UK Weekend > Jan 5th - 9th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

It is the FA Cup 3rd Round this weekend so a lot to think about. Interested to not only get the thoughts of regular UK Football contributors such as @Kenton Schweppes, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @sajtion, @louis12, @johnabpd, @salmonman, @Bobby Vegas, @jamiedavies02, @Punki85, @Simeon Borisof, and @Tiffy but also keen to hear from the Premier League posters including @andrewcalo, @Pep004, @mrclubbie, @neilovan, and @Mindfulness.

In addition to the FA Cup, there are also some League One and League Two fixtures for the sides already knocked out of the FA Cup. Taking a look at the games coming up, I'm usually reluctant to get involved in the FA Cup 3rd Round but I am liking some of the value. Teams such as Accrington, Everton, Hull, Sunderland, and Swindon are very attractive.

What are you guys eyeing up?

[sajtion]

fa cup this weekend especially after busy christmas and new year period is asking for major losses. there is likely to be major rotations in squad selections and there is bound to be manager who just don't give a damn about it. in the past there has been far too many circus goal fests which i absolutely hate and it never turns out as expected. i've experienced too much frustrations in fa cup so staying away from it

[andrewcalo]

FA Cup betting ... fucking hell here we go ... 

[StevieDay1983]

23 minutes ago, sajtion said:

fa cup this weekend especially after busy christmas and new year period is asking for major losses. there is likely to be major rotations in squad selections and there is bound to be manager who just don't give a damn about it. in the past there has been far too many circus goal fests which i absolutely hate and it never turns out as expected. i've experienced too much frustrations in fa cup so staying away from it

Yeah, I agree about the unpredictable nature of it. Neil Warnock has already come out and said he's fielding a back-up side against Fulham. However, it's still a fairly strong side with the likes of Emyr Huws, Peter Whittingham, and Jazz Richards expected to start. I wonder what side Jokanovic will put out for Fulham.

[sajtion]

i mean you could still go for something small stake. i just hate the agony of waiting for results to come in. it's like betting on overwhelming favorite only to see it fall a goal behind against nobody and fight back in dying minutes to save a draw and then extra time. it's total crap....when it should have been a straightforward victory but that's fa cup. if i had a go i'd bet on both teams to score on couple matches. i'll see about that later in a week

[andrewcalo]

Yeah so you pick your bets and go against them...look for a cash out...money to be made...

[Simeon Borisof]

I think on the contrary-Allthethings had written somekind of an article about these type of bets in the FA which basically was saying that going against the big teams has proved profitable through the years because you can get odds of 4.5-5-5 on the underdogs and you need just a couple of bets to be winning in order to make money so you what you have to do is to choose a few games and place money on  underdogs in them hoping that 2 or more will be winning ones.

[andrewcalo]

Where is that article?

[Simeon Borisof]

I couldn't find what was i reffering to and you might want to ask him about more details but that's what i found:

 

Been thinking on this. It's not a glass half empty view. It's more a judgment that you don't know how you can possibly back a favorite, given that neither team is playing most of its regulars (meaning, the people who have created the team's record on the field, which is what we all use as the basis of our bets). And you're right. You think: This is a crapshoot. And I agree. If you thought the odds might be 40-60, say, that Chesterfield would win at Rochdale, there's no way you would back Rochdale at 1.52.

I've found that these games are crapshoots by looking at years of results. I think, if the odds might be 40-60 that Chesterfield could win at Rochdale, I'll gladly take the 5.41 to find out. If there were four of these games where a League Two or low League One side was traveling to face a top League One side that was heavily favored, how many would have to win to show profit? The answer is one. Today there were two of four, and that doesn't include winners Mansfield (odds drop from 4.5 to 3.13) or Brighton U23 (odds drop from 4.1 to 3.08).

For tomorrow, Cambridge, Crawley and Wycombe currently have odds of 4.78 to 5.42, away to Bradford, Coventry and Millwall. The only thing that might make me hesitate before backing them all is the fact that today the dogs went 2-2-0.

Just remember that if you're getting odds of 4.00 you only need to win 25 percent to break even. I won 14 of 48 in group play playing big dogs.

 

P.S Since he posted that i found it profitable too.You just need to dig deeper and find what has been teams approach to the competition through the years,i mean the underdogs.Do they pay attention to it or just want to get rid of it.Also many favourites tend to play youngsters against weaker teams who use their A team aiming to go further in the competition.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Simeon Borisof

[StevieDay1983]

It's an interesting perspective. I am a big fan of the FA Cup. One of my first Cardiff games was when we beat Manchester City at Ninian Park 1-0 when Nathan Blake scored that worldy. I've had a love affair with it ever since and us reaching the final in 2008 only enhanced that love. I'm keen to focus on handicap bets but often favour a narrow margin. It isn't often that a favourite absolutely destroys the underdog because the underdog fights with their lives. So backing teams to win by 1 or 2 goals at the most can be a decent option. You have to go for an exact guess though. Odds are terrible for backing a favourite to win by 1 goal or more.

[sajtion]

i would back man utd and reading both to score. reading have positive attacking attitude in games. jaap stam returning to old trafford pumps up the encounter even more. i just don't know how much christmas busty schedule has taken out of reading but their recent comeback against bristol city was impressive. mourinho may be targeting the fa cup as a potential trophy this season so btts for me yes

i expect luton to score as they play expansive attacking football and accrington have been really average side all season but i also expect them to score

blackpool form has turned for the worst. i was backing them last few weeks but i am ready to oppose them here. their goals have dried out. barnsley usually score many goals 

crystal palace to win away to bolton seems good. when you look at bolton results over last several weeks in lower league they were narrow 1-0 or 2-1 but i don't see it against premiership side. sam allardyce will be disappointed to lose his match against swansea and will want to get his crystal palace players galvanised to start winning.

bournemouth was excellent against arsenal match scoring three goals so it shows they have confident players and fighting spirit. before promotion a seasons ago they rampaged through the championship and scoring with ease. they should get the better of millwall but i would back both to score just to be safe

i don't think qpr or blackburn give a damn about fa cup. they are more concerned with surviving relegation so definitely avoiding this one

few more to consider

wycombe
watford
burnley
stoke
 

[StevieDay1983]

3 hours ago, sajtion said:

i would back man utd and reading both to score. reading have positive attacking attitude in games. jaap stam returning to old trafford pumps up the encounter even more. i just don't know how much christmas busty schedule has taken out of reading but their recent comeback against bristol city was impressive. mourinho may be targeting the fa cup as a potential trophy this season so btts for me yes

i expect luton to score as they play expansive attacking football and accrington have been really average side all season but i also expect them to score

blackpool form has turned for the worst. i was backing them last few weeks but i am ready to oppose them here. their goals have dried out. barnsley usually score many goals 

crystal palace to win away to bolton seems good. when you look at bolton results over last several weeks in lower league they were narrow 1-0 or 2-1 but i don't see it against premiership side. sam allardyce will be disappointed to lose his match against swansea and will want to get his crystal palace players galvanised to start winning.

bournemouth was excellent against arsenal match scoring three goals so it shows they have confident players and fighting spirit. before promotion a seasons ago they rampaged through the championship and scoring with ease. they should get the better of millwall but i would back both to score just to be safe

i don't think qpr or blackburn give a damn about fa cup. they are more concerned with surviving relegation so definitely avoiding this one

few more to consider

wycombe
watford
burnley
stoke
 

The one thing Eddie Howe has done well is create a real squad with depth at Bournemouth. It reminds of Manchester United under Sir Alex Ferguson. Everyone knows the strategies and formations used. Players can come in and out of the team without impacting on the cohesion. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bournemouth have a decent cup run in the next few seasons. I'd love to see them win the FA Cup and go into Europe.

[sajtion]

potential upset could be reading but i don't see them winning it but a draw is likely if man utd rotate squad. sheff wednesday is another as middlesborough just doesn't score enough goals and if negredo is rested than they are completely toothless up front. lower division teams usually bring the game on and play to score goals. port vale is another one although they are poor travelers in the league so you'd be going against a trend if deciding to back them in any sort of way. derby match is likely to be tight so there is a chance it could swing their way. pulis rested some senior players previous time when it ended in stalemate and a repeat. if steve mcclaren comes looking for the win than derby could surprise 

[Sir Puntalot]

On 03/01/2017, 11:39:47, andrewcalo said:

FA Cup betting ... fucking hell here we go ... 

That made me chuckle  

[andrewcalo]

Russian Roulette is more predicable. 

[Tiffy]

Brighton V MKD

Although we will see a much changed side at the Amex's on Saturday, I still believe that Brighton can get a win. The U23 have been playing well this season, and there is a lot of strength in depth now at Brighton. Most of the fringe players will be wanting to prove to Chris Hughton that they are good enough to play in the first team. This is their chance to do that.

We had a similar situation a few seasons back. A New Years Day fixture against Southampton, who were at the top (& got promoted that season) & playing well. Brighton had injuries and suspensions and had 4/5 fringe players playing. I said to my son that this was their chance to prove to Gus Poyet that they were good enough, and they would have to put in a performance.

we won comfortably, 3-0, a result no one expected! (Well, except me!)

i'd go for

Brighton to win

Brighton -1AH

Brighton/Brighton HT/FT

i also fancy Bolton to get something out of Crystal Palace. Perhaps backing on the handicap. Big Sam will make wholesale changes, and won't care about the cup.there is always a team on the slide, who loses/draws to lower league opposition.

Bolton +2?

 

[allyhibs]

My bet for this round of fixtures is Hibs to beat Dundee Utd @ 5/6.

Reasoning is simple: We're better than them and we'll beat them

I've not had a proper look at anything else yet. I don't get involved in the cups other than the odd longshot accumulator, i'll try and have a look later but i'm on holiday in Thailand at the moment so it's not that easy.

 

 

[dave5perth]

allyhibs....... what's the team news for Hibs, are you expecting your team to be at full strength?

[Magic0024]

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next FA Cup games:

West Bromwich Albion have won 80% of their last 5 matches at the Hawthorns.

Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their away matches in all competitions this season.

West Ham United have scored in 79% of their home matches.

You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-9/

[Darran]

I never understand why people say they don't like betting on the FA Cup. Do the research and either try and find a team you think can cause an upset or find teams you think look good things. Upsets happen in league football as well, but there is less focus on them because you get league games every week. I usually do pretty well on it myself. This year the 1st Round didn't go great, but the 2nd Round I put up Sutton and Barrow to cause the upsets. The Qualifying rounds treated me pretty well as well. Sadly this weekend none of the non-league teams make any punting appeal. Sutton are of interest but I backed them at a bigger price to beat Cheltenham in the previous round so to take shorter against a team in the league above seems a bit silly. Barrow could cause Rochdale problems as well although Rochdale are in very good form at the moment.

[malabgd]

West Ham v Manchester City

(Sofiane Feghouli (9/0 m) is available for West Ham after winning an appeal against his red card.)

West Ham: James Collins (9/1 d), Reece Oxford (0/0 d), Sam Byram (5/0 d)(all doubtful), Cheikhou Kouyaté (18/0 m), Andre Ayew (12/1 f)(both national selection), Arthur Masuaku (6/0 d), Alvaro Arbeloa (3/0 d), Diafra Sakho (2/1 f), Gokhan Töre (5/0 m)

Manchester City: Fernando (11/0 m, doubtful), Fernandinho (17/1 m, suspended), Leroy Sane (9/1 m), Ilkay Gündoğan (10/3 m), Vincent Kompany (3/0 d, captain), Fabian Delph (2/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[andrewcalo]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jan/06/fa-cup-third-round-10-things-to-look-out-for-this-weekend 

[StevieDay1983]

4 hours ago, addpea said:

I never understand why people say they don't like betting on the FA Cup. Do the research and either try and find a team you think can cause an upset or find teams you think look good things. Upsets happen in league football as well, but there is less focus on them because you get league games every week. I usually do pretty well on it myself. This year the 1st Round didn't go great, but the 2nd Round I put up Sutton and Barrow to cause the upsets. The Qualifying rounds treated me pretty well as well. Sadly this weekend none of the non-league teams make any punting appeal. Sutton are of interest but I backed them at a bigger price to beat Cheltenham in the previous round so to take shorter against a team in the league above seems a bit silly. Barrow could cause Rochdale problems as well although Rochdale are in very good form at the moment.

Good to see you deliver your opinions here, addpea. I wonder why Sutton are priced shorter against a better team in this round? Yes, they've got the giant killer buzz. Is it interest from punters that has seen them shorten?

[Darran]

3 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Good to see you deliver your opinions here, addpea. I wonder why Sutton are priced shorter against a better team in this round? Yes, they've got the giant killer buzz. Is it interest from punters that has seen them shorten?

I suspect it is just the bookies wanting to be shorter than they were before. They were the only team I was considering backing, but like I say the price I think needs to be a little bigger to have wanted to have got involved. As an aside, AFC played Sutton in their first ever game in 2002 and Sutton won 4-0.

[allyhibs]

13 hours ago, dave5perth said:

allyhibs....... what's the team news for Hibs, are you expecting your team to be at full strength?

Sorry Dave, didn't see this till too late, like i said, i'm on holiday 

Hibs have had McGinn and Fyvie out injured for a few weeks now and they still didn't start last night, so, no, we weren't going to be full strength, they are arguably our best 2 midfielders, but we are still clearly better than Utd even with players missing.

Hope you backed Hibs 

 

[allyhibs]

10 hours ago, addpea said:

I never understand why people say they don't like betting on the FA Cup. Do the research and either try and find a team you think can cause an upset or find teams you think look good things. Upsets happen in league football as well, but there is less focus on them because you get league games every week. I usually do pretty well on it myself. This year the 1st Round didn't go great, but the 2nd Round I put up Sutton and Barrow to cause the upsets. The Qualifying rounds treated me pretty well as well. Sadly this weekend none of the non-league teams make any punting appeal. Sutton are of interest but I backed them at a bigger price to beat Cheltenham in the previous round so to take shorter against a team in the league above seems a bit silly. Barrow could cause Rochdale problems as well although Rochdale are in very good form at the moment.

I can't speak for anyone else but for me it's because of the uncertainty around knowing which clubs are taking the competition seriously or not. You don't want to pile in with a big bet only to find out when the teams are announced that they're resting some of their key players. It happens.

[matrixman]

I cant believe anyone has mentioned Stourbridge!  A 7th tier team still alive in this round is insane! Would not surprise me in the slightest to see them winning this match! Its not like they don't have experience in the cup going far for them the last few years..Even them on the handicap to bring a draw back home is a strong play!!

[Neubs]

I´m today on Bolton DNB, because Big Sam said, that the priority is definitly not the FA Cup - only to stay in the PL. So this was also thats whats the Chairman of Place said, told Big Sam. Including with the fact, that they have today big missings.

http://www.cpfc.co.uk/news/article/2016-17/sam-allardyce-has-provided-an-update-on-the-nine-injured-crystal-palace-players-3505352.aspx

So for these odds at the moment i have take Bolton DNB @ 2.50 by tipico

[Darran]

8 hours ago, allyhibs said:

I can't speak for anyone else but for me it's because of the uncertainty around knowing which clubs are taking the competition seriously or not. You don't want to pile in with a big bet only to find out when the teams are announced that they're resting some of their key players. It happens.

But that is my point. Do the research and you will find out who is and who isn't picking their first team. You can even wait until the teams are announced before having a bet.