Week > Feb 21st - 26th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Only just been able to get the odds and ratings for the Tuesday game this week so putting it in with next weekend's fixtures and just covering it across the whole week as opposed to dedicating a whole thread to one game.

Really loving the Ligue 1 interaction at the moment. Dropped points for three of the top five teams put spanners in a lot of bets last weekend.

@DrBetter, brilliant point about every team Zlatan leaves wins the Champions League the following season. Haha. The 4-0 win over Bayern Munich during the week gave that point backing but then the expected dropped points against Toulouse also suggest it might be harder in the league for them if they want European glory too.

@Tanktop and @Icongene, you both lapped up the Nice price and rightly so. What a tip that was! What are you thinking here? Nice lower at 1.85 this week but still an attractive price at home.

@FCNA and @Pep004, our resident Nantes tipsters. What do you think this weekend? Home to Dijon. Has to be a win surely?

@sajtion, mixed results for you this weekend but always keen to hear your thoughts.

@hairline, always look forward to your views before the games. What are you tipping this week?

Also, a quick question. Due to the growing popularity of the Ligue 1 section, would you guys want us expanding the odds availability to Ligue 2 as well? We can add it to this section every week if the demand is there.

[Pep004]

This club is far from stable, so I wouldn't be so sure. They need to show some consistency for now. They are playing fine, but finishing is still a problem. Dijon with Tavares, Diony and Abeid.. they can be dangerous. In start were above 2, now on 1.8.. far from valuable.

 

p.s. Poor Favre. Plea out for the rest of the season.  

[StevieDay1983]

I think I'll be keeping a keen eye on the European matches tonight and tomorrow before making any firm considerations. The St Etienne game against Manchester United is a big one for me. How will they play tonight and how will their body language be at full time? They have Caen at home on the weekend. A positive performance tonight and they will be relishing that game. A poor performance and it will be hard for them to pick themselves up.

[malabgd]

OGC Nice v Montpellier HSC

OGC Nice: Sarr (23/1 d), Ricardo (16/1 d), Plea (25/11 f, top scorer), Balotelli (14/9 f, 2nd top scorer, suspended), Boscagli (1/0 d)

Montpellier HSC: Ninga (9/5 f), Marveaux (7/0 m), Ikoné (4/0 m), Rémy (15/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

[Magic0024]

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Ligue 1 games:

Nice have won 77% of their home matches this season.
Lorient have won 8% of their home games in Ligue 1 this season.

You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-24-02-2017

[StevieDay1983]

A bit unusually quiet in here this week. Have last weekend's results put everybody in a sour mood and wary about betting on Ligue 1 this weekend? 

[Pep004]

With missing three important midfielders, I think that DIjon will have problems with buildup tonight, specially because of high pressing of Nantes and I strongly believe that win will stay at home. Whole analysis here.

@StevieDay1983.. I am not sure about St. Etienne. I think that they feel the chance to fight for 4th place and that they will fight for it, moreover Caen is really really poor team. I still think that Lorient (last on the league table) will be higher positioned than Caen. 

p.s.: Matches in this round aren't that interesting to me. Monaco going to Bretagne after collapse in Manchester, (but I will look up this match tomorrow in the morning) Lyon at home with low (correct) odds, while there are two derbies Rennes - Lorient (analysis here) + Clasico between OM and PSG. Tough round tho.  Besides.. I think that Lille could beat Bordeaux, odds are pretty nice, but I will wait for last informations about weekend matches.

It's funny fact, but many times rounds like this, when you are saying to yourself "ugh, tough round..." are most profitable.  

Edited February 24, 2017 by Pep004

[Icongene]

I have backed home wins for both Nantes and Nice tonight.

Nice were available @2.1 so can't turn that down given their excellent home form despite missing a couple of attacking options I still see value here. The visitors have had 2 good results but the 1st, V St Etienne was a little lucky due to a red card changing an otherwise even game. I think Nice bring more quality at home and will be too strong.

Dijon with injuries and a very poor defence that Nantes can exploit. 

Edited February 24, 2017 by Icongene

[Sir Puntalot]

It's an obvious bet, or maybe not after the collapse in CL, but I can't see anything but a Monaco win at Guingamp. Solidly ahead on the ratings and I just don't think Guingamp have enough firepower to trouble them.

Monaco Win @ 1.75 Coral

[DrBetter]

On 20 février 2017 14:24:04, StevieDay1983 said:

 

@DrBetter, brilliant point about every team Zlatan leaves wins the Champions League the following season. Haha. The 4-0 win over Bayern Munich during the week gave that point backing but then the expected dropped points against Toulouse also suggest it might be harder in the league for them if they want European glory too.

 

Bayern? You sure? ;-) what can I say, i'm blind... totally in love with this team since childhood and the great Rai, Weah and Ronaldinho...

These players are just awesome, i'm falling in love with Draxler, and Marco Verratti walks among gods and should start a religion... The Verratism... sounds good? hell yeah! This guy is just 10 times better than a pogba, watching him play is like watching the birth of football... As you can see i'm perfectly objective here...

 

For this week end, i'm of course backing a win of PSG at Marseille, no doubt for me... I've luckily predicted correctly the 3-0 at Bordeaux last time, and again, i'm backing a 3-0 or 3-1 win for PSG this time... The defense of marseille is a joke, of course on one match, with the "derby" atmosphere, marseille players are able to play like mad dogs, but PSG is so much above... Plus if PSG sometimes struggle against small teams who park the bus like toulouse, against attacking/playing teams like Garcia's marseille, the'll have no chance against PSG's attack...

> A better bet here could be Both Team To Score

 

I'm also backing St-Etienne against Caen, like "Les Verts", Caen also played in midweek, winning a poor match at nancy, but St Etienne will (IMO) have no trouble beating this normandy team which has a lot of injuries, and since the recent win, i think they'll let go a bit of motivation away on a good team, to concentrate on the next week match against a direct opponent, like  Angers at home...

Edited February 25, 2017 by DrBetter

[malabgd]

Guingamp v AS Monaco

Guingamp: Privat (13/2 f), Lemaître (0/0 d), Martins-Pereira (9/0 d, suspended), Sankoh (12/0 d), Levêque (2/0 d)

AS Monaco: Mendy (17/0 d), Raggi (9/0 d) (both suspended), Boschilia (11/6 m)

 

Lille OSC v Girondins Bordeaux

Lille OSC: Soumaoro (23/0 d), Bissouma (13/1 m) (both suspended)

Girondins Bordeaux: Touré (6/0 f), Poundjé (7/0 d), Sabaly (21/0 d), Rolan (20/5 f, 2nd top scorer), Traoré (6/0 m), Prior (14/0 g)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[FCNA]

Coming in afternoon as usual. For sure, my mood is on top after a convincing victory yesterday

[Pep004]

Unfortunately we drop 2 points in Metz, but with little bit of constancy in next rounds, 8th place is reachable! With Nakoulma our attack is stronger, and I like the fact that Conceicao shown Harit, that he will need to work to come back in the lineup as well. He is a wonderboy of this team, but he is not a star player, and that was his problem under Girard. Unbelievable technique, ball control, but taking too many bad decisions.. yeah, I'm really positive about Sergio's Nantes.

p.s. As I said I will take a look of Guingamp - Monaco today, and after analysis I decided to go with Monaco, even though it's not my type of bet. They need to bounce back, PSG is playing in Marseille tomorrow, Nice have already won the match, so it will be a very important match for Monaco. Whole analysis here.

Edited February 25, 2017 by Pep004

[DrBetter]

6 hours ago, FCNA said:

Coming in afternoon as usual. For sure, my mood is on top after a convincing victory yesterday

Glad to see Nantes back on track..! Good match yesterday!!

[Icongene]

Monaco have gone as high as 1.91.

Can't be ignoring that so have backed them last minute.

[hairline]

Also last minute bet Monaco win + both to score @3.4 in my local, seems valuable.

Edited February 25, 2017 by hairline

[FCNA]

Guingamp vs Monaco Away win, Monaco O1.5

Sorry, surely too late to place a bet. If Monaco play at their level, Guingamp is not able to resist. Monaco is on top, defeat on wednesday is not important, they will go on.

Nancy vs TFC TFC+0.5

Hard situation and hard serie for Nancy even at home. On the other hand, back of confidence for TFC since the arrival of Delort, and a good mercato. Draw in PSG was not a hazard or a backlash after Barça. More risky bets : away win, Andy Delort any time scorer.

Angers vs Bastia Home win

A current good run for Angers specialy at home, Bastia is well known to be very poor away. Tensions in Bastia are great : fans demand the head of the coach, players critizise each other... They will play again on 1st of march at home against Nantes, maybe they will focus on these instead of Angers.

Rennes vs Lorient BTS

Obviously, I wait more for a Lorient's goal than Rennes... We've seen and explained that since the left of Grosicky and N'Tep, add to Gourcuff's injury, results are poor (no victory since 4th of december). Nevertheless, it's a derby in Bretagne and both teams will fight and score.

Lyon vs Metz Home Win, Handicap, Lyon O1.5, Lyon O2.5

Back in track for Lyon ? More than a tennis result on thursday against AZ, but is it a reference ? Nevertheless, it's a double result good for confidence and Lyon has something to prove against Metz after the incidents of first wing (match interrupted after serious incidents of Metz'fans, match has to be played again).

ASSE vs Caen Home win

Les Verts too much tender against The Reds, but it will enough against this team of Caen especially at home.

 

Good luck

[StevieDay1983]

21 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

It's an obvious bet, or maybe not after the collapse in CL, but I can't see anything but a Monaco win at Guingamp. Solidly ahead on the ratings and I just don't think Guingamp have enough firepower to trouble them.

Monaco Win @ 1.75 Coral

A 2-1 win but never in doubt really. I think Monaco will take some beating this season now. Their attack is incredible and the opposition front lines in Ligue 1 will not carve open their defence as easily as Manchester City did. PSG being the only possible exception.

[FCNA]

A red card for captain Cahuzac (Bastia), what a surprise !

4 since the beginning of season.

3 in 4 matches

10 since season 2013/2014

An absolute record. Bastia didn't exist tonigh as predicted.

Don't write this to make my Superman, just to tell you that match against Nantes on wednesday night may be easy to predict

[Icongene]

St Etienne are as high as 1.80 to beat Caen. Very tempting as they are big favourites for me. Caen awful on the road also.

[KikoCy]

Indeed, I have to back St Etienne too.

Price up to 1.85 though now, a bit strange.

- Caen 1 win on the road this season

- ASSE won 4 of last 6

- ASSE only lost to Nice at home back in December

- They rested players in Europa vs United

Now... why is the price rising?

 

PSG @ 1.615 also tempting considering they need to keep up with Monaco and Nice despite playing away vs Marseille.

Marseille win 69% of home games, PSG 69% of away games.

Even the meaningless H2H has PSG winning all games.

These two are definitely on my radar, but Marseille's home form is off-putting; PSG should be priced at 1.80 IMO.

edit: The OVER 2.5 for Marseille - PSG @ 1.80 will be my pick.

Marseille - PSG O2.5 @ 1.80

ASSE - Caen 1 @ 1.85

Edited February 26, 2017 by KikoCy
clarified picks :)

[Pep004]

11 hours ago, FCNA said:

A red card for captain Cahuzac (Bastia), what a surprise !

4 since the beginning of season.

3 in 4 matches

10 since season 2013/2014

An absolute record. Bastia didn't exist tonigh as predicted.

Don't write this to make my Superman, just to tell you that match against Nantes on wednesday night may be easy to predict

He was not even on the pitch this time.  Besides.. the only problem of Bastia is their catastrophic pitch.. I think that even (old) Barcelona would have problems to control the ball there.. ball is bouncing like if they are playing on rally circuit.

[StevieDay1983]

Huge pressure on PSG to get something away to Marseille tonight after Nice and Monaco both grabbed wins this weekend. Do we think the added pressure will affect the result? Will PSG falter or will they rise to the demands?

[Pep004]

There is many doubtful players in OM, I don't know why exactly, but more and more I have feeling, that OM will have big problems today. Besides after checking last updates, I decided to skip St. Etienne match, even if odds looks valuable, they will miss so many important players, including Hamouma and without him their attacking line is totally different. I even prefer to bet on Caen not to score than St. Etienne 1 here, or maybe win to nil, just to catch higher odds... 

Even if I lost on last time with Lyon 1st half, I am going with them again. They are simply too good and I don't believe that they can miss everything they missed against Dijon in first half. Their first halves are strong normally, and without Diabate in lineup of Metz, I think that they have one big problem less, as they have problems with covering tall players (Tavares of Dijon)...

Lyon vs Metz

Besides... yesterday it looked that I will have finally a good weekend, and I didn't see the match, but I can not believe what Lille did again. Having 2-1 and than losing 2-3, while Lorient disappointed me again. Looks that I trust this match too much...

Edited February 26, 2017 by Pep004

[Icongene]

Nice call on Etienne @Pep004 

They were very, very poor today. The amount of unforced errors, over hit passes, poor control etc was ridiculous and I agree they missed Hamouma a lot. 

Beric who came in at CF was really bad, no hold up play, no clever runs, no harassing defenders and caught offside lots before missing a clear cut chance and being subbed.

The plan too often for St Etienne when things aren't going their way is to simply give it to Monnet Paquet and hope for the best (which never happens). I think to play at their best offensively Paquet and Hamouma must play otherwise they are toothless with very little creative intelligence.

[DrBetter]

11 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Huge pressure on PSG to get something away to Marseille tonight after Nice and Monaco both grabbed wins this weekend. Do we think the added pressure will affect the result? Will PSG falter or will they rise to the demands?

60 min so far.. 4-0 .. Impressive match... Now i'm sure you're being convert to my unwavering faith in this team, the process will be complete after next champions league game at the camp nou 

Edited February 26, 2017 by DrBetter

[DrBetter]

Nice call by the way to avoid St Etienne.. They've lost me my big acca of the week end... and as usual, only one match makes me loose... So frustrating, how could they be so poor against Caen.. Grrr.. 

[Icongene]

The thing is, Caen could have score one or two more. Marseille utterly pathetic in defence tonight.

[Pep004]

I don't want to hail Emery to much, but.. tactics again OM was brilliant. They remind me of Barca 2008-2012. If you are playing offensive, without special focus on defence, you will concede bunch of goals. Toulouse stopped them with ultra defensive style, but OM tried to play with them. It sounds funny, but Barca will need to attack.. ah-1 on psg sounds crazy, but interesting.