Weekend > Jan 21st & 22nd

[StevieDay1983]

Well, what an eventful weekend the last round of games was in the Premier League. There's another massive clash this week with Manchester City taking on Tottenham this round! I never thought I'd say this but can anybody see anything other than a Tottenham win?

@andrewcalo, what do you think for Swansea? I'm going to be honest and think Paul Clement is a poor appointment. I think you will need a miracle to stay up. He's making some decent signings in Narsingh and the rumoured acquisition of Sakho but I just don't think he's a good enough manager. I'm tempted by an Asian Handicap for your game here. I can see you losing by at least two goals. Sad times for Welsh football.

@Pep004, you know a lot about Pep Guardiola's management style. What are you expecting from him this week after that defeat? Will he change anything or is he too stubborn?

@Mindfulness, things are looking grim for your boys too. I mentioned about how you might miss Zaha during the Cup of African Nations. Are Everton the worst opposition you could want right now after their destruction of Man City last weekend?

@sajtion, you were slightly off with the Manchester United vs Liverpool prediction. Have you learned anything from that game that will impact on your bets this week?

@WinningAdvice, on the flip side you got that score spot on with the 1-1 call. What are you thinking for this weekend?

@betcatalog, you also got the big game right with BTTS. What are you thinking for Man City vs Tottenham?

@Spooner, great shout with Burnley DNB. They have now won 3 of their last 4 games and that awesome home run continues. Can't see them improving their dreadful away form this week though, can you? Arsenal handicap bet perhaps?

@vasilli07, you got away with that Watford DNB this week. I wasn't confident in that I will admit but it was close. Only hearing negative things from Hornets fans at the moment. What do you think this week?

@mrclubbie, you gave us some key stats last week that helped a few of us make some sensible decisions. Got any more stats to help this week?

@KikoCy, brilliant to have you posting. What are your thoughts here?

Also interested in what @neilovan, @discipline, @jamiedavies02, @immortal--, @Kenton Schweppes, @Carovie, @Simeon Borisof, and @Bobby Vegas have to say on this weekend's action!

[andrewcalo]

Lol Clement has inherited a shit Defence and a team whose confidence is brittle.

But the buzz behind the scenes is that he's astute, savvy and is looking to bring a clinical edge to the way we play - in other words he's picking our battles so we can survive. I'm going to give him at least another half dozen games before I start judging him. He has already brought two very good players into the squad.

Fuck me boys, this week seems a slam dunk on at least half the games. Low value on Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal, obviously, though between the three you get 1.7 and I cannot see any chance of them losing those games.

Can't see Tottenham having any problem beating Man City either, or Everton doing the business at Selhurst Park.

 

 

Edited January 16, 2017 by andrewcalo

[StevieDay1983]

25 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

Lol Clement has inherited a shit Defence and a team whose confidence is brittle.

But the buzz behind the scenes is that he's astute, savvy and is looking to bring a clinical edge to the way we play - in other words he's picking our battles so we can survive. I'm going to give him at least another half dozen games before I start judging him. He has already brought two very good players into the squad.

Fuck me boys, this week seems a slam dunk on at least half the games. Low value on Chelsea, Liverpool and Chelsea, obviously, though between the three you get 1.7 and I cannot see any chance of them losing those games.

Can't see Tottenham having any problem beating Man City either, or Everton doing the business at Selhurst Park.

 

 

Interesting to hear. I wonder if he's going to have the same problem Solskjaer had for us. Solskjaer had some nice ideas in theory but he was trying to use an approach that has been successful with a dominant Manchester United youth side and a prolific Molde side for a struggling Cardiff side. The philosophy just didn't translate at all. I hope, for your sake, that Clement realises he can't use the same approaches that he's witnessed at PSG, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich under Carlo Ancelotti. I think Swansea just need to be dogged and determined. Sunderland have proved over the years that it is a key ingredient in staying up. Get the job done this season then look to evolve the team into a more polished unit over pre-season.

[Pep004]

He has nothing to change. He perfectly knows that they played good enough in first half, and he will try to improve finishing. They needs to improve finishing, because thats funny what are they missing (even if in my opinion it was clear penalty on Sterling at 0-0). I don't know why people are expecting that he will start changing something. If he will win, he will try to do it in his way. If he will lose, then he will admit that he will get proof that he is not good enough. 

He is probably one of the most stubborn managers in the world, so I think that if they will want to see different City, then they will need to sack him.

[andrewcalo]

They got battered 4-0 mate lol.

[sajtion]

middlesborough is annoying in the the way they play. i'm always skipping their games. they can't score and play diabolically defensive.why not try to play a bit of football. stoke could spell trouble for man utd. i was very surprised when they managed to score 2 goals against chelsea. man utd still are vulnerable despite their unbeaten run. pep is not going to change possession based tactics because its was agreed with hierarchy of the club but it's not working for man city. tottenham will do double over them this season.

[Pep004]

1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

They got battered 4-0 mate lol.

I don't know what is your point. Really not. It's result, it's a "shame" but that's football right? Real Madrid lose against Barcelona 5-0, 6-2, 4-0.. and so what? It's past and if you want to be a champ, you're moving on. Where are they now? 

Take a look at the game one more time. Write down all the situations and think about the game. And then tell me what would you do. Probably play counter-attacks as Everton, clearing balls from defence like idiots without passing without anything, and in next 30 years, they will MAYBE take one cup and one league tittle. I don't understand why is so hard to understand that they wants to build something. Is it not easier to keep training and playing to reach the goal they have? To do it in the way how they wants to play and after season bring 3-4 players (at least) on crucial positions? He should play "English style" and after end of the season bring new players and start from 0 then? He knew that he will need much more time here than he needed in Germany (also because of much tougher opponents, but mainly because of quality of the team and also the way they were used to play). And believe me, that he will keep it in his way even if they won't be qualified for CL. The team is without midfielders! Yaya was out in start of the season, Fernandinho is mr. red card this season. Even if he played really good, it's obvious that you can not trust him. Gundogan who should be the key man in central midfield position, started playing crazily good, scoring, assisting, and now he is off for whole season. Can you see who is playing on dm position? Zabaleta. He is the man filling the gap, but even if he is a fighter, gy who people loves, he is not midfielder and he is not even player like Lahm for example. He is not playing here because of quick mind, good vision, good skills, he is there because no one else is here and playing just with Yaya as DM is too dangerous as he is far from being quick enough for this system. Also in defence Vincent is out, they're without captain on the pitch, and you need someone like Vincent is to cheer you up and to be "chief" back there. The same problem he had in Barcelona when Puyol was out and with Ronaldinho as captain. Still.. in my opinion they have bunch of average players: Navas, Fernando, Kolarov, Clichy, Sagna, Zabaleta.. you can see that they're trying and they are getting in shape. Even Bravo is here because Barcelona didn't want to let Ter Stegen. And with his poor English language.. it's hard really really tough to be a goalkeeper.

Anyway, I think that you won't get what I'm trying to say, so it's useless post.  But they are without main signing Gundogan, they're key striker didn't play on 7 matches because of suspension, they're key defensive midfielder Fernandinho is even worse (3 red cards), and in last 7 matches, 4-times they conceded from 1st shot on the match. They have at least 3 100% chances per match, they are NOT playing bad, but well.. as I said before.. he won't change anything crucially. If he will, then he will prove that he is pussy.  In my opinion he should remain with what is he doing and if he will succeed then he will, if not, then not.

In my opinion, when they will start scoring.. everything will be different. When they will be in 2-0 lead, defenders will play more relaxed, midfield will be flying over the pitch even with Pablo as DM, and strikers will start enjoying.

[andrewcalo]

I get it, but it is like saying "if this happened, if that happened..." and if my auntie had a cock and balls she would be my uncle lol

I think my spidey-sense in tingling with you because there's usually a disallowed penalty or missed sitters that are to blame. I get he has his own style, and he wants to transplant that to Man City, but at what point is he going to realise that maybe the two aren't working? Because he is always going to have to deal with red cards, should-be penalties, injuries...and he has said himself that he has come unstuck in the brutal and unpredictable Premier league. 

At what point is his style going to compromise to accommodate this?

It would be wonderful to see a new style of play that brings both together, but I have a feeling Man City fans won't be patient enough to let that happen, if it ever does.

Edited January 16, 2017 by andrewcalo

[Pep004]

Thanks to West Ham, they reached CL qualifies last year. They needs to be patient.  I get you, but just take a look how it would be, if they would score from those chances they're creating. I hope that there will be someone who will have will to put all the chances they've missed in one video. It could be really really funny.  But well.. I think that he believes in his style that much, that he won't change anything even if they won't reach CL. He will try to do everything to success with his style, but as you said. We'll see how patient Man City fans will be. 

I have feeling that even Yaya is playing because there is no one else.. at least on this position. We'll see at the end of season. Already formation with 4 defenders is enough big "punishment" for him for now, as he had other plans. You'll see in next season.

p.s. I am not saying IFs, I am saying that they are unlucky. And that when they will fix problem with finishing, they will be stronger. They are far from winners in head. You can see that in Stones, sometimes (too many times) he is lost like a puppy, but he has enormous quality for modern centre back. 

[Mindfulness]

@StevieDay1983 , Haha not really as I believe we have only lost once to Everton since being back in the EPL - our matches normally end in low scoring draws and I expect something similar on Saturday. If anything Everton's result against City will benefit us as Palace away will probably be a dank and drizzly comedown for the Everton wonder kids compared to the glamour of thrashing City - a distorted result I might add.

I like Everton very much this year, strong manager in Koeman and some of the most exciting young players in EPL right now. Problem is you should never expect consistency from young players, seen it time and time again over the seasons.

As for Palace, it wont be news to anyone that we are completely terrible at the momment although 3-0 flattered West Ham at the weekend, first goal was always crucial there. We do indeed miss Zaha, a very important player and top performer this year but our problems run a lot deeper than missing one player. Confidence is just so low right now, players have completely lost winning mentality and no signs of that recovering under Allardyce thus far.

Despite this I do not really fear Everton, infact I would prefer them to a fellow relegation battler or top 4 contender, they are in the goldilocks zone of teams to face right now imo.

I was hoping the two teams respective results would completely distort the market in Everton's favour for Saturday. So far this hasn't happened with markets pricing game accurately imo, Palace would need to be +0.50 approaching EVS for value play here. First things first mind, midweek FA Cup replay at home to Bolton, I don't expect us to field full strength team but should have some first teamers involved to buildup match fitness and confidence. Will wait to see how that pans out before returning to Palace V Everton, I suspect it will be a no bet situation given how accurate the prices have been in EPL this year.

[StevieDay1983]

5 hours ago, sajtion said:

middlesborough is annoying in the the way they play. i'm always skipping their games. they can't score and play diabolically defensive.why not try to play a bit of football. stoke could spell trouble for man utd. i was very surprised when they managed to score 2 goals against chelsea. man utd still are vulnerable despite their unbeaten run. pep is not going to change possession based tactics because its was agreed with hierarchy of the club but it's not working for man city. tottenham will do double over them this season.

My mate once told me never to include Middlesbrough in an accumulator because they are a punter's nightmare. It appears you share his feelings now. Personally, they've never let me down. Especially with win to nil outcomes! Bloody love Karanka and his meticulous organisation of the defence.

[WinningAdvice]

Been a happy camper on my 1-1 draw win but this time I'm still undecided on how I'll call the City vs Spurs clash this week.

[andrewcalo]

Bet of the weekend for me so far this week is tottenham -1. Comes in 9 to 1. Tottenham are scoring for fun and have the best defence in the league. And Man City are both toothless and can't stop conceding. 

On a slightly unrelated note, the ELO match ratings are so complicated after the change. Can someone explain them to me?

[KikoCy]

Thanks for the mention @StevieDay1983 and agreed on Boro, they have been reliable for me this season.

 

Glad my definite picks all came through last week.

 

 

Middlesbrough - West Ham

 

Aitor Karanka has instilled some impressive defensive discipline in his side with 40% of their home games ending in a clean sheet as well and 60% U2.5.

 

Based off what I have seen of Boro, they can defend well and also have problems scoring. Negredo's goals this season have been quite lucky, Traore has no final product and I see their main threat as Ramirez.

 

West Ham are in a transitioning phase and have had some difficult away fixtures in the past 6, with the exception of Swansea.

 

The previous fixture between these 2 ended in 1-1.

 

I personally will go with U2.5 @ 1.615.

 

 

 

Crystal Palace - Everton

@mindfulness , I agree with everything you said and you definitely know Palace more than I do.

Everton have had some dodgy away form recently but their battering of City at home speaks volumes of their suitability to the 3-4-2-1 formation.

I reckon if implemented, they can shut out Palace's attack. Benteke scored two goals in the FA Cup but I can't see him penetrating the Everton defence.

 

Palace lost to the Hammers (ha) last weekend and I anticipated a much closer scoreline but the game was not a complete hammering. Without Zaha, I don't see them being very effective going forward. Perhaps it's a leadership issue too?

 

Everton win @ 2.375 has value, in my opinion

 

O2.5 @ 2.05 is also a tasty price and I think this is due to their H2H games generally falling U2.5. I personally view form > H2H, any day of the week. 60% on average O2.5 for both teams. It's risky though. It comes down to Palace scoring.

 

Perhaps wait to see projected line-ups/formations; Palace played Bolton mid-week and rested a few key players but still had to come out and come back for a victory.

 

 

 

Stoke - Manchester United

 

I see United coming out for blood in this game after their abysmal performance at home (looking at you Pogba) vs Liverpool.

 

Stoke stole a point off them in the previous fixture with Joe Allen's 82nd minute equalizer and I can see the egos in the team coming together.

 

Mourinho will also have them fired up as every game now has turned into a must-win.

 

Strangely, both these sides perform better away from home.

 

United, undefeated in 12.

 

Stoke on the other hand have won their last two vs WAT and SUN but I can't see anything past a United win here and to be honest, my rationale is based mainly off United's ability instead of anything else.

 

United win @ 1.615

 

 

 

Manchester City - Spurs

 

Spurs are arguably the most in-form team in the EPL right now and it's fitting that they play City this weekend.

 

The previous fixture between these two saw Spurs absolutely dominate. I remember watching the game and not believing how well they managed to close out City. Poch is a great tactician but we shall see this weekend whether Pep will respond in kind.

 

City on the back of a 4-0 drubbing to Everton will come out with a point to prove. Nonetheless, they seem to be lacking that cohesiveness as a team and the cutting edge they used to have.

 

Spurs missing Vertonghen but I can see Aldeweireld commanding the defence well with the inclusion of Wimmer most likely. I expect a big game from Eriksen, Walker and Kane.

 

Otamendi and Stones are the definition of liability. Fernandinho, Kompany, Gundogan are a sore loss. Fernando is 50/50 as he took a knock. 

X2 @ 1.70 is a ridiculous price for me. I would back Spurs to get at least a draw.

 

Spurs win @ 3.70 is also decent -1EH @ 8.00 from my bookie is also not a bad price at all (as per @andrewcalo's suggestion)

 

Spurs win 0-2 @ 17.00 will get a small punt from me.

 

To be honest though, the bookies set the prices for a reason but I feel they have got this one wrong. Any further insight would be appreciated! I am full on the Spurs bandwagon for now.

 

 

 

Southampton – Leicester

 

I will continue to bet against Soton, despite Leicester’s abysmal form away from home.

 

This game has U2.5 written all over it as well as draw.

 

It will probably be a 0-0 or 1-1.

 

Going with the unders on this one as Mahrez, Slimani gone to AFCON and Ulloa pending a fitness test for LEI and Soton also missing Boufal due to knee injury.

 

U2.5 @ 1.65

 

X @ 3.50

 

Correct score of 0-0 @ 7.50

 

 

Chelsea – Hull

 

I can’t see past Chelsea on this one, they remain quality. I won’t bother with a write up but rather I am eyeing out only one bet and hopefully Snodgrass doesn’t ruin it!

 

Not much value in any other markets in my opinion.

 

Chelsea win to nil @ 1.70

 

 

 

WBA – Sunderland

 

Sunderland have a problem scoring goals and quite a few of them have been penalties.

 

I read somewhere that WBA have given away only 1 pen this season? I might be wrong.

 

Nonetheless, WBA at home are decent and I can’t look past them either.

 

That being said does anyone know whether Brunt, Evans or Nyom are back this weekend?

 

U2.5 @ 1.80 for me

 

Good luck fellas, I am open to anything I missed or any criticism.

I might not play all of these but these are the ones that stand out to me currently.

As mentioned earlier, the prices are a bit too correct.

Edited January 19, 2017 by KikoCy
typos!

[andrewcalo]

Liverpool -1 at 1.6 is a must.

[vasilli07]

22 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

Bet of the weekend for me so far this week is tottenham -1. Comes in 9 to 1. Tottenham are scoring for fun and have the best defence in the league. And Man City are both toothless and can't stop conceding. 

On a slightly unrelated note, the ELO match ratings are so complicated after the change. Can someone explain them to me?

They added the average of last 2 and 4 games now if I'm not wrong. Everything else is pretty much the same.

Edited January 20, 2017 by vasilli07

[StevieDay1983]

On 18/01/2017, 10:01:30, WinningAdvice said:

Been a happy camper on my 1-1 draw win but this time I'm still undecided on how I'll call the City vs Spurs clash this week.

I'm tempted by a score draw for that. It's got all the hallmarks of a match-up that will stun punters. I've seen a lot of bets for Spurs but I can see City scraping a draw. I have down-played Spurs at my own expense on more than one occasion though so there is still a part of me thinking they can win. I just think it's looking like Guardiola is short on ideas. It will be interesting to see what impact Gabriel Jesus has. Will he be an Aguero or will he be a Robinho?!

[Magic0024]

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Premier League games:

Swansea have conceded at least 3 goals in 50% of their away games this season, including 71% of their last 7.
Crystal Palace have lost 70% of their home games this season, including 86% of their last 7.

You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-12/

[StevieDay1983]

1 hour ago, Magic0024 said:

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Premier League games:

Swansea have conceded at least 3 goals in 50% of their away games this season, including 71% of their last 7.
Crystal Palace have lost 70% of their home games this season, including 86% of their last 7.

You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-12/

Looking ominous there, @andrewcalo! Haha.

[andrewcalo]

Fuck 'em lol. Good luck to them driving the bus back to Liverpool with flat tyres.

[malabgd]

West Bromwich v Sunderland

West Bromwich: Jonny Evans (17/1 d), Allan Nyom (16/0 d)(both doubtful), Saido Berahino (4/0 f)

Sunderland: Steven Pienaar (12/0 m), Victor Anichebe (10/3 f)(both doubtful), Lamine Kone (17/0 d), Didier Ndong (16/0 m), Wahbi Khazri (11/0 m)(all national selection), Javi Manquillo (10/0 d), Jordan Pickford (16/0 first goalkeeper), Jan Kirchhoff (7/0 d), Duncan Watmore (14/0 m), Lynden Gooch (9/0 m), Paddy McNair (9/0 m), Lee Cattermole (2/0 m)

 

Manchester City v Tottenham

Manchester City: Vincent Kompany (3/0 d, captain, probably out), Fernandinho (17/1 m, suspended), Ilkay Gündoğan (10/3 m)

Tottenham: Jan Vertonghen (20/0 d), Erik Lamela (9/1 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[betcatalog]

The Tottenham is at full form and scoring at will, the City is not at its best, the defense has issues and can not serve the plan of coach Guardiola, now I expect match with many goals and will suggest the over 2,5
MANCHESTER CITY vs TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.80

[mrclubbie]

Since Palace's return to top flight in 2013-14 season, they have not manage a win at Selhurst Park against Everton. They have not won at home against Everton since 1994, though of course many of the seasons both teams were in different leagues.

Strange enough, Palace is unbeaten with their visits to Goodison Park since returning to top flight.

Last EPL win for Palace was on 3/12/16 against Southampton. Subsequently it is DLLDLLL

Urgency from Big Sam as the sliding continues and especially with Hull City just 1 place below them in terms of goal difference only.

Everton has been doing good, stable. Their last 7 stats - LWLWDWW

I am surprised that Everton is only offering -0.25 hdp. Looking at their stats, I thought it should be -0.5 or even a -0.75. Not to forget the list of injuries/doubtful/not available from the Palace side...And Benteke is out as well I believe

Against all odds -- Crystal Palace 1x2

 

Edited January 21, 2017 by mrclubbie

[sajtion]

anyone on watford today? bournemouth are conceding plenty goals and watford are due another win.i'm confident they will score

[vasilli07]

Watford is struggling for goals but Bournemouth is so inconsistent. Which team is going to turn up? The one who ran riot against Arsenal or the one that lost to Sunderland?

[StevieDay1983]

1 hour ago, vasilli07 said:

Watford is struggling for goals but Bournemouth is so inconsistent. Which team is going to turn up? The one who ran riot against Arsenal or the one that lost to Sunderland?

Yes, the Bournemouth vs Watford one is the hardest one to call. I'm only hearing negative things from Watford fans at the moment. They think the manager will be gone before the end of the season. They just have no confidence in being able to score goals. Even when they do score it feels like a struggle. They have only scored 2 goals in their last 6 league games. Says it all. I would probably just back Bournemouth but it is this kind of game that usually stumps my accumulator.

[sajtion]

anyone bet on liverpool lol

they lost only to burnley, bournemouth, swansea. very strange

[mrclubbie]

Liverpool played poorly, responded too slow when they were 2 goals down

2-3 to Swansea. They deserve the win.

[andrewcalo]

I'm going out to get ver, very drunk.

A bit hard to bemoan losing all your acca's when you just beat Liverpool. And we were away! Fucking hell...Premier League football...best league in the world...

[sajtion]

i thought swansea was lucky to get third. i'm glad i didn't get involved in the match as these kinds of matches usually surprise