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Super Saturday - Cheltenham & Doncaster + Scoop6


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This weekends Jump racing promises to be one of the most exciting and informative for a very long time.

We have 9 races at Cheltenham in which the lowest grade is a Class 2 handicap and a further 4 races at Doncaster with similar credentials. In total we have no less than 9 graded races which includes the rearranged Clarence House Chase from Ascot.

We could have 13 races where apart from a couple of juveniles/novices the lowest rated runner will be around the 130 mark.

Obviously the ante-post markets will be massively affected and those holding decent slips on Thistlecrack, Uknowhatimeanharry, Vroom Vroom Mag, Un De Sceaux and Defi Du Seuil among others will be watching with intrepidation i'm sure.

The action continues in Ireland on Sunday where Faugheen rocks up for the first time in ages, i'm not sure what the Mullins yard are playing at this season but we are not being told the whole truth for some reason. I'll watch with interest but i'm not getting involved on anything that side of the Irish Sea until March.

Any thoughts or ante-post tips before they bolt up over the weekend?

 

Cheltenham

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Doncaster

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Sunday - Leopardstown

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Tote Scoop 6

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Selections

Leg 1: Burtons Well 15/2 Bet365

First visit to Cheltenham and a very competitive handicap to look at. 14 runners and half of them won last time out so plenty of horses on the upgrade. Of those previous winners I like Burtons Well and Mercian Prince and my narrow vote goes to the former who looks to have bags of scope now switched to fences.

Leg 2: Thomas Crapper 13/2 Paddy Power

Grade 3 action next and a race where many of these are on comeback missions or have been disappointing. Saphir Du Rheu is a typical example, he could bolt up if back to his best but i'm not so sure he's any value. Robin Dickin is in form so a chance is taken with Thomas Crapper who must surely deliver a decent prize one day.

Leg 3: Constantine Bay 

We go up north for the third leg and a quality 3m novice hurdle in store. All ten runners have won a race this season and some top yards represented. Nicky Henderson always does well here at Donny and i'm happy to side with Constantine Bay who has won at Haydock and Chepstow. The Nicholls horse Give Me A Copper is respected and could be the main danger.

Leg 4: Wholetsone 4/1 Skybet

A break of two hours and back to Cheltenham for the Neptune trial. I like this Wholestone from the Twiston-Davies camp, he has done everything asked of him and sets the standard on form. William Henry and Topofthegame are unexposed sorts from big yards and look the dangers.

Leg 5: Potters Cross 16/1 BetVictor

The big handicap of the day from Doncaster. Won in the past by some decent horses and best to concentrate on improving sorts. My idea of the winner is Potters Cross from the Rebecca Curtis yard, he won at Newbury last time and can looks tailor made for this. Out Sam and Coologue will be well fancied and are the best alternatives.

Leg 6: Unowhatimeanharry 6/5 Betfred

Final leg is the Cleeve Hurdle, quite surprising seeing as we have a hot favourite in Unowhatimeanharry. Anyway we shouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth and i have no hesitation in putting the improving Harry Fry runner up for this. Kotkikova will be interesting a bigger odds, he has been rerouted from Friday's card at Huntingdon.

 

Perm

16 bets

Leg1: Burtons Well, Mercian Prince
Leg 2: Thomas Crapper, Fox Appeal
Leg 3: Constantine Bay, Give Me A Copper
Leg 4: Wholestone
Leg 5: Potters Cross, Coologue
Leg 6: Unowhatimeanharry

:ok

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Never mad keen on backing trainer Jamie Osborne's ''hot fav's'' what with his very checkered past, maybe if he was just sending out the one runner but he's not So I'm passing on the showing paper Fav.

It's a maiden race so anything can happen and i like the looks of the John Ryan runner, a son of Galileo and even though Mr Ryan hasn't had a winner so far this year he is still a very HONEST trainer.

He has a rating of 80 and gets the services of Sir Adam Kirby and we know he gets this trip with ease, A.K looks the perfect partner for him and the 4yr old could show up tonight anything after a nice break, i can predict Adam sitting near the rear then stoking him up around the 2F marker and pick them all off one by one.

Maiden tag gone under a positive ride.

18:45 Kempton Park - Lord Napier.

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3.10 Kenilworth: Sun Met (Group 1), 10 furlongs:

New sponsor for the Met which suddenly has become the richest race in South Africa. Five Million Rand on stake (equates for roughly €350k) and all the top guns are running! Legal Eagle is the favourite after a commanding success in the Queen's Plate over a mile ten days ago, he also was a fine runner-up in the Met last season - though whether 10f is quite his optimum trip is debatable. The draw and pace situation is a slight worry in my mind, though on ratings he's incredibly hard to beat.

Classy Marinaresco comes closest rating wise and has a big shout judged on his tremendous runner-up performance in last years Durban July. 10f will suit down to the grounds here, though the latest rather disappointing run in the Queens Plate is of concern, so is the lack of pace in the race which might see him get going too late.

Much improved since a gelding op has been Whiskey Baron. He won four on the trot, though of lesser nature. He looked the "real deal" in those races nonetheless, as South Africa's racing experts put it, The trip is an unkown however and we don't know whether he truly is a top flight performer.

The only three year old in the race, Gold Standard, has only 52kg to shoulder, but has still a lot to find on pure ratings and is effectively out of the weights. He's lightly raced, ever improving and it's not unfeasible to believe that he can improve enough for the step up in trip to be a big player with red hot Richard Fourie in the saddle. 

Super mare Bela Bela has guts like only few have as shown in her dramatic win in the G1 Paddock Stakes. Trip is fine here, draw is good, though it's a tough ask at 57kg against the best boys in the country.

If French Navy could find back to his best he'd rate a fair chance, but his last win dates back well over a year now and he simply seemed to fell out of love with the game in my mind. 

The jury is still out on last years Derby winner It's my Turn. He followed up with big performances in the Daily News and Durban July but was convincingly beaten in lesser class by Whiskey Baron the last two starts. Albeit one could argue those were prep races and connections had the Met always on their mind as the main target. A decent draw and the ability to take a race by the neck in combination with the return to his optimum trip means he's my selection. 

It's My Turn 18/1 Sportingbet

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1.45 Cheltenham: Special Tiara @ 6/1 PP

On last years Champion Chase form there is a head between Un De Sceaux and Special Tiara, which is not allot, so the price difference between the two here looks too big. It's probably true that we don't quite whether Special Tiara has regressed in the meantime, given he's ten now and didn't really convince in two starts this season. But then UDS is not quite the world beater he promised to be in his earlier days so this race looks slightly more open than the betting suggests.

----------------

4.00 Cheltenham: Unowhatimeanharry  @ 11/10 Bet365

Really difficult to pick holes into the favourite's form. Yes Ballyoptic fell the other day and is four pounds better in the weights this time, still Unowhatimeanharry looks a worthy favourite given his strong over course and distance, something Ballyoptic does not have. 

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1.50 Lingfield: Arnarson @ evens PP

This should be a penalty kick. Arnarson has been improving through his first two starts and his recent runner-up performance at Newcastle over this 7f trip is incredibly strong form in the context of the opposition he's facing in this maiden. 

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Sorry haven't had much time to post because of covering illness at work I'm doing about 60 hours at the moment so zero free time .,,,......just a quickytoday

110 chelt

Aso   99,13

Shantou flyer    99.10

Walk in the mill 99.04

Thomas crapper  99.03

Thomas crapper could run well today but needs to step up markedly on recent form and hasnt won for ages so overlooked ...walk in the mill is rapidly improving and has big chances but this is a much stiffer course dist than he has faced to date so he loses out to the top rated two who are both battle hardened and capable at this dist ...they should run well and prices around 7/1 on both look decent value today 

Aso  5pts win 15/2 will hill

Shantou flyer 5pts win 7/1 betvic 

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2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Sorry haven't had much time to post because of covering illness at work I'm doing about 60 hours at the moment so zero free time .,,,......just a quickytoday

110 chelt

Aso   99,13

Shantou flyer    99.10

Walk in the mill 99.04

Thomas crapper  99.03

Thomas crapper could run well today but needs to step up markedly on recent form and hasnt won for ages so overlooked ...walk in the mill is rapidly improving and has big chances but this is a much stiffer course dist than he has faced to date so he loses out to the top rated two who are both battle hardened and capable at this dist ...they should run well and prices around 7/1 on both look decent value today 

Aso  5pts win 15/2 will hill

Shantou flyer 5pts win 7/1 betvic 

Sickness or Work should NEVER take any kind of priority over Punters Lounge richard.

Fix Up look sharp and fall Out before ANY court martial is considered.

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