Australian Open 2017

[LePapo]

Hi, I've found really interesting this forum so I created an account. I liked a lot the outright preview from Czech. Concerning this night matches, I have bet on Nishikori to beat RF at 2.35. The swiss has just played 3 competitive matches in the last 6 months; in the Aus Open he's beaten the number 300, the number 200 and Tomas Berdych who is just no match for RF. I think the victory against Berdych is overrated, I expected the czech to dissapear once again against RF and that was exactly what happened; Now Fed face Nishikori, one of the best hard courters on tour, and he's priced at around 1.55 which I consider very low. He has lost just one set but he's faced really mediocre opponents. Federer also leads H2H but last match was more than a year ago and all the matches have been in bo3 format. So I just can't believe he's given more than 60% of implied odds to beat a solid top 5 like Nishikori. The japanese has beaten Djokovic and Murray in their prime in Grand Slams, so in my opinion market should respect him more. Also this is a best of five match so one might say that the longer it gets the worst it'll be for RF. And Nishikori can easily hit the ball and keep the rallies. I think Fed only way to win this is in straight and short sets. To me this match is 50/50 so value is on the japanese. 

Then the other encounters, I haven't seen Murray matches but he's number 1 and normally he should win his match against Zverev with relatively ease. Odds are minimal on Murray so no bet for me here. On the second quarter, Stan will play Seppi, the swiss leads the H2H 10-5 (8-0 on hard court!!!) so he should win this, however Stan is a bit unpredictable sometimes and the odds on him offer almost no value. I just hope Seppi stuns Wawrinka for the sake of my outright on Tsonga to reach the last four. And finally , Tsonga faces revelation Dan Evans in a match which I consider will be the end of Evans winning streak. The british has massively overperfomed on BP converting more than half of them this year when he normally wins less than 40% of return points excluding BP..... Also he's been conceding BP but he's saved 25/31 so far in the tournament. Concern is that Tsonga has terrible BP conversion stats on hard in the last year with around just 30% which is way low the mean of around 40% and his problem to end matches as he did against Sock when he choked a 4-nil lead in the third set TB and then almost getting broken when serving for the match in the fourth. But still I think Tsonga will win this but Evans can as well win a set and put some pressure on the french. So I stay out of this match and just hope Tsonga qualifies to the quarters and then to the semis xD

Shoutout to you guys that share your thoughts about betting. Hope we can beat the bookies.

[CzechPunter]

to the forum, LePapo, and good luck with your bets!

[bet man]

[CzechPunter]

Nishikori's loss brought me to +48.7pts for the thread, big day tomorrow though with plenty at stake. Taking just one, hoping for Goffin/Dimitrov/RBA/Nadal/Strycova. Strycova probably unrealistic, RBA with a chance, the rest are favourites. I think that Monfils actually has a decent chance against Nadal, but I'm essentially on Nadal at 2.25, so I'll stay put.

Federer incredible today, just awesome. This could be ridiculous, actually, with him trying so hard to win a GS for so long and then wins it right after a long break. I want someone new to win it though, come on Dimitrov! Anything but a Fedal final .

[Guest]

Unbelievable how fresh Federer was at the end of 5 set match!!! It is like he was in SPA and not playing quality tennis match... He is my favourite for the AO right now, he knows how to play against player like M. Zverev, he has Wawrinka in his pocket... If he can avoid Nadal in final, he will win this one, even though I was thinking about Dimitrov yesterday when he was 15 or 17, but now dripped to 9 after Murray went out so I see no value in that anymore.

[CzechPunter]

2 hours ago, ejmali333 said:

Unbelievable how fresh Federer was at the end of 5 set match!!! It is like he was in SPA and not playing quality tennis match... He is my favourite for the AO right now, he knows how to play against player like M. Zverev, he has Wawrinka in his pocket... If he can avoid Nadal in final, he will win this one, even though I was thinking about Dimitrov yesterday when he was 15 or 17, but now dripped to 9 after Murray went out so I see no value in that anymore.

Can't but agree, Dimitrov at 9.00 is no value whatsoever given his experience and route to the finals.

[four-leaf]

Jennifer Brady to beat Mirjana Lucic-Baroni at 2.50 with bet365

I think we have a new Shelby Rogers kind of player here. Jennifer has so far played good enough tennis to take out the tricky Heater Watson in a tight decider 10-8 and after that upsetting Elena Vesnina in straight sets and now facing the experienced croatian veteran Mirjana Lucic-Baroni who's played 2 three set matches so far in the tournament. Mirjana is the smallest favourite in the 4 matches on monday so I think if I have to pick an underdog for monday Jennifer is the one who might be worth a try.

[LePapo]

Bet on Nishikori is a loss. I think the bet was correctly placed though. At 4-0 in the first set it seemed it would be an easy winner but RF played really good tennis especially with his serve which avoid him playing long service games. Then in the fifth had some issues with his hip and an early break was enough for Fed. Now he's favourite to win the title (first one since wimbledon 15 final I think) 

Incredibly, Murray lost against Zverev and I think this was his best option to win the aus open. Zverev played outstanding tennis but I just think if he plays just serve and volley , he'll be easily beaten by RF. Then Stan won it in straight sets against Seppi who failed to serve out the third set. But Stan doesn't look solid to me yet. And Tsonga beat Evans with relatively ease.

Regarding today's matches, there is one match where I find value. Monfils Nadal. I think value is on the french at 3.2 (although odd has dropped) He's got marginally better hold+break stats on hard and he's been solid in this surface. Nadal played a 5 setter last round and let's see how he's physically for this match. RN has played 6 five setters on hard since 2012 with his win against Zverev being just his second in that period. Rafa leads H2H 6-2 on hard, last match on hard was in 2014. Monfils 2016 was the best season of his career and he's been playing well so far in australia. I think this can be a long match with the line of 36-37 games maybe being a tad short. Concern is that monfils can be a clown even in a GS match like he was last year against Djokovic so I'd stay out of this match as I've an ouright on Monfils to reach the last four. RBA-Raonic, it seems raonic has some issues. he was outplayed by simon during a couple of sets but still the canadian managed to win it , RBA, in my opinion, didn't played a good match last round. Ferrer was terrible on Break points. Now at odds of over 4 i think there's a bit of value in the spanish but his performance doesn't convince so i stay out this match. Then odds on goffin-thiem seem accurate to me, i expect the belgian to qualify and the last match between istomin and dimitrov, i imagine istomin is tired after two five setters and i can't see him winnning this . Dimitrov is just a superior player and has been playing outstanding this year and at odds of 1.1 there's no value to me. Hope he wins because it seems my outright on him has shortened from 7.5 to 1.7-1.8 and has every chance to be a winner.

GL to everyone 

Edited January 22, 2017 by LePapo

[owenclass]

Dominic Thiem vs David Goffin

Over 40.5 games 10/11 paddy power

I think looks like it is going to be five sets as i dont think these two players will win easily. Also there is not much between them so we are going to see quite a few breaks of serve. Goffin is probably the favourite to win. But the improvement from his opponent has been big so it wont be easy for Goffin. So both players to win a set is a great bet

Gael Monfils vs Rafael Nadal

Over 37.5 games 4/5 paddy power

This match will be four sets. But it could be another five set match as Nadal is not as good as he was while his opponent is better player than he was a few years ago. And we all know that he loves these Grand slam matches against the top players. The match just depends on whether Nadal turns up and if he does then should win. But this match is going to so intriguing as we dont what his opponent will do

Ekaterina Makarova vs Johanna Konta

Over 20.5 games 10/11 paddy power

This is probably the biggest match in the womens draw tonight and i think we are for a fantastic match as Konta is playing great and her opponent is surprisingly playing great herself as she has had some impressive wins and i think she will carry her good form into this match which wont be good for Konta as she was expecting an easier match. So expect a tough first set for Konta

 

Edited January 22, 2017 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Thiem in his beast mode today, best he's been in ages.

[Simeon Borisof]

21 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Thiem in his beast mode today, best he's been in ages.

It's no surprise actually.I have a bet on Goffin

[CzechPunter]

41 minutes ago, Simeon Borisof said:

It's no surprise actually.I have a bet on Goffin

And there I was, wondering what I'm doing wrong this season! Now I know it's you behind everything!

[CzechPunter]

Luckily, the beast mode went off after the second set. Adding this one for today.

[xxx1984xxx]

Hello everybody. My english is unfortunately not very good, so I let my text of google translate once. So I apologize for the translation.

For tomorrow I have my "bet of the tournament".

This is the game Makarova / Vesnina vs.. Hla./Peng.

As the bookmakers come to these rates is a mystery to me. Hl./Peng have had a single defeat since 2014. This was the last time against the strong double mirza / stry. From the last 16 games they have won 15. At this tournament they have 6: 0 sets.

Of course, are Mak / Ves. Also a strong double. But for me, Hla / Peng are the favorites. Times / Ves had already given two sets.

 

Here there is an average rate of 3. this is the madness! I go with full risk.

[tomagio]

1 hour ago, xxx1984xxx said:

Hello everybody. My english is unfortunately not very good, so I let my text of google translate once. So I apologize for the translation.

For tomorrow I have my "bet of the tournament".

This is the game Makarova / Vesnina vs.. Hla./Peng.

As the bookmakers come to these rates is a mystery to me. Hl./Peng have had a single defeat since 2014. This was the last time against the strong double mirza / stry. From the last 16 games they have won 15. At this tournament they have 6: 0 sets.

Of course, are Mak / Ves. Also a strong double. But for me, Hla / Peng are the favorites. Times / Ves had already given two sets.

 

Here there is an average rate of 3. this is the madness! I go with full risk.

Before anyone bet on this, here are few things that you didn't mentioned...

- They've lost a match two weeks ago in sydney

- They've played 12 matches in 2015-2017 (4 in 16, 8 in 17)

- Makarova/Vesnina are best on hard court, also won every big tournament (US Open, Olympics, WTA Finals)

no value for me, GL anyway

[xxx1984xxx]

1 hour ago, tomagio said:

 

- They've lost a match two weeks ago in sydney

I have also written this

 

1 hour ago, tomagio said:

- They've played 12 matches in 2015-2017 (4 in 16, 8 in 17)

 But they won 11 of the 12 games. And that against good teams

For me 50/50. The quotas fall and fall.

We are surprised. It's just a suggestion of mine. We will see :-)

 

[CzechPunter]

[tomagio]

3 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Hi mate, 

i was wondering, you've posted some b365 bets, you living abroad or you have some way to bet there? Because my account is still blocked (because of new Czech Republic law in 2017) 

[LePapo]

Anything concerning today's matches? Think Fed will beat Zverev and Tsonga has every chance against Stan. The french has been playing really well this week and Stan has been far from solid, but it's known that Stan starts performing in the second week...

And for those who follow WTA you see any value on Konta at around 2.60?

[CzechPunter]

Konta is definitely on my watch, don't know yet though.

[owenclass]

Name the finalists and Final Forecast

Mens

Stanislas Wawrinka vs Rafael Nadal 9/2 paddy power

Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Rafael Nadal 3-1 9/1 sky bet

 

Womens 

Gabine Muguruza vs Karolina Pliskova 9/2 paddy power

Karolina Pliskova to beat Garbina Muguruza 2-1 4/1 sky bet

I just think that one of these bets has a great chance of happening as Wawrinka will probably too good for Federer if they meet in the semi finals. And Nadal looks like he is getting to his best. The womens will probably have these two as Muguruza is playing well. And Pliskova has a great chance to beat Serena in the semi finals. But only if they meet

Edited January 24, 2017 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Right now, I think that I'm just going to skip tomorrow and hope for the best in Dimitrov-Goffin. Konta definitely has a chance against Williams, but the price is too short maybe, Konta is yet to prove herself mentally against the big opposition.

[xxx1984xxx]

Strong win by Hla./Peng 

[xxx1984xxx]

After the great profit of Hla / Peng, I start a try for another Match.  For the mixed double. Bryan / Mattek is, of course, a great double. no question. BUT no Match in 2016. In round 1 they had to make a set against a weak double. Now they play against Gucc / Swit. Gucc is an good double player. And in the first round with a strong game. Only one BP against Far/Gro. Strong! No question Bryan/Matt is the better Double. But a quote 4? Dont forgot its Mixed! For me there is value in it. I play it small. Think here ist something possible 

[liquidglass]

Konta Vs Williams

On paper this looks a very nice treat waiting to be served up - the most awaited confrontation of the WTA calendar in a very long time. I have decided to write about this because I vehemently feel that there are a few points worthy of note as we get ready to decide to back either player. Firstly, I must praise Konta's fitness regime that has put her in such tremendous shape - a truly remakable depiction of physical conditioning. The fact that she has carried this form all the way from China, through Sidney and into Melbourne is truly heroic, and transforms into excellence when you consider the fact that she has forgotten when she last dropped a set. I will not say much about Serena because you all know about most of the things that are worthy of mentioning about her. Rather I will focus on her chances in this match up. 

Firstly, I do not care who you are, or whatever cloud of form is hovering over your head. No one has the right to be 6/4 against Serena for any reason especially in such a big tournament situation. Konta no matter what should be 3/1 and above at the very least. As it is there is no value in Konta at 6/4 and no one in their right mind should be backing her at such crippled odds. Serena herself has not played well all tournament. Her serve percentage against Strycova was dismally awful putting in less the 43% of first serves, still she found a way to win. It would have been better for Konta if this was a first or second round match where she could just slip under the radar unnoticed and knock serena out. But will all the pre-hype build up, I would be very surprised if this lives up to expectations. Serena has been in these kind of situations many a time and knows how to come out of it. Even then, I cannot figure out how Konta is supposed to go about beating Serena with the brand of tennis that she suscribes to. Big serve and power hitting against the all time power house of women's tennis. I guess it is the same way I have been fooled into thinking that Arsenal can ever match Barca with football on the ground.

The best antidote to the Serena game is what has already been applied in the form of the Strycova game, and that perhaps did not work too well because Strycova was not game enough to stick to the task.(Take the pace off the Serena serve with a blocked return and outmaneuver her with ball in play. Strycova always seemed to have the upper hand with the rallies in progress but never was quite game enough to provide the necessary consistency and finishing touches. How does one really expect Konta to outplay Serena in the power game? Crazy. Especially when Serena has be given advanced warning of the danger ahead. I see the Konta serve coming back with interest most times and the Serena serve generating a one/two punch scenario most times. At the current odds, the smart money can only be on to back Serena at 8/15. It is even still too risky to consider Konta winning a set here. Why? Because whatever can make her win a set, can make her win the match and I think Serena in 2. One tight set, one easy set. Good luck all!!!!!

[owenclass]

Rafael Nadal vs Milos Raonic

Over 42.5 games 10/11 paddy power

This match looks look it has five sets written all over it. And Nadal looks like his near his best which should produce a great match

Johanna Konta vs Serena Williams

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

This will be Serenas toughest match so far as her opponent is playing great and could her some serious problems as she has improved so much

 

Edited January 25, 2017 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Found one I fancy in the end.

Back Rafael Nadal (+23.5 Aces) to beat Milos Raonic at 1.83 with Skybet

Nobody's disputing the fact that Raonic will have more aces than Nadal, but I think that this handicap has a very good chance nonetheless, as there are plenty of possible scenarios that support it. If Raonic is feeling a bit ill, for example, his serving will drop by a bit. That's the first scenario. The other is that Nadal will be serving well himself and get a few aces on the board, which is fairly probably imo given that his serve has been working well so far in this season. As for the stats - Raonic hasn't covered this handicap in the AO yet, which is understandable with all the shorter matches, but it's important that he almost didn't cover it against RBA (9-33). Nadal has a better serve than RBA and perhaps the same quality return. The one thing that speaks against this bet is that Raonic went 23-4 in aces against Nadal in Brisbane, but he was serving out of his skin in the decider and Nadal seemed to check out mentally, which isn't likely to happen here.

[CzechPunter]

Btw, this is epic.

 

[CzechPunter]

Cheers @losingpunter, but it'd be better to post before the matches, not during or after them .

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Coco Vandeweghe Most Double Faults (vs. Venus Williams) at 2.10 with Skybet

Another situational bet that I like. Venus' stats are 7-1-2-7-1, while Coco's are 7-8-7-2-3, so the averages work in favour of this bet. That's not all, however, as I also think that the fact that this is a semi could have an effect here. While Venus has been here before, it's a completely new situation for Coco and who knows how she's going to deal with it. Kerber and Muguruza played poorly against her, so she never got nervous, hence the small double of DFs, but she does produce them when pushed, as she was in the first three matches. She'll get pushed here, that's almost a certainty, so I'm happy to take her to have more double faults than Venus at 2.10.