Weekend > Feb 11th - 13th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

It was a fairly settled week as far as results were concerned last weekend for the Premier League. Here are the odds and ratings for next weekend. What do you guys reckon? Liverpool versus Tottenham could prove a crucial game in the title race. The Reds might be on a poor run of form but this is the sort of big game where Klopp will get his players pumped. I'm tempted by the Liverpool win against the form book but think a draw is more likely.

@bet man, you correctly predicted Manchester United to defeat Leicester but I don't think any of us thought they'd do it that easily. As @vasilli07 quite rightly says, Leicester could well be going down. Losing Kante, Mahrez and Vardy lacking the work rate and motivation they had last season (probably due to huge pay rises), and the defence looking out of sorts means they are struggling. Too many problems to fix which could lead to big issues.

@andrewcalo, you are becoming the master of the audacious bet. Not that any are coming off right now but we all love your endeavour! What have you got lined up this weekend? Swansea will surely be going for the win against the Foxes?

@DrBetter, great to see you getting involved in the chat. Do you have any bets in the pipeline this weekend?

A fair few of you saw the Everton win coming but did you see 6-3? Or Lukaku scoring four goals? Well done to those of you that did.

@sajtion, my bets and outcomes almost mirrored yours this week mate. Mixed fortunes but hopefully we can do better this week with some games that appear a bit easier to predict.

@Mindfulness, what is going through your head as a Crystal Palace fan right now? Is anything other than a loss likely away to Stoke? Beat them and it could be the trigger that drags them into the relegation dog fight as well.

@Pep004, as usual, always great to have your input. Great decision by Pep to start Gabriel over Aguero. Can they play together? I've heard rumours Aguero is off to Real Madrid at the end of the season hence his reduced game time to avoid him hitting bonus payment targets. Surely not true!

@mrclubbie, good shouts on Watford and West Brom. What margin did you go for on Tottenham? Thought they were going to win by 2-3 once they went 1-0 up. Middlesbrough are in trouble.

@Magic0024, send us some of those top stats you dish out every week mate!

@Icongene, taking Chelsea at those odds almost feels like you had free money in hindsight. Brilliant work.

@betcatalog, smashing those BTTS bets again! Keep those coming fella!

Brilliant to see the likes of @YNWA, @Bronxie, and @arsenalfh posting in here as well. Keep the posts coming guys! Special tip of the cap to arsenalfh for making that Hull call as well!

[sajtion]

one of the strongest memories i have is when hull beat arsenal in 2008 and i even remember the goal. i was waiting to cash in my coupon and then bang. it was a huge disappointment. it still lingers in my mind all these years and for that reason i cannot get involved in this match. i think there are few players in arsenal that are not happy to be there, ozil and sanchez. this will be hard match for arsenal because hull are fighting hard and with vigor. anything could happen here and i would not be surprised if hull got something. it's probably best not to add it your banker coupon.

Edited February 6, 2017 by sajtion

[vasilli07]

I will be all over Swansea DNB if Ranieri is still the manager of Leicester.

[Masih]

what are the predictions for these matches coming 11th february ?

Arsenal 2-1

Lvp vS TTH - Tie

MNU - 2-0

MIDS vs EVE - MIds 1-0

Stoke 1-0

WHU 2-0

chelsea 2-1

Swansea - 1-0

MNC - 1-0

 

 

[sajtion]

write some arguments for your selections fella otherwise what the point. anyone can do guessing game but it means nothing without some reason to back it up.

[mrclubbie]

Burnley vs Chelsea

Burnley's home form has been solid, 9W 1D 3L and 21 scored 11 conceded. Of course, Chelsea's away form is need not further mentioning.

Goal-line has been relatively tight as well for Burnley's recent matches, the last time they won and lost by more than 1 goal was in Dec16 (3/12/16 Stoke 2-0 Burnley and 31/12/16 Burnley 4-1 Sunderland). And out of their 13 EPL home matches this season, the 3 losses they had were of 1-goal margin.

Chelsea has been in a good form, top of the league with a 9-point cushion. Away form has been great, with only 2D (Swansea, Liverpool) and 2L (Arsenal, Tottenham).

Statistically, both sides not met often in recent years (only 6 times since 21st century). Reverse fixture for this season, Chelsea won 3-0 against Burnley at Stamford Bridge.

I am somewhat optimistic that Burnley will continue to perform well on Turf Moof. After all, it appears that their home form is their only chance to stay afloat in the EPL due to their horrendous away form.

 

[KikoCy]

2 hours ago, mrclubbie said:

Burnley vs Chelsea

Burnley's home form has been solid, 9W 1D 3L and 21 scored 11 conceded. Of course, Chelsea's away form is need not further mentioning.

Goal-line has been relatively tight as well for Burnley's recent matches, the last time they won and lost by more than 1 goal was in Dec16 (3/12/16 Stoke 2-0 Burnley and 31/12/16 Burnley 4-1 Sunderland). And out of their 13 EPL home matches this season, the 3 losses they had were of 1-goal margin.

Chelsea has been in a good form, top of the league with a 9-point cushion. Away form has been great, with only 2D (Swansea, Liverpool) and 2L (Arsenal, Tottenham).

Statistically, both sides not met often in recent years (only 6 times since 21st century). Reverse fixture for this season, Chelsea won 3-0 against Burnley at Stamford Bridge.

I am somewhat optimistic that Burnley will continue to perform well on Turf Moof. After all, it appears that their home form is their only chance to stay afloat in the EPL due to their horrendous away form.

 

I am in two minds about this.

I see this game going U2.5 but Burnley double chance might have some value.

Will Chelsea become complacent with their points lead?

Edited February 7, 2017 by KikoCy

[mrclubbie]

1 hour ago, KikoCy said:

I am in two minds about this.

I see this game going U2.5 but Burnley double chance might have some value.

Will Chelsea become complacent with their points lead?

That is also a possibility as well. Any main/major injuries/suspensions for both sides ?

[StevieDay1983]

20 hours ago, vasilli07 said:

I will be all over Swansea DNB if Ranieri is still the manager of Leicester.

I'll be all over the Swansea win if Ranieri is still in charge!

I also listened to a fan rant about the issues at Liverpool and it seems like things might take a bit of time to fix. Repetitive tactical mistakes are deep-lying there so I wouldn't back them to get a win this weekend.

[andrewcalo]

18 hours ago, Masih said:

what are the predictions for these matches coming 11th february ?

Arsenal 2-1

Lvp vS TTH - Tie

MNU - 2-0

MIDS vs EVE - MIds 1-0

Stoke 1-0

WHU 2-0

chelsea 2-1

Swansea - 1-0

MNC - 1-0

 

 

I think Liverpool game will be called off because of rain so don't bother betting on that or you will lose your money.

I happen to know the forth official in the West Ham match. Bent as fuck so more likely 7-0.

I have been called up for the Swansea game and I am playing in goal so that will probably swing Leicester's way as I have a stag do the Friday night (I'm getting married next week).

I am also new manager for Chelsea after Conte got hit by a bus but we are keeping it under wraps for now and using 3D to make it look like he is still in charge. Anyway, I plan on winning that game by at least a 100% margin. That's a banker. 

More thoughts as they come to me...

Edited February 7, 2017 by andrewcalo

[StevieDay1983]

Wrong thread, @andrewcalo! 

The Liverpool game might actually be called off due to rain though. Rain from the tears of all the Reds fans crying as their side relentlessly try to gurgenpress (spelling?) their way to victory against a side that just sits back and counters to nullify it.

[vasilli07]

3 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I'll be all over the Swansea win if Ranieri is still in charge!

I also listened to a fan rant about the issues at Liverpool and it seems like things might take a bit of time to fix. Repetitive tactical mistakes are deep-lying there so I wouldn't back them to get a win this weekend.

The board has just given him the vote of confidence so I guess he will be there till this weekend.

[Masih]

So what is the final prediction for these matches ?

[StevieDay1983]

4 hours ago, Masih said:

So what is the final prediction for these matches ?

If I was pushed right now I would say...

Arsenal beat Hull (The Tigers will put up a spirited fight but we all know Arsene Wenger will turn things around just enough to keep his job safe)

Liverpool draw Tottenham (Still tempted by the away win but we shall see)

Manchester United beat Watford (Who would bet against Mourinho's side right now?)

Everton beat Middlesbrough (Karanka's side are in freefall right now and the Toffees are looking class again)

Stoke beat Crystal Palace (That said, this is the sort of game I can see the Eagles getting something from)

Sunderland draw Southampton (Even though the Saints are the better side, I think the long travel distance could play a part. Sunderland have only lost once to Southampton at home in the last seven matches at the Stadium of Light... the only problem is that it was the last time they played there)

West Ham beat West Brom (Bilic is turning things around with the Hammers and I can see them just edging the Baggies)

Chelsea beat Burnley (Dyche's side have an awesome home record but the one team that might be too much for them is Conte's team)

Swansea beat Leicester (Ranieri has been given the dreaded vote of confidence. He appears to be a dead man walking. It seems hard to imagine where the next Foxes points will come from. I'm doubtful it will be here)

Manchester City beat Bournemouth (Howe has issues to resolve down south and I can't see him fixing them here against an improving City side)

 

[andrewcalo]

The dreaded vote of confidence lol

in other words...advance notice of marching orders.

Edited February 8, 2017 by andrewcalo

[StevieDay1983]

I don't understand the vote of confidence. When was the last time a manager turned things around from such a desperate state? That said, does Ranieri deserve the extra time after last season? It just feels like complacency is everywhere at Leicester after last season. I'm interested to see how they do in the Champions League when that restarts but that's a conversation for another section!

@andrewcalo, how are you Swansea fans feeling about the game? Expected win? Or wary given your positions?

[andrewcalo]

I agree in a way, I am having a difficult time seeing past a Leicester loss tonight...but it's home ground, and Leicester love to surprise. So I am in two minds...I think they might sneak a win...

I also think that Ranieri didn't do much last season - which was precisely the level of input he needed to have, because all his squad were on fire...so a smart manager. This season it was never going to be the same. In a way, getting relegated this season would funnily enough add to the legendary nature of the win last season wouldn't it?

I got my old man and brother tickets for the Leicester game and it's definitely a game we can win. Will Leicester play their socks off? We couldn't have asked for a better time to play them, home, FA cup replay and Champions League games for them, and we are still underdogs...a draw no bet is the safest option...but it is our game to lose, without a doubt.

[Masih]

19 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

If I was pushed right now I would say...

Arsenal beat Hull (The Tigers will put up a spirited fight but we all know Arsene Wenger will turn things around just enough to keep his job safe)

Liverpool draw Tottenham (Still tempted by the away win but we shall see)

Manchester United beat Watford (Who would bet against Mourinho's side right now?)

Everton beat Middlesbrough (Karanka's side are in freefall right now and the Toffees are looking class again)

Stoke beat Crystal Palace (That said, this is the sort of game I can see the Eagles getting something from)

Sunderland draw Southampton (Even though the Saints are the better side, I think the long travel distance could play a part. Sunderland have only lost once to Southampton at home in the last seven matches at the Stadium of Light... the only problem is that it was the last time they played there)

West Ham beat West Brom (Bilic is turning things around with the Hammers and I can see them just edging the Baggies)

Chelsea beat Burnley (Dyche's side have an awesome home record but the one team that might be too much for them is Conte's team)

Swansea beat Leicester (Ranieri has been given the dreaded vote of confidence. He appears to be a dead man walking. It seems hard to imagine where the next Foxes points will come from. I'm doubtful it will be here)

Manchester City beat Bournemouth (Howe has issues to resolve down south and I can't see him fixing them here against an improving City side)

 

Thanks man nice prediction. I will play on these because i was thinking the same.

[DrBetter]

Hi, thanks for these feedbacks... After last week, i'll be tempted to stay on Everton, with City, no major injuries for both.. 

I haven't any good feelings about Chelsea at Burnley or Stoke this week, for me Everton can't loose, it's just impossible, and City don't play in CL next week, they'll be on fire to progress and do a few good games more until Monaco, and as you said Bournemouth is currently very bad..

So I'll put my money on Everton in a draw no bet, combined with a City win at Bournemouth.

Total odds: 2.1

Good luck!

Edited February 9, 2017 by DrBetter

[KikoCy]

Provisional bets here, will have a further look tomorrow. Might not place wagers on all of them either.

West Ham - WBA

I can see a resurgence on West Ham's side, with Bilic's men looking up like the giant killers they were last season. The replacement of Payet with Snodgrass seems to be a positive one and the morale of the team is looking up.

Pulis' men are fit to go and keep the scoreline low as usual. Philips and Rondon have slowed down a bit but Morrisson seems to have stepped up.

I expect a cagey affair.

U2.5 @ 1.833 (58% for WH and 67% for WBA at FT)

HT X @ 2.15 -> the Hammers have been drawing 67% of their home games at HT and WBA drawing 67% of their away games at HT

 

Man Utd - Watford

Mourinho's men have some decent fixtures ahead and they cannot afford to drop any further points, especially at OT which used to be a fortress. As a United fan, I would hope Martial to start and Pogba to perhaps be given a break and come on as a sub. Zlatan signalled his intent in an interview where he reiterated his desire to keep them goals coming.

Watford won last week vs Arsenal away and will have high spirits but I think that result reflects more on Arsenal's ability than Watford's prowess.

U2.5 @ 2.25 (probably best value) -> 58% for United, 46% for Watford at FT & 67% and 58% for H2H respectively (I personally think H2H is irrelevant in EPL)

United to win 1-0 or 2-0 @ 3.40 (combo correct score)

 

Swansea - Leicester

Swansea look like someone lit a fire under their arse and they are feeling the pressure.

LEI on the other hand look to be in freefall. Ranieri given 'vote of confidence', team is tired from overtime in FA cup vs Derby too.

They struggled to beat Derby who were only playing 3-4 main players too. Granted, LEI rested their main players as they are anticipating this game but their away form speaks for itself (still winless!).

As you can deduce, my reasoning comes from Leicester's terrible situation/form.

Swansea +1/DC @ 1.33 for those playing doubles/trebles etc.

Swansea win @ 2.45

BTTS @ 1.75

1 & BTTS @ 4.6

Obviously stake accordingly.

 

Middlesbrough vs Everton

Everton looked formed now and I will back them again for a win. Lukaku being streaky as he is, scored 4 goals last week and I don't see why he cannot build on that. No surprise omissions here, expect them to be full strength.

Middlesbrough will probably be missing Ramirez for this game. They have looked a bit toothless and tired. I can't see their defence withstanding Everton's frontline and moreso, they seem incapable of outscoring opponents.

The quality mismatch here sees me backing Everton.

Everton win @ 2.1 is easily the best bet here.

Not even going to bother with any other markets, I will take the 2.1 and run.

 

Bournemouth vs City

Bournemouth will be reeling after last week's result. It's funny how February sets apart the boys from the men and they also look to be suffering. Daniels and Francis potentially might be back which I reckon would be a major boost.

Unfortunately, they are coming up against a City side feeling the pressure of the top 4, Pep looks fired up and Jesus seems to be replacing Kun.

City also 2nd in away table and Bournemouth languishing around 10th.

Honestly, quality speaks for itself but I don't like most of these markets.

O3.5 @ 2.30 -> small stake from me

 

Liverpool vs Spurs

This is a massive game, not for punters but for all fans of the EPL.

Liverpool play great vs the top 6 and unexpectedly drop points elsewhere. Mane back and Lallana moved back to midfield as per usual.

Spurs have the quality but not sure if they will cause an upset. I can see this game going either way and Liverpool will have a statement to make given their abysmal start to 2017.

BTTS @ 1.66

Correct Score 1-1 @ 7

 

Arsenal vs Hull

Again, teams who look like their fortunes are changing. I personally think Silva has done a great job so far at Hull, even if he sold Snodgrass. They look a different team and he has obviously brought in his own staff but also players.

Arsenal look to be embarking on their usual February crumble stage and this complicates the markets for this game IMO. 

This game is a must-win for both teams.

Not a lot of value here but being the Greek that I am, might punt on Hull.

Hull +2 EH @ 2

 

Burnley - Chelsea

I believe the other punters here covered it well. home form vs general form/quality.

Chelsea should win it, as a United supporter I hope they don't but Hazard had a blinder last week and might be up for a few more.

Burnley defend really well at home and seem to get decisions go their way at Turf Moor.

U2.5 @ 2.00

Chelsea 0-1 or 0-2 (combo correct score) @ 3.6

 

Sunderland - Soton

Sunderland surprised everyone by smashing Palace last week. Great result for them as they look to peel themselves off the relegation zone. Confidence will do this team wonders and Defoe will lead the boys in the battle.

Soton haven't impressed me at all this season, perhaps defensively at times but that's about it. Since Austin's injury, none of their players have really stepped up (looking at you Redmond and Tadic) perhaps with the exception of Jay Rodriguez.

Leaning towards BTTS @ 1.90 or Sunderland +1/DC @ 1.775.

Not touching this one for now, I await other punters thoughts.

 

Best of luck.

 

 

[KikoCy]

On 2/8/2017, 10:28:23, StevieDay1983 said:

If I was pushed right now I would say...

Arsenal beat Hull (The Tigers will put up a spirited fight but we all know Arsene Wenger will turn things around just enough to keep his job safe)

Liverpool draw Tottenham (Still tempted by the away win but we shall see)

Manchester United beat Watford (Who would bet against Mourinho's side right now?)

Everton beat Middlesbrough (Karanka's side are in freefall right now and the Toffees are looking class again)

Stoke beat Crystal Palace (That said, this is the sort of game I can see the Eagles getting something from)

Sunderland draw Southampton (Even though the Saints are the better side, I think the long travel distance could play a part. Sunderland have only lost once to Southampton at home in the last seven matches at the Stadium of Light... the only problem is that it was the last time they played there)

West Ham beat West Brom (Bilic is turning things around with the Hammers and I can see them just edging the Baggies)

Chelsea beat Burnley (Dyche's side have an awesome home record but the one team that might be too much for them is Conte's team)

Swansea beat Leicester (Ranieri has been given the dreaded vote of confidence. He appears to be a dead man walking. It seems hard to imagine where the next Foxes points will come from. I'm doubtful it will be here)

Manchester City beat Bournemouth (Howe has issues to resolve down south and I can't see him fixing them here against an improving City side)

 

 

Agree on most parts.

What about Stoke U2.5?

[sajtion]

i think i will skip premiership this time. i don't fancy getting involved in any matches. i think man utd, chelsea and man city will all probably win but odds are too low so i will concentrate on lower leagues in this round

[andrewcalo]

@KikoCy cheers for the in-depth analysis. I for one always appreciate the effort mate and you've saved me from some bad betting in the past.

[StevieDay1983]

6 hours ago, sajtion said:

i think i will skip premiership this time. i don't fancy getting involved in any matches. i think man utd, chelsea and man city will all probably win but odds are too low so i will concentrate on lower leagues in this round

You're not tempted by shoving them into a three fold or maybe a four fold with a less predictable game? You know, just for a laugh! 

[sajtion]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

You're not tempted by shoving them into a three fold or maybe a four fold with a less predictable game? You know, just for a laugh! 

i never get involved in a match in early kick off like arsenal v hull. it cost me too many times and i swore to avoid them in the future. i also never bet on matches on monday. can you imagine a scenario where i have coupon with all correct before that final game and got let down. i would be also be tempted to cash in by then. i have included chelsea on one of one weekend coupons but that's it

[sajtion]

i really think sam allardyce has made crystal palace worse since he became manager so what can we expect from them after that thrashing last week. they will probably improve but not by much and i think stoke will beat them. i've had change of mind regarding sunderland. now i see they may get a victory here. that win last week was huge result for them and it's no so hard not to see them build on that victory. they will have to be on their ace game as southampton have potential to make it difficult match but have recently completely gone of course. sunderland to win

[Icongene]

I like Stoke too. Palace are absolute horseshit and having to go to Stoke is tough given the thrashing Sunderland dished out.

[Mindfulness]

Much tougher EPL card this week with hardly any value to speak of imo. Maybe Sunderland on a + since I don't like Southampton without Van Dijk and Fonte. They just look like one of those marooned in midtable, here have 3pts off us teams. Imagine what they'll be like after the league cup final, probably wont win another game for the rest of the season and stay up with 29 points due to Palace and Middlesbrough being total shite.

Anyway no bets for me as yet, Sunderland price seems to reflect ELO ratings so hardly value bet of the century in any case. Your gut instincts have to take over more in this part of the season and I don't have strong feelings for any selections at present.

Can't complain though, markets have opened up in recent weeks with some nice valuation errors here and there, it's been good.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Mindfulness

[Magic0024]

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Premier League games:

Middlesbrough have been drawing at half-time in 42% of their home matches this season.
Sunderland have lost 50% of their home matches this season, but only 29% of their last 7.

You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-10-02-2017