Weekend > Feb 25th - 27th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

It's a little wait before the next round of Premier League games. We have to get through the Champions League and Europa League matches this week. Plus, there is the FA Cup this coming weekend. So you might want to wait a bit before getting your bets on. However, that doesn't mean we can't start the chat right now!

@andrewcalo, we will start with you mate. None of us were particularly surprised by your side's win over Leicester. It could have been a couple goals more as well. Massive challenge this round with Chelsea away. Can you nick a point? Or is it a damage-limitation exercise?

@Mindfulness, another missed opportunity to pick up points. Only off the bottom on goal difference. How is the mood at Selhurst Park? Is this game against Middlesbrough a must-win?

@WinningAdvice, unlucky on the over 3.00 goals not being scored. I felt maybe if Bournemouth had threatened more then Man City might have punished them more. It seemed they were happy to sit on the 2-0 lead. What are you looking at this round?

@Bronxie, great to have you involved in the chat this past week. What is standing out for you in these games?

@sajtion, your thoughts on Sunderland in the Premier League is reflected by everyone except Sunderland fans I think! Wasting a space in the top flight. I don't mind their fans but the club is never going places under the current set-up and repeatedly screw up bets! Anyone fancy them away to Everton?

@Icongene, always look forward to reading your well-thought comments on here. What are your thoughts on these matches?

@Bett, you've said you're a fan of the early games. None of the Saturday but what have you got in mind for Tottenham versus Stoke on the Sunday?

@KikoCy, cheers for posting the team news. Helped me with my betting and fantasy football in one fell swoop! Could you post that again closer to these games please? What about your bets? Got any lined up or under consideration?

@neilovan, Hull let you down but you were wisely aware of Everton's possible banana skin. Looking at any bets here?

@allyhibs, spot on with the Stoke call mate. Which results are you picking out this round?

@Feduloff, great to see you getting involved again. You were screwed by the Sunderland inconsistency. Never trust them. Betting on these games?

@betcatalog, it was a rare off-week for you last weekend. You must surely be keen to make amends this week?

@vasilli07, you called that Swansea win early on! Betting against Leicester again this round?

@Masih, always brilliant to see a new face. Would love to hear your predictions again after you got a few scores bang on last weekend.

@mrclubbie, your faith in Burnley was understandable and it was a very tough game for Chelsea. What is your pick this round?

@DrBetter, you were also rightly cautious on some games but it all turned out ok in the end, more or less. What are your thoughts on this round of action?

[andrewcalo]

@StevieDay1983 From this weeks Guardian online:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/feb/13/premier-league-10-talking-points-from-weekend-action

"3) Chelsea can take a leaf from F1’s professor

They used to call Alain Prost “The Professor”, particularly when set against his more flamboyant and risk-taking rival Ayrton Senna. Whereas Senna would try to win every race, Prost just did what was necessary: if he required five points from a race, then he’d get himself in the position for those five points and defend them like a town trying to repel a siege. Chelsea can be similar for the rest of the season, having now established a 10-point lead at the top of the Premier League, with a set of nominal challengers that are far too inconsistent to catch them. Therefore, Sunday’s 1-1 draw at Burnley represents an excellent result, rather than the “disappointment” Conte was almost obliged to declare it afterwards. Not just because Burnley have the fourth-best home record in the league, but because of the fearful barrage Chelsea took at Turf Moor, from both the elements and various flailing Claret limbs: that they withstood it only underlines their status as the best team in the league. Nick Miller"

 

You look at Chelsea's last few games, Man City and Man U are losable, Everton, Stoke and and West Brom potential banana skins.  So is Conte gonna be minded to be wary of Swansea? Lest he lose three points? hmmh...nope. He wants the win there and at home he'll tell his team to keep going and make sure they win.

 

We'll take a leaf out of Burnley's book, but really, Leicester's finishing was poor on Saturday and there are still holes in our Defence. We are a long way from safe yet.

A tight game and probably 1-0 or 2-1 Chelsea. 

Outside chance of a 0-0 or 1-0 us.

Edited February 14, 2017 by andrewcalo

[vasilli07]

I think it's time for Crystal Palace to start picking up the points. Without any cup distraction for this week, Big Sam will have alot more time to work with his team. Boro is another boring team and always playing not to lose. For some strange reason, they aren't getting any attention despite being winless for 8 games. Palace to win and make Boro winless run extend to 2 months.

 

[WinningAdvice]

On 2/14/2017, 6:05:43, StevieDay1983 said:

@WinningAdvice, unlucky on the over 3.00 goals not being scored. I felt maybe if Bournemouth had threatened more then Man City might have punished them more. It seemed they were happy to sit on the 2-0 lead. What are you looking at this round?

Agreed! Man City played it safe and chose to strengthen their defence than score more goals. Of course it was pretty much the correct thing to do. Just unlucky for me.

[sajtion]

easy chelsea, everton, hull, west brom

[Pep004]

I am wondering if there will be any consequences for Tottenham. When I saw the lineup I thought that they will kill them, but Gent surprised. I believe that injury of Vertonghen changed a lot, but still.. 

[StevieDay1983]

The side Tottenham play in the Europa League this Thursday will tell us everything about their priorities this season. If they play a weakened side then I fully expect them to smash Stoke on Sunday.

[andrewcalo]

Hull and Burnley should end up drawing, it's a Championship side recently-promoted thing.

I like Swansea at that price, double chance.

As always, I'm looking for draws this week. Palace Middlesbrough and Watford West Ham could both tie.

Edited February 23, 2017 by andrewcalo

[StevieDay1983]

Interested to hear what @Mindfulness will say but I wouldn't back Palace to win a race to the toilet right now.

[Icongene]

Palace v Boro has a draw written all over it for me.

[allyhibs]

Has to be West Brom for me this week. Solid home form against a Bournemouth side that look to be in freefall. The price has gone now but i got on early this week. West Brom at 23/20 has a wee bit of value imo.

[KikoCy]

@allyhibs spot on, I am also tailing West Brom.

 

Accompanied by Everton -1.5AH @ 2.16 -> when they win they win big.

Everton win to nil is around 2.375 as well but Defoe has a habit of popping up.

Again, comes down to if Koeman sticks with 3 at the back.

Lukaku also back so that's a positive for goals.

I don't really fancy anything else in EPL or even England.

 

Maybe Fleetwood/Doncaster but Doncaster shat the bed the last time I bet on them.

[Magic0024]

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Premier League games:

West Bromwich Albion have won 71% of their last 7 home games by more than 1 goal.
Bournemouth have lost 71% of their last 7 away games by 2 goals or more.

You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-24-02-2017

[Mindfulness]

19 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Interested to hear what @Mindfulness will say but I wouldn't back Palace to win a race to the toilet right now.

I don't think I'm going to be able to shed much light on Palace V Middlesbrough game tbh mate. Both teams have been pathetic for a while now although I must be fair and say Palace have been one of the most consistently pathetic teams in English league football for over a year.

I guess everyone is saying this one will be a draw as it's almost impossible to visualise either team winning a game of football. I will cite the infamous 'two team repel theory' which was mentioned in passing on this forum many moons ago, can't remember who it was but always makes me laugh for some reason.

My gut feelings tell me Palace will win tommorow:

Which leads me to the next statement: DO NOT BET ON PALACE HERE!!! The price does not support such a ridiculous move. To back Palace in this situation you would need full draw cover approaching EVS imo.

It's a no bet for me with the prices as they are but as Robbie Savage would say: 'It's just my opinion, just my opinion'.

[StevieDay1983]

42 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

I don't think I'm going to be able to shed much light on Palace V Middlesbrough game tbh mate. Both teams have been pathetic for a while now although I must be fair and say Palace have been one of the most consistently pathetic teams in English league football for over a year.

I guess everyone is saying this one will be a draw as it's almost impossible to visualise either team winning a game of football. I will cite the infamous 'two team repel theory' which was mentioned in passing on this forum many moons ago, can't remember who it was but always makes me laugh for some reason.

My gut feelings tell me Palace will win tommorow:

Which leads me to the next statement: DO NOT BET ON PALACE HERE!!! The price does not support such a ridiculous move. To back Palace in this situation you would need full draw cover approaching EVS imo.

It's a no bet for me with the prices as they are but as Robbie Savage would say: 'It's just my opinion, just my opinion'.

Brilliant! I was actually thinking that a 0-0 or 1-1 would be most realistic. In the Championship, Middlesbrough built their squad on a solid defence. Now that the defence has been breached repeatedly Karanka is at a loss. They needed to invest in that defence a lot more. Or at least sign defensive minded midfield players to protect the back-line. Look at Burnley. They signed Steven Defour, Jeff Hendrick, and Ashley Westwood. They didn't tear up trees but it's worked well for them. In contrast, Middlesbrough signed Adlene Guedioura and Fabio as their only defensive-minded players. Yet they brought in nine attack-minded players. Bringing in Brad Guzan and Victor Valdes was wise but a keeper is only as good as his defence.

[mrclubbie]

So finally Leicester sacked their manager Ranieri, not too sure how will that stop the rot at the club actually. Who will be bold enough to take over the ruins...

[mrclubbie]

Burnley will be playing 4 straight EPL away matches (Hull, Swansea, Liverpool, Sunderland) - Ever wonder if they will throw away 12 points in a row ?

[StevieDay1983]

2 minutes ago, mrclubbie said:

Burnley will be playing 4 straight EPL away matches (Hull, Swansea, Liverpool, Sunderland) - Ever wonder if they will throw away 12 points in a row ?

I think they will do very well to take 5 points from those games. Hull and Swansea are finding form under new managers. Liverpool should sort themselves out by then. Sunderland are a tough one but Burnley should take something from it. They simply can't afford to lose four games in a row. Dyche will be looking for a big reaction after that Lincoln City debacle but they will do well to get a point against Hull City.

[mrclubbie]

As for this week, nothing much from me.

But I am just looking at whether Tottenham will go over 2.5/2.75 or not.

Tottenham-Stoke past 8 encounters produced a total of 25 goals.

Edited February 24, 2017 by mrclubbie

[andrewcalo]

4 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

two team repel theory

Pray tell!

[Mindfulness]

1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

Pray tell!

FFS! Just wrote a long post on this and my internet broke.

Basically it was this crazy theory about how teams with similar characteristics repel each other. For example; two very underish teams play each other then it's bound to be overs. Personally I can't take the theory seriously as I doubt there are any metrics for it. Just sticks in my mind for some reason.

[andrewcalo]

1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:

FFS! Just wrote a long post on this and my internet broke.

Basically it was this crazy theory about how teams with similar characteristics repel each other. For example; two very underish teams play each other then it's bound to be overs. Personally I can't take the theory seriously as I doubt there are any metrics for it. Just sticks in my mind for some reason.

Sticky keys lol just saying...

[Mindfulness]

[betcatalog]

Chelsea whole league has 15 to 25 over 2,5 and 10 to 12 over 2,5 in front of the audience. Swansea has the worst category with 54 goals in 25 games, which receives more than two goals per game average. The defense justifies 19 to 25 over 2,5 and 9 to 12 over 2,5 away.
CHELSEA FC vs SWANSEA CITY @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.65

[StevieDay1983]

16 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

FFS! Just wrote a long post on this and my internet broke.

Basically it was this crazy theory about how teams with similar characteristics repel each other. For example; two very underish teams play each other then it's bound to be overs. Personally I can't take the theory seriously as I doubt there are any metrics for it. Just sticks in my mind for some reason.

It's essentially sod's law. You bet on the outcome that seems certain to happen and the complete opposite happens. So basically we are all agreeing that Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough are going to fight out a 5-5 draw?

[Mindfulness]

9 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

It's essentially sod's law. You bet on the outcome that seems certain to happen and the complete opposite happens. So basically we are all agreeing that Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough are going to fight out a 5-5 draw?

Almost, TTR logic would suggest there will definately be a winner from Palace V Middlesbrough and it will be a high scoring game

[StevieDay1983]

6 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

Almost, TTR logic would suggest there will definately be a winner from Palace V Middlesbrough and it will be a high scoring game

Haha, 5-4 win for Palace then! Come on, @Mindfulness, you can do iiit!

[Division]

West Brom are my value pick this weekend. Quite a tricky weekend so would definitely advise sticking to singles.

[DrBetter]

ah PL is finally back... it was about time! Tough week this one. @betcatalog good point above (again ;-)).. I'd love to follow you on this, and i would combined it with West Brom in a draw no bet. I would also go on Everton combined with a Liverpool win monday... don't like monday's match, but i've a good feeling about Liverpool, I don't see Leicester even catch a draw or even score... It would be better to go on a draw no bet on this one, but i'll pass and follow my gut, Liverpool is gonna do a hell of a match, and this time Schmeichel won't be able to stop everything like in Sevilla!

So 2 combined bets, and a very good feeling about both, which is usually a bad sign (and agreed, Defoe scares too each time i'm betting against sunderland):

> Chelsea-Swansea 2,5 Over + West Brom Draw no bet. Total odds: 2,2

> Win Everton + Win Liverpool. Total odds: 2,2