Australian Open 2017

[liquidglass]

11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

The default mindset about big tournaments should be that once you have made it to the next stage, you reset your mind and preparations for that new level relying totally on the form that has brought you to that level. So I will speedily dismiss your point about Brady being one of the worse players to make it to round 2 and focus on Brady's chances. I really think Brady has a chance, and a decent one. She is the player in form. She is also clutch and gritty which makes Watson a likable opponent. Most importantly is that the pricing is not quite right to indicate a Watson victory, but tempting enough to make anyone want to back Watson. At 6/4 Brady looks the one to be on. Just like  my precise comments about Barthel last night. I see Brady winning ugly. Watson had done nothing worthy of consideration lately, whereas Brady has had good match practice under her belt and is currently in a good place. Good Luck!!!!

[owenclass]

I have got to tell myself not to bet on Edmund when he is carrying an injury

Edited January 19, 2017 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Great fighting spirit from Brady indeed, winning from 2-6 4-5* with worse stats throughout practically the entire match (in terms of BBs, it was 4/11 against 5/21), but I'd really appreciate fewer of these last-minute comebacks against my picks. Much worse than seeing them lose 1-6 2-6. Insane month in terms of those and I'm due some luck, but fair play to Brady for hanging in there, saving a number of difficult situations and five match points under pressure.

As for what I've seen today, Pliskova was just excellent, not losing her focus in the second set as would've happened last year. If someone takes out Radwanska, I'd really fancy her chances, she's certainly looked far better than Kerber and Williams so far. Ferrer is probably just done, might win a small clay court title, but that's it I'm afraid. Some put his decline to the racquet change, but I worry that it's a deeper problem - he's now lacking that one extra step that allowed him to be everywhere in time and even worse players are now able to outplay him in rallies. I really like him, so I hope that I'm wrong here, but the developments are worrying. That said, Escobedo should have a future, still only 20.

RBA broken quite a few times against Nishioka, but that was expected really, nothing worrying in that. Chung was red-lining a lot against Dimitrov, but the Bulgarian adjusted well at the start of the second set, big thumbs up for that really, shows a substantial change from last year. Also, when Chung broke him in the fourth, he re-focused and got the re-break straight away, fabulous. Djokovic will be the toughest possible test, but it's not like the Serb is invincible at the moment, this isn't 2011. He's losing against Istomin as I'm writing this, that's not going to happen I suppose, but yeah, not invincible.

I was also quite surprised to see Tomic grind out the match against Estrella yesterday, I thought he would give away one set poorly in frustration, but no, nothing like Kyrgios. That's actually what's putting me off backing Evans tomorrow, at first the evens+ looks good, but Tomic just isn't losing to weaker players in the AO (since 2010, it's been Cilic-Nadal-Federer-Federer-Berdych-Murray).

[liquidglass]

5 hours ago, liquidglass said:

The default mindset about big tournaments should be that once you have made it to the next stage, you reset your mind and preparations for that new level relying totally on the form that has brought you to that level. So I will speedily dismiss your point about Brady being one of the worse players to make it to round 2 and focus on Brady's chances. I really think Brady has a chance, and a decent one. She is the player in form. She is also clutch and gritty which makes Watson a likable opponent. Most importantly is that the pricing is not quite right to indicate a Watson victory, but tempting enough to make anyone want to back Watson. At 6/4 Brady looks the one to be on. Just like  my precise comments about Barthel last night. I see Brady winning ugly. Watson had done nothing worthy of consideration lately, whereas Brady has had good match practice under her belt and is currently in a good place. Good Luck!!!!

Hmm! I never really expected Brady to give me an exemplary and refined definition of "winning ugly". Good match though

[CzechPunter]

Thanks @Simeon Borisof for bringing the Karlovic/Whittington match to my attention!

[Simeon Borisof]

1 minute ago, CzechPunter said:

Thanks @Simeon Borisof for bringing the Karlovic/Whittington match to my attention!

Great shout,mate!

[CzechPunter]

Taking these two from Koblenz today, will see about AO later.

 

[CzechPunter]

Well, that's a twist.

[Painteur]

two in a row?

[DrO]

15 hours ago, DrO said:

From Thursday i fancy these two betts.

 Bautista-Agut R. - Nishioka Y.  Bautista -2.5 (Set Handicap)  1.70

I'm not a fan of these big lines and we all saw what happened with Kyrgios this morning but i like this one. RBA is true competitor,he's in excellent form and he's not going to underestimate his opponent. He only dropped one set in season so far and have demolished Pella in R1 63 61 61.
Nishioka is maybe a talented guy - i'll give you that,but i fell that he's unproved yet in Grand Slams. Last season - for example - he's lost all three GS matches he played without taking a single set from Cuevas (AO), Stakhovsky (W) and Anderson (USO).
RBA in straigt sets for me.

Cibulkova D. - Hsieh Su-Wei   Cibulkova -5.5 (Game Handicap)  1.75

Pretty big line,but i guess that Dominika will cover it more often than not. She finished last season in big style by winning the WTA Masters Cup. It seems like that some private issues she had didn't affect her game and she won her R1 match against Alertova 75 62. I don't know how much is she capable against stronger opponents,but will probably have too much power for Hsieh.
Hsieh is more like a veteran player these days and her glory days are over. She's 91.in rankings and holds her top 100 status mainly playing smaller events. I took a look on her last season performances and noticed that she easily lost every match she played against better ranked players. Her  game is too defensive and i can't see how Su will cope with Dominika's aggressive game.
 

[CzechPunter]

What a day, yeah.

[Simeon Borisof]

I think Tsonga and Dimitrov are worth opposing in the next two days.Sock was excellent yesterday while Tsonga is nothing to be remembered about these days.On the other hand Grigor was truly average and could have easily lost today,getting broken at not one or two occasions.He will have against him Gasquet who had no difficulties whatsoever against a player who i rate to be more talanted and gifted than Chung.Both are at odds against so i am happy to be on them

[CzechPunter]

I actually really liked Dimitrov's performance against Chung and I think that he's definitely the fav going into that match, but who knows. As for tomorrow, hmmm....

[CzechPunter]

Back Tomas Berdych (-1.5 sets) to beat Roger Federer at 3.45 with Unibet

While I'm not convinced about Berdych in the long term, I think that he actually has an excellent chance here against Federer, who's been sub-par since his comeback and who's hardly match-fit going into this. Rubin was pushing him in rallies quite a bit and Federer also dipped in focus in the third set, but that's not the most important thing here - the most important thing is that I haven't seen a really good performance from him so far, not in Melbourne and not in the Hopman Cup either. Berdych actually has a reasonable record against the Swiss legend and he always does well in the AO, so he could realistically get his revenge for last year's loss here. I suppose that the ML at 2.40 or so is playable as well, but I prefer the set handicap, as I don't believe that this is likely to go to five - if Federer is average, Berdych should get the job done in three or four, if Berdych is poor, Federer should win in three or four. In any case, I'm convinced that Berdych is the shrewd bet here, I don't see a single reason for Federer being such a favourite here. He's a legend, alright, but what does that matter?

[CzechPunter]

And these three.

 

[Guest]

That is just amazing how many good matches is on schedule for next two days... I am not sure if I have enough funds on my account to bet them all!

IDK where to start, with some "fix" matches, possible upsets, combos, singles... Lets go one after another, I took all bets on bet365, but you can easily find some higher odds on other bookies. I could be long and boring with the explanations about matches but there is no point in that, I will be quick, because there are to many matches. Please help me chose few matches to make a combo or two:

TOP PICKS:
Jack Sock to beat Jo Wilfried Tsonga @2,37

Sock is the player in form, and Jo is simply not...

Roberto Bautista Agut to beat David Ferrer @1,53

Two similar players with more fire power in Bautista hands and legs, Ferrer is not getting any younger...

Angelique Kerber to beat KRISTYNA Pliskova @1,22

Kerber to win the tournament so she should go past this easily... She will improve from match to match, that is a fact

Daria Gavrilova to beat Timea Basycsxndsfdsfdsdfsafsaski @1,66

I bet on her yesterday and I will bet on her today and tomorrow and as long as she plays in AO. Crowd adores her and she feeds from them so much. Timea on the other hand lost a bit of form in the second part of the last season.

Elina Svitolina to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @1,50

Svitolina is way better than Pavly, I see her going far into tournament...

Eugenie Bouchard to beat Coco Vandeweghe @1,57

I like Bouchard in every way and I simply like to back her, even though the courts are fast this year and that probably suits Coco more. Bouchard showed decent form lately...

Maria Sakkari to beat Mirjana Lucic-Baroni @2,37

Sakkari good record on hard courts, beaten Cornet in last round, which should be better than Lucic. I also have in mind that Greek players have good support in AO, isn't that true? On the other hand, I don't know much about Lucic, I rarely watch her, to be honest IDK when I watched her last time, maybe 2016 grass court part of the season...

SOME OTHER PICKS:

Daniel Evans to beat Bernard Tomic @2,1

Looking at this match from one perspective is "Let's go against Australian bad boy #1 (or #2, I guess Kyrgios took over #1 spot to be honest)", but on the other hand "He was always good in AO." And then Evans is in form obviously, but might be tired after playing some matches against quality opponents in last few weeks... But lately I don't buy "home court advantage" and "tired" anymore, so I guess it should an easy win for Evans.

Alexander Zverev to beat Rafael Nadal @3,25

I like Zverev and I was looking forward to this match when I saw the draw, but Rafa showed decent tennis and he is still more experienced guy for big tournaments.

Tomas Berdych to beat Roger Federer @2,37

This would be in top picks, but my heart does not allow me... RF fan here!

So what do you say about that?

I wanted to place combo bet on TOP PICKS, together odds 41 with 25% added on winnings so the actual odds are 50!  Worth trying I would say...

[CzechPunter]

That's a lot of picks, but all of them make some sense to me, so good luck . Should be a lot of rain in Melbourne today, but they've got three roofs, so it doesn't really matter.

[liquidglass]

Angelique Kerber Vs Kristina Pliskova

I have had my eye on Kristina Pliskova for some time now and I must say that I am quite surprised with the positive colossal strides that she is making. Having always desired the worldly acknowledgement and attention that her Sister Karolina has been receiving over the years, she has very visibly worked hard to get here and still remains under the radar. People most times are only able to rate a player when there is clear or tangible evidence of progress. But this is exactly what this indulgence is all about; the ability to sniff out value amidst the rubble of the unknown. People will argue that she has no experience at this level bla bla bla. It is for the same reasons that the FA cup is always very interesting trying to predict the unexpected. Kristina has already started the year quite well playing at the very deep end of the sea without managing to drown, smashing up a quality field at Shenzhen before losing to Konta in three sets. Well for me, that is as serious an assessment one can make of themselves with Konta currently being the most improved player of the WTA.

This will be the first meeting between Kerba and Pliskova and it no doubt promises to be a treat. At first when I saw the opening prices, I thought the bookies were having a laugh considering Kerba's shaky form. They opened at Kerba 1/6 and Pliskova 4/1. Then I kept staring them in the eye till they blinked and went Kerber 1/5 Pliskova 7/2. It was then that I begun this write up. The fact that they are both lefties really evens out the match and gives Kerber a few things to think about. One thing is certain Kristina will not do another Blinkova. She is here to play. With so many options available, I will take the best one. Knowing Pliskova will hold serve most of the time, I will take the easy route total Pliskova games over 8.5 easy peazy!!!!!!

[owenclass]

Bernard Tomic vs Dan Evans

Over 38.5 games 4/5 paddy power

There is nothing between these two players and i think it will be a long match as i cant see anyone winning easily. But Tomic will be up for this match as he is playing in front of his own fans so he might just edge this match

Edited January 20, 2017 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

That will be it for tomorrow, don't see much else and don't want to end up overexposed either, plenty of pre-tournament bets will be in action anyway, so I'll be cheering for Thiem/Nadal/Konta/RBA/Strycova/Dimitrov/Kohlschreiber. Standing at a nice clean plus for the thread so far despite today's 0-4, which feels good after the terrible first two weeks, but it would be sweet to nail one of the quarter bets . Dimitrov the favourite in his quarter now (I think he'll beat Gasquet, but don't know about Thiem), RBA and Strycova still long-shots (I fancy both tomorrow though).

[KillerKat]

Massive hello to all the punters here, I've been an avid reader for a while now. I'm now going to join in the fun and give my two cents. I'm quite surprised to see Roger as the favourite against Nishikori. What are your thoughts on that? Surely, Roger is not match ready yet in a best of 5

[CzechPunter]

to the forum!

Yep, it's a bit strange, but the thing is that Federer was marvellous today. And I mean it - almost like in his best days, aggressive tennis, not giving Berdych a second to regroup, even his returning was top-notch. So the question is - will Nishikori be able to push him back a bit? He should, he's better than Berdych in nearly every single department, but he has a few mental demons on his own and I don't think that he'll feel too comfortable if Federer stays this aggressive. I'm certainly going to give it another think tonight, but, for now, I think the odds might actually be right, although I'd lean on Nishikori if pushed. The best scenario is to wait for the live betting and see the first few games to see the dynamic while hoping that there won't be an early break.

[liquidglass]

Bautista Vs Ferrer

This one truly has been drawn up as a local derby for all intents and purposes and we should expect nothing short of a spectacle. Initially when the odds first came out with Bautista at 4/7 and Ferrer at 11/8, it was hard for me to ever consider analyzing the outcome for fear of contemplating the unknown. The market had clearly favored Bautista by favoritism with no substantial reason to uphold it, except forcing one into conjecture on the premise that Ferrer had suddenly become too old to keep up with Bautista. That must be a lie sponsored from the pit of hell because it now seems to be everyone's reason for taking Bautista on all the major forums. Ferrer showed in his last match that he is still intense and gritty as he locked Escobedo in a straight jacket and frustrated him with determined resistance. The odds have since been moving, speaking volumes as to how this match will work out in whatever capacity you understand market analysis. Ferrer now stands at 4/9, with Bautista now at 7/4. What does this mean for me? Market moves now favoring Bautista with the Market force favoring Ferrer. (It might require a separate webinar to discuss market dynamics) This may well go to four or five sets, but I can now see only one winner for certain. David Ferrer!!!! Good luck!

[liquidglass]

12 hours ago, KillerKat said:

Massive hello to all the punters here, I've been an avid reader for a while now. I'm now going to join in the fun and give my two cents. I'm quite surprised to see Roger as the favourite against Nishikori. What are your thoughts on that? Surely, Roger is not match ready yet in a best of 5

I think you are right in Roger not match ready to play a best of 5. You do not really need a soothsayer to tell you that. This is how I see it. Tennis today has evolved a lot since the days of Mcenroe and Sampras and the early Federer era where the only weapon you required as a champ was skill. In those days such players could come back from lengthy layoffs to resume winning ways just like that. Now the emphasis is not just on skill, but a whole lot on the mental and physical conditioning. The ability to stay in a 21 to 30 stroke rally time after time while keeping your intensity level at its optimum. These are the sort of complex problems that the Murrays, Djokovic's and Nishikoris could bring a now mundane player like federer. So one can expect him to sparkle in the first 2 sets and a bit more. However I do not see him being able to cope with the physical and mental questions that will come later on in the match from a guy like Nishikori who really is a more the credible contender for the title this year. Nishikor win 9/10*****

[owenclass]

I thought Makarova was going to win this match. But her opponent is coming back

[CzechPunter]

Shame that Simon didn't win the tie-break, but it will be a reasonable day if Dimitrov wins. Will be hoping that Rafa defeats Monfils and RBA stuns Raonic. BZS can do the job against Serena Williams, she's got what it takes, but it would be a big upset obviously. Just one for tomorrow, really tough matches to predict, in terms of outrights I hope that Kerber goes all the way, but that's about it. Murray/Wawrinka/Tsonga all big favourites, but the handicaps are completely borderline, Murray can win 6-2 6-2 6-2 or 6-4 6-4 6-4, I mean what's more likely, right?

[KillerKat]

Taking this nice and early - Goffin to beat Thiem @8/11 on Bet365

I watched Thiem play both against Thompson and Paire and he's not on his game 100%. He's making a lot of unforced errors and his balls aren't hitting the lines like how they were last season which is what made him so effective. He's getting a bit impatient in rallies and is pulling the trigger too early too often and this usually results in an unforced error.

Goffin who in my opinion has a better defensive game than Paire is going to expose this with his defensive skills and movement. Goffin is also a fairly good and accurate ball striker himself. And finally, Thiem had to be assisted by a physio multiple times during his game today. He required some massage with his arm, although this could be precautionary, this is also an added factor. 

 

 

[HurlyBurlyMan]

I'm on Goffin on the outright at big odds but I won't be trading out yet. I agree with you Killerkat, I think he has a great chance v Thiem. He holds a winning head-to-head and if you take out the retirement he's only lost to Thiem twice, both times on clay. It might be the faster conditions here will favour him so I see him progressing to the quarters at least.

Also noticed a big drift on Murray in the outright today on betfair, out to 2.16. That looks huge to me (4/5, 5/6 with the books) so I've had more on (I'm already on him). Don't see whats behind the drift, the injury concern was put to bed in his last match. 

 

 

[ogii55]

Pavliuchenkova - Kuznecova 2.30 Will Hill

 

Pavliuchenkova beat Sveta few days ago. Kuznecova had a very tough match against Jankovic, but managed to win it. Pavliuchenkova is great fighter, who beat top form Svitolina. Pretty close match with some odds edge fir Nastya.