Weekend > Feb 4th & 5th

[StevieDay1983]

Please find the weekend's Premier League odds attached. We will delve into this more deeply after tonight's games have been completed. Ratings will be posted tomorrow morning when all fixtures for the previous round are finished. Feel free to get some early chat started.

[arsenalfh]

Hull City v Liverpool

Like I said midweek Hull have improved massively under Marco Silva. Their shot ratio is much better and yet again they were better than a relegation side when getting a draw against Man Utd in Old Trafford. Liverpool are better against sides who tend to come at them more which is why their record against the top 6 is so impressive but have been involved in the two of the four biggest shocks this season at the bookie's prices when losing at home to Swansea and away at Bournemouth. At the prices I think Hull are good value to take something from this game and again I'll dutch the draw and home win.

0.8pts Hull Win @ 7/1 Betfair

1.2pts Draw @ 4/1 Paddy Power

[StevieDay1983]

10 minutes ago, arsenalfh said:

Hull City v Liverpool

Like I said midweek Hull have improved massively under Marco Silva. Their shot ratio is much better and yet again they were better than a relegation side when getting a draw against Man Utd in Old Trafford. Liverpool are better against sides who tend to come at them more which is why their record against the top 6 is so impressive but have been involved in the two of the four biggest shocks this season at the bookie's prices when losing at home to Swansea and away at Bournemouth. At the prices I think Hull are good value to take something from this game and again I'll dutch the draw and home win.

0.8pts Hull Win @ 7/1 Betfair

1.2pts Draw @ 4/1 Paddy Power

Huge call but it certainly has weight. It's an interesting time for Klopp at Liverpool. He is acting the same as he was when things started to go wrong at Dortmund. I just don't think he bought effectively enough in the summer to strengthen the defence. Totally agree that this is a game that Hull could very well win. I'm tempted by the Asian Handicap 0.

[arsenalfh]

1 minute ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Huge call but it certainly has weight. It's an interesting time for Klopp at Liverpool. He is acting the same as he was when things started to go wrong at Dortmund. I just don't think he bought effectively enough in the summer to strengthen the defence. Totally agree that this is a game that Hull could very well win. I'm tempted by the Asian Handicap 0.

Liverpool are fine I think. They've lost a few cup games but in the league bar the Swansea game they've been pretty good considering they've been missing two key players in Mane and Coutinho recently. Squad depth is the issue for me but now they only have the league to focus on and I expect them to finish the season strongly. This is more a bet because I believe Hull's improvement has been underestimated rather than a bet against Liverpool although I do feel they're slightly underrated in big games but possibly slightly overrated against the weakest sides.

[sajtion]

hull city have been better somewhat but are still poor side. one thing to remember is they played man utd twice in four days and because of that they were able perform better and get draw. i expected liverpool to fold against chelsea but they stayed strong and claimed their own draw against probably league winners this season. i don't see hull getting anything here, liverpool will be do enough to win

[Pep004]

As I like to discuss about football, I see that I will need to re-join this part of forum, as there is not as much interests by other forum members in "my leagues".  

Hull bought Grosicki from Rennes, and I think that he could be a decent player for them. Anyway, they were just lucky yesterday. Really really lucky. United deserved to win. 

Edited February 2, 2017 by Pep004

[StevieDay1983]

Please find the ratings for this weekend's games attached. Does this offer you a better insight into what bets you will be choosing this weekend?

[Mindfulness]

21 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Please find the ratings for this weekend's games attached. Does this offer you a better insight into what bets you will be choosing this weekend?

The ELO is one of the key technicals for me these days, I always find it helpful.

[michaelwinsall]

24 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

The ELO is one of the key technicals for me these days, I always find it helpful.

Please what's ELO

[Mindfulness]

41 minutes ago, michaelwinsall said:

Please what's ELO

In general:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

Punters lounge ELO ratings - based on a teams attacking performance:

https://www.punterslounge.com/football/ratings

[andrewcalo]

Lots of draws this week...historically (as in last five years) we are going to be seeing at least three draws this week and either a large percentage of home wins, or away. Trend is home this season so I am minded thus far -

Chelsea v Arsenal HOME WIN

Crystal Palace v Sunderland  HOME WIN

Everton v Bournemouth DRAW

Hull v Liverpool AWAY WIN

Southampton v West Ham HOME WIN

Watford v Burnley DRAW

West Bromwich v Stoke HOME WIN

Tottenham v Middlesbrough HOME WIN

Man City v Swansea HOME WIN

Leicester v Man United DRAW

Edited February 2, 2017 by andrewcalo

[sajtion]

i have so many doubts about this weekends matches that i can't decide on them with full confidence. i'm not even 50% percent sure of them. first and foremost burnley doesn't have have great away form but their previous away matches were close shaves

let's see burnley away losses recently

2-1 loss to arsenal

2-1 loss to liverpool

2-1 loss to tottenham 

...and before these games had 2-1 loss to man city albeit at home

this in it itself is not too bad considering they managed to score against all top sides so that brings a question in my mind. how good are watford really to beat burnley, until arsenal game i would say they were terrible and had gone seven matches without win. was arsenal poor or were watford really good? i think burnley is building confidence based on home form and going into away matches with positive attitude and motivation otherwise they would have lost above matches by bigger margins. i also feel its not long until they get their first away win of the season. sean dyche would love to break the buck so for punters the question is do you go with the notion that burnley can't win away or think of something else. i personally cannot back watford blindly just because they beat arsenal. i see a trend with burnley and they will cross that finish line at 90 minutes and get the first away victory soon.

 

[andrewcalo]

This happened with Swansea as they progressed in their fist Premier league seasons...

Edited February 3, 2017 by andrewcalo

[Pep004]

Uh.. I need to say, that in my eyes there is value on Arsenal +0,5 this time. 

[Mindfulness]

The price on Palace this weekend is so short it's laughable, 1.69 best price at the time of writing this - just ridiculous.

We have been struggling to win our home games for well over a year now, especially against 'lesser' opposition who come and shutup shop. Yes there is a quality gap between the two teams but Palace have simply not been creating enough goal scoring chances under Allardyce to be confident of beating a gritty David Moyes side.

You could argue Palace have some mommentum with win at Bournemouth and playing squad now looking the strongest it's ever been since we've been back in the EPL but the technicals don't lie.

ELO ratings show teams are almost identical in attacking play (slight advantage to Sunderland infact). So what are the markets basing the price on? Palace's vastly superior defence? Incredible home form? Obviously not in either case.

Palace will have received a psychological boost from midweek victory but Sunderland fixture really is a pressure game. Technicals aside, I believe Palace should be priced as favourites here but more like 2.00 - 2.10 not 1.69

[mrclubbie]

Looking at Watford and West Brom to win, as well as a comfortable margin for Spurs

Edited February 3, 2017 by mrclubbie

[Magic0024]

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Premier League games:

Chelsea have won 91% of their home matches in the Premier League this season and have won 100% of their last 10 at home in all competitions.
West Ham United have lost 20% of their last 5 away matches in the Premier League.
Burnley have lost 90% of their away matches this season.

You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-03-02-2017

[sajtion]

if arsenal had not lost that match to watford i would be happy to be on chelsea but now i know they will respond strongly after that defeat even without wenger on the sidelines. he would have been giving them earful of criticism for their lack of focus and effort. we also know arsenal has potential to play really good so that brings a real possibility of a draw.

i see west brom as likely to win this match at home but stoke make it so hard for teams to break them down. i don't see more than a goal in this match and it could swing either way so i am happy to leave it alone

bournemouth shouldn't give too much trouble to everton especially since they didn't even manage to score a goal last time and they concede too softly and too often. everton are typically strong at home and unbeaten in last six so easy decision

Edited February 3, 2017 by sajtion

[StevieDay1983]

18 hours ago, Pep004 said:

Uh.. I need to say, that in my eyes there is value on Arsenal +0,5 this time. 

Arsenal are the one Premier League side I never bet on. One week they are slamming teams 5-0 and the next they are losing at home to relegation battlers. Totally unpredictable. Arsene Wenger seems to really struggle against managers like Conte so I can see Chelsea getting the win now his side is more settled compared to earlier in the season. It will be close but a narrow win is likely.

[andrewcalo]

The old man has to go.

[malabgd]

West Bromwich v Stoke City

West Bromwich: Marc Wilson (d, newcomer, doubtful), Brendan Galloway (3/0 d), Jonny Evans (17/1 d)

Stoke City: Glen Johnson (14/0 d), Xherdan Shaqiri (14/3 m), Ramadan Sobhi (7/1 f, national selection), Jonathan Walters (16/2 f), Geoff Cameron (7/0 d), Jack Butland (0/0 g), Stephen Ireland (0/0 m)

 

Tottenham v Middlesbrough

Tottenham: Danny Rose (18/2 d), Jan Vertonghen (20/0 d), Erik Lamela (9/1 m), Kieran Trippier (3/0 d), Georges-Kevin N'Koudou (5/0 f)

Middlesbrough: Calum Chambers (16/0 d, doubtful), George Friend (16/0 d), Gaston Ramirez (17/2 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[arsenalfh]

6 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Arsenal are the one Premier League side I never bet on. One week they are slamming teams 5-0 and the next they are losing at home to relegation battlers. Totally unpredictable. Arsene Wenger seems to really struggle against managers like Conte so I can see Chelsea getting the win now his side is more settled compared to earlier in the season. It will be close but a narrow win is likely.

Wenger beat Conte 3-0 in their only meeting to date as far as I know?

[vasilli07]

I'm going with Chelsea win. Like Liverpool recently, Arsenal has not been playing well at all just that they had more luck. They can be given credit for being resilient but they should never be 0-3 down against Bournmouth, needing a injury time pk to beat Burnley(worst away team in the league) and down 0-2 to Watford and go on to lose it. This is the game that will kill off their fading title hopes.

I'm hoping Chelsea won't play for a draw as it can help maintain the distance between them and Arsenal.

Edited February 4, 2017 by vasilli07

[Icongene]

I've taken Chelsea at 1.91 too.

Arsenal, to me are mentally weak and it's been the case for a few seasons. Im asking myself this; do this Arsenal team believe they can get a result and do they believe they can catch Chelsea and win the league? I think the answers are no.

Chelsea are formidable at the moment and although there is the obvious risk of Arsenal being capable of a good performance I just feel mentally Conte's team has the upper hand. Also to add, Chelsea will be very keen to get back to winning ways after settling for a point at Anfield.

Edited February 4, 2017 by Icongene

[betcatalog]

Chelsea has the third best attack and the best defensive line with 16 conceded goals, total in the league has 14 to 23 over 2,5 and 9 to 11 over 2,5 in home. Arsenal have the second best attack in the division with 51 goals, but the defense of many times is treason. Overall league has 16 to 23 over 2,5 and the same account in goal gaola while away 8 to 11 over 2,5 and the same as the goal goal. I expect strong and open game where you can score both teams
CHELSEA FC vs ARSENAL FC @@ Both team to score, odds 1,75

[allthethings]

Something I've been doing a lot lately, with some success. First half over 1:

Chelsea-Arsenal 1.87

Hull-Liverpool 1.7

Everton-Bournemouth 1.74

You're hoping to avoid a 0-0, of course, and hoping to get lucky with one of the matches. Of the three, the one I like the least is the early match, because we know how uninspiring those can be. But certainly there are a lot of dodgy defenses on display here, and certainly favorites and dogs are motivated to get an edge early...I don't suspect we'll see these sides being cagey.

[allyhibs]

Everton look like the best bet in this round in the Premiership.

They're in good form at the moment, are very solid at home and if they come close to reaching the level of performance in their last 2 home games, they should take care of a struggling Bournemouth comfortably.

Everton win @ 8/11 looks good to me.

[DrBetter]

Hi Guys!

Is there serious reasons for not backing Everton? I've not seen their last games, but i feel like they're in a good rush, and it would be a good bet.. any thoughts? On a combination bet with tottenham? Or am i making a mistake?

thanks!

edit: (didn't saw the post just above before posting a few minutes later, thanks btw!)

Edited February 4, 2017 by DrBetter

[andrewcalo]

Lol.

The over 0.5 first half goal is great value a hell of a lot of the time I agree.

Edited February 4, 2017 by andrewcalo

[Pep004]

17 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Arsenal are the one Premier League side I never bet on. One week they are slamming teams 5-0 and the next they are losing at home to relegation battlers. Totally unpredictable. Arsene Wenger seems to really struggle against managers like Conte so I can see Chelsea getting the win now his side is more settled compared to earlier in the season. It will be close but a narrow win is likely.

I know and I totally agree with you. But odds were around 1,95 and I didn't agree with that. It's quite different now as odds are slowly going closer to 2,10. It's also interesting that Bet365 put it on 2,10 while Pinnacle holds 2,03.  Well.. I wouldn't touch this match, but I just said that if I would I would rather cover bigger part here (x2). Let's say that in my eyes is aprox. around 45% / 35% / 20%, which means that there is no value on Chelsea under 2,30.