Weekend Non League 28th -29th January

[Tanktop]

Hope you dont mind me starting the weekend non-league thread but I might be out tomorrow, I'm sure @StevieDay1983 will put the odds up shortly. 

Aldershot v York

Aldershot have an excellent record at home W10 D 1 L3, scoring 23 and conceding only 9, the second best home record in the league. And lost only 1 of their last 6 with a creditable draw away at Gateshead last week and are battling to get into the play-offs . York on the other hand prop up the league with 5 wins all season. Their away record is W1 D4 L9 scoring 10 and conceding 33, until last week they hadnt won since october, but beat Barrow at home on saturday! The reverse fixture Aldershot won 1-0. Aldershot @ 1.85

Interestingly, 10 of Aldershots 13 wins have been 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1, of those 10 matches 7 were at home, so 70% of Aldershots home wins were 1-0,2-0. or 2-1 (with me so far??).  Now York, out of their 14 defeats ,have lost by that score 6 times, all of which were away!! S0... Group goal bet (with Skybet) Aldershot to win by 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 i@ 2.88. 

FCU Manchester v Salford

A manc derby! Salford (apart from Halifax two weeks ago) were unbeaten since November; During taht time the form was W7 D3 L1, scoring 22 conceding 7 (4 of which were at Halifax). That defeat at Halifax has spurred them on, and continued their free scoring ways with a 4-0 win against Nuneaton(Grrr!). They are the leagues 2nd highest scorers with 50, amd are 3rd in the table. FCUM are in mid-table mediocrity and in the last 8 home matches they are W3 D6 L4. This may be a derby with a huge crowd, but i reckon FCUM will leave themselves open, and Salford will take advantage. Salford @ 1.91 

Harrogate v Gainsborough

Gainsborough are just above the relegation zone with a W6 D8 L12 with one of the worst defences in the league, away they are W2 D3 L8 scoring 17 but conceding 33! in all they concede an average of 2.54 goals per away match, in the last 10 games they have won once, against lowly altrincham. Harrogate are another team onthe verge of the play-offs and scoring goals for fun, in the last 10 home games- W6 D4 L4, although those 4 losses include Stockport, Darlington and Kidderminster. in those 10 games they scored 22, conceded 18. Inn total they have scored 44 (the second highest in the league), but have conceded 27! I dont think Gainsborough can take advantage of free scoring Harrogates defensive frailties. Harrogate @ 1.67

Hemel Hempstead v Eastbourne & Kidderminster v Sunny Nunny to follow....(got to get the kids from school) 

[StevieDay1983]

Cheers @Tanktop. Just having a small issue with posting the odds at the moment.

@addpea, @GazBlades, @bromsgrovegreen, @Woodgate, @Carl Iles, @dawwe92, @Kenton Schweppes, @TastesLikeTuna, @atish29, @sammummery, and @misky, what are you lads thinking for this weekend?

[Darran]

I would be very careful over the Aldershot v York game. I'm not for a second saying Aldershot won't win, but as Gary Mills said after the Barrow win for the first time this season he felt he put out a team who could win a game of football. I certainly think as far as the stats go you have to almost ignore what York have done before because the team is so different now.

[Sir Puntalot]

  

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the odds for the regional divisions as well for those of you that love to dig even deeper....

[Darran]

Gloucester v Worcester
A local derby between two out of form sides. Gloucester have only one once in 8 and Worcester haven’t won in 9 although they have picked up 5 draws including in their last 3 games. The problem for both sides has been scoring goals with Gloucester scoring 3 in their last 8 and Worcester 5 in the same period. Given that you might be tempted by the goalless draw, but I am actually backing the away side. All is not well in the Gloucester City camp at the moment as it was announced they would be playing their home games at Evesham next season which is a huge trip for fans. Naturally the fans aren’t happy and their mind will be on that on Saturday and you can’t help but think that the players will be affected as well. Worcester have been strong defensively in recent games and if they can manage to find the back of the net that might well be enough. The prices are just plain wrong as no way should the home side be odds on and Worcester are too big at 4/1 with Marathon.

Whitehawk v Weston-Super-Mare
Hopefully Whitehawk will be the gift that keeps on giving especially as Weston are a huge 11/5 with Bet365. The price makes no sense whatsoever. Weston were 4 games unbeaten until Dartford beat them 3-2 last time out, but given Dartford are in 3rd place that was still a decent effort. Also prior to that game they had won their last 3 on their travels. They look an improving side and Whitehawk are obviously anything but. Weston should be favourites so they rate the best bet of the week at 11/5.

Gosport v Maidenhead
I don’t really need to write too much here as it is hard to see anything but an easy Maidenhead win. With Gosport conceding goals for fun and Dave Tarpey already on 30 for the season for Maidenhead they should cover the -2 handicap which is 11/10 with Paddy Power.

St Neots v Hitchin
There are some poor teams in the Evo-Stik Southern Premier this season and St Neots are one of them. They have only won once in their last 10 games and 8 of those were losses. Hitchin meanwhile have won 7 of their last 8 games and sit just 3 points of the top of the table in 3rd place. You can get 5/6 with a couple of minor bookies, but 4/5 is readily available and it really should be shorter than that.

[Tanktop]

Aldershot V York

Cheers @addpea , though i think he said something similar when they won at N Ferriby. They looked a good team against Barrow, but Barrow had lost 3 in a row and tried to bully them. Aldershot play the ball (rather than the man) well, and think they have too much for York, though i agree it will be close.

ALDERSHOT will be looking to maintain their record of not dropping a single point at home to any side in the National League’s bottom half of the table this season when York City arrive in Hampshire. In fact, Andrai Jones’ 90th-minute consolation for Southport during their 2-1 defeat three weeks ago represented the first away goal a visiting team from the bottom 12 has scored at the Recreation Ground – a run that had stretched to ten-and-a-half hours of football. The six previous games on the Shots’ own soil against teams from the lower reaches had resulted in victories over Maidstone (1-0), Wrexham (2-0), North Ferriby (2-0), Solihull (2-0), Guiseley (1-0), and Woking (4-0).  Indeed, only leaders Lincoln and third-placed Tranmere can equal the Hampshire outfit’s record of ten home wins this term in the highest echelon of non-League football.

That form means the Shots currently sit three points and two places outside the play-off zone with much-travelled forward Scott Rendell their leading marksman on 11 goals.  Rendell, now 30, returned to his first club in the summer from Woking – the 11th different team he had plied his trade with since leaving the Recreation Ground in 2005. The former Luton and Torquay marksman has netted five times in his last four outings, including a Boxing Day hat-trick against former employers Woking.But his fellow forward Idris Kanu has attracted more attention this season, scoring three goals before his 17th birthday last month when he signed pro terms. Kanu, who arrived at the Shots after being released by West Ham’s academy via a September trial with Manchester United, has been courting interest from Arsenal, Manchester City, Leicester and Reading.

From http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/sport/yorkcityfc/15052413.Aldershot_hoping_to_maintain_100_per_cent_home_record_against_teams_in_bottom_half_of_the_National_League_table_against_York_City/#comments-anchor

Aldershot @ 1.85 

Aldershot to win 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 @ 2.88

Edited January 27, 2017 by Tanktop

[Tanktop]

FC United v Salford

Still going with this one based on form and the scoring ability of Salford

Salford @ 1.91

Harrogate v Gainsborough

Not going with Harrogate as both their top scorers Pittman and Ainge  are suspended.

Kidderminster v Nuneaton

Think Kidderminster @ 1.5 will beat the mighty Nuneaton, Nuneaton have a couple of defenders missing and Kiddys form is too good. I cant bet against my team, and if you do - i hope you lose!

Whitehawk v Weston super Mare great tip @addpea

‘The journey to Whitehawk is not a problem for the team’ Bartlett added, ‘the lads look forward to spending time together and they travel well. We have had some good results on the road and they are looking to bounce back from what was a narrow loss at Dartford’.  With the recent news of the loan extension of Lloyd Humphries from Cardiff City coupled with the addition of attacking midfielder, Frenchman Mohamed Chemlal, joining from Forest Green Rovers it will help add to the momentum and the upturn in morale the team have been building on. Sitting in 16th position with 25 points in as many games the Seagulls are fired up to continue their ascent of the league table. Kick-off is at 3pm at The Enclosed Ground, Brighton. (From http://www.westonsmareafc.co.uk/seagulls-travel-to-whitehawk-match-preview/)

Weston super Mare @ 2.88

Edited January 27, 2017 by Tanktop

[Darran]

If he did say something like that after the North Ferriby win I didn't see it. To be honest the side has changed even more since then anyway and it now looks like a squad which should really stay up. If anything York look the value in the game as it has been priced up on previous stats rather than the new look York side, but not a game for me to get involved in.

[Neubs]

I´m do not often post here bets for English Lower Leagues, but this weekend i made a Combo-Bet of Favourites. Think all 4 Teams are strong enough and should be wining his games. I made a bet with: Maidenhead+AFC Flyde+Bath and Bognor Regis...

Think all 4 can win his games easy, specially the 3 Home Teams Bath, Bognor and Flyde. Having all 3 a great form and playing against poor in Form Teams or weak Opponents. So i played this by a stake from 4/10 and @bet365

[StevieDay1983]

12 hours ago, Neubs said:

I´m do not often post here bets for English Lower Leagues, but this weekend i made a Combo-Bet of Favourites. Think all 4 Teams are strong enough and should be wining his games. I made a bet with: Maidenhead+AFC Flyde+Bath and Bognor Regis...

Think all 4 can win his games easy, specially the 3 Home Teams Bath, Bognor and Flyde. Having all 3 a great form and playing against poor in Form Teams or weak Opponents. So i played this by a stake from 4/10 and @bet365

Great to see you getting involved in here @Neubs. Will keep a keen eye to see how your bets do. We might be forcing you to post in here every week if you do well! 

[MuineBheag]

No time today lads ,im just giving u my double ,no analysis: 

Dover+Atletico pays around 9/5 goodluck

[Darran]

Nothing like landing a big price Nap!

[Neubs]

Only Bognor made my bet to a fail.... Great Calls again from you @addpea

[atish29]

great shout..cheers @addpea

[Tanktop]

Should have heeded your words on Aldershot @addpea , York were all over them apparently! . 3 out of 4 isnt bad though!