Weekend > Mar 3rd - 5th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Some fantastic midweek interaction once again for Ligue 1 guys. This section is really turning into its own beast. Who would have thought that at the start of the season when we were only getting a dozen or so posts per month covering Ligue 1 and Ligue 2. Impressive stuff everyone!

Let's keep it going! Another big week in Ligue 1 with just 3 points separating the top three. I think we can all agree that it is now certainly a three horse race for the title. All three appear to be bankers this week. Anyone getting on the Nice, Monaco, and PSG treble for 3.58. Nice are the biggest risk here but it's got to be worth the punt surely?

@FCNA and @Pep004, you both promised us big things from Nantes this past week? They were held to a 2-2 draw. What happened?!

@DrBetter, are you still tempted by that Lille bet tonight? What are you thinking this weekend?

@rangers234, great to see you involved in another thread and you were right to be wary of Nantes even mentioning the draw. Any bets taking your pick this week?

@Icongene, you wisely left Nantes alone. What do you like this weekend?

@KikoCy, the cup gave you the shudders so you left it alone. Are you back in the mix this weekend with Ligue 1 action?

@Tanktop, @sajtion, and @hairline, are you guys backing any bets this weekend?

[DrBetter]

Allready i know that i'll probably back Montpellier, this is the team which will rise, they're back in form, playing well and aggressive, and i'm predicting a good rush to the end the season for them... Plus Guigamp just played yesterday!  And I'd back also Nice maybe, DnB?... not sure yet... Will wait...

This week end doesn't seem very easy.. Not tempted by anything here..

For Monaco-Nantes.. Tough one, probably a BTTS here, as both are consistent scoring team... And Monaco's defense took 3 goals from Marseille, so at least they'll concede one from Nantes... let's wait the pre-lineup and the analysis of the Nantes's enthusiasts of this thread..

Edited March 2, 2017 by DrBetter

[KikoCy]

Lyon and Marseille have nice prices worthy of some extra research

[Pep004]

Oh @StevieDay1983, looks that I am writing to much lately, as you didn't follow my words for Nantes.  

On 01/03/2017, 13:54:54, Pep004 said:

Nantes is going there with good atmosphere in the club, surely thinking about the win, but again.. On this pitch, you need to add factor of luck for 20% more than on other matches. Anyone who have seen any match on this pitch knows what I'm talking about. Monaco had big big problems to handle the ball, as they are used to play with lot of passes. I would take DNB on Nantes but somewhere above 1,80, so for now I am not taking it. I know that our team is much better, also much better prepared and of course with better atmosphere inside the locker room, but against "mortal-combat club" on the worst pitch in the league. Besides it's not raining right now, but wind is approx 30km/h and on open stadium as it is in Furiani it might cause some problems... 

Anyway... allez Nantes!

[StevieDay1983]

1 hour ago, Pep004 said:

Oh @StevieDay1983, looks that I am writing to much lately, as you didn't follow my words for Nantes.  

Apologies, Pep. I thought I remembered you saying the previous weekend that their game against Bastia was going to be a more appealing bet than the game last weekend. That might have been @FCNA saying that though! I'm getting my Nantes fans confused! I'm just generally getting confused a lot today anyway. Woke up on the slow side of the bed this morning I think!

[Pep004]

Haha, it's not a problem.  I am looking forward to goals on Bordeaux - Lyon game. Both teams with great attack ability, while specially Bordeaux defence is pretty poor. Yesterday I wrote down odds 1,87 for over 2,75, right now odds are on 1,77.  It's a question about value now, but I think that I will take 3 goals option here. 

[betcatalog]

Excellent both teams give their own fight to finish as high as possible in the standings, have good offensive lines and can offer us an open game with goals
FC GIRONDINS BORDEAUX vs OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.79

[Pep004]

@betcatalog where did you get 1,79? Odds are around 1,63 for over 2,5.

[Icongene]

Are you seeing anything in over 3.5?

Im getting odds of 1.63 also. No way at that price for me.

[Pep004]

As I really love attacks of bout teams, and with Rolan back in squad, I will take over 3.0.

[sajtion]

lyon haven't won away game since 18th december. bordeaux are decent at their own stadium and draw a lot so on balance a score draw it is

[Magic0024]

Ligue 1:

Lyon have lost their last 3 away games in Ligue 1.

Interesting 20 Football Betting Streaks for 03.03.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-03-03-2017

[Pep004]

As mentioned above, I expect a goal fest today. Both teams prefer to play attacking football, both teams with shaky defences, even though Genesio was talking that they need to improve defence, specially with midfielders helping more in defensive phases, but Thursdays training was all about attacking phases and finishing. I think that Bordeaux is too dangerous in attack and on the other hand too vulnerable in defence. Whole analysis here!

[StevieDay1983]

50 minutes ago, sajtion said:

lyon haven't won away game since 18th december. bordeaux are decent at their own stadium and draw a lot so on balance a score draw it is

Yeah, Lyon are losing their way a bit. They were one of the sides I felt could go the distance but I'm not touching them with a barge pole on the road. @Icongene, I like the over 3.5 goals shout for Bordeaux versus Lyon though. I'm finding 2.50 for the price on that.

[Icongene]

I ended up doubling up Lyon/Bordeaux BTTS and Eibar/Madrid BTTS at 2.36.

I just can't take the 2.5 market at as low as 1.57 (or therabouts) it's just not my bet and don't want stung taking the 3.5 alone.

 

[andrewcalo]

I fancy Lyon. As does a tipster I like. Which is why I fancy them tbh lol

[Pep004]

Unfortunately match full of chances finished with 1-1. Tomorrow I am going with Metz AH 0, as I think that they are underestimated in this match. Diabate and Cohade are coming back and they need to win points at home. 

Metz - Rennes, PICK: Metz AH 0 @2,13 SBO 5/10

Match between 17th and 8th placed team will be played on Stade Saint-Symphorien in Metz, and will start at 20:45 on Saturday.

Metz is coming to match after disappointing defeat in Lyon, where they lost 5-0. Everything could be different if they wouldn't miss empty goal from 1-2 meters in first half but after this chance, Lyon trashed them. We need to consider that Metz played without Cohade and Diabate, main players in last matches, and in this match against Rennes we'll watch different Metz. Not just Diabate and Cohade, also Sar is back in squad and offense of Metz will look much better. 

Squad of Metz: 

Gardiens : Didillon, Oberhauser.

Défenseurs : Milan, Falette, Bisevac, Signorino, Balliu, Rivierez.

Milieux de terrain : Mandjeck, Jouffre, Sarr, Lejeune, Nguette, Fallou, Cohade, Doukouré.

Attaquants : Erding, Diabaté.

 

Rennes won their home match against Lorient (1-0) and even if Lorient started solid, Rennes deserved this win as they were better for bigger part of the match. They are close to European places now, but I think that they don't have enough quality to fight with Marseille or Bordeaux. Christian Gourcuff will miss Mexer, Mendes, Chantome, Janvier and Amalfitano, but is welcoming back his son Yoann.

Squad of Rennes: 

Gardiens: Costil, M'Bolhi 

Defenseurs: Bansebani, Cavare, Baal, Danze, Gnagnon, Afonso

Milieux de terrain: Fernandes, Andre, Hanou, Prcic, Gourcuff

Attaquants: Mubele, Said, Sio, Diakhaby, Kalulu

 

In my opinion this match will be closer to 50/50 than odds are showing. That's why I see value in odds above 2,10 on draw no bet of home team. Because of recent incidents there will be some punishment, if I am not wrong, eastern part of stadium will be closed, but they simply need points in battle to avoid relegation. With Diabata and Cohade back in the squad, this team will look much stronger in attack and I think that they could surprise better positioned club. Anyway, Rennes won only 8 points more than Metz, while Metz has one match less. Between 8th and 14th place there is only 5 points difference and things can change really quickly.

[Magic0024]

Ligue 1:

Guingamp have lost with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 4 away games in Ligue 1.
Paris Saint-Germain are undefeated in their last 17 home games in Ligue 1.
SC Bastia have drawn their last 4 home games in Ligue 1.

Interesting 39 Football Betting Streaks for 04.03.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-04-03-2017

[StevieDay1983]

23 hours ago, sajtion said:

lyon haven't won away game since 18th december. bordeaux are decent at their own stadium and draw a lot so on balance a score draw it is

Boom! I hope you smacked that bet down, @sajtion! 

[DrBetter]

So for next games, not too much feelings here, i'll back Montpellier for a win against a troubled guigamp team who played 3 days ago... So Montpellier @1.95  

And a combined bet with PSG win by more than a goal margin (don't know how you call this bet in england) combined with Nice in a draw no bet at Dijon, total odds around 2.2!

Good luck guys!

Edited March 4, 2017 by DrBetter

[FCNA]

Hi guys

PSG vs Nancy Home Win / PSG 1.5 / PSG 2.5

Opposite side, opposite form. Nothing to say more.

MHSC vs Guingamp Home Win

To my mind, Guigamp will be now concentrate on french Cup who they're use to succeed in. Their bench os too short and now, they're folling down in table. Anyway, they're safe. On the other hand, MHSC since the arrival of Le Gasset is better. Full squad tonight and no match during the week.

Lorient vs OM BTS / Over

Defenses are weaker than attacks and I see goals here. Even if Gomis is still out for a long time, Payet, Thauvin... are able to score as we seen against Monaco. Lorient fight to satay in Ligue 1 and can't stay behind. Goals.

TFC vs Lille Home win

Bielsa's come back, but not yet ! Passi instead ? What is doing the new manager with the coaches, with his incoherent mercato ?? I don't understand but I see the results and they're not here. So at home, where TFC use to succeed, I don't see any surprise.

Bastia vs ASSE Under / Draw

8 draws at home for Bastia, currently their best result, again this week. And Les Verts use to draw also and above all don't score a lot. Obvious !

[Icongene]

Guingamp and Rennes on the bastard list 

[malabgd]

FC Lorient v Olympique Marseille
FC Lorient: Barthelmé (8/0 d), Mesloub (19/0 m), Mvuemba (22/0 m), Paye (0/0 d), Cabot (18/3 m), Cafú (17/0 m)
Olympique Marseille: Sanson (6/0 m), Sakai (25/0 d), Bedimo (10/0 d) (all doubtful), Hubocan (12/0 d), Kamara (0/0 d), Gomis (24/16 f, top scorer), Khaoui (9/0 m), Diaby (2/0 m), Evra (4/0 d)

AS Monaco v FC Nantes
AS Monaco: Boschilia (11/6 m), Falcao (21/16 f, top scorer), Carrillo (17/7 f)
FC Nantes: Oliveira (1/0 m), Braat (0/0 g), Vizcarrondo (20/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[DrBetter]

Disappointing Montpellier yesterday... And PSG was so unlucky, Nancy had one chance  in the match at the end, that's it, the rest PSG totally bossed every aspect of the game, many chances, but just a 1-0 win... Let's hope Monaco win tonight to save the day,

Took Monaco win with BTTS... a bit risky.. but lot of reasons to back this one..!

Edited March 5, 2017 by DrBetter

[Icongene]

3 hours ago, DrBetter said:

Disappointing Montpellier yesterday... And PSG was so unlucky, Nancy had one chance  in the match at the end, that's it, the rest PSG totally bossed every aspect of the game, many chances, but just a 1-0 win... Let's hope Monaco win tonight to save the day,

Took Monaco win with BTTS... a bit risky.. but lot of reasons to back this one..!

Thinking of a similar bet. Im just not so sure Nantes has that much to offer on the road v Monaco. I think they SHOULD score 1. But if Monaco score early and heads go down then I can see the game passing Nantes offensive by.I think I prefer odds of Monaco -1ah at 1.95.

 

Edited March 5, 2017 by Icongene

[Icongene]

Took Monaco -1ah at 1.91 and Monaco and over 2.5 at 1.95. 

Match is currently 3-0 to (h) side. Nantes have actually given a good account of themselves going forward by as I predicted they are being ripped apart on the counter everytime. 2 goals in 2 mins for Mbappe has ended this one as a contest and there's definitely more goals here on the in play market. Wouldn't be surprised to see this go over 4.5.

[DrBetter]

@Icongene You did right... the clever bet here was an over 2.5, but i don't know i believed in Nantes, i saw them some weeks ago vs PSG, i found them good even if they didn't had many chances, but I thought at least they'll be able to score one goal, given the fact that Monaco's defense is not super solid right now... But backing Nantes in away games, to win or to score is something i'll avoid next time...

[Icongene]

23 minutes ago, DrBetter said:

@Icongene You did right... the clever bet here was an over 2.5, but i don't know i believed in Nantes, i saw them some weeks ago vs PSG, i found them good even if they didn't had many chances, but I thought at least they'll be able to score one goal, given the fact that Monaco's defense is not super solid right now... But backing Nantes in away games, to win or to score is something i'll avoid next time...

They played well without creating anything clear cut. I was very tempted by the BTTS also but I think Nantes are best left for (h) bets as you say and bets against teams who play attacking and open football but aren't quite at the level of Monaco such as Lyon/Marseille.

Edited March 5, 2017 by Icongene