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StevieDay1983

Weekend > Feb 10th - 12th

47 posts in this topic

11 hours ago, Icongene said:

Good call on the draw. Got stung a bit on this one. 

Sounded like a piss poor game (going by Doncasters twitter feed) and maybe the pitch played a bigger part than I anticipated.

Can't beat yourself up too much when you get a top v bottom and odds of 1.95 on the stronger team.

I have something called "The Football Manager Theory". Basically, whenever I play Football Manager and I am a team at the top playing a team at the bottom I know I will struggle to win. The same when the tables are turned. If I am struggling with a club then I know I stand a great chance of victory against the top teams. No idea why. Mentality perhaps? So whenever a team at the top is playing a team at the bottom I am always wary.

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Aston Villa v Ipswich Town

Aston Villa: Jack Grealish (23/3 m, suspended), Gabby Agbonlahor (11/0 f), Mile Jedinak (20/0 m), Ritchie de Laet (3/0 d), Jed Steer (0/0 g)

Ipswich Town: Cole Skuse (29/0 m), Myles Kenlock (4/0 d), Tommy Smith (2/0 d), Danny Rowe (0/0 d)(all doubtful), Adam Webster (22/1 d), Luke Hyam (0/0 m), Jonny Williams (8/0 m), Giles Coke (0/0 m)

 

Fulham FC v Wigan Athletic

Fulham FC: Ryan Fredericks (15/0 m, suspended)

Wigan Athletic: Alex Gilbey (8/1 m, doubtful), Kyle Knoyle (1/0 d), Luke Garbutt (8/0 d), Nick Powell (15/1 m), Reece Burke (6/1 d), Donervon Daniels (1/0 d)

 

Gillingham v Port Vale

Gillingham: Deji Oshilaja (20/2 d, probably in), Lee Martin (0/0 m), Bradley Garmston (0/0 m), Josh Parker (f, newcomer)(all doubtful), Bondz N'Gala (0/0 d, ineligible), Aaron Morris (0/0 d)

Port Vale: Jerome Thomas (18/1 m, illness, probably in), Adam Yates (0/0 d)

 

Bolton Wanderers v Walsall FC

Bolton Wanderers: Andy Taylor (22/0 d, probably in), Lawrie Wilson (18/1 m), Darren Pratley (1/0 m, captain), Mark Howard (17/0 first goalkeeper), Mark Davies (5/0 m)

Walsall FC: Reece Flanagan (0/0 m), Maz Kouhyar (5/0 m), Rory Oliver (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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"I have something called "The Football Manager Theory". Basically, whenever I play Football Manager and I am a team at the top playing a team at the bottom I know I will struggle to win. The same when the tables are turned. If I am struggling with a club then I know I stand a great chance of victory against the top teams. No idea why. Mentality perhaps? So whenever a team at the top is playing a team at the bottom I am always wary."

I have a theory. It's self belief vs over-confidence. And it's like an equation and it also borrows from the idea that energy can not be created or destroyed - only transferred.

Over-confident teams expect lower teams to bend over. They figure that they only need to give a team 75% of their value because they see them as 50% compared to what they themselves are worth. Which is actually true. This bottom team is half as good as them on their best days.

No only that, but the big dogs have just been playing their hearts out against another Top 6 team the week before, plus Champions league, etc, so they need a bit of a rest. So they will only give the game 75%. They can't possibly be expected to give 100% every week.

But this is an equation remember.

The bottom teams have had a week to mull over their thrashing by Man U they just endured and their imminent relegation. They are sick of getting spoken down to by commentators that never played a day in their lives and being one of the the laughing stocks of the division. There's something to prove to everyone plus a lot of controlled desperation to stay up. So they go into the game having to win. Remember - it's an equation. This team is only 50% of the team the big dogs are, but the big dogs went into the match at 75% - and all of a sudden they are on equal footing - because that 25% they gave up can only go the other way in the equation. The small side have to win so they force themselves to believe they can.

And on an equal footing, it's just as possible for an underdog to score. Further, their self-belief increases as the game goes on and they're defending well, and almost scoring. The big dogs went into this match not expecting to have a fight on their hands and so mentally unprepared. All of a sudden, the effort they realise they'll have to exert makes them more tired than they should be, whereas the self-belief that the smaller team can win, or let's say they ARE winning a goal up, it can suck the big dogs down to 50% of what they're worth and make the small team hit 100%.

I've seen this time and time again as a Swansea supporter.

I think I'm going to call it the 'Cup Game Mentality FormulaTM " lol 

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Not much to go on today, nothing is standing out.

Quick word on my team Huddersfield Town, we are top of the form table in the Championship and we are on cracking form, full of confidence and are priced at 23/20 at QPR. Believe it or not, we have never ever won a league game at Loftus Road and QPR have picked up a little under the odious country bumpkin Holloway, who tipped us for relegation pre-season (lol). i'm hoping we can correct our never winning in that part of West London today and carry on or charge on the top 2. Think we are worth taking at that price today, think we might scrape a one niller.

In the absence in the lack of real value on anyone think I it has to be form favourites this week, so I'm going to take the following,

Reading 17/20 against Barnsley who have sold all their best players.

Mansfield 4/6 they are in form and Hartlepool are no great shakes on the road.

Fulham 3/5 at home to Wigan, I'm struggling to see why Fulham aren't in the play offs, they should take care of Wigan today.

Scunthorpe 4/6 against Shrewsbury who are in decentish form of late but it's hard to see them getting anything at Glandular Fever Park.

Norwich 4/6 at home to Forest, Norwich seem back to form of late.

Pays a respectable 12/1

Going to have a speculative punt on 3 aways too Exeter 13/8, Blackburn 7/5 and Charlton 9/4 at 19/1.

 

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fulham are too low odds to win and considering wigan just proved against norwich how good they can be i think a draw is very possible and four previous meetings were draws so that says a lot

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guys long time lurker, i am very appreciative of everyone picks.

Due to work i cant always put my picks on here but i thought i would throw what i think is a good solid pick today.

My pick is Saint Johnstone at home to Partick thistle in the Scottish FA cup.  around the evens but i have noticed price is slowly eroding as some sharps putting money down.

I am a Celtic fan and although most teams set up defensively against us i have been impressed with Tommy Wrights pressing mentality, one could argue that outside Brendan Rodgers and also without any resources Tommy is hands down the best manager in the SPL. His team have performed the best against a rampant Celtic team in recent weeks. I have had the opportunity to take in some Saints home games whilst doing some contract work in Perth and they are in form atm outplaying most teams on their patch.  

Partick are a decent compact side, a side that can hold most teams but lack that bit of quality to give themselves an edge. i think the recent away result for Saints against Partick at firhill is a good indication of where both teams are just now. Partick and Saints usually take points off each other in ding dong inconsistent battles but in a one off cup game i think Saints are good value to win against a Partick team suffering a recent goal scoring crisis. A low scoring home win for Saints is my prediction.

good luck

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St Mirren to beat East Fife in the Scottish FA cup at 11/10 (general).  The saints not as bad as current results suggest and can get a win against a team which is mid table in the league beneath them.  Double with Brighton at 4/9, who will want to keep pressure on Newcastle who play this evening.  

Double pays just over 2/1

Edited by chris666

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English League Two:

Notts County vs Cheltenham

This is a six-pointer between two teams that seek to pull away from the lower end of the table. New hosts' manager Kevin Nolan is still molding his starting eleven along with some new players. His strategy for points is to focus on home form but now faces a tricky problem: he is facing Cheltenham today and will host red-hot Exeter on Tuesday! Meaning his team has to get a result today, and he has  indicated that they will attack from the first whistle. The visitors have scored 8 goals in the last five games and are also out for the three points. BTTS and Over 2.5 goals

Crewe vs Grimsby

Hosts come from a 4-0 mauling away to Exeter and are keen to shore up their defensive set-up. There is also tremendous pressure on the team to raise their performance and Manager David Artell has this week instituted double training sessions. But they lack cutting edge upfront and are already in the market looking for strikers who are free agents! The visitors have previously shown play-off intentions but this is now questionable after selling off their main striker Omar Bogle to Championship side Wigan in January; and already the goals seem to be drying up. Under 2.5 goals

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I'm struggling to see how Morecambe are 3/1 at home to Cambridge. Morecambe have picked up again recently and are unbeaten in their last 5. 2 of those were draws against Doncaster who are top and Carlisle who are 3rd. Cambridge on the other hand have lost their last 3. In terms of teams news, Morecambe have a full squad to choose from  with no injury worries including midfielder Andy Fleming who is back from suspension. Right back Brad Halliday is out for Cambridge and although Barry Corr is due to return from a long-term injury they wont risk him today I dont think.

Morecambe 3/1 looks good value to me.

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EDIT: @allyhibs

Anyone who touches the Edinburgh Derby this weekend is either an idiot or a hibs/hearts supporter.

On what planet would Hibs be top 5 in the SPL? It was only about a month ago half your support was fed up with Lennon's 'boring' football. Hearts have brought in a couple of players, of which Hibs could only dream of getting a chance to sign. Two Greek internationals and not your usual over the hill types. Goncalves who has also just joined has shed a bunch of weight since his St Mirren days and already bagged a brace v Motherwell. He was ace in the league a few years ago when here on loan but too unfit. The Hibs defence is also, a big pile of steaming shite and Hearts have just battered Rangers and Motherwell so confidence is high.

'No way we'll lose the cup to this lot'

You've not been a fan very long have you? It'd be the most predictable 'Hibs' result imaginable. Win it one year, knocked out by he rivals the next.

You've got a chance as the Hearts defence can be got at but imo Hibs will be delighted with a draw and then take them at Easter Road-as happened in the same competition last year. Away win is not a good tip. Just my cents.

 

Edited by Icongene

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I've taken Southend @ 3.9 and Posh @ 4.08 to win their respective matches in League One. I understand the reason for the odds being the way they are (who opposes Millwall and Sheff Utd?), but these are great prices for two sides that are in the playoff mix or just out of it.

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On 09/02/2017, 20:48:23, Icongene said:

Quite like the look of Oldham at 2.20.

Coventry obviously just horrendous in the league and I think Oldhams manager was brought in to get results in exactly these types of matches. They already proved they were up for the battle by taking care of 2nd bottom Chesterfield away from home 5 days ago and beat a decent Peterborough team who are sitting 8th at Boundary Park. They were also seconds away from a respectable 0-0 draw away to v MK Dons who are in great form and play at a venue where Oldham have an awful record. Coventry have also lost 11/15 on the road this season.

I reckon it will be an eye watering bad contest, probably with a red card but can see Oldham 1-0/ or 0-0.

/\/\/\/\/\/\

Decided against this one.

 

Yeovil v Orient.

The home side look good value here due to Orients free-fall. Given that a number of young players are starting against a side with the 6th strongest home record in the division I think it will be step too far for them. The remit to the Orient players will be to be compettive but I can't see them avoiding defeat, even if it's only narrowly here. The home side also won the reverse fixture 1-0. Finally when doing a basic performance comparison, Orient have failed to beat any sides currently within a 4 place radius of Yeovil in the table (D1 L4).

 

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3 hours ago, dogmeister said:

guys long time lurker, i am very appreciative of everyone picks.

Due to work i cant always put my picks on here but i thought i would throw what i think is a good solid pick today.

My pick is Saint Johnstone at home to Partick thistle in the Scottish FA cup.  around the evens but i have noticed price is slowly eroding as some sharps putting money down.

I am a Celtic fan and although most teams set up defensively against us i have been impressed with Tommy Wrights pressing mentality, one could argue that outside Brendan Rodgers and also without any resources Tommy is hands down the best manager in the SPL. His team have performed the best against a rampant Celtic team in recent weeks. I have had the opportunity to take in some Saints home games whilst doing some contract work in Perth and they are in form atm outplaying most teams on their patch.  

Partick are a decent compact side, a side that can hold most teams but lack that bit of quality to give themselves an edge. i think the recent away result for Saints against Partick at firhill is a good indication of where both teams are just now. Partick and Saints usually take points off each other in ding dong inconsistent battles but in a one off cup game i think Saints are good value to win against a Partick team suffering a recent goal scoring crisis. A low scoring home win for Saints is my prediction.

good luck

We love a good lurker getting involved around here, @dogmeister. Your name combined with a recent habit of watching people do their thing from the shadows... reminds me of something... :lol

In all seriousness, great to see your picks and your input is always appreciated. :ok

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i don't understand how scunthrope lost. they are usually full of goals especially at home and it's unusual not to see barnsley concede. reading totally dominated but couldn't find a goal. fleetwood have scored in all but one game all season and honesty should have found one goal today and i don't know what the hell happened to derby. they rested first team in cup then let in 3 goals in today. it's pathethic

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On 09/02/2017, 23:36:42, willie82 said:

Mansfield @3/4 are my nap. They are in great form and hartlepool are poor and woefull away from home. Can't see anything other than a home win for mansfield.

 

2 hours ago, DanV89 said:

I'm struggling to see how Morecambe are 3/1 at home to Cambridge. Morecambe have picked up again recently and are unbeaten in their last 5. 2 of those were draws against Doncaster who are top and Carlisle who are 3rd. Cambridge on the other hand have lost their last 3. In terms of teams news, Morecambe have a full squad to choose from  with no injury worries including midfielder Andy Fleming who is back from suspension. Right back Brad Halliday is out for Cambridge and although Barry Corr is due to return from a long-term injury they wont risk him today I dont think.

Morecambe 3/1 looks good value to me.

Nice picks. 4-0 and 2-0 respectively.

Edited by Bronxie
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@Icongene

Anyone who touches the Edinburgh Derby this weekend is either an idiot or a hibs/hearts supporter.

I think it's obvious i'm a hibs supporter. Why would betting on a football match make someone an idiot?

On what planet would Hibs be top 5 in the SPL?

The bottom half of the Premiership and the top half of the Championship are of a very similar standard, teams would open up against us more in the Premiership, that suits us, we've proved that against every Premiership side we've played in the last 2 years. I guess we'll find out next season.

It was only about a month ago half your support was fed up with Lennon's 'boring' football.

Really!! Did you ask every Hibs fan? You get the usual moaners who moan about everything after a couple of bad results, every support has them. The vast majority are supporting Lennon. His job is to win the league, he's getting the job done.

Hearts have brought in a couple of players, of which Hibs could only dream of getting a chance to sign. Two Greek internationals and not your usual over the hill types. Goncalves who has also just joined has shed a bunch of weight since his St Mirren days and already bagged a brace v Motherwell. He was ace in the league a few years ago when here on loan but too unfit.

Yes they've brought in a couple of decent looking players, we have some decent players of our own who know how to win the Edinburgh derby, unbeaten in 6 remember. Do these Greek guys? I'm hoping not.

The Hibs defence is also, a big pile of steaming shite and Hearts have just battered Rangers and Motherwell so confidence is high.

We've conceded 12 goals in 23 games, if you'd checked the stats before spouting nonsense, you'll actually see we have one of the tightest defences in Europe. Granted Hearts played well against The Rangers but the defending at times was comical, gifted them 3 goals, most teams would have beaten them that night. They were poor against Motherwell until the sending off.

'No way we'll lose the cup to this lot'

I don't think we will.

You've not been a fan very long have you?

Aye ok pal, now you're just being a dick.

It'd be the most predictable 'Hibs' result imaginable. Win it one year, knocked out by he rivals the next.

Maybe, i guess we'll find out tomorrow.

You've got a chance as the Hearts defence can be got at but imo Hibs will be delighted with a draw and then take them at Easter Road-as happened in the same competition last year. Away win is not a good tip. Just my cents.

I don't think we'll lose, derbies are unpredictable, we have a chance of winning. 12/5 for Hibs is value. What part of that don't you understand?

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4 minutes ago, Kenton Schweppes said:

Even when i back all the favourites.....i still can't win lol. That Scunthorpe result is a real coupon wrecker.

it is a bit shit i know but you got to lick your wounds and move on pal and that's all we can do

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9 hours ago, allyhibs said:

@Icongene

Anyone who touches the Edinburgh Derby this weekend is either an idiot or a hibs/hearts supporter.

I think it's obvious i'm a hibs supporter. Why would betting on a football match make someone an idiot?

On what planet would Hibs be top 5 in the SPL?

The bottom half of the Premiership and the top half of the Championship are of a very similar standard, teams would open up against us more in the Premiership, that suits us, we've proved that against every Premiership side we've played in the last 2 years. I guess we'll find out next season.

It was only about a month ago half your support was fed up with Lennon's 'boring' football.

Really!! Did you ask every Hibs fan? You get the usual moaners who moan about everything after a couple of bad results, every support has them. The vast majority are supporting Lennon. His job is to win the league, he's getting the job done.

Hearts have brought in a couple of players, of which Hibs could only dream of getting a chance to sign. Two Greek internationals and not your usual over the hill types. Goncalves who has also just joined has shed a bunch of weight since his St Mirren days and already bagged a brace v Motherwell. He was ace in the league a few years ago when here on loan but too unfit.

Yes they've brought in a couple of decent looking players, we have some decent players of our own who know how to win the Edinburgh derby, unbeaten in 6 remember. Do these Greek guys? I'm hoping not.

The Hibs defence is also, a big pile of steaming shite and Hearts have just battered Rangers and Motherwell so confidence is high.

We've conceded 12 goals in 23 games, if you'd checked the stats before spouting nonsense, you'll actually see we have one of the tightest defences in Europe. Granted Hearts played well against The Rangers but the defending at times was comical, gifted them 3 goals, most teams would have beaten them that night. They were poor against Motherwell until the sending off.

'No way we'll lose the cup to this lot'

I don't think we will.

You've not been a fan very long have you?

Aye ok pal, now you're just being a dick.

It'd be the most predictable 'Hibs' result imaginable. Win it one year, knocked out by he rivals the next.

Maybe, i guess we'll find out tomorrow.

You've got a chance as the Hearts defence can be got at but imo Hibs will be delighted with a draw and then take them at Easter Road-as happened in the same competition last year. Away win is not a good tip. Just my cents.

I don't think we'll lose, derbies are unpredictable, we have a chance of winning. 12/5 for Hibs is value. What part of that don't you understand?

Don't take it personally mate. Maybe I should have used more smileys ;)

All my family are Hibees. Been to plenty games myself and followed plenty times home and away with my uncles in previous championship campaigns, cup finals, semi-defeats against Ayr etc etc. I hope you beat Hearts. I was merely offering an alternative opinion.

Good luck :ok

Edited by Icongene
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9 hours ago, Icongene said:

 

Looks like I swapped the wrong bets:\

Bad weekend for me with Reading and Yeovil not coming through.

Luckily I had Brighton and over 3.5 goals in the Osasuna/Madrid match. A little bit of luck at the end to make up for Leyton Orients goal earlier in the day and softened my loses but disappointing after 3 good weeks.

Edited by Icongene

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Rangers V Greenock Morton

This Scottish Cup tie see's two teams in very different situations. The home side are currently in dissaray. They sit a mighty 27 points behind rivals Celtic in the league. They have literally, just parted company with their manager Mark Warburton under a dust cloud of speculation and poisonous press as board and manager have come to blows. The interim manager is the Rangers youth coach who has until now absolutely no experience otherwise. Graeme Murty (ex Reading).

Morton, are considered one of the better sides in the Scottish Championship. Their manager Jim Duffy, is (by Scottish standards) a very decent coach and managed to consolidate the club as a mid table championship side in their first season following promotion from the second division. They sit in 4th place only 9 points behind leaders Hibs who have a budget infinitely higher. Yes the league is poor but this Morton team certainly wont lack motivation. They've only lost one of their last 8 winning 5 of them.
 

The home team on the other hand, have only 2 wins in their last 6 and have only scored more than 2 goals in a match ONCE this season. This seems RIDICULOUS odds to me.

The Ibrox crowd are notoriously restless when things don't go the homes sides way and given recent displays of unrest -booing the team off at HT and FT v Ross County in the last match-just strengthens my belief that Mortin can hold a AH bet here.

Greenock Morton +2 at 2.2

Edited by Icongene
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