Speed masterclass

[richard-westwood]

Anyhow ...while we are discussing speed ratings ....50% is the maths as described above and the other 50% is course standards ....I cannot stress how important that is and it underpins the whole speed rating ...without a good standard time you literally have nothing ...no way to compare horses from different courses ..nothing works ...the published one's are so Inaccurate its untrue ...so if we are doing speed ratings then it makes sense to cover compiling course standards too ....I think we've covered this before but always worth a look 

I personally do it this way ....make a booklet of courses and distances ..I.e ling 5f ling 6f etc then go to the racing post results and start working your way back through each day until you come to an all weather track result....I personally prefer handicap results as I think they are truer run .....so when you see say a 5f race note down the time under 5f ling etc and likewise 6f etc i like to write the class the time was achieved in as this helps later then move on to the next meeting or day and keep jotting down times over say a three month period until you have at least 20 times for each distance and each course ......lets say you have an example 5f ling 

58.65

58.61

59.21

59.65 

59.00

60,35

58.01 

57.75

59,35 

58.55

58,50

58.86

58,87 

58.99

So you will end up with a list similar to this .....I then put the times in order as this helps a lot 

57.75

58.01

58,50 3

58.55 5

58.61

58.65

58.86

58.87

58.99

59.00

59.21

59,35

59.65

60.35

With a course standard you want a time that not many horses can achieve but not impossibly so ...you expect a handful to get near so you tend to find a small bunch then it's followed by a larger bunch of bread and butter horses that are running 0,6 -1.4 secs outside the standard ...,,so in the list above I'd discard the top two as top is too far ahead and second is too isolated ...,also I'd drop the bottom two also .....then I notice the top 4 left 58.50 58,55..58.61.58.65 are a nice little bunch of 4 then there's a gap to the next horses starting 58.86 and going through to 59,35 .....straight away I'd look at this configuration and know I'd want my course standard to be at58.50-58.55....it's achievable by a select few but not impossible so and there's a smallish gap to the bread and butter horses starting at around 58,80 .....just what you'd expect to find so anything around the 58.50 range would be a good starting course standard .....I'd be happy with that one ...,if you've wrote down class ratings next to the times you would work out the average class of race run lets say class 4 for ling and you want the standard to be achieve able by class 4/5 preferable so you can tweak the standard time so that it is ....job done ......in the example above 58.50 is class 3  58.55 is class 5 so I'd personally set it at 58.55 ....then move on 

 

Edited February 23, 2017 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

5 hours ago, Jimmy2shoes said:

Entered again for tomorrow / Today at Wolverhampton 

2:55

Yes I've chosen this race 

Byres road 115 adj 123

London 103 

Dutchnuncle 109 

In think byres road was very unlucky the other day in what looks a hot race ...gets in here off 8-8 and this looks easier .,,....just the bet we are looking for  

Byres road 2 pts win 5/1 generally 

[richard-westwood]

19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Yes I've chosen this race 

Byres road 115 adj 123

London 103 

Dutchnuncle 109 

In think byres road was very unlucky the other day in what looks a hot race ...gets in here off 8-8 and this looks easier .,,....just the bet we are looking for  

Byres road 2 pts win 5/1 generally 

Went off fav ..disappointing 4th ..-2.00

[richard-westwood]

305 Kemp 

War department   98 adj 106

Young John  98

Dutch art dealer  94

I wasntgoing to play in this race as top two are coming from south well and the fav Dutch art dealer could be improving now but at 8/1 and 17/1 they just seem too good value to ignore 

War department 1pt win 8/1 lads

Young John 1pt win 18.0 betfair

Edited January 17, 2017 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

305 ling

Monte cinq 110

Poets society  105 

Small race but very classy ...ascot day is fav and has Spencer on board ...could be anything based on easy win last time but unproven in class and on course means 15/8 is a no no ...top two are available at 7/2 and 7/1 so worth a go against this fav

Monte cjnq 1.5 lts win 8.0 betfair

Poets society 2.5pts win 4.5 betfair

Total so far 2 losses -4.0

 

[Jimmy2shoes]

Still keeping faith in you richard, please don't let the thread slip away fella

 

[richard-westwood]

I haven't forgot it just waiting for a few days off .....got next couple off so ill try and get some races in ...got a couple weeks off soon so I'll be able to get stuck in 

[richard-westwood]

450 wolv 

Summer icon  114

Absolute blast 108

Absolute blast is well fancied and the rating is over 8f .....Summer icons rating is over 7f but won easily so you make your own choice ....I'm willing to give summer icon the benefit overall ..with absolute 6/4 and summer 4/1 ,,interesting race 

Summer icon  2pts win 4/1 Will hill

Total -7.5 

 

[richard-westwood]

550 wolv 

Billyoaks 101

Massamah 101

Dark confidant 99

Athletic 99

Billyoaks and massamah have ratings over 6f but don't look 7f types tbh ...Dark confidant represents fahey and has hanagan on so warrants respect but 91 days off a big negative ...Athletic rating over CD and being asked to do nothing but repeat it and should go close so has to be the bet 

Athletic  2pts win 7/2 bet365 

 

[richard-westwood]

Here is the spreadsheet ...a couple of people have requested ...it's in open office format ..not sure if excel will open it but you can download open office for free online anyway.the columns are at the beginning of the thread...it's out there for everyone to look at improve on ..etc....one member has already changed theirs to convert kilos to lbs for foreign racing so its evolving already !!

Untitled 1.ods

Edited January 31, 2017 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

Sorry it uploaded wrong one lol ...that was test one 

This is correct one 

racesheet1.ods

[richard-westwood]

Shows you the pitfalls of using speed ratings alone they Are all running well placing etc but cant reproduce their best ratings even thoigh most of them are being well. Backed ....shame really because none of them are far away ....but ive alwAys known you cant use them on their own because other factors effect the result too ie if they are poorly hcapped they dont win simple ad that no matter wat speed rating says ...still its an interesting problem 

[Jimmy2shoes]

They will fall our way soon enough richard 

[richard-westwood]

Ill keep posting example races but its best to find a set of rules first before backing so ill play with a few things ...huge positives though ...they are running well only beaten less than a length yesterday and wrong distance for hoese really...also top rated matches up with top rated published speed ratings on many occasions so looks well tuned ....could be we are just in form lull like any system test but i think i need to hcap too so i might try that as an additional field in results     

See if that inproves things ...it should help xonsiderably in my opinion because horses need both.speed and weight to win a race ...you cant just have one its common sense really 

[richard-westwood]

For instance it may well be enough to just have a -+ last win rating so if we get this speed result 

horse 1 89   +3

horse 2 90    +2

horse 3 90 .  -2 

the figure at the end is last win rating so horse 3 is now 2lb below so warrants serious attention ....see how a tight race can change perspective under the hcap? I def think its needs both to reach its full potential .....youve got to have all the pieces to make a jigsaw picture ....same here ill try that and see what effect it has 

likewise horse 1 has a lot to do to win today and some horses are 5-7lb above last win so even with high speed ratings what chance do they have ? Can you see how they go hand in hand .....thats where speed ratings fail on their own but hopefully we can put that right here

Edited February 1, 2017 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

Let's try anew 

420 Kemp

Pearl spectre  102  +1

Anonymous John  101  -9

Lexington Times  99  no win 74 on flat making +4

Twinnpoint   99   +11   

Pearl spectre seemed to bounce back to form last time and is only +1 with adam kirby taking ride which catches eye .....likewise anonymous johnnis 9lb below last win and is coming into peak form now ..,,,,Lexington Times also improving and has chances but last win +4 and that was on turf ....,top two seem call todayb

Anonymous John  2pts win 11/2 sport bet

Pearl spectre 2 pts win 7/1 betvic

[richard-westwood]

Yes I'm much happier with that format .....just seems a more balanced approach ...,.here's another example tomorrow night  thurs chelmn7.00

Dream Farr 105 +4

Ebony and ivory  101 no win placed off71 now 70 

Your cool 96 +4

 Difficult race this lots of in form horses ....Dream Farr ran well last time winning in a decent time andnpenalised 4lb the horse beat ebony and ivory who was about an length half back and has been dropped 1lb effectively giving him 5lb pull with top rated .,,also ebony was only fading in last yards of 6f but had shown great speed to 5f so drop to 5f will suit today ....overall very very close between top two with marginal preference for ebony if ew price available would be looking to take that 11/2 + obviously ....will wait for prices later and update 

[richard-westwood]

9 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Yes I'm much happier with that format .....just seems a more balanced approach ...,.here's another example tomorrow night  thurs chelmn7.00

Dream Farr 105 +4

Ebony and ivory  101 no win placed off71 now 70 

Your cool 96 +4

 Difficult race this lots of in form horses ....Dream Farr ran well last time winning in a decent time andnpenalised 4lb the horse beat ebony and ivory who was about an length half back and has been dropped 1lb effectively giving him 5lb pull with top rated .,,also ebony was only fading in last yards of 6f but had shown great speed to 5f so drop to 5f will suit today ....overall very very close between top two with marginal preference for ebony if ew price available would be looking to take that 11/2 + obviously ....will wait for prices later and update 

Dream Farr is well backed 5/2 but ebony n ivory is 8/1 !! ...I'll take that 

Ebony n ivory 2pts ew 8/1 bet365 

[Jimmy2shoes]

I was following The Big Lad

Then fell out with him, then he wins his last two starts 

Long term LOYALTY and TIMING can go a long way in this very cruel game  

[richard-westwood]

No luck at the mo nothing is running its race ...think its just the winter lull....

335 ling 

Just a quickie ..,,blaze of glory recorded 111 last time over course and is 8lb lighter with allowance today .,,drop to 7f shouldn't be any problem .....there are some other progressive types but with such a high rating looks worth a punt even at 11/10

Blaze of glory 5pts win 11/10 lads 

[Jimmy2shoes]

15 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

No luck at the mo nothing is running its race ...think its just the winter lull....

335 ling 

Just a quickie ..,,blaze of glory recorded 111 last time over course and is 8lb lighter with allowance today .,,drop to 7f shouldn't be any problem .....there are some other progressive types but with such a high rating looks worth a punt even at 11/10

Blaze of glory 5pts win 11/10 lads 

Most of any Osborne's short Fav's are best avoided richard

He Lay's them and is one of the biggest crooks in the game

[richard-westwood]

9 hours ago, Jimmy2shoes said:

Most of any Osborne's short Fav's are best avoided richard

He Lay's them and is one of the biggest crooks in the game

Wasn't beaten far at all ....they Just aren't winning ...disappointing cos he had a strong rating ....but we are in winter and most of my friends are having the same problem winner drought so it's probably just a rough period we are going through...they are all on the scene so if i can fine tune it ....who knows what it might do ....all good things as they say ..,at the moment its the perfect placepot machine lol...but I'm after winners !!

was only beaten a neck lol

Edited February 4, 2017 by richard-westwood

[Jimmy2shoes]

9 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Wasn't beaten far at all ....they Just aren't winning ...disappointing cos he had a strong rating ....but we are in winter and most of my friends are having the same problem winner drought so it's probably just a rough period we are going through...they are all on the scene so if i can fine tune it ....who knows what it might do ....all good things as they say ..,at the moment its the perfect placepot machine lol...but I'm after winners !!

was only beaten a neck lol

probably instructed to make it look good so he's not up in-front of the BHB Again 

Nobody will ever change my view on him richard, he's a fecking CROOK

[richard-westwood]

340 Newc

Mariee   107

Eastern Dragon  98.21

Mariee ran a quick time after a layoff and could strip fitter now and improve again ...Eastern dragons rating is over CD so sets the benchmark to SIM at but on paper mariee should be able to outgun these ...

Mariee    5pts win 5/2 bet365

[richard-westwood]

5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

340 Newc

Mariee   107

Eastern Dragon  98.21

Mariee ran a quick time after a layoff and could strip fitter now and improve again ...Eastern dragons rating is over CD so sets the benchmark to SIM at but on paper mariee should be able to outgun these ...

Mariee    5pts win 5/2 bet365

2nd to a 136 day layoff horse with no all weather form ....what can you do .....? 

[richard-westwood]

650 Kemp 

Pepita  64  +8

Tibibut  91 +5

Sandy shores  92.13 -3

Short priced fav here in pepita but has shown a lot of temperement problems and speed ratings reflect that ....doesn't look well treated at all today so worth takingon .....tibibit should run a big race today and looks the one most likely  to take this fav on but Sandy shore ran a fantastic race last time although down field that was a hot race especially on the clock so adjusted figures have him top by a few pounds and at 11/1 looks fab value for a decent run today ....interesting race 

Tibibit   5 pts win 4/1 pp

Sandy shores 5pts win 11/1 lads

[richard-westwood]

750 Kemp

Blaze of glory 51 +4

Maakarim 96 -8

Tailors row  118 -12

Similar type of race to last race with blaze of glory short fav...but last race was poor on clock ..yes he is better than that but doesn't look well treated either today ....maakarim ran a decent race last time and that looks decent form coming into this but tailors row ran a cracker last time over 7f ....that looked a hot race on the clock and drops 12lb coming into this .,,yes has to stay extra furlong but very well treated onnpaper and should run well at 6/1 !!

Tailors row  5pts win 6/1 lads 

+3pt ew doubles with 650 race selections 

 

[richard-westwood]

Right .....if your gonna do something you may as well do it properly and as this seems a bit floored as its a broad rating I've gone back to the drawing board and reprogrammed the sheet as follows 

A2 race distance last race ....user input 

b2 time of winner last race ....user input 

C2 beaten dist last race  ....user input 

D2 = computer auto .......total yards covered by winner (distance ×220) 

E2 = computer auto ....yards behind winner (3*length behind winner..3yrd being length)

F2 computer auto ....yards loser covered in winners time will be same as d2 if won 

G2 computer  auto ....speed =dist covered /time 

H2 computer auto ....time behind winner =beaten dist /speed

I2   standard time for dist and course ....,,,user input 

J2  computer auto  .....time achieved  plus or minus standard winner

K2 computer auto  ....losers actual time achieved 

L2 computer auto ...with m2

m2 computer auto ...adjusts time to 5f...1100×time down/distance last race 

N2 computer auto ...22 x m2 ...adjusts m2 to lbs over 5f (22lbs equally 1sec at 5f)

O2 ...weight carried last race +-9st ....user input so 9-7 would input +7 ..8-11 input -3 etc)

P2 ....computer auto ....total weight  to adjust ..n2 plus o2 

Q2 computer auto ....final speed 100 -p2

As you can see this is a much more accurate version of how a horse runs ....it works out individual speed horse achieved then the exact time the losing horse achieved and converts it to different distances automatically and deduct from the base rating of 100 carrying 9stone (100).

User inputs a2 b2 c2 ,,,i2...o2....rest calcs auto 

Far more accurate way of achieving speed rating than previous model 

 

[richard-westwood]

Completed sheet .......open office format ...now we can really test the speed ratings and I'm confident they will be far more accurate....

newspeed.ods

Edited February 8, 2017 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

Also for interest of accuracy distances run Need to be exact .I.e wolv 8f is 8f141yrds...so that will need to be entered in exact decimal form which equates to 8.64 furlong near as dammit etc for accurate calculations ...that's stage 1 complete...now we need to use it to get a win big enough to pay for a summer break holiday and the class will be completed ....bring it on 

One thing ....I use 19lbs at 5f for 1sec ...racing post use 22lbs?...any thoughts ?...it's set at 22lb but could be changed 

 

Edited February 8, 2017 by richard-westwood