Hand Analysis please guys :) Folding AKs in SB v BU

[LIKE2FISH]

AKs fold in SB v BU 7x! (1/3+ of Villians stack) 9 left 5 paid. 11 Euro MTT, 1k in Prizepool 

Would you play this different? I fold AhKh in the SB is because I feel why get it in behind as I put the villian on a pair, the only hand I beat is 2s without the heart when I run it on the calculator and that is only 49.77% v 49.60% & and 0.63% tie! every other pair is slightly ahead and the guy makes a huge raise that surely he can not fold to a 3bet shove.

Thanks in advance for any reviews  

Seat 9 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 39486 ) - VPIP: 25, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 2.9, Hands: 130
Seat 2: Player2 ( 49844 ) - VPIP: 45, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 71
Seat 3: Player3 ( 27528 ) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 3.0, Hands: 225
Seat 4: Player4 ( 21088 ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 8, 3B: 8, AF: 1.3, Hands: 123
Seat 5: Player5 ( 90518 ) - VPIP: 29, PFR: 22, 3B: 3, AF: 1.2, Hands: 100
Seat 6: Player6 ( 21744 ) - VPIP: 11, PFR: 8, 3B: 10, AF: 0.0, Hands: 38
Seat 8: Player8 ( 19680 ) - VPIP: 7, PFR: 7, 3B: 13, AF: 0.0, Hands: 14
Seat 9: Player9 ( 29096 ) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 4.0, Hands: 105
Seat 10: Hero ( 25016 ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 3.2, Hands: 2338
Hero posts ante of [160].
Player1 posts ante of [160].
Player2 posts ante of [160].
Player3 posts ante of [160].
Player4 posts ante of [160].
Player5 posts ante of [160].
Player6 posts ante of [160].
Player8 posts ante of [160].
Player9 posts ante of [160].
Hero posts small blind [800].
Player1 posts big blind [1600].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Kh Ah ]
Player2 folds
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Player5 folds
Player6 folds
Player8 folds
Player9 raises [11200]
Hero folds
Player1 folds
Player9 wins 15040 from main pot

[muttley]

I move all in 95% of the time. The 5% is when I have a big read on my opponent that he only does this with a monster (KK+), or if I believe that I have a HUGE edge over the other players and/or, say, in a satellite where we are near to the bubble.

I sometimes make this move. I call it "the non-all-in all-in". You're right that he isn't folding, but that doesn't mean he has a monster. I would never do this with QQ+ or AK from the button, because I'd want to give someone the chance to jam over my raise. I'm basically doing it with a hand that I'd happily call an all-in with, but don't mind a fold. So JJ-88, AJ+ for sure. I would include smaller pairs and weaker Aces if I was facing unknowns and my image was tight. Hands like 22-66 and Ax suited are either open jams or min-raise/fold, depending on my image.

The general rule of thumb when you see this "non-all-in all-in" is that weak players do it with the top of their range and strong players are much wider and may or may not include their monsters.

In this case you are calling off 24216 to win 52432 (assuming a) BB never calls and b) OR never folds), which means you need 46% equity. Against a tight range of TT+, AKo you are only getting 43.4%, but if you exclude KK+, you are getting 48.9%. If he's doing this with 99+, AJ+ then you are now 55.5% favourite (easy call), and if you discount AA and KK you are getting nearly 60%!

In short, I don't think calling is ever a big mistake, except on the bubble in a satellite. It is a mistake to fold against most players though.

Edited February 16, 2017 by muttley

[LIKE2FISH]

Cheers for the in depth and brilliant analysis, my mate who I discuss hands said shove Pre and I wanted a 2nd opinion off one of you guys who play reg and  know their stuff

Would you ever do the stop and go in this scenario?

[muttley]

3 hours ago, LIKE2FISH said:

 

Would you ever do the stop and go in this scenario?

No. You're putting too much in to fold, and your fold equity is negligible on almost any flop. At 15bb deep your AK is premium. If he has AA then so what? You were calling an open jam anyway.

[Danshot]

Yeah you are still too far away from even a min-cash to fold this spot , AK is a massive hand with these stacks I would feel confident getting it in good here and expect AQ and even KQs to be turned over enough to give you a pretty sizeable +EV spot 

[repton3]

I think I'd be shoving all day long.

I wouldn't say villain is never folding here. It might only be a small % chance he folds but he still could. I've seen it happen before. There must be some % chance it's some kind of misclick/mistype and he's accidentally bet too much, and also some % chance he's just a bad player with some weird logic and tries the large raise as a steal then folds his bad hand to a raise.  This combined with the EV figures above where you're often +EV and only sometimes slightly -EV means I couldn't see any other option. Plus I'm a fish