Speed masterclass

[richard-westwood]

12 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

210 wolv Monday

Spirit of wesza   92

Major Valentine   85 

Interesting little race this ...Spirit of wedza and major valentine clashed over cd and the time was well above the norm for this class ....Spirit of wedza still looks feasibly treated based on that and no readon why he cant go close ...looks very good value at 6/1 but in cant ignore major valentine who wasnt far behind on the clock and now reopposes with spirit on 9lb better terms so there shoukd be nothing between them this time at 15/2 he also looks fab value ...worth a play 

Spirit of w edza  4pts win 6/1 bet365

Major Valentine 4pts win 15/2 bet365 

I'll watch this race first but in the 2.40 fleckrl was smack between these two last time recording 88 in the process so if they perform well I'll be backing him at any price over the same CD!!!!!....one to watch 

[richard-westwood]

410 wolv 

Childesplay has been slated by his critics but contrary to first impressions he took a step forward last time from 78 in the previous race to 85 last time ...that puts him right in there now and jockeybis claiming 7lb to help the cause ...hot pot fav in this will be hard to peg back but bet365 have just gone 7/1 which looks a crazy price ew so I'm a definate player 

Childesplay 3pts ew 7/1 bet365

[richard-westwood]

16 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

210 wolv Monday

Spirit of wesza   92

Major Valentine   85 

Interesting little race this ...Spirit of wedza and major valentine clashed over cd and the time was well above the norm for this class ....Spirit of wedza still looks feasibly treated based on that and no readon why he cant go close ...looks very good value at 6/1 but in cant ignore major valentine who wasnt far behind on the clock and now reopposes with spirit on 9lb better terms so there shoukd be nothing between them this time at 15/2 he also looks fab value ...worth a play 

Spirit of w edza  4pts win 6/1 bet365

Major Valentine 4pts win 15/2 bet365 

Major Valentine non runner 

[richard-westwood]

Spirit of wedza 2nd ....fleckrl..2nd ....

[richard-westwood]

2.00 south tues

Cross fire   89

Red invader 85

Cross fire is difficult to assess as he achieved his rating off 8-2 and now carrys 9-7 but at least it was here over cd which is a big factor so warrants respect at 7/2 of the others red invader has shown a glimmer of a return to form so could run well at a bigger price .

Cross fire 4pts win 7/2 pp

Red invader 2pts win 8/1 pp

[richard-westwood]

645 thurs Newc

Dubai one and captain Dion have an equal 95 here ...Dubai is hot fav around 2/1 and csptain dion 6/1 ....dubai one steps up in trip whereas captain dion steps down in trip so this will be an interesting challenge  ...but captain led for most if the 6f last time so a lot of confidence in that hes found his form now and I think ew there's a lot if value in captain dion and i dont thjnk the 6/1 will last 

Captain Dion 3pts ew 6/1 pp

Edited March 8, 2017 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

2nd today unlucky but they are all on the premises just bumping into the odd  lucky donkey at the mo....

615 Newc 

African grey is hot fav in this and could be a big improver but magic journey posted a decent 68 last time and most of these are pretty poor so he looks outstanding value at 14/1 ...just looks a fab ew bet in a weak event 

Magic journey 2pts ew 14/1 bet365 

 

[richard-westwood]

2.05 wolv sat

Nimr   96

Supersta   93

Nimr posted a quick timeover7f and should have no problem staying further ...improving type there could be more to come....supersta showed glimmers of a return to peakform and now de sousa takes ride ...noteworthy

Nimr 4pts win 9/2 pp

Supersta 2pts win 7/1 bet365

 

[richard-westwood]

17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

2.05 wolv sat

Nimr   96

Supersta   93

Nimr posted a quick timeover7f and should have no problem staying further ...improving type there could be more to come....supersta showed glimmers of a return to peakform and now de sousa takes ride ...noteworthy

Nimr 4pts win 9/2 pp

Supersta 2pts win 7/1 bet365

 

Nimr wins ....15 pts profit =+107 after recent  losses 

[richard-westwood]

745 Kemp 

Swiss cross 72

Florencio  65

Under siege  65 

Nice little race this ....florencio is fav and sets the benchmark but under revised conditions under siege should probably beat him today so the 9/2 looks pretty decent tbh ....Swiss cross is an annoying horse ..has so much talent but can't quite get it together but recorded a decent time in defeat last time and Luke Morris takes the ride unusually ..priced at 20/1 that looks silly based on that last run ....I'll go for gold and go ew on swiss cross but hes not one to rely on but odds are just too good ...

Swiss cross 2pts ew 20/1 Stan james 

[richard-westwood]

10 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

745 Kemp 

Swiss cross 72

Florencio  65

Under siege  65 

Nice little race this ....florencio is fav and sets the benchmark but under revised conditions under siege should probably beat him today so the 9/2 looks pretty decent tbh ....Swiss cross is an annoying horse ..has so much talent but can't quite get it together but recorded a decent time in defeat last time and Luke Morris takes the ride unusually ..priced at 20/1 that looks silly based on that last run ....I'll go for gold and go ew on swiss cross but hes not one to rely on but odds are just too good ...

Swiss cross 2pts ew 20/1 Stan james 

Came with late flurry but 4th ....given too much to do 

[richard-westwood]

820 chelm 

Noble act 72

Himalayan queen 70 

Fredericka  70

Atalante  67

Fredericka beat Himalayan queen last time but looks exposed and that was the latter's first run so could do better now ....atalante won well last time but this is much harder and first time in hcap so unknown ...Noble acts time is over 7f ...steps back down to 6f and talented claimer takes off 5lb too so respected....prices 10/1 and 14/1 on top 2 look excellent value 

Noble act 3 pts win 10/1 lads 

Himalayan queen 3pts win 14/1 lads

[richard-westwood]

915 wolv tonight 

David's beauty  71

Tassaaboq  65

David's beauty has been posting some fast times of late and his 6th last time is better than it first appears hence his huge price tag of 11/1 ....that looks very good value in this open race ...I'll try ew 

David's beauty 4pts ew 11/1 bet365

[Jimmy2shoes]

Always like a read at your posts richard

Many Thanks 

[richard-westwood]

210 wolv 

Lizzys dream 61

Quality art  57

Lizzys dream sets the standard here with a decent run over 6f last time but quality art is starting to look very wrll treated so looks dangerous now at 4/1 @11/2 decent value

Lizzys dream3pts win 4/1 coral

Quality art 2pts win 11/2 pp

 

[richard-westwood]

5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

210 wolv 

Lizzys dream 61

Quality art  57

Lizzys dream sets the standard here with a decent run over 6f last time but quality art is starting to look very wrll treated so looks dangerous now at 4/1 @11/2 decent value

Lizzys dream3pts win 4/1 coral

Quality art 2pts win 11/2 pp

 

1st and 3rd quality art wins easily

[Shade34]

Anybody lookin forward for the Grand National as I am?

[richard-westwood]

 

I love the national...I've put my bets on already before the masses move in ,.,rated the race fully and it thrower up this 

Cause of causes  99.13

Blaklion  99,09

Just a par   99.05 

Wide open as you'd expect but cause of causes run at chelt was classy and the perfect prep race for a national also represents g Elliot who is man of the moment so all the pieces in place for another huge win ..blaklion has been a revelation and is  climbing the rankings at a phenomenal pace ..has the form on the clock to do well in a national I'm a little concerned as to whether he's got the experience needed but is on such a steepnupward curve that I can't leave out and finally just a par represents p Nicholls so the top 3 represent top trainers which I love to see .,usually means you'll get a good run for your money ...just a par bounced into form last time and now gets a low racing weight for the national so warrants respect ,,.is priced at 62.0 on betfair and that is plain silly ,,,,the other two are 15.2 and 16.2 on betfair .,.three fab value bets in the most open race of the year so that's my tag team 

Cause of causes 10pts win 16.2 betfair

Blaklion 10pts win 15,2 betfair

Just a par 10pts win 62.0 betfair

Edited March 30, 2017 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

815 chelm 

London  74

Higher court  70 

Race has cut up badly ....higher court has been running well in tougher races and should be able to take this easily on paper ...higher court looks the biggest danger but best over 6f and doesn't look ideal 7f horse ...fav for me

London 4pts win 5/4 bet365

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

815 chelm 

London  74

Higher court  70 

Race has cut up badly ....higher court has been running well in tougher races and should be able to take this easily on paper ...higher court looks the biggest danger but best over 6f and doesn't look ideal 7f horse ...fav for me

London 4pts win 5/4 bet365

London wins 11/8...holding at +103.5...just waiting for a nice price one 

Edited March 30, 2017 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

210 south 

Treaty of Rome  72

Big amigo   68 

Meshardal  65

Not a hugely great race and i  hate south well but top two here have been running really well and ratings are over CD ...nothing to suggest that meshardal can best either of them so at 3/1 and 100/30 seems logical to Dutch and squeeze the profit out 

big amigo 4pts win 3/1 betfred

Treaty if Rome 4pts win 100/30 betvic

8pts profit either wins 

[richard-westwood]

Desperately trying to find time to invest in this but doing 60 hours at work at the mo so just popping in when I can for time being until things settle 

4.00 ling 

Varvosisn stands out here ...recorded a 76 over CD one run back and 7f probably didn't suit last time looks nicely treated and return to 6f very muchnin favour ...8/1 with lads looks very decent value 

Varvosian 2pts ew 8/1 lads 

[richard-westwood]

815 Kemp

Picket line  76

Light from mars 75

Both these have been running consistently well and conditions suit so the 15/2 @and 9/1 look very good value tonight ...worth a try 

Picket line 2pts win 9/1 betvic

Light from mars  2pts win 15/2 betvic 

Edited April 12, 2017 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

310 Kemp

Go far   92

Dutch golden age 92

Fast track   89

Unusual race with lots in or out of form ....I like the look of fast track who should run a big race but as its Saturday I can't resist the value onnoffer in the top two here ...Dutch golden age has perfect conditions and claimer takes a handy 3lb so the 10/1 with sport bet looks fantastic value and go far ran a fast time last but one but got into all sorts of messes last time so really have to put a line through that and give him another roll of the dice ..,bookies have totally dismissed him but a 92 with 7lb claimer taking off on top at 36.0 on betfair !! ...well that's me in  lol

Go far 3pts win 36.0 betfair 

Dutch golden age 3pts win 10/1 sportb

[richard-westwood]

345 wolv Monday

Top offer 72

Bush beauty 72

These two Are a bit clear and priced up at 8/1 both with 365 they look good value bets 

Top offer 3pts win 8/1 bet365

Bush beauty 3pts win 8/1 bet365

[Snert]

Richard, 
I've been having a few cans while reading through your post and thought I would pitch in and make a few comments as I have been refining my speed figures for years - I hope I don't waffle too much.
My calculations look similar to yours to start with but I do a correction to the standard times depending on the class of race
I also do a going correction 
I know you don't take weight into account but I do and I look on my ratings as a handicap system based on speed.
Below is a copy of my spreadsheet to give an idea of how I work out my ratings for a meeting ( a poor photo but I hope it works)

The rows in bold are entered manually except for single going correction which is computed from expected secs/furlong and actual secs per furlong ( for some reason in the distant past I subtracted 0.1 from the answer)
For weight correction I use difference from 10 stone
Working out the going correction is more of an art than a science - 
in the example above i would use  -0.10
The bottom figure is the final rating

My ratings will always differ from any other, as 1 point = 1 length ( no correlation with official ratings at all).
If a horse has a rating of 90 and another has a rating of 93 then this puts the second horse 3 lengths ahead ( approx. 9 lbs in old money) - it's just the way I worked and I could probably correlate with official ratings but I don't see the need.
Most of my maths are based on Nick Mordin's book (Mordin on Time) and is probably similar to yours, I did the original so long ago I forget how exactly I did some steps but they seem to work.

The main problem is time - you have to really want to do this - during the winter I spend only an hour or so to work out a couple of meetings but during the summer with 5 or 6 meetings this could take 3-4 hours. The upside is that when looking through the days racing I hour is enough time to rule out a lot of races and get down to 2 or 3 to look at more closely. Fortunately I'm retired now and have more time to do this.

I agree with you that accurate standard times are essential - I gave up on Mordin's and the Racing Post's a long time ago. I'm still working on mine and adding as I can. I work on class 4 on good going as my standard but I don't think it matters what class you choose as long as they are consistant.

The tricky part is how to use the ratings - horses are not machines - is a low rating due to a horse needing a break or was it just a slow run tactical race? 
The more records the better, sometimes patterns emerge. 
Again - more of an art than a science.
Stick with it - it really does work as an alternative to the usual methods of trying to beat the bookies.