Champions League > Mar 7th - 15th

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the odds for the second legs. I will be looking to gauge the opinion of those of you that bet on the first legs to see what you think a bit closer to the games. For now, let us know what you are thinking early doors.

[vasilli07]

Arsenal looks good. They always perform better in the 2nd leg even though they have close to zero chance of making it to the next round.

[Icongene]

If im being honest, I would back Monaco (h) at odds over 2.00 to beat any team in the world. So 2.40 to beat City looks yummy.

Will have a look at Dortmund on the handicap but the lack of away goal does make things sticky so value maybe not there. 

Seville odds will drop closer to the time I think but 1.95 again, is pretty decent.

Also, PSG at 7.00? Way, way too high. If Barca don't get the early goal I can easily see frustration from the stands and PSG can pick them off on the counter. 1-0 or 2-0 is not completely out the question. The alternative is 4-0 Barca 

Edited February 25, 2017 by Icongene

[KikoCy]

Perhaps a cheeky PSG +1.5AH @ 1.667? The outcome of Atleti - Barca will be telling.

Even Benfica to qualify @ 1.90 is alright for me.

Napoli  BTTS @ 1.44 is low but a banker to me.

Will wait for final week to review again.

[DrBetter]

Napoli - Real : BTTS

Monaco - City: Monaco win (same as Icongene, at home in front of their small public, in this little sunny stadium over the french riviera, i would back them anytime, anywhere, versus anybody...), i still can't recover from Falcao's lob vs City... Genius... And Mbapé & Bernardo Silva, what to say.. ! Tremendous players..!

About Barca-PSG (I know it's in 10 days, there's time..): I'd back for this game: PSG to win @7, or PSG win and over+2.5 @8.5, or the safe bet: BTTS, because of course PSG will score..

For Barca to score, they'll have to pass PSG defense, and they didn't even get close last time, Monaco neither 3 weeks ago when they grabbed a lucky draw in Paris, Marseille neither at home.. PSG defense has never melt in years even against strong opposition, they almost never concede a goal, i don't see Barca scoring more than a goal, maybe 2, but it will be miraculous... PSG winning with a clean sheet is also strongly possible, remember Bayern 2 years ago, winning 3-0 at Camp Nou... Barca is not used to deal with defense like those of Bayern or Paris... it's not the same than in Liga...

PSG has one the best defense in Europe, better than Barca's, a better midfield with Verratti, Matuidi and Rabiot, and even if Barca has MSN, PSG has now DCD (Draxler/Cavani/Di maria) almost as good in the moment...

How in the world Barca will be able to resist PSG, i mean not concede at least two goals?? A team who perform very well when being attacked, who doesn't need much chances to score... PSG struggle sometimes against solid, grouped team, who park the bus, but is brillant anytime there's space, and Barca will have to go full power, and won't resist PSG in counter-attack, not with their defense... Plus, PSG has the luxury to do a light turnover on next games, and will be able to line up the usual dream team in good form ! 

I honestly could even consider PSG to win by more than a goal over Barca @11,5 (but here i'm not even objective), or more safe: PSG to score over 1.5 goals @3.2 (this one is my favourite)... Let's wait, because if Verratti is injured in the next days it's not the same game anymore... He's the key player here.  But PSG to score, even more than one goal is something absolutely sure for me... But as a huge PSG fan of course my heart is speaking... never good while betting i know... Can't stop myself believing a victory in the Champions league for Paris... I just see them crushing everybody till the finale... 

Am I blind guys or are you also backing PSG to score and/or win...?

 

Edited March 2, 2017 by DrBetter

[Icongene]

Juventus/Atletico are the teams that can stop PSG for me.

What I would say, is that of all the teams in the world Barca, are without doubt the most overvalued by the bookies, especially in the Champions League.

It's like the Cups won under Pep meant Barca can't be priced above 1.50 for a (h) win EVER! 

The value on PSG here is undoubtedly huge. I'll wait for line-ups personally because I don't see prices drifting that much between now and then. The bookies have decided Barca are heavy favorites and the market should follow suit. There is ZERO value on Barca here.

Edited March 1, 2017 by Icongene

[DrBetter]

20 hours ago, Icongene said:

Juventus/Atletico are the teams that can stop PSG for me.

Juventus sure, huge team, superb defense... But I think PSG is above in the midfield and in attack... Plus I saw a few of their matchs against big teams, and it wasn't really brillant... this autumn they struggled against Lyon, a lot, against atalanta too and more recently... But definitely a scary team..

Athletico i'm not sure.. they've never impressed me this year since their win against Bayern, i'm not that impressed by Griezman and Gameiro, they've troubles sometimes in defense and midfield, they're less frightening than past years... Not a machine anymore

The true contender of course is Bayern... But Ancelotti's team always win and never impressed me though.. At Madrid, they won the CL but IMO weren't the best team at the time, like last year.. Even when he was in Paris, we did a good quarter in CL against Barca, decent year, but i never thought we played a beautiful football, until Laurent Blanc and his "barca-like" tactics... With Emery it's just impressive how PSG is now playing.. It's like Athletico 2 years ago, lot of pressing, good movement, but with so much technical touch, still a kind of Barca's touch of Laurent Blanc's legacy.. I think he found a perfect equilibrium in this team, building on what's was working, adding his fighting spirit philosophy, and he just won 3 europa league in a row, i'm sure he can do a fourth finale, this time in CL, the guy is a born winner!

I just hope that we'll have a finale Bayern - PSG... Would be great!  And I just hope that Madrid won't have, again, an easy path to the final... Real - Bayern in a quarter, and Juventus - Athletico in an other would be the dream! I'd love to draw Sevilla, Emery vs his old club.. Would be nice!

Edited March 2, 2017 by DrBetter

[LePapo]

I think there's a massive overreaction after the first leg. PSG played a good match but let's be honest Barca was disastrous that day, probably the worst they've played during the LE era. In previous matches they were struggling, they narrowly eliminated Atletico with some dodgy refereeing and 1-1 was enough thanks to an awful first half performance from Atleti in the first leg...  so yeah they weren't playing great in February. (they almost draw against leganes...) 4-0 is almost impossible to come back but keep in mind that this result is not the difference between these two teams... PSG will normally qualify to the next round but IMO they're far from being favourites as I've read, I think Juve Madrid Bayern are stronger candidates than the french team. They couldn't even win their group stage... This PSG team can beat Barca 4-0 but can also draw against Toulouse or Ludogorets at home. Even in France they're not the best team IMO, Monaco much better even with the big gap in players name... Last year PSG got eliminated against Man City when they were at 1.45 to qualify.. Even Sevilla or Dortmund can eliminate this french team this season, I'll be more than happy to lay them in the next round if they start as favourites...

And at last, they're french and everyone who bets knows that french teams/players will eventually choke at some point.

[StevieDay1983]

20 hours ago, LePapo said:

I think there's a massive overreaction after the first leg. PSG played a good match but let's be honest Barca was disastrous that day, probably the worst they've played during the LE era. In previous matches they were struggling, they narrowly eliminated Atletico with some dodgy refereeing and 1-1 was enough thanks to an awful first half performance from Atleti in the first leg...  so yeah they weren't playing great in February. (they almost draw against leganes...) 4-0 is almost impossible to come back but keep in mind that this result is not the difference between these two teams... PSG will normally qualify to the next round but IMO they're far from being favourites as I've read, I think Juve Madrid Bayern are stronger candidates than the french team. They couldn't even win their group stage... This PSG team can beat Barca 4-0 but can also draw against Toulouse or Ludogorets at home. Even in France they're not the best team IMO, Monaco much better even with the big gap in players name... Last year PSG got eliminated against Man City when they were at 1.45 to qualify.. Even Sevilla or Dortmund can eliminate this french team this season, I'll be more than happy to lay them in the next round if they start as favourites...

And at last, they're french and everyone who bets knows that french teams/players will eventually choke at some point.

Someone could interpret that as racist... I, however, have repeatedly been let down by France in the Six Nations betting so feel this is very true! I am still backing Barcelona to win the second leg but I'm not sure they can overturn that deficit. Barcelona under Pep possibly but not Barcelona under Enrique.

[Duuc]

What is everyone's feel on Arsenal-Bayern? I've watched both clubs for the past 3 weeks now. I think it's safe to say Arsenal is in really bad shape right now, where Bayern is high on life. The Germans are playing really well. Even though Bayern is 99.99% sure of next round, I really feel like theyre going to outplay Arsenal on every front. I just cannot see Arsenal putting up any fight, even a half decent Liverpool overran them.

Im taking Bayern win @2.3 10/10

And a cheeky bet of Bayern -1 @3.3 5/10

[vasilli07]

Arsenal to win. They will always be out of every competition by now, always lose heavily in the 1st leg of round 16 but will always win the 2nd leg. Why would they change history?

Seems like no Ozil too which is good news as he always disappear in big games.

[DrBetter]

On 5 mars 2017 02:41:03, LePapo said:

(...)

they're far from being favourites as I've read, I think Juve Madrid Bayern are stronger candidates than the french team. They couldn't even win their group stage... This PSG team can beat Barca 4-0 but can also draw against Toulouse or Ludogorets at home. Even in France they're not the best team IMO, Monaco much better even with the big gap in players name... Last year PSG got eliminated against Man City when they were at 1.45 to qualify.. Even Sevilla or Dortmund can eliminate this french team this season, I'll be more than happy to lay them in the next round if they start as favourites...

And at last, they're french and everyone who bets knows that french teams/players will eventually choke at some point.

"they're far from being favourites as I've read" Bookies, football experts, many consider PSG as a serious contender, so no, they're not "far"... Obviously you've never watched PSG played recently... or these past years... PSG is consistent and regular since years in champions league..

Last year against City, PSG played their worst match in years, it was not PSG, with a stupid sudden 3-5-2 by the coach, and Aurier and Ibra were terrible.. and still they were better than City... I'd like to point out that if PSG is not as good as you said, what to say about the level of PL teams...  PSG played many times Chelsea, when they were champions, and after, winning and qualifying at Stanford Bridge... How many teams have done that in the past? Twice btw... and against Mourinho... So who?Sevilla? Dortmund? lol...

It's been a trend you don't want to see... bit jealous? :  

They were close to qualify for semis at Barca 4 years ago, winning at Camp Nou until last minutes, very unlucky. They lost another quarter with a lucky goal of Demba Ba in the last minutes, 3 years ago after beating easily at home a huge Chelsea (3-1) who was crushing the PL. And when they were beaten by Barca in quarter 2 years ago, they had many injuries... Last year, Real Madrid, the winner, in 2 games was only able to score 1 goal to PSG, which was a huge error from the keeper Trapp... If you saw those games, you know that PSG played better, more technical, more creativity... but not scoring at the end. And this year, despite the 2 draws, PSG was far better than Arsenal on both games... you have to be blind not to see that... PSG in big games is always playing good... You'll see wednesday... I'm backing them to score twice at least... Sometimes in football, you have to see beyond a result to understand the potential of a team my friend...

So easy to say Barca played badly... if it was the case, they would have lost 1-0/2-1... but no, it was 4-0, and could have been easily 7-0... As for some bad games earlier in the season from PSG, well, show me a team who hasn't played at least one poor game among big clubs...?! There's none.. It's not even an argument... This was month ago, PSG had many chances, just bad luck... PSG had to adapt to a new style of coaching with Emery, new players, new methods, philosophy, it took time, that's why they're not leading Ligue 1, quite easy to understand right? 

Edited March 6, 2017 by DrBetter

[DrBetter]

On 5 mars 2017 02:41:03, LePapo said:

And at last, they're french and everyone who bets knows that french teams/players will eventually choke at some point.

You're just doing basic french bashing... how original.. don't worry, i'm used to it from Brits!  

But this argument.. Tell me smart ass, how is your football national team performing lately in international competitions? ... Choking at some point? 

[DrBetter]

3 hours ago, vasilli07 said:

Arsenal to win. They will always be out of every competition by now, always lose heavily in the 1st leg of round 16 but will always win the 2nd leg. Why would they change history?

Seems like no Ozil too which is good news as he always disappear in big games.

Arsenal has no reason to play this match at 100%.. They should save energy for the PL... It's Bayern, Arsenal doesn't have the players to create many chances in Bayern's defense... so backing the germans seems right here IMO...

Napoli - Real in a BTTS is tempting also...

For Dortmund-Benfica, bookies expect a lot of goals, for me it's the opposite, Benfica will park the bus, and Dortmund won't go in full attacking mode from the start, they'll be patient, to avoid an early goal against them... Mitroglu is solid, they can't take the risk of conceding a goal... I could probably back Benfica here to qualify also, but too risky... A BTTS seems a good idea here too... A under 3.5 also seems fine and safe...

Edited March 6, 2017 by DrBetter

[DrO]

I watched the first match. Benfica was completely outplayed. They only had one shot on target,from which they've scored. A pretty much lucky goal,if you ask me.
On the other hand - Borussia was excellent, completely dominated the game. Benfiika's goalkeeper has done some wonder saves and Dortmund even missed a penalty.
I have no dilemma here. I think that Borussia will win for sure.

Sorry for my bad English. 

[vasilli07]

1 hour ago, DrBetter said:

Arsenal has no reason to play this match at 100%.. They should save energy for the PL... It's Bayern, Arsenal doesn't have the players to create many chances in Bayern's defense... so backing the germans seems right here IMO...

It's at the Emirates and I think they want to win just to restore some pride and regain some confidence. It has been a tough month or so for them so losing at home again is not going to do them any good. Some reports saying Bayern may rest a few players(like Neuer and Thiago) who are suffering from knocks and injuries.

[DrBetter]

50 minutes ago, vasilli07 said:

It's at the Emirates and I think they want to win just to restore some pride and regain some confidence. It has been a tough month or so for them so losing at home again is not going to do them any good. Some reports saying Bayern may rest a few players(like Neuer and Thiago) who are suffering from knocks and injuries.

Good point... so i might stay out of this game... or an over +2.5 seems a decent bet...

[DrBetter]

1 hour ago, DrO said:

I watched the first match. Benfica was completely outplayed. They only had one shot on target,from which they've scored. A pretty much lucky goal,if you ask me.
On the other hand - Borussia was excellent, completely dominated the game. Benfiika's goalkeeper has done some wonder saves and Dortmund even missed a penalty.
I have no dilemma here. I think that Borussia will win for sure.

Sorry for my bad English. 

Yes agreed, but Dortmund defense didn't gave me tons of guarantees lately... I still remember their poor game at Darmstadt... Their attack is impressive though.. I love Dembélé since his debut in Rennes, huge talent!

But i really think Benfica will be able to score, even if they don't have many attacking solutions, but you're right, Dortmund is much better, we've seen that on the last game, and since 3 weeks in bundesliga, but they'll have to be careful though.. Tricky game too... And i forgot that Benfica lost Guedes (to PSG) who had 2 goals in CL and almost played every game before winter... So yeah there's signs of a big win for the germans, but i don't know why, Benfica is always a difficult opposition to cope with, even if they're not as strong as past years..

 

[Icongene]

Im still looking at taking Dortmund ah -1. Kicking myself as I talked myself out of the same bet v Leverkusen at the weekend.

I watched the 1st match and agree totally that Dortmund dominated this match and should have scored at least 1 or 2 goals and the (h) side were lucky to come away with a win. And I had a DnB on Benfica that night so analysed their performance closely.

Dortmund are a level above and even if Benfica score one I can see Borussia taking 3 of them. The Portuguese will definitely try and park the bus but on this stage in the Champions League Dortmund have players who will show up imo.

Edited March 6, 2017 by Icongene

[malabgd]

Arsenal v Bayern München

Arsenal: Mesut Özil (22/5 m, probably out), Santi Cazorla (8/2 m), Mohamed Elneny (12/0 m)

Bayern München: Jérôme Boateng (7/0 d), Philipp Lahm (18/1 d, suspended), Manuel Neuer (23/0 first goalkeeper, probably in)

 

SSC Napoli v Real Madrid

SSC Napoli: Tonelli (3/2 d)

Real Madrid: Coentrão (1/0 d), Varane (18/1 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[immortal--]

7 hours ago, vasilli07 said:

It's at the Emirates and I think they want to win just to restore some pride and regain some confidence. It has been a tough month or so for them so losing at home again is not going to do them any good. Some reports saying Bayern may rest a few players(like Neuer and Thiago) who are suffering from knocks and injuries.

The big question here is 'do you think they can win'?

Bayern at @2.05 is too huge for me to miss it! 5/10

[betcatalog]

Bayern are at full form, Arsenal if he wants to qualify must compete aggressively from the start, so the guests will find spaces and will be you dangerous, I expect Bayern to take second win
ARSENAL FC vs FC BAYERN MUNICH @@ BAYERN MUNICH, odds 2.35

The two teams will give everything to qualify, with Real having the first, have excellent aggressive lines while defenses are vulnerable on readily accept the goals, will go by scoring both groups
SSC NAPOLI vs REAL MADRID @@ Both team to score, odds 1.44

[vasilli07]

2 hours ago, immortal-- said:

The big question here is 'do you think they can win'?

Bayern at @2.05 is too huge for me to miss it! 5/10

Why can't they win then? Bayern has lost to Atletico and Rostov in both away games. They also merely beat PSV 2-1. 

I'm not sure if the price is as huge as you said. If Bayern is leading 2-1 or 3-1, I will go with Bayern as they may still need to win. But 5-1? All they need is probably an away goal. 

 

Edited March 7, 2017 by vasilli07

[DrBetter]

4 hours ago, Notorious said:

 

@DrBetter is clearly biased towards the French team. Bro we are here to make money not vouch for some bullshit. PSG looked magnificent against Barca, but they aren't even top 3 favorite Real Madrid, Bayern, and Athleti would all rock you guys. Juventus as well. No disrespect but your typing up novels like it's really going to matter. Barca will win the 2nd leg and psg will go through. As far as Real Madrid is concerned I hope we draw psg, you'll learn real quick what's an easy draw or not.

 

I said many times here i was a PSG fan and not entirely objective... And i've never asked anyone to trust me blindly, and always stated facts... I know we're trying to make money, that's why i'm saying PSG isn't as bad as you think, and if you had listen to me last time, you would have make money on at least a double chance for PSG, or an over1.5 for paris...  i've said before PSG-Barca that people shouldn't underestimate Paris, that they had previous record of great games. Actually, i'm trying to help people to avoid losing money by blindly betting on Barca like some did last time, and i give them facts to decide.. What are you doing beside calling me for BS when i say PSG became a serious contender...? Have you made money backing a Barca win last time?

Facts, history and previous games analysis is bullshit for you? really mate? I didn't say PSG would surely win Wednesday, i said they won't be crushed, and will score, probably more than once, since Barca is forced to play full attack with a leaky defense... How is that fiction/novels? You're as biased as me then my friend, not seeing that, i'm just saying there's some value on betting a PSG win or an PSG over 1.5 (short stake of course), as Bayern did 2 years ago after their 4-0 win.. You're backing Barca win and BTTS, but IMO, yes for BTTS, but a Barca win is risky, maybe i'm wrong, we'll see..

"Real Madrid, Bayern, and Athletico would all rock you guys. Juventus as well" > Don't think so... It's just my opinion + some facts...  You don't rock a team who crushed 4-0 Barca, that's it...

"As far as Real Madrid is concerned I hope we draw psg, you'll learn real quick what's an easy draw or not."  I hope so too... Not sure who will learn from who though..  Last times someone wish to meet PSG, they lost each time (Hi José !) ...  I still think Real is totally overrated this year (and a bit last year) and they didn't deserved to win at least one of their two last CL.. Atletico deserved to win one.. at least... And let me tell you I love Real Madrid, but Real today (last 2 months) is not really enjoying to watch, saw them against Valencia, Napoli and Celta lately, las palmas also, they're not safe to bet on either.. You obviously can't argue with that mate.. But don't worry, you'll avoid big teams in quarter like every time..     But Real-PSG would be a nice quarter though!

Edited March 7, 2017 by DrBetter

[immortal--]

7 hours ago, vasilli07 said:

Why can't they win then? Bayern has lost to Atletico and Rostov in both away games. They also merely beat PSV 2-1. 

I'm not sure if the price is as huge as you said. If Bayern is leading 2-1 or 3-1, I will go with Bayern as they may still need to win. But 5-1? All they need is probably an away goal. 

 

Because when u have just %30 ball possession u need to defend very well, but Arsenal can't defend... Arsenal is out of form, on other hand Bayern is in superb form. Yes, they won the first match and have big advantage, but they are germans... Ozil is out too.

How many times these year you can double your money if you take Bayern win?

[vasilli07]

1 hour ago, immortal-- said:

Because when u have just %30 ball possession u need to defend very well, but Arsenal can't defend... Arsenal is out of form, on other hand Bayern is in superb form. Yes, they won the first match and have big advantage, but they are germans... Ozil is out too.

How many times these year you can double your money if you take Bayern win?

I guess we have to disagree then. With such a big lead, teams will be playing not to lose or lose big rather than trying their 101% to win.

Bayern has never done the double against Arsenal too. Pep Guardiola failed twice and even the great Jupp Heyckes whose Bayern thrashed Barca 7-0 on aggregate failed in 12/13 too.

[discipline]

Napoli to win @ 3.00

With no important absences for Napoli (just Tonelli) and this being game of the year for the club and the whole city, I'm taking a shot at this. Recent Real performances against Valencia and Villarreal (although they rallied back to win) have shown that they are far from being unbeatable. Today they are playing in front of 60,000 passionate Southern Italian fans whose noise will be deafening. Especially when they'll be jeering every time a Real player touches the ball. Certainly a lot different than the boring Spanish fans. I know, Real in CL are a different animal, but Napoli also have a great record at home. Bayern, Manchester City, Chelsea, Dortmund, Arsenal were all there and couldn't win. 

[discipline]

You do know that this is a betting forum and not the comment section on facebook, right?

Edited March 7, 2017 by discipline

[DrBetter]

23 minutes ago, Notorious said:

Deserved this deserved that Real Madrid are the Kings of Europe. b2b Champions leagues about to be served. Keep hating your blind bro, typing up novels vouching for psg, but tossing a title won by a club out the window for being un "deserved" lmao. You do realize at the end of the day trophies won is what counts, psg so far have won what exactly?? And i'm not trying to hate on them Cavani has for me been the best striker in Europe. You don't have to be a fan you are clearly hitched to there bandwagon.

Dude... don't be angry... We're here to trade infos, personal opinions about a club, a game, the goal is to argue... and therefore I gave a long opinion on why to back PSG.. You're not forced to follow me, please, at least be polite and respectful with the opinion of others... Even if sometimes, they're lacking of objectivity, if you kept an eye on my betting record, you know i'm no blind.....

As I know that i'm surely the only one on the forum to have seen every match of PSG this year, (and since childhood), i can gave pretty good feedbacks IMO, trying to be as objective as i can...

"Keep hating" wtf? hate? where? Have i missed something?

"tossing a title won by a club out the window for being un "deserved" lmao"  > Lots of people said Real didn't deserved at least one of the titles, that they had an easy way to the final... I'm not original here, not inventing anything, just stating my opinion shared by a few people... So, stop there bro... Share the love instead!

"Naples will bow down to the Kings of Europe" > Yes sure... They'll bow, as everyone of us should do i suppose.. lmao... ;-) No arm bro.. 

Glad you like Cavani! 

 

Edited March 7, 2017 by DrBetter

[discipline]

5 minutes ago, Notorious said:

Totally agreed. Comment section of fb would post about napoli winning, not a betting forum working on making money playboy. Napoli have no defense. 3-1 Real Madrid

No, comment section on Facebook would be idiot fanboys shooting their mouths off.