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jamiedavies02

FA Cup 2017 > Outright

3 posts in this topic

FA_Cup_1.jpg

Thoughts

No surprises at the head of the market with the big 6 dominating the betting, however, I am willing to strike a line though all of those at the moment with a view to making one or two of them no loss as the tournement progresses. I have various reasons for striking a line through them, detailed below;

Chelsea - Current league leaders (3rd on my shots ratings), Only 3 sides since the turn of the century have completed the league and cup double, their priority is obviously the title. If it looks like Chelsea have the title sewn up anytime soon, I will look to make these no loss.

Liverpool - In the title race, need to solidfy top 4 spot and in the EFL Cup semi-final

Man City - In the title race, need to solidfy top 4 spot and in the Champions League latter stages

Arsenal - In the title race, need to solidfy top 4 spot and in the Champions League latter stages, They have won 2 of the 3 runnings, but their top 4 spot has been more secure in years past than it looks this season

Tottenham - In the title race, need to solidfy top 4 spot and in the Europa League latter stages

Man Utd - In the title race, need to solidfy top 4 spot, EFL Cup semi-final and in the Europa League latter stages

I'm also willing to rule out Leicester, whose priorities will be Champions League and Premier League survival.

Relegation candidates whose priority will be survival I'll put a line through are Burnley (currently midtable I know but given their away form is so poor every home game is cup final for them, Watford, Boro, Palace,Sunderland, Swansea and Hull.

After alot of crossing out I'm left with a shortlist of 6 teams who I feel stand the best chance of having a good, solid cup run - Everton, Southampton, West Ham, Bournemouth, Stoke & West Brom.

Everton are a side I like, they rank 8th on my shots ratings and have a decent enough recent record in the competition in recent years without actually winning it.

Southampton, again perform well on my ratings (7th) but they are struggling to score goals lately and they look to be regressing in recent weeks.

West Ham, can't put anybody off West Ham, average on ratings only 7 points above relegation but can't see them getting sucked into a scrap, 5th round and a Quarter final last couple of years and one to keep an eye on.

Bournemouth, again can't put anybody off Bournemouth, average on ratings but 10 points above relegtaion - my only concern is that they're abit soft defencely.

Stoke, similar to above, average on ratings but shouldn't need to worry about relegation

West Brom, you know the script, average on ratings, don't need to worry about relegation, the last two seasons they have been to the 5th round and Quarter Finals, Tony Pulis took a Stoke team of similar profile to the final in 2011

Selections

Everton to win the FA Cup @ 25/1 0.5 points each way

West Brom to win the FA Cup @ 66/1 0.5 points each way

 

StevieDay1983 likes this

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Stan James haven't changed their prices since the 4th round draw - at the prices I like Middlesbrough e/w @ 66/1, a home draw in round 4 against Accrington, win that and they'll be in the 5th round, time to take the competition seriously.

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