple of quid at that price than miss out on a winner!)

[harry_rag]

In Worcester v Bristol I've backed Heem to score a try at 2/1, Adams at 11/5 and Olivier at 9/2 (Heem with PP, the others with Lads) and bought Bristol hotshots at 20 with Spreadex (25 points per Varndell, Hurrell, Lemi and Woodward try)

Perhaps a bit risky in a game that the RP fancy to be tight and low scoring but if I see potential value I'm inclined to take it. One try from each group of players would be enough for a small profit.

The 3 home players are in their hotshots but make more appeal as a dutched fixed odds bet. The away hotshots look a bit undervalued and were 5 points higher (now 4) elsewhere. I think that's mainly down to them undervaluing Varndell who is clearly the main threat.

[harry_rag]

You could say that was one of my better days (compared to the ones where I put up that many bets and none of them win)!

76th minute try for Goneva. a single try for Ashton, Heem and Olivier both scored for Worcester to land the anytime bets and Varndell and Woodward for Bristol so their hotshots made up at 50.

Decent weekend overall, back on 6 Nations duty next weekend.