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CzechPunter

February 13 - February 19

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all of this week finalists are playing next week. gasquet zverev dimitrov and goffin are playing in rotterdam and lorenzi and estrella burgos in buenos aires. as rotterdam is a 500 tournament there will be no byes in first round. in buenos aires there are four byes but just to the main 4 seeds but none of them is. so matches will be played on tuesday at last i think. what's more all of these players have started as favourites. 

zverev / thiem

gasquet / troicki 

goffin / kuznetsov 

dimitrov/ zverev mischa

estrella / monteiro

lorenzi / melzer gerald

gasquet is known for struggling after having played a final the week before and troicki is a decent player odds on him seems quite high given the circumstances. (h2h is 2-2) 

monteiro seems an interesting option as well. hes facing estrella burgos who will play quito final later and then will have to head to buenos aires to play. flight is around 7 hours from quito to buenos aires. so he'll be a bit tight with time. also conditions are different, ball flies in quito and this conditions clearly suit EB as he has an excellent record in quito, while buenos aires is more like a normal clay court, slow ball long rallies and after playing a lot this week it should be interesting to know what he has left in the tank ... same can be applied to lorenzi

thiem seems a viable option too. opens as an underdog against zverev who is playing both finals today. 

these matches are interesting to analyse further and given this week finalist are all favourites in their matches i think there's a good chance to have one or two underdog winners in the first round. if not, keeping an eye on them this week might give some profitable results too. 

good luck for this week

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3 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

you should start posting yourself, I'm sure you've got some fine tips :ok.

I have been working hard the last six months on something for beach volleyball.... although it's definitely profitable I need more testing and data before I am comfortable to share the risk/reward with others ;)

Tennis I have no expertise, I just appreciate the sport and a lot of the competitive aspects actually match with beach volleyball. I'm sorry I can't offer something of value to this particular forum but I do appreciate the posts and hopefully I will have something profitable to share in the near future :)

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On 2/12/2017, 4:08:04, CzechPunter said:

TennisThread.png

I like your school of thought relating to this match which seems acceptable and quite reasonable, except for a few spikes that stand out which may or may not make sense to anyone judging on where I am coming from.

The suggestion of Albot being a much weaker opponent than Goffin is certainly stating the obvious; however, what is not clearly discernable is the suggestion that Albot was gifted a set, where one can even argue that on the contrary, it is a sign of him starting to be progressive again. Also the H2H between Darcis and Albot reads 1-0 Darcis(6-4  7-6)... tells a story of Albot not really being a routine opponent for Darcis.

With Albot clearly on the rise in my opinion, I will expect him to better that H2H performance where he even covered the handicap. He will also be aware of how good he is beginning to play having got a set of Goffin(gifted or earned). I am a strong believer in the notion that the odds always determine the outcome of every match depending on one's ability to comprehend and monitor the odds process.(quite profound and disturbingly revealing) At 3/10, a cloud certainly hangs over the head of Darcis. I am not 100 percent certain he will lose, but I am quite confident that Albot will rise to the Challenge and win a set and possibly more, making it very difficult for the handicap to be covered. Good luck all!!

Edited by liquidglass

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Hi!

I think this is probably my first post in here so i'll start by saying that I never really posted but I've been following this forum for quite a while now. My knowledge of tennis is very basic so unfortunately I don't think I would be able to contribute much, I apologise for that. 

I have one question though, sometimes one of the reasons behind the tips are the points that the players are defending, is there any website that details this or do you just search for the same tournament for last year and check it? Thank you! 

 

Edit: well apparently it was the 2nd... I don't remember what the 1st post was! hehe

Edited by Painteur

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16 hours ago, Painteur said:

Hi!

I think this is probably my first post in here so i'll start by saying that I never really posted but I've been following this forum for quite a while now. My knowledge of tennis is very basic so unfortunately I don't think I would be able to contribute much, I apologise for that. 

I have one question though, sometimes one of the reasons behind the tips are the points that the players are defending, is there any website that details this or do you just search for the same tournament for last year and check it? Thank you! 

 

Edit: well apparently it was the 2nd... I don't remember what the 1st post was! hehe

I'm using tennisinsight for years...it's paid but you will have a lot of statistics about players. Btw if you will pay for TI, don't follow their value system it's long time losing bot. And don't fall for their crowd bets, mostly people are blindly following some hot run guys...

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On 15/02/2017, 11:38:59, tomagio said:

And yes, you can look how player played on tourney in recent years or you can filter some good stats (like playing vs big servers, lefties etc.)

I have registered with it and based on those match rating, surface and predicted chance, I went on Strycova, Radwanska, Vesnina (only because of the odd of 5), Gasquet, Kerber and Karolina Pliskova. I think I'll have to be careful with it hehe

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I see something for today...

Alexander Dolgopolov to beat Pablo Cuevas at 2.37 with bet365

I don't think Cuevas should be the bigger favourite here. When considering his form of this season so far and that he hasn't played since losing 3-0 to Diego Schwarzman in Aussie open I think Alexander might have a decent chance here. Pablo has never won Buenos Aires either and he often uses this tournament to get into shape for winning the other south american clay tournaments in Brazil where he's won 3 of his 5 titles and 2 last season. Hi will come strong later on. I just don't think he will come prepared well enough for this encounter and he also has lost before in Buenos Aires first round 2014 to Alexander in a third set tie-breaker. His only loss to him and they've faced two times, once in a qualifier for Sopot, Poland Pablo won and that was 10 years ago so it's not worth taking into account.

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Carlos Berlocq to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.53 with bet365

This is probably where the road ends for Thiago. He's been lucky with his draw in this tournament. Two straight sets victories should give him some confidence but it should not be enough to stop Carlos who is the only argie left in the draw. He will have plenty of motivation to go to the semis of this tournament and as old and experienced as he is I don't think any nerves or feel of some pressure from the home advantage will be present either. Expecting him to win this match in 2 or 3 sets I don't think is to mutch to ask.

Edited by four-leaf

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Fairly strange week this. Saw Ferrer, he was disastrous, not sure how much future he's got ahead of himself, doesn't have that extra step anymore. Saw some Challenger action, quite impressed by this Jose Hernandez guy and by the young Moutet from France. Couldn't find anything interesting betting-wise though and last week was so good that I don't really feel rushed at the moment. Will take a look at what pops up later on, but chances are that I'll stay with just this one for tomorrow.

TennisThread.png

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20 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Fairly strange week this. Saw Ferrer, he was disastrous, not sure how much future he's got ahead of himself, doesn't have that extra step anymore. Saw some Challenger action, quite impressed by this Jose Hernandez guy and by the young Moutet from France. Couldn't find anything interesting betting-wise though and last week was so good that I don't really feel rushed at the moment. Will take a look at what pops up later on, but chances are that I'll stay with just this one for tomorrow.

TennisThread.png

Was on Tomas myself but Jo Wilfried played well enough to win Rotterdam. It's pretty clear who will win Buenos Aires also and that will be Kei Nishikori.

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What's the word today on Rotterdam.Tsonga's serve has been working miracles for him these days and his attacking style is perfectly suited by the conditions.On the other hand we have Goffin who has an excellent baseline and makes no unforced errors by any means.I don't think their last encounted should be taken into consideration due to the fact that it was on clay.I know that both of them have everything to play for.That's second final for Goffin this year and it has been a while since he last one a ATP title.As i see it,odds of 1.65 on Tsonga to win the whole thing hold some value because he has beaten better opponents so far in the competition and is yet to drop a set here.I really hope his 1st serve % don't drop below 80 which should be enough to see off the opponent

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Hard to say, I didn't see any of yesterday's matches unfortunately. Tsonga needs his serve to work, that's correct. Not sure about the "beaten better opponents" bit though. Muller is good these days, Cilic not so much, don't know how Berdych played yesterday. Goffin takes the cake by beating Dimitrov imo on that front (especially since the Belgian has a horrible H2H record against him), but yeah, the rest of his opponents weren't that great.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Hard to say, I didn't see any of yesterday's matches unfortunately. Tsonga needs his serve to work, that's correct. Not sure about the "beaten better opponents" bit though. Muller is good these days, Cilic not so much, don't know how Berdych played yesterday. Goffin takes the cake by beating Dimitrov imo on that front (especially since the Belgian has a horrible H2H record against him), but yeah, the rest of his opponents weren't that great.

Uhhh...about Dimitrov...Goffin should've defeated him in the final here in Sofia a week ago.Grigor was fallimg apart at times and it was the crowd who made him win.They were supporting him non-stop,encouraging him.Goffin was the better of the two in both games and totally deserved the win yesterday.Don't get me wrong.Dimitrov is an excellent player and top 10 material but he would've lost that game if it didn't take place in Sofia so i'll give the credit to Goffin only for breaking his own bad luck and defeating the Bulgarian for first time.

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