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jamiedavies02

Midweek > 20th - 22nd Dec

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Quiet midweek with only 3 fixtures...

Can soembody please tell me what I'm missing about the Plymouth price? I rate them as a far superior side to Newport, they won the league meeting here 3-1 off an Asian HC of -0.25, they go off scratch on Wednesday. For the initial cup tie Plymouth made 4 changes to their lineup from the previous match - 1 of which was enforced through suspension. An lucrative away day at Anfield awaits the winners, I'm sure that'll motivate both sets of players

Edited by jamiedavies02

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21 hours ago, jamiedavies02 said:

Can soembody please tell me what I'm missing about the Plymouth price? I rate them as a far superior side to Newport, they won the league meeting here 3-1 off an Asian HC of -0.25, they go off scratch on Wednesday. For the initial cup tie Plymouth made 4 changes to their lineup from the previous match - 1 of which was enforced through suspension. An lucrative away day at Anfield awaits the winners, I'm sure that'll motivate both sets of players

Basically, a clash between bottom of table and top of table. Newport have been inconsistent, while Plymouth have recovered from their play-off disappointment to top the league at Christmas - same as last year. Moreover, Plymouth were dumped out of cup football early on last season and would clearly want to atone for that this time round. Plymouth are coming from a battling 1-0 away win against Accrington on Saturday - Plymouth's eighth away win this season and highlighting their away prowess since Derek Adams took over at the beginning of last season. They have outscored their opponents away by an aggregate of 16 goals to 7.

Newport lost 3-1 away to Crawley on Saturday - their fourth league defeat on the bounce but could be a turning point as the team competed well on shots and shots on target. But Manager Graham Westley subsequently lambasted his team for indiscipline (received 9 yellow cards) as well as a 'lack of work ethic'. He expects a reaction in this FA cup tie, which is an opportunity for Newport to put aside their pressures in the league. And prior to their last two recent home losses to in-form Wycombe and Stevenage; Newport had three consecutive home wins - 2-0 against League One side Wimbledon in the EFL Trophy, 2-0 against Carlisle in the league, and 4-1 against Non-League Alfreton in the FA cup. This last detail could be the answer  to your question - Newport has recently been strong at home in cup ties. Perhaps Newport are beginning to exploit their poor pitch as opponents find difficulty to adapt to the pitch conditions. Another is that Plymouth failed to beat Newport at home in the first game (ended 0-0), even after Newport were reduced to ten men. Moreover, Plymouth fans are anxious that their team tends to flop during broadcast matches!

Given the big prize at stake - an opportunity to play at Anfield and financial rewards in excess of 500,000 pounds with broadcast fees and gate receipts; this tie will be like a cup final. A poor pitch, two highly motivated teams with passionate support from the stands, will make for a dramatic and tense game. For me, its BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.

 

 

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At this time of the year, a long trip can often have a bigger impact than usual. Particularly during midweek. Even though Newport is one of Plymouth's closest fixtures it's still an 8 hour round trip. At this time of the year, that can prove to be detrimental to a side. Plymouth are clearly still the favourites but I can see the reduced odds. The Pilgrims have also lost three of their last five games. Yes, they have won their last two with clean sheets but there have been problems over the past month. As I said, Plymouth still the favourites but I can understand the caution from the bookies.

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