Weekend > Jan 14th & 15th

[andrewcalo]

Fuck me, Burnley draw no bet is 2.5!

[andrewcalo]

2) Who will be hit hardest by absences through Africa Cup of Nations?

No other Premier League team has lost more players to the Africa Cup of Nations than Sunderland or Stoke City. For David Moyes’s side, Lamine Koné, Didier Ndong and Wahbi Khazri have departed to join Ivory Coast, Gabon and Tunisia respectively, while Wilfried Bony, Mame Biram Diouf and Ramadan Sobhi have also flown the coop. Who will feel the absences harder? Koné remains Sunderland’s best defender, despite their encouraging displays without him in the past two matches, and he will be sorely missed against a physical strike force likely to consist of Peter Crouch and Jonathan Walters. Should these two be repelled, Sunderland will fancy their chances at home against a Stoke side lacking in other attacking options – with Bojan reportedly the subject of a bid from Middlesbrough – and a defence who have shipped 11 goals in the last three games on the road.

From https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2017/jan/13/premier-league-10-things-to-look-out-for-this-weekend

[Mindfulness]

Burnley V Southampton

Burnley +0.50 @ 1.746 Matchbook

Burnley is turning into a huge public bet here, I fear the savvy markets are about to make fools of us all LOL. Despite my fear and loathing of public bets I have to jump on the bandwagon as +0.50 for the home side looks to be generous.

Burnley do have issues in wide positions for this encounter with a number of players unavailable and this is a concern. On the flipside, Southmapton also have a few important absences to contend while recovery time has been short since the league cup semi final midweek. The fact that Southmapton won that game should also not be ignored as their confidence should be strong for this game despite the likelihood of physical fatigue.

Regardless of all the rumours, speculation and conjecture that surround this fixture I just feel that an away trip to Burnley is not what the doctor ordered after playing a big midweek game. I don't expect Southampton to roll over here, I also feel that those backing Burnley for the win will end up disappointed but the home side at +0.50 should be viewed as an opportunity imo.

Maybe the markets know something we don't, they're no fools, but they're not perfect either.

 

[andrewcalo]

LAWRO'S PREDICTION

Burnley are a top-five team based on their results at Turf Moor so, weighing all of that up, this might seem like a home banker.
But you cannot expect the Clarets to win every home game they play, which is why I throw in a draw for them every now and again.
Prediction: 1-1

Lol seasoned commentary there from top expert Lawro.

Sounds morel like a punter with a fiver to chuck on an an accy with only 5 mins 'til kick off lol

 

[KikoCy]

@andrewcalo Paul Merson predicting a 2-0 to Burnley too.

 

[andrewcalo]

13 minutes ago, KikoCy said:

@andrewcalo Paul Merson predicting a 2-0 to Burnley too.

 

Something aint right here.

This could be nil-nil.

[KikoCy]

6 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

Something aint right here.

This could be nil-nil.

Merson also threw me off there! Prices ain't dropping just yet though.

[andrewcalo]

Tip I just bought on a bet site...

[KikoCy]

I can see Pulis parking the bus, no problem.

The issue is WBA scoring but I would be surprised if Spurs win with more than 1-2 goals.

[malabgd]

Swansea City v Arsenal

Swansea City: Neil Taylor (11/0 d), Modou Barrow (18/0 f), Luciano Narsingh (0/0 f), Jefferson Montero (11/0 m)

Arsenal: Hector Bellerin (17/0 d), Francis Coquelin (17/0 m), Mohamed Elneny (11/0 m, national selection), Kieran Gibbs (5/0 d), Theo Walcott (16/8 f, 2nd top scorer), Mathieu Debuchy (1/0 d), Santi Cazorla (8/2 m), Per Mertesacker (0/0 d)

 

Watford FC v Middlesbrough

Watford FC: Craig Cathcart (6/0 d, doubtful), Adlene Guédioura (12/0 m, national selection), Nordin Amrabat (18/0 m), Isaac Success (8/1 f), Daryl Janmaat (11/1 d), Roberto Pereyra (13/2 f), Adrian Mariappa (0/0 d)

Middlesbrough: Daniel Ayala (6/1 d, suspended), Gaston Ramirez (17/2 m), Antonio Barragán (19/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[mrclubbie]

Tottenham on a 6 straight win streak in all competitions

Tottenham on a 5 straight win streak in their last 5 PL home matches

West Brom have not lost by 2 goals or more in all of their PL away matches this season

Tottenham have not won at White Hart Lane against West Brom since 2012

Since returning to EPL in 2010-11 season, West Brom have won only once against Spurs, losing 4 and drawing 8

[mrclubbie]

The last time Southampton lost 4 straight EPL matches was in 2014

Southampton are winless in last 3 EPL matches - This EPL season alone they have encountered twice 4-match winless streak (matchday 1, 2, 3, 4 and matchday 9, 10, 11, 12)

Only Swansea, Hull, Arsenal and Man City managed to get some points from Turf Moor this season

[vasilli07]

Watford DNB @ 1.79

I think the crowd could play a big part in this game. With the passing of Graham Taylor, the crowd won't get on their players back even if they are rubbish as this is the last thing the late Graham Taylor wants to see. Hopefully this will lift the pressure off Watford and steer them to a win as a parting gift to their best manager of all times. 

[Pep004]

Diego Costa rulled out of Chelsea squad against Leicester after argue with Conte.

Good question is if everything about this fight is true or not, and it's just a normal injury.

 

Otherwise I really like Tottenham 1st H bet (odds around 1,83) and Burnley dnb as well.

Edited January 14, 2017 by Pep004

[andrewcalo]

21 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

Burnley V Southampton

Burnley +0.50 @ 1.746 Matchbook

Burnley is turning into a huge public bet here, I fear the savvy markets are about to make fools of us all LOL. Despite my fear and loathing of public bets I have to jump on the bandwagon as +0.50 for the home side looks to be generous.

Burnley do have issues in wide positions for this encounter with a number of players unavailable and this is a concern. On the flipside, Southmapton also have a few important absences to contend while recovery time has been short since the league cup semi final midweek. The fact that Southmapton won that game should also not be ignored as their confidence should be strong for this game despite the likelihood of physical fatigue.

Regardless of all the rumours, speculation and conjecture that surround this fixture I just feel that an away trip to Burnley is not what the doctor ordered after playing a big midweek game. I don't expect Southampton to roll over here, I also feel that those backing Burnley for the win will end up disappointed but the home side at +0.50 should be viewed as an opportunity imo.

Maybe the markets know something we don't, they're no fools, but they're not perfect either.

 

Southampton rotate A LOT. They have a fat experienced squad to choose from.

buzz in Swansea is that the Jacks can go to Arsenal and steal a win, FYI.

 

[Mindfulness]

45 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

Southampton rotate A LOT. They have a fat experienced squad to choose from.

buzz in Swansea is that the Jacks can go to Arsenal and steal a win, FYI.

 

Sorry, I don't understand, what is your point about Southampton?

[Pep004]

F... I totally forgot that Tottenham starts at 13:30.. It was one of the strongest picks for the weekend.. 

[andrewcalo]

28 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

Sorry, I don't understand, what is your point about Southampton?

They've got a big squad - so mid-week play/fatigue isn't such a factor.

[Mindfulness]

9 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

They've got a big squad - so mid-week play/fatigue isn't such a factor.

Well they have several key players out for Burnley game while several other first teamers are doubts. Net effect is that Southampton will not be able to field strongest lineup at Burnley today + Burnley have had more recovery time overall and longer to prepare for said fixture. Besides, if you read my post carefully you will see that I am the most cautious of all the Burnley backers today and that's why I take +0.50 line.

You better hope that Southampton's rotation capacity isn't that big a factor since you are the one that's going big on Burnley today.

[andrewcalo]

Right!

I'll be emailing My Dyche and mis-spelling his name as Douche if they don't get something.

[Mindfulness]

Er, why is Burnley +0.50 now at EVS???

Is the game rigged or something?

[Spooner]

Very odd, Southampton are into 1.98 on the exchanges, quite incredible if you are taking that price about an away win, that has to be a lay. 

[andrewcalo]

People laying the Soton win? i.e. Betfair Exchange...

[Spooner]

On 10/01/2017, 19:27:19, Spooner said:

Haven't posted for a while but I'll return with this....

Burnley DNB v Southampton (13/8 Hills, 6/4 PP) represents excellent value to beat an out of sorts Southampton side. Southampton won the reverse fixture comfortably 3-1 & in truth it could of been more, however Southampton aren't playing like they were then & have suffered a dip in form, with Burnley's home form being solid for a promoted side things could be very different here. The saints have only won twice when playing away from St Mary's in 10 this season. They also have an important semi-final tomorrow against Liverpool which will be a tough game, whilst Burnley have had all week to prepare for this one. Burnley have seen better sides then Southampton off here already & they have to be the play with draw cover. 

Burnley managed to sneak a 1-0 victory, better prices were around before kick-off which was surprising.

Onto tomorrow, 'Super Sunday' often proves to be anything but that however I think we could see goals in both games tomorrow. City head to Everton first up & the visitors have gone overs in 8 of their 10 away games in the league this season, only failing to find the net at Spurs & Liverpool. It's surprising to see Everton haven't conceded more then once in any home fixture this season in the league as I don't think their defence is that solid. They've shown away from Goodison their defensive vulnerability & thinking back to when United/Arsenal came here, there were more goals in that game for both those sides withmissed opportunities. If City are anything like as clinical as they were against West Ham last week then they'll bring the overs in on their own. With Lukaku upfront & City also not that defensively sound there's a good chance Everton will score at least once so I think you have to side with goals here.

The reverse fixture of United v Liverpool was as dull as it gets, built up to be a Monday night classic & thinking back to that 3-3 they played out in the 90's, Mourinho had other ideas. It was a different moment for the visitors that day but they are on this winning run now and will see a completely different mentality from them here. Ibrahimovic is flying, midfielders look like creating & scoring, game changers waiting in the wings. Liverpool are a side under Klopp & any game they play in I immediately think goals, whether that be for their attacking force or their defensive failings you'll usually get goals when Liverpool play, I see no reason why we won't see 3+ here. 

The over 2.5 goals double is best price at a shade over 11/4 @ betfair with generally 5/2 on offer at most firms & betfair seem keen to take on the goals as their also best price on the 3.5 goals double. Very speculative punt on the bottom one just incase. 

Everton/City & United/Liverpool +2.5 goals @ 11/4

Everton/City & United/Liverpool +3.5 goals @ 21/2

Both teams to score in both halves in both games 284/1 Skybet

Edited January 14, 2017 by Spooner
Spelling

[betcatalog]

Each derby is special, so tips are very difficult, however I expect to score both teams, Liverpool has the best attack in the league, while Manchester can exploit the defensive shortcomings of rivals and score at least once
MANCHESTER UNITED vs LIVERPOOL FC @@ Both team to score, odds 1.73

[Pep004]

IMO 1-0, 0-0

[WinningAdvice]

Wasn't able to bet on most games but was able to place one on Man United vs Liverpool. I'm backing a 1-1 draw between these two clubs.

[sajtion]

i think man utd will win 2-1 or 3-1

[Pep004]

PICK: Manchester City AH -1 @2,53 PINNACLE 2/10

Match between 7th and 5th placed team in English Premier league will be played on Goodison Park and it will start at 14:30.

Everton is coming to match after disappointing defeat in FA Cup against Leicester City which was one of few defeats on their Goodison Park. They play 1-1 against Manchester United, won 2-1 against Arsenal,  while Liverpool was the only team managed to beat them. They succeeded to score the only goal on the match in 95th minute! Stats are just showing how good Everton is at home, but this time they will be without Gueye who is on ACN. Except him, Bolasie is out for longer period, while first goalkeeper Stekelenburg is coming back to squad after injury, but coach Ronald Koeman didn't say exactly if Stekelenburg will start or not. It's also not sure if we'll see Schneiderlin from first minute or not, but even if we will, I think that Morgan will need time to adapt to Everton's style, even if Koeman knows him perfectly from Southampton.

For Manchester City, that's another "final game" and they did well on all matches like this in this season. Why final? Because main opponents are running away and even if Everton is tough PL team, they need to beat them if they want to continue with fight for top. Chelsea is on +10 right now. Citizens played great match against West Ham, outplayed them totally and now they will need to put this performance on another stadium, which is different, with crowd closer to the pitch, also shorter pitch, but they have more time to prepare on match, as there is no CL, they were able to rest more and even if they will be without suspended Fernandinho, injured Gundogan, while Fernando and Sane are still not 100%, great news for Citizens is that Kompany is coming back and even if he won't start, it will be a massive boost to have captain on bench or on pitch. Pep knows how important is role of captain in team, and I believe that he is really happy to have Vincent back. They're key players are in good form and in my opinion quality is on their side.

One of the main facts why I'm taking this match is what happened on first match (1-1). City missed two penalties, missed bunch of crazy chanes, while Everton scored from one of few chances. City was all over the pitch, playing really good, but finishing was disaster. I believe that players remember this match, and that they will be even eager to get all 3 points today. They will need to be careful on Everton's direct way of playing, but if Everton won't be lucky again, I think that City will win it even with more than 1 goal difference.

[andrewcalo]

Got to disagree with Pep. I think the Scousers will have a good day with Liverpool win and Man City draw.