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Weekend > Feb 11th - 13th


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From a Leicester City fans forum:

"So what do you think CR will do against the two defensive lines Swansea will implement, Clement is probably the best defensive coach in Europe and he loves to frustrate the opposition, what tends to happen with the experience of Clement I have is this, you will push up against his two banks of four, you will be sucked into playing really narrow and he will frustrate you until you change your formation, you will try and make your wingers more expansive to combat the two lines and move them out to the wing and he will punish you, how many 1-0 Clement wins I have witnessed is unreal, he bored the left breast off me. "

From Planetswans:

"Even though we're playing at home I am very happy for us to play defensively and give them a taste of their own medicine. We know exactly how they'll play against us because it's been the way that they beat us in our last three matches with them. They'll defend and try to counter-attack, and get the ball in space behind our back four for Vardy to run on to and score. But this time it isn't going to work, because their two centre backs Morgan and Huth are older and slower, we now have pace all over the pitch to over-run their mid-field, Vardy's confidence has gone, and our manager is too canny to allow them to have any space in front of goal. "

 

Edited by andrewcalo
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I like betting on the early games, so i will have a crack at Arsenal vs Hull. An Arsenal win seems like a foregone conclusion, being at home and fighting to stay in the title race. But i'm looking at goals here. Emirates usually delivers with goals against teams fighting relegation.

Over 2.5 goals ; 1.50 @Bet365

 

Edited by Bett
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West Ham v West Bromwich

West Ham: Cheikhou Kouyate (19/0 m), Aaron Cresswell (15/0 d), Andy Carroll (12/6 f)(all probably in), Andre Ayew (12/1 f), Alvaro Arbeloa (3/0 d)(both doubtful), Angelo Ogbonna (19/0 d), Arthur Masuaku (6/0 d), Diafra Sakho (2/1 f), Gokhan Töre (5/0 m)

West Bromwich: Brendan Galloway (3/0 d)

 

Liverpool FC v Tottenham

Liverpool FC: Adam Lallana (22/7 m), Dejan Lovren (20/2 d), Ragnar Klavan (12/0 d, illness)(all doubtful), Marko Grujic (2/0 m), Adam Bogdan (0/0 g), Danny Ings (0/0 f), Oviemuno Ejaria (2/0 m)

Tottenham: Kieran Trippier (3/0 d, probably in), Danny Rose (18/2 d), Jan Vertonghen (20/0 d), Erik Lamela (9/1 m), Georges-Kevin N'Koudou (5/0 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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11 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

Much tougher EPL card this week with hardly any value to speak of imo. Maybe Sunderland on a + since I don't like Southampton without Van Dijk and Fonte. They just look like one of those marooned in midtable, here have 3pts off us teams. Imagine what they'll be like after the league cup final, probably wont win another game for the rest of the season and stay up with 29 points due to Palace and Middlesbrough being total shite.

Anyway no bets for me as yet, Sunderland price seems to reflect ELO ratings so hardly value bet of the century in any case. Your gut instincts have to take over more in this part of the season and I don't have strong feelings for any selections at present.

Can't complain though, markets have opened up in recent weeks with some nice valuation errors here and there, it's been good.

Totally with you on Southampton missing Van Dijk and Fonte, @Mindfulness. Forgot to consider that. I still think Sunderland are lacking but so long as Jermain Defoe is fit they always have a chance of a draw. I might back the Asian Handicap 0 for Sunderland.

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Sunderland are too big here for a team that won 4 nil on the road last game. Southampton have lost their last two games in the league and this could well be the third,the home team fighting relegation might just prove too strong here.
 This followed an impressive rearguard action against title-chasing Tottenham. I just feel the tide may be starting to turn for David Moyes's men, and I will certainly be backing them at the current prices. Its certainly hard to get excited about the Saints at evens.

Sunderland - Southampton 1X

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HERE'S WHAT EVERYONE'S MINDED TO BET ON THIS WEEK.

Also their accumulated hit rate for the last four weeks...and I will update later before kick off...

@betcatalog  75%     Spurs BTTS

@vasilli07  100%       Swansea DNB

 

@andrewcalo 40%     DRAWS West Ham, Swansea, Burnley? Sunderland?        ???Swansea 1-0???

 

                                   Liverpool to get better          Man City to slip up

 

@dr better 100%        Everton DNB, Man City

 

@KikoCy 65%           West Ham U 2.5 and HT x    Man United U 2.5, 1-0 2-0 3-0 combo

 

                                    Swansea +1, win, BTTS, 1 and BTTS           ***Everton win

 

                                    ***Man City O 3.5                  Liverpool BTTS, 1-1              Hull+2

 

                                    Burnley U 2.5, 0-1 0-2 combo        !!!Sunderland +1 or BTTS - NOT TOUCHING!

 

@sajtion  45%          Man City         Man United                Chelsea           Sunderland

 

@Icongene 50%       Stoke

 

@Mindfulness 100%  ***Sunderland +1 (?1X? ?DNB?)

 

@allyhibs 50%           ***Stoke

@neilovan ???%       Hull or DRAW    Doubts Everton      Burnley DC, Burnley WIN, HT X and FT Burnley

p.s. boys not mentioned - you need a few weeks behind you so we know how you're performing...keep posting :)

p.p.s. *** denote agreement from tipsters and other sites.

Edited by andrewcalo
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It has to be Stoke this week in the Premiership. They're no world beaters but it's a difficult place to go even for the better teams, Palace are definitely not one of the better teams. As has been said above, they look worse under Allardyce (good, he's a tosser) and after last weeks thrashing from Sunderland, confidence must be low. Odds against looks a tiny bit of value to me. Stoke win @ 11/10.

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On a weekend I always take a punt on soccer 13. It's affiliated with Svenkaspel in Sweden. You need to get 13 games right. One of the things that helps you win money, is finding the potential upset games. So if all the favorites win, you may get 13 results, but you share the pool with many, winning nothing. SO you need to find at least 2 upsets every week.

If I look at the EPL games this weekend I just see no value on Arsenal. Hull are showing some form. They drew with Man United, beat United, and beat Liverpool. Form wise they are flying. Can they repeat the formula against Arsenal (who lost twice last week) ? Why not ! I think Hull look a much better unit than Watford ...

Can you imagine the mood in that stadium after 35 minutes, when it's still 0-0. Can Hull keep it close, and snatch a goal ? The longer they do this the more pressure gets heaped on Arsenal, and the uglier the mood will become. Their game plan is obvious. Defend well, frustrate, and hopefully catch em from a set piece or a break, when Arsenal over commit later on.

The closeness of the relegation battle has these teams fired up. They are thinking 'we can survive and get out of this'. There is no 'Aston Villa' scenario from last season, where they just gave up. With a 6 team, close relegation battle, 36 points will survive this season. All these battlers are highly motivated, because they can all save themselves (halleluja)

I have a small wager on Hull to win at 15

I'm  little wary of Everton away from home. It's hard to win consistently on the road. Only very good teams, on top form can do it, and I feel that Everton are still a work in progress. 

My other surprise result is Burnley vrs Chelsea. At some stage Chelsea are going to miss a gear and have a bad day. It's not like they have been banging in away goals. In 4 of their last 5 away they have managed 1 goal or less. So they will probably need 2 goals to win this, considering that Burnley have scored in their last 8 at home. I rate Sean Dyche. A really underrated manager, at an 'unfashionable' club. What he has achieved there is nothing short of a miracle !

Double chance on Burnley is 3 , while the Burnley win is 9. I think Burnley have to play a tight 1st half here. The HT draw, Burnley win is priced at 21.

Those are my two upsets, and if one of them comes in I would be happy. Good luck for the weekend !

Edited by neilovan
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Team news, copied from Reddit FantasyPL subreddit:

 

Arsenal v Hull

Man United v Watford

Middlesbrough v Everton

Stoke v Palace

Sunderland v Southampton

  • Sunderland: David Moyes: "John O'Shea and Adnan Januzaj have trained and hopefully both will be available. Jack Rodwell's not available; it's not as bad as we first feared but nevertheless we think it'll keep him out for a few weeks. Jordan [Pickford]'s back but the medical team would really like him to complete the time that the surgeon set for his recovery. Jordan won't be involved but what I will say is that he's very close to being ready." http://www.safc.com/news/team-news/2017/february/team-news-pre-southampton

  • Southampton: Sofiane Boufal will miss this weekend’s trip to Sunderland, following the ankle injury he sustained against West Ham United. Otherwise there is no other new injury worries ahead of this Saturday’s game. https://southamptonfc.com/news/2017-02-09/team-news-claude-puel-pre-sunderland-southampton

West Ham v West Brom

Liverpool v Spurs

Burnley v Chelsea

Swansea v Leicster

  • Swansea: Paul Clement revealed Ki Sung-Yueng will miss the Leicester clash with a knee injury which could rule him out for between three and four weeks. Jordan Ayew is set to feature having arrived in Wales on Wednesday following his deadline-day move from Aston Villa: "Jordan is in good shape. He joined in training this morning, he is ready to go and he will be involved on Sunday, although I haven’t decided on the team yet." http://www.swanseacity.net/news/article/2016-17/paul-clement-swansea-city-3565905.aspx

  • Leicester: Claudio Ranieri: "Leo [Ulloa] is not yet [in contention]. But getting better. Slimani is not 100%, I will see how he recovers from the last match." https://twitter.com/LCFC/status/829996211742576640

Bournemouth v Man City

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Here are some interesting football streaks from Premier League:

Leicester have failed to win their last 14 away matches in Premier League.
There have been over 2 goals scored in Swansea's last 12 matches in Premier League.

You can find very interesting Football Betting Streaks for today's games on ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-11-02-2017

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1 hour ago, Magic0024 said:

Here are some interesting football streaks from Premier League:

Leicester have failed to win their last 14 away matches in Premier League.
There have been over 2 goals scored in Swansea's last 12 matches in Premier League.

You can find very interesting Football Betting Streaks for today's games on ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-11-02-2017

Looks like a 2-1 or 3-1 win for Swansea seems statistically viable! I think Vardy missing could be a blessing in disguise though. He's been terrible this season. Clearly last season gone to his head or he's not adapted his game now that defenders have worked him out.

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First foray into this thread after a long time lurking. Complete amateur so don't pay much heed! :D

 

Arsenal v Hull - Hull +2 @ 2.0 

Hull are coming off a great win against Liverpool and managed to keep a clean sheet at Old Trafford ten days ago - don't see them getting thumped here. Arsenal may edge out the win but they'll be jittery and the longer they go without scoring the worse the crowd will get.

 

Middlesbrough v Everton - Everton @ 2.10

Not much to like about this Boro side, no win in their last 7 PL games. Backed them heavily to go down at 3/1 a few weeks ago. Everton are in fine form and if Lukaku turns up he'll be the best player on the pitch by a mile.

 

Sunderland v Southampton - Sunderland @ 3.80

Feels like too much value to pass up. Sunderland and the SoL ought to be buzzing coming off that cracking away win and these home fixtures against middling sides are where they're going to have to start picking up points if they're to escape yet again. Southampton have lost their last three PL away days to Everton, Burnley & Swansea.

 

Stoke v Crystal Palace - U2.5 Goals @ 1.7

Allardyce will have been furious after last week's debacle and I imagine Palace will have worked on little else but being a tighter defensive unit this week. Meanwhile only 1 of Stoke's last 6 games has reached the over in this market. Predict a cagey, low-scoring affair.

 

The Accumulator @ 27

1pt on each single, 0.5pt on the accumulator. Took these prices on B365 a couple of days ago. Good luck all.

 

 

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19 hours ago, Bett said:

I like betting on the early games, so i will have a crack at Arsenal vs Hull. An Arsenal win seems like a foregone conclusion, being at home and fighting to stay in the title race. But i'm looking at goals here. Emirates usually delivers with goals against teams fighting relegation.

Over 2.5 goals ; 1.50 @Bet365

 

Hmm... got this one a bit wrong. Pity.

19 hours ago, Bett said:

 

 

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Was with you on the reasoning. Arsenal seem to regularly hammer Hull etc at the Emirates 4/5 -1. Arsenal players motivation maybe not quite there to really put to teams to bed as they don't believe they can catch Chelsea. I think there will be value in backing against Arsenal as the season progresses.

 

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41 minutes ago, Icongene said:

@Bronxie If you're an amateur  you'll be in good company on here! :lol

@Icongene, we are professionals... professionals of inconsistency!

On the Arsenal game, it's a shame Clattenburg had to ruin it. Never liked the guy. He used to always ruin games with his ego in the Football League. Still don't rate him. Think he loves himself too much.

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1 minute ago, andrewcalo said:

What did he do? Penalty?

Professionals of inconsistency...confederacy of dunces!

On another note - Sunderland are a bunch of wankers aren't they?

Clattenburg missed the handball and should have sent off Gibbs.

Southampton realising they can't risk sitting back and relying on their back-line. Gabbiadini could be the life saver they need!

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Some nice results this week lads but we were expecting to get some decent outcomes given the fixtures. Anybody backing a convincing win for Manchester City tonight? I'm thinking they could win 3-0 or 3-1. So tempted by the -2 handicap at a push. More likely to play it safe and go -1.

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