Weekend > Feb 10th - 12th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

The Championship ELO ratings are yet to be updated so I will edit this post as soon as they are available. Please find the remaining ELO ratings available for the time being.

@sajtion, your psychic powers worked again! You were right! Wigan and Norwich did have draw written all over it. Not sure anybody could have predicted that level of excitement in that game though! What are you thinking this week?

@Tiffy, your DC bet on Derby would have come off but it was probably the sensible decision to give the midweek games a skip. Your boys have got to be fancying a solid win against Burton on the weekend? Handicap win of -1 or even -2? Tempted?

@allyhibs, you called the Morton to beat Raith score. It was close but a great shout. What are you thinking this weekend? Massive game for your lot away to Hearts. Upset on the cards?

@allthethings, you were one of a few lads commenting on Morecambe's price and you reaped the rewards. What is taking your fancy this weekend?

@Icongene, great shout on the MK Dons game with total goals scored under 2.5. Are there any of those sort of bets interesting you here?

@Neubs, always a pleasure to see you in this forum. You also got on board with MK Dons. Will you be betting on UK football again this weekend?

@DW_United, did you back Leicester to win over 90 minutes or by any method? Are you backing anything this weekend?

@Kenton Schweppes, 2.10 for your lot to beat QPR away. Seems a dangerously low given how Holloway is turning them into a dogged unit right now. What do you think?

@skyblues88, you must be delighted that Russell Slade helped guide you lads to the EFL Trophy Final. Will that have a positive impact this weekend or will you suffer another defeat?

[sajtion]

i would like to back leeds but i have bad feeling about this match. maybe stevie can fill us in on cardiff for this match. does you expect cardiff to do well against leeds?

[sajtion]

here are my selections for this round. i think these are best shouts for this weekend in my opinion so...

brighton, norwich, reading, derby, scunthorpe, sheff utd, fleetwood town, bury, portsmouth, mansfield, luton

stake £15 returns £10.000

good luck

[StevieDay1983]

1 hour ago, sajtion said:

i would like to back leeds but i have bad feeling about this match. maybe stevie can fill us in on cardiff for this match. does you expect cardiff to do well against leeds?

If we were at home then I'd really fancy us. Unfortunately, I think Leeds are a different proposition this season and I think they may sneak a narrow win. Neil Warnock, as a proud Sheffield man, will take us into this game treating it as a derby. Our fans and Leeds fans do not get on at all so it basically is a derby. I would not be surprised if we scraped a draw but our lack of fire power could prove costly. I think a 1-0 or 2-1 win for Leeds is more likely.

[Kenton Schweppes]

11 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

If we were at home then I'd really fancy us. Unfortunately, I think Leeds are a different proposition this season and I think they may sneak a narrow win. Neil Warnock, as a proud Sheffield man, will take us into this game treating it as a derby. Our fans and Leeds fans do not get on at all so it basically is a derby. I would not be surprised if we scraped a draw but our lack of fire power could prove costly. I think a 1-0 or 2-1 win for Leeds is more likely.

Having seen Leeds in the flesh last week they are a pretty physical side who rely on set plays a lot and superior fitness. If you can not let their physicality knock you out of your stride you might have a chance of getting something from the game....I won't be backing you though lol.

[malabgd]

Sheffield Wed v Birmingham City

Sheffield Wed: Glenn Loovens (17/1 d), Gary Hooper (17/5 f), Will Buckley (8/0 m), Tom Lees (27/0 d)(all doubtful), Steven Fletcher (25/6 f, 2nd top scorer, suspended), Urby Emanuelson (0/0 m), Marco Matias (0/0 f)

Birmingham City: Michael Morrison (29/3 d, captain), Ryan Shotton (29/2 d), Jacques Maghoma (20/3 m), Clayton Donaldson (18/6 f, top scorer)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[willie82]

Mansfield @3/4 are my nap. They are in great form and hartlepool are poor and woefull away from home. Can't see anything other than a home win for mansfield.

[skyblues88]

12 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

 

@skyblues88, you must be delighted that Russell Slade helped guide you lads to the EFL Trophy Final. Will that have a positive impact this weekend or will you suffer another defeat?

@StevieDay1983

Over the moon mate can't wait for April 2nd now!  We finally deserve something positive after years of hurt. But we've got to put it to one side and focus on trying to survive in League One, which is looking highly doubtful at the minute. I just hope we play the nice football we played in the first half instead of the "hoof ball" we've been playing so far under Slade. Our very young defence coped well with Akinfenwa after his goal. 

With no league wins in our last 13 matches I think we need to win 3 out of our next 4 (or 2 wins and a draw minimum) in order to push ourselves back in the survival race. We really do need to win at Oldham and keep the positive energy going from Tuesday's win. The protests against SISU were put to one side on Tuesday but may return. We had 11,700 there Tuesday night, we'll take 40,000 to Wembley, but only 200 sold so far for Oldham.

 

My bets for the weekend will be:

-  SHEFF WEDS - Strong side with alot of firepower up front 

-  ASTON VILLA - Much needed home win to get season back on track

-  BRIGHTON - Strong home side, win to keep pace with Newcastle

-  DERBY - Another team with plenty of firepower. Home win to chase the playoffs

-  CELTIC - Will want to add Scottish FA Cup to their impending league title. 

 

 

 

 

[Icongene]

Quite like the look of Oldham at 2.20.

Coventry obviously just horrendous in the league and I think Oldhams manager was brought in to get results in exactly these types of matches. They already proved they were up for the battle by taking care of 2nd bottom Chesterfield away from home 5 days ago and beat a decent Peterborough team who are sitting 8th at Boundary Park. They were also seconds away from a respectable 0-0 draw away to v MK Dons who are in great form and play at a venue where Oldham have an awful record. Coventry have also lost 11/15 on the road this season.

I reckon it will be an eye watering bad contest, probably with a red card but can see Oldham 1-0/ or 0-0.

/\/\/\/\/\/\

Decided against this one.

 

Yeovil v Orient.

The home side look good value here due to Orients free-fall. Given that a number of young players are starting against a side with the 6th strongest home record in the division I think it will be step too far for them. The remit to the Orient players will be to be compettive but I can't see them avoiding defeat, even if it's only narrowly here. The home side also won the reverse fixture 1-0. Finally when doing a basic performance comparison, Orient have failed to beat any sides currently within a 4 place radius of Yeovil in the table (D1 L4).

Edited February 11, 2017 by Icongene

[MuineBheag]

I did fun bet ,trixie ,so one can let us down and we still at the cash desk

Sunderland 

Brentford

Notts C

Plymouth vs. Exeter  DRAW

[KikoCy]

Brighton, Derby and Scunthorpe stand out for me.

Might go for a cheeky treble @ 4.72 for all home wins.

[Tanktop]

Yeovil v Leyton Orient

Yeovils last 11 home matches W6 D3 L2 (losses to doncaster and barnet), and have the 6th best home record in the division, their lowly league position is due to their poor away record. Their last home win was against 2nd placed Plymouth. Im going to repeat what i said the other week about Orient - 

 Leyton Orient are currently on an extremely poor run of form which has seen them pick up just four points from their last six games. Since the turn of the year, they have lost three games in a row; 4-0 away to Exeter, 3-1 at home to Barnet and 2-1 away to Portsmouth. (*Thats now 6 in a row!) - Fans think the club are moments away from administration, let alone relegation, and players are leaving as quicvkly as they can.The Orient chairman has put half the players on the transfer list, 4 have already gone, and the fans are well p**sed off. A quote from their fans forum which just about sums it up ( http://leytonorientforum.co.uk/topic19851.html )

 "Simply can't see anything other than another defeat here. To be honest, I'm so disillusioned with everything to do with the club that I can't actually see us being able to beat anybody."

http://www.ytfc.net/news/article/2016-17/preview-yeovil-town-v-leyton-orient-3566175.aspx 

Orient are abasket case of a club, cant see their youngsters getting anything here.

Yeovil  @ 1.91

Yeovil to win to nil @ 3.10  

 

Mansfield v Hartlepool

 

Boss Steve Evans has no new injury worries ahead of the contest, with just defenders Kyle Howkins and George Taft unavailable with their respective knee and hamstring issues. Stags are currently on a seven-match unbeaten run in Sky Bet League Two which dates back to the New Year's Eve draw with Doncaster Rovers at One Call Stadium. Since the draw with the league-leaders, Stags have drawn one and won five of the following six matches, conceding just one goal in that time. Last time out, goals from midfielder Ben Whiteman and striker Shaq Coulthirst earned a 2-0 victory over Barnet at the Hive Stadium. 

Hartlepool have enjoyed a slight upturn in form since manager Dave Jones took the reins last month. The former Sheffield Wednesday boss watched Pools' victory over Stevenage from the stands before taking charge of the 3-1 defeat against Newport County and the 1-1 stalemate with Yeovil Town last week. Pools last 8 matches - W2 D2 L4, in last 8 away matches they  are W0 D2 L6.

Think Mansfields run will continue here, Pool are poor travellers, but often manage to score.

Read more at http://www.mansfieldtown.net/fixtures-results/match-preview/index.aspx#GtiDcBoRBotFRPqd.99

Mansfield to win and over 2.5 goals @  2.63

 

[StevieDay1983]

15 hours ago, skyblues88 said:

@StevieDay1983

Over the moon mate can't wait for April 2nd now!  We finally deserve something positive after years of hurt. But we've got to put it to one side and focus on trying to survive in League One, which is looking highly doubtful at the minute. I just hope we play the nice football we played in the first half instead of the "hoof ball" we've been playing so far under Slade. Our very young defence coped well with Akinfenwa after his goal. 

With no league wins in our last 13 matches I think we need to win 3 out of our next 4 (or 2 wins and a draw minimum) in order to push ourselves back in the survival race. We really do need to win at Oldham and keep the positive energy going from Tuesday's win. The protests against SISU were put to one side on Tuesday but may return. We had 11,700 there Tuesday night, we'll take 40,000 to Wembley, but only 200 sold so far for Oldham.

 

My bets for the weekend will be:

-  SHEFF WEDS - Strong side with alot of firepower up front 

-  ASTON VILLA - Much needed home win to get season back on track

-  BRIGHTON - Strong home side, win to keep pace with Newcastle

-  DERBY - Another team with plenty of firepower. Home win to chase the playoffs

-  CELTIC - Will want to add Scottish FA Cup to their impending league title. 

 

 

 

 

I attended the EFL Trophy Final back in 2004 (Autowindscreen Shield it was then I think) because my ex-housemate was a Blackpool fan. They played Southend. Considering it was a low key competition it was a fantastic day out. That was when it was played at the Millennium Stadium. You'll have a great day. You stand every chance of winning as well.

[DW_United]

My bet this weekend is Yeovile 1 (1.9) or Yeovile - 1,5 (3.6). Yeovile is a quite capable team at home and is often scoring a lot of goals against teams in the lower half.  Leyton orient have been a disaster.  Their losing streak will end sooner or later and they have been doing better these last 2 games,  but I am betting that the tragedy continues and i think there is a lot of value. 

I will also probably back you guys on derby, brighton and Mansfield tomorrow 

Edited February 10, 2017 by DW_United

[Icongene]

I've just jumped on Doncaster to win v Newport at 1.95

Seems far too nice a price given how bad Newport have been this season. Doncaster have the 3rd best away record in the league and are coming in on hot form ( 1 defeat in 9) whereas their opponents have a number of injury concerns according to their coach. Newport also with 1 win in last 15.

The hosts are unbeaten in four but I feel that was the side playing close to max potential. The pitch is suppose to be absolutely terrible tonight so that will help Newport but I expect Doncaster to be too strong. If you wanna win the title this is exactly the kind of game you have to win.

[StevieDay1983]

2 hours ago, Icongene said:

I've just jumped on Doncaster to win v Newport at 1.95

Seems far too nice a price given how bad Newport have been this season. Doncaster have the 3rd best away record in the league and are coming in on hot form ( 1 defeat in 9) whereas their opponents have a number of injury concerns according to their coach. Newport also with 1 win in last 15.

The hosts are unbeaten in four but I feel that was the side playing close to max potential. The pitch is suppose to be absolutely terrible tonight so that will help Newport but I expect Doncaster to be too strong. If you wanna win the title this is exactly the kind of game you have to win.

Newport are a dangerous one. Unbeaten in their last five I think it is but still not really looking like a team that will win games regularly. However, top of the table Doncaster have to be fancied at that price. Watch it end in a draw now!

Championships ratings are now up there in case you guys haven't seen as well. What are we thinking? I saw Ladbrokes promoting the 3-0 outcome for the Sheffield Wednesday versus Birmingham game tonight at 12.00. Did anyone get on that?

[Icongene]

Good call on the draw. Got stung a bit on this one. 

Sounded like a piss poor game (going by Doncasters twitter feed) and maybe the pitch played a bigger part than I anticipated.

Can't beat yourself up too much when you get a top v bottom and odds of 1.95 on the stronger team.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Icongene

[Icongene]

Reading v Barnsley

This match involves two teams that are, by each others standards, having good seasons. Reading sitting in lofty 3rd whilst Barnsley find themselves in 9th.

Reading have an exceptional home record this season having only lossed 14% of their matches (W10 D3 L2). They've also only failed to score at home twice in that time. Currently unbeaten in 4.

Barnsley come into the game on the back of two defeats and having lost (arguably) their two best players in January. As a performance comparison, they have lost all their (a) matches to teams around Reading (Newcastle, Brighton, Leeds and Huddersfield) wheras Reading at (h) have W3 D1 against teams within the same league position radius of Barnsley (Derby, Norwich, Fulham, Preston). Looking at that would suggest Reading have no trouble v mid/top half teams.

It's a different story for the Norherners. All seven of Barnsleys away victories have come against bottom half sides, they have not beaten a current top half team on the road. I'd say Barnsley 5th best away record in the league is a bit misleading coming into this one.

Reading dropped points at Ipswich but they still scored two goals. Apparently (according to a fans forum) Barnsley have pressed less and been more defensive recently as they've failed to settle after the transfer window.

Reading 1.91

 

 

Edited February 11, 2017 by Icongene

[skyblues88]

8 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I attended the EFL Trophy Final back in 2004 (Autowindscreen Shield it was then I think) because my ex-housemate was a Blackpool fan. They played Southend. Considering it was a low key competition it was a fantastic day out. That was when it was played at the Millennium Stadium. You'll have a great day. You stand every chance of winning as well.

Thats right, might be a crap competition but it gives fans the chance of the Wembley experience. 

More important game tomorrow though, i'll be there at Oldham with the other 300 Coventry fans!  

[andrewcalo]

 

 HERE'S WHAT EVERYONE'S MINDED TO BET ON THIS WEEK.

Also their accumulated hit rate for the last four weeks...and I will update later before kick off...

 

@sajtion 45%           Brighton, Norwich, Reading, Derby, Scunthorpe, Sheff Utd, Fleetwood Town, Bury, Portsmouth, Mansfield, Luton

 

@willie82 ???%        Mansfield

 

@skyblues88 45%    Sheffield Wednesday, Aston Villa, Derby, Brighton, Celtic

 

@Icongene 50%       Oldham or DRAW      Reading         Doncaster (SO ALREADY GOT ONE WRONG THIS WEEK)   

 

@MuineBheag 50%  Sunderland                Brentford       Notts County       Plymouth v Exeter DRAW

 

@KikoCy 65%          Brighton         Derby             Scunthorpe

 

@Tanktop 100%       Yeovil              Mansfield

@allyhibs 50%          Hibernian          Hibs' Jason Cummings anytime scorer       Newcastle         Derby

 

                                  Scunthorpe        Mansfield      

 

Edited February 11, 2017 by andrewcalo

[allyhibs]

I'll keep this short and to the point;

Hibs won't lose on Sunday, all the value is on us. Hibs win 12/5. Jason Cummings anytime scorer 6/4.

Newcastle look back to form after a wee wobble and look a good bet to beat Wolves who were beaten by Burton last time out. There's no real value in the odds but a win's a win, right? Newcastle win 6/5.

Derby, Scunthorpe, Mansfield treble 4/1, looks good to me.

 

[allyhibs]

@andrewcalo Hibs and Cummings are 2 separate bets

[andrewcalo]

@allyhibs explain your reasoning for the definite Hibs win will you? Because I'm slow lol

Hearts are in Premiership, Hibs in the next league down...or does it not work like that in Scotland?

Is it supporters intuition? 

[allyhibs]

22 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

@allyhibs explain your reasoning for the definite Hibs win will you? Because I'm slow lol

Hearts are in Premiership, Hibs in the next league down...or does it not work like that in Scotland?

Is it supporters intuition? 

We are a premiership team playing in the Championship, we would be easily top 5, probably higher if we were in the top league.

We are at full strength, our midfield is the second best in the country after Celtic.

Our style of play is perfectly suited to beat their high pressing game.

Our players know what it takes to win the derbies, we haven't lost to them for a i think 6 games.

Our manager knows how to win the big games.

Their fans are over confident that they are going to give us a doing, it usually doesn't work like that in derbies (Hearts fans are the most deluded fannies in world football).

Jason Cummings is playing, he hates them, he always scores against them.

We are the cup holders, WE WON'T LOSE THE TROPHY TO THIS LOT.

12/5 is very good value.

 

 

 

[StevieDay1983]

11 hours ago, Icongene said:

Good call on the draw. Got stung a bit on this one. 

Sounded like a piss poor game (going by Doncasters twitter feed) and maybe the pitch played a bigger part than I anticipated.

Can't beat yourself up too much when you get a top v bottom and odds of 1.95 on the stronger team.

I have something called "The Football Manager Theory". Basically, whenever I play Football Manager and I am a team at the top playing a team at the bottom I know I will struggle to win. The same when the tables are turned. If I am struggling with a club then I know I stand a great chance of victory against the top teams. No idea why. Mentality perhaps? So whenever a team at the top is playing a team at the bottom I am always wary.

[andrewcalo]

awesome Ally. Go get 'em.

Edited February 11, 2017 by andrewcalo

[malabgd]

Aston Villa v Ipswich Town

Aston Villa: Jack Grealish (23/3 m, suspended), Gabby Agbonlahor (11/0 f), Mile Jedinak (20/0 m), Ritchie de Laet (3/0 d), Jed Steer (0/0 g)

Ipswich Town: Cole Skuse (29/0 m), Myles Kenlock (4/0 d), Tommy Smith (2/0 d), Danny Rowe (0/0 d)(all doubtful), Adam Webster (22/1 d), Luke Hyam (0/0 m), Jonny Williams (8/0 m), Giles Coke (0/0 m)

 

Fulham FC v Wigan Athletic

Fulham FC: Ryan Fredericks (15/0 m, suspended)

Wigan Athletic: Alex Gilbey (8/1 m, doubtful), Kyle Knoyle (1/0 d), Luke Garbutt (8/0 d), Nick Powell (15/1 m), Reece Burke (6/1 d), Donervon Daniels (1/0 d)

 

Gillingham v Port Vale

Gillingham: Deji Oshilaja (20/2 d, probably in), Lee Martin (0/0 m), Bradley Garmston (0/0 m), Josh Parker (f, newcomer)(all doubtful), Bondz N'Gala (0/0 d, ineligible), Aaron Morris (0/0 d)

Port Vale: Jerome Thomas (18/1 m, illness, probably in), Adam Yates (0/0 d)

 

Bolton Wanderers v Walsall FC

Bolton Wanderers: Andy Taylor (22/0 d, probably in), Lawrie Wilson (18/1 m), Darren Pratley (1/0 m, captain), Mark Howard (17/0 first goalkeeper), Mark Davies (5/0 m)

Walsall FC: Reece Flanagan (0/0 m), Maz Kouhyar (5/0 m), Rory Oliver (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[andrewcalo]

"I have something called "The Football Manager Theory". Basically, whenever I play Football Manager and I am a team at the top playing a team at the bottom I know I will struggle to win. The same when the tables are turned. If I am struggling with a club then I know I stand a great chance of victory against the top teams. No idea why. Mentality perhaps? So whenever a team at the top is playing a team at the bottom I am always wary."

I have a theory. It's self belief vs over-confidence. And it's like an equation and it also borrows from the idea that energy can not be created or destroyed - only transferred.

Over-confident teams expect lower teams to bend over. They figure that they only need to give a team 75% of their value because they see them as 50% compared to what they themselves are worth. Which is actually true. This bottom team is half as good as them on their best days.

No only that, but the big dogs have just been playing their hearts out against another Top 6 team the week before, plus Champions league, etc, so they need a bit of a rest. So they will only give the game 75%. They can't possibly be expected to give 100% every week.

But this is an equation remember.

The bottom teams have had a week to mull over their thrashing by Man U they just endured and their imminent relegation. They are sick of getting spoken down to by commentators that never played a day in their lives and being one of the the laughing stocks of the division. There's something to prove to everyone plus a lot of controlled desperation to stay up. So they go into the game having to win. Remember - it's an equation. This team is only 50% of the team the big dogs are, but the big dogs went into the match at 75% - and all of a sudden they are on equal footing - because that 25% they gave up can only go the other way in the equation. The small side have to win so they force themselves to believe they can.

And on an equal footing, it's just as possible for an underdog to score. Further, their self-belief increases as the game goes on and they're defending well, and almost scoring. The big dogs went into this match not expecting to have a fight on their hands and so mentally unprepared. All of a sudden, the effort they realise they'll have to exert makes them more tired than they should be, whereas the self-belief that the smaller team can win, or let's say they ARE winning a goal up, it can suck the big dogs down to 50% of what they're worth and make the small team hit 100%.

I've seen this time and time again as a Swansea supporter.

I think I'm going to call it the 'Cup Game Mentality Formula^TM " lol 

[Kenton Schweppes]

Not much to go on today, nothing is standing out.

Quick word on my team Huddersfield Town, we are top of the form table in the Championship and we are on cracking form, full of confidence and are priced at 23/20 at QPR. Believe it or not, we have never ever won a league game at Loftus Road and QPR have picked up a little under the odious country bumpkin Holloway, who tipped us for relegation pre-season (lol). i'm hoping we can correct our never winning in that part of West London today and carry on or charge on the top 2. Think we are worth taking at that price today, think we might scrape a one niller.

In the absence in the lack of real value on anyone think I it has to be form favourites this week, so I'm going to take the following,

Reading 17/20 against Barnsley who have sold all their best players.

Mansfield 4/6 they are in form and Hartlepool are no great shakes on the road.

Fulham 3/5 at home to Wigan, I'm struggling to see why Fulham aren't in the play offs, they should take care of Wigan today.

Scunthorpe 4/6 against Shrewsbury who are in decentish form of late but it's hard to see them getting anything at Glandular Fever Park.

Norwich 4/6 at home to Forest, Norwich seem back to form of late.

Pays a respectable 12/1

Going to have a speculative punt on 3 aways too Exeter 13/8, Blackburn 7/5 and Charlton 9/4 at 19/1.