Festive Fixtures > Dec 26th - 28th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

The first batch of Premier League festive fixtures are here. It will be fascinating to see how teams cope with this schedule. Chelsea looking to make it 12 wins in a row. They have got to be backed at home to a Bournemouth side that looked a little off colour this weekend.

@andrewcalo, a must win for your lads at home on Monday surely? Is Bob Bradley's position under threat or is it paper talk? Not sure who you could appoint? Maybe big Sam Allardyce but he goes against the style of the club doesn't he?

@vasilli07, you were one person that backed Stoke to beat Leicester. Amazing that it didn't come off with Leicester playing for so long with 10 men.

@Pep004, were you as surprised as me at Hull's dominance in their game against West Ham. They still lost but it could easily have been 3-1. If they find a striker in January they could start picking up points again.

@immortal--, you're a wise man not backing Leicester right now. Any games here taking your fancy?

@Mindfulness, even though you lads didn't beat Chelsea you have to be encouraged by the performance? Your odds against Watford are a little tempting. I'd be more comfortable if you were the home team mind.

@sajtion, I actually think David Moyes is starting to get things sorted at Sunderland now. I think they will still be down there but they are a very hard team to beat now. I'm not convinced they will get relegated. It's a tall order this round of games though. Can see United, hitting a purple patch right now, sticking 2 or 3 on them here.

@mrclubbie, some interesting views regarding West Brom. Reckon they can shock Arsenal? Tony Pulis does know how to take Arsene Wenger down!

@Kenton Schweppes, I was with you with that Bournemouth price but boy do we look like suckers now! Haha.

@Simeon Borisof, giving Palace fans a cold reality there with that graphic of their form in the last round. Hahaha. Any bets coming to mind this coming week?

@jamiedavies02, I liked the approach of a corners bet. Do you frequently venture into those sorts of fringe markets. Bookings and minutes goals will be scored in etc?

[andrewcalo]

I am looking at Chelsea draw or loss this week - haven't got Kante or Costa because of the cards mid-week.

Swansea are crap away from home and solid enough at the Liberty so nil-nil on this one lol.

[_Ghost_]

@StevieDay1983 I keep my eye on corner and card lines, the excellent Football-Data spreadhseets make it easy enough to manipulate the data and highlight any trends, I only tend to bet when I think the line is wrong rather the odds and there's usually only a handful of opportunities per week.

[StevieDay1983]

On 19/12/2016, 08:11:22, jamiedavies02 said:

@StevieDay1983 I keep my eye on corner and card lines, the excellent Football-Data spreadhseets make it easy enough to manipulate the data and highlight any trends, I only tend to bet when I think the line is wrong rather the odds and there's usually only a handful of opportunities per week.

Interesting approach that mate. I have a few mates that prefer the corner and card count markets. I've had reasonable success with the corners market. Have you found particular styles of play for teams make it more likely to be higher? For example, if a team plays a possession-based game like Manchester City then they will be less likely to win corners where as a team that is more attacking like Arsenal will be more likely to get corners?

[_Ghost_]

5 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Interesting approach that mate. I have a few mates that prefer the corner and card count markets. I've had reasonable success with the corners market. Have you found particular styles of play for teams make it more likely to be higher? For example, if a team plays a possession-based game like Manchester City then they will be less likely to win corners where as a team that is more attacking like Arsenal will be more likely to get corners?

I'm more concerned with raw statistics rather than teams style of play, generally speaking the better the side the more likely they are to do more attacking which in turn leads to more shots/ corners, cards on the other hand the worse the side the more time they will spend defending without the ball and likely to commit more fouls. There's always statistical anomalies and thats where the value usually lies - Everton at home for example, before last nights game there was only Arsenal and Man City averaging more corners for in their home matches (dropped below Spurs after last night), Arsenal and City home corner lines are typically 6.5/ 7.5, last nights Everton was 4.5, I though the line should have been 5.5 and backed accordingly, it turned out to be a losing bet but I had placed the same bet on the same line in their home matches v Man Utd and Arsenal recently (both winners).

 

[Pep004]

@StevieDay1983.. Hm, what to say about West Ham - Hull match. First, I am not used to see odds rising after I am publishing the bet (for example Lorient went from 2,33 to 2,15, Rennes from 1,98 to 1,75 or something like that. Here, odds were higher few minutes before the match, and we were able to see one of the craziest matches in this round. Hull hit the post for 3 times, but West Ham was the one who scored. All in all I am satisfied with analysed things, as they won more 2nd balls, actually they got penalty right after ball was bouncing around in the box of Hull. It's a good question if referee was right to whistle it, but it was fine for my prediction. Noble scored and West Ham won. Otherwise, they were much better in passing success ratio, but if I am honest, Hull deserved much more here, but mostly because of first half, in second, specially in last 30 minutes West Ham was better and they could also finish with 2-0.. But yes, everything could be different in first half and as I said, I have to learn a lot about this league..  

Edited December 20, 2016 by Pep004

[StevieDay1983]

On 20/12/2016, 18:22:08, Pep004 said:

@StevieDay1983.. Hm, what to say about West Ham - Hull match. First, I am not used to see odds rising after I am publishing the bet (for example Lorient went from 2,33 to 2,15, Rennes from 1,98 to 1,75 or something like that. Here, odds were higher few minutes before the match, and we were able to see one of the craziest matches in this round. Hull hit the post for 3 times, but West Ham was the one who scored. All in all I am satisfied with analysed things, as they won more 2nd balls, actually they got penalty right after ball was bouncing around in the box of Hull. It's a good question if referee was right to whistle it, but it was fine for my prediction. Noble scored and West Ham won. Otherwise, they were much better in passing success ratio, but if I am honest, Hull deserved much more here, but mostly because of first half, in second, specially in last 30 minutes West Ham was better and they could also finish with 2-0.. But yes, everything could be different in first half and as I said, I have to learn a lot about this league..  

Yes, there are certain elements of a game you cannot account for. What is your thinking on these games? I am always petrified of the Christmas schedule. So many additional factors to consider. It will be a bit easier this year with the games on a weekend but it can still see form take a bump. West Ham away to Swansea is one I am increasingly being drawn to. Manchester United flying under the radar too but their odds are too short. Might chuck them in as part of an accumulator or will bet on them to win to nil or with a handicap.

[andrewcalo]

"West Ham away to Swansea is one I am increasingly being drawn to."

Pray tell Steve which way are you leaning?

 

[Bobby Vegas]

Chelsea might be without Costa and Kante but they still have decent replacements who can come in and do a job against a Bournemouth team with only one win on the road this season.

Given Chelsea have kept 9 clean sheets in their run of 11 straight wins, I think the 2.43 that Unibet, 32Red and 888sport offer for Chelsea to win to nil are cracking odds.

[andrewcalo]

Anyone think Sunderland might upset United's Christmas plans?

Edited December 22, 2016 by andrewcalo

[Pep004]

@StevieDay1983I fancy Bournemouth, or.. I could say bet against Chelsea again. Kante and Costa are key figures in this system of Conte and if it's true that they won't play... But it's true that I was hoping for better odds. I think that Everton can even win against Leicester, AH +0,25 looks solid. And I think that Man City will win again, as they will have lots of time to prepare on match and I am sure that they will have millions of solutions how to break an opponent, but odds are just to short. 

[andrewcalo]

Huth, Fuchs and Vardy all not playing for Leicester.

[Mindfulness]

Pardew has been sacked, it's ashame, but Steve Parish will always do what he feels is best for the running of the club.

Hopefully our odds will drift out for the Watford game, let's see how the markets react.

[sajtion]

leicester is doggy team to say the least. it's hard to tell how their results are going to be. they haven't won many matches this season yet managed 2-2 draw with stoke with a red card.  they can score goals but without vardy suspended i'm leaning on everton getting victory. i consider chelsea the best team in the league and sunderland was very hard to breakdown. if they try the same at old trafford they can frustrate man utd and maybe claim a draw. i just don't fancy backing man utd on such short odds. swansea and west ham should both score goals but i don't think either is good enough defensively to hold out for victory.

[neilovan]

Here's some interesting stats for the Premier league. Home form 1st half

3 teams have not lost a home first half

Leicester W4 D4 L0 Goals For 7 Against 1

Burnley  W5 D4 L0 For 9 Against 2

Arsenal W3 D5 L0 For 10 Against 5

Only Man City have won more 1st half games than Burnley, but they have also lost 2 1st halves at home.

Burnley have 7 1st half clean sheets (they have played Everton, Liverpool, Bournemouth, Arsenal, Man CIty)

Burnley win HT/FT is priced at 5 and is my best bet of the EPL weekend.

[neilovan]

On 12/22/2016, 3:59:04, andrewcalo said:

Anyone think Sunderland might upset United's Christmas plans?

The only way Sunderland can play this game is tight, hoping to score from a break or a set piece. They just don't have the players to play an open game here. The concern for United is that they have not scored more than 1 goal in any of their last 5 home games

Both teams have heavy 1st half draw stats. United with 4 of their last 5 at home, while Sunderland have drawn 6 of their last 7 away. In Sunderland's last 7 away, they have also drawn 5 games 0-0. I think United will find a way to win, while SUnderland will probably not score.

The no to BTTS is 1.53

The HT draw Man United FT is 4

The Man United win to NIL is 1.73

 

 

 

 

[andrewcalo]

I think we have to see a couple of nil nils this week. My projections say three in the next twenty games, no less than two.

[Pep004]

Hull City - Manchester City

First Half Away -0.75 (AH) @ 2.170 3/10 PINNACLE

Football / Eng. Premier / Kick off: 26 Dec 2016, 18:15

 

Match between 3rd and 20th placed team in English Premier league will start on Monday at 18:15 on KCOM Stadium in Hull. Hull is the worst team of the league right now, but they're performances were not that bad lately. As already said, against West Ham they had great first half, but struggled in second and lost the game. They're still looking for right way to play. Atmosphere in Man City is much better after 2 wins in row, specially as they won big match with Arsenal in last weekend. Great news are that situation with missing players is getting better, even though, Kompany is still not fully fit, Gundogan is probably lost for the rest of the season and Agüero still needs to serve one match ban, Fernandinho is back and this defensive midfielder has key role in Guardiola's system here. There are some concerns over Zabaleta, but I think that he will be able to play. In my opinion we have decent odds here. I think that Manchester City is much stronger side, with capability to trash Hull City. With Fernandinho, they're defensive line will be stronger and more thrust worthy. Who will play in front is not even really important, while I am pretty sure that Hull will have big problems here if they will try to play in the way how they are playing. Many times they are trying to play wide, all over the pitch and if they will continue with this game style, Citizens will have solid chances in almost every attack. We all know that they have problems with conversion rate, but I believe that with good atmosphere they can expand they're win row to three matches. Hull is one of the teams, which is not specially strong in aerial duels, which means that in normal conditions they are not among teams crazily good with winning 2nd balls. As Gundogan said in one of interview, Guardiola has always many many solutions for how to break the opponent, and I believe that after 1 week of trainings, focused only on Hull, they will be well prepared and do big part of job already in first half as we were used to see doing it in start of the season.

[malabgd]

Leicester City v Everton FC

Leicester City: Christian Fuchs (17/1 d), Robert Huth (16/0 d), Jamie Vardy (17/5 f, top scorer)(all suspended), Daniel Drinkwater (12/0 m, doubtful)

Everton FC: Maarten Stekelenburg (16/0 first goalkeeper, doubtful), James McCarthy (7/0 m), Matthew Pennington (0/0 d), Yannick Bolasie (13/1 m), Arouna Kone (3/0 f), Muhamed Besic (0/0 d)

 

Manchester United v Sunderland

Manchester United: Luke Shaw (7/0 d), James Wilson (0/0 f)

Sunderland: Steven Pienaar (11/0 m), Javi Manquillo (9/0 d), Billy Jones (9/0 d)(all doubtful), Adnan Januzaj (11/0 m, on loan from Manchester United), Jan Kirchhoff (7/0 d), Duncan Watmore (14/0 m), Lynden Gooch (9/0 m), Paddy McNair (9/0 m), Jack Rodwell (8/0 m), Lee Cattermole (2/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[mrclubbie]

Any ideas for Watford vs Palace ?

Pardew has been sacked, can Big Sam produce magic in his 1st match ?

Hmm...The last 5 clubs he managed (Sunderland, West Ham, Blackburn, Newcastle, Bolton) he only won his opening matches on 2 occasions. Make it 3 if you count the one and only England match he led...

Took a look at his H2H stats against Watford - 5W 2D 2L against Watford (with Bolton, West Ham, Sunderland)

Edited December 26, 2016 by mrclubbie

[betcatalog]

I expect an open game with many goals, which can score both teams, who have very good offensive lines, will propose the goal goal
HULL CITY vs MANCHESTER CITY @@ Both team to score, odds 1.91

Chelsea struggling with broken brakes, having defense of granite, Bournemouth is a modest team, without many aspirations, I expect Chelsea to get another win, but will be back in a few goals
CHELSEA FC vs AFC BOURNEMOUTH @@ +3.00 under, odds 1.76

Leicester pulled soul and quality in the previous match, in strong home can exploit the weaknesses of Everton and get a positive result
LEICESTER CITY vs EVERTON FC @@ +0 LEICESTER CITY, odds 1.82

[Magic0024]

Here's some interesting statistical facts about today games:

Arsenal have conceded in 100% of their last 12 matches.

West Bromwich Albion have scored in 78% of their away matches this season.

Leicester have lost 0% of their last six meetings with Everton.

You can see the other facts regarding today games here ....

Football Facts on Euro Football Rumours

[andrewcalo]

Telling you lads - get on the draws this weekend - Bournemouth Chelsea, Arsenal West Brom, Leicester Everton

6 this weekend, first about to come in...

[Pep004]

I agree with Chelsea - Bournemouth.. also goal of Bornemouth looks solid. Everyone expecting another clean sheet of Chelsea but I think that they will need to score if they won't want to lose the game. Kante is too much important in they're defence. 

[andrewcalo]

hmmh...

 

[betcatalog]

Liverpool is excellent, especially at Anfield, scoring with ease and will pursue to the end the championship and the exit to the next Champions League, the Stoke is a modest club and I do not believe that it can oppose the straight

LIVERPOOL FC vs STOKE CITY @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.53

[andrewcalo]

I hope none of you took my shit advice lol

[PhilRudd]

For tonight: Southampton - Tottenham draw, odds 3.25 

Betegy says Southampton, but I think it's unlikely. football-mining says draw and I agree.

Neither team in a great form, I think they would both be satisfied with a draw. Worth the risk. 

 

[DJ]

I think Tottenham's recent away from looks worse than it is.  The last three away games have seen Spurs pick up a miserly 1 point.  The point was picked up at Arsenal, in a game in which Tottenham played well with a new look back 5 defensive formation, and scoring the own goal for Arsenal.  The other two away games came at Stamford Bridge (Chelsea are beating everyone at the moment), and against a rejuvenated Manchester United team, who look to be playing at a level that we had previously been more accustomed to seeing them.  Although, it can be seen that Spurs away form has been poor previous to this, with no away wins in the last 5 Premier League games.  So, perhaps worth staying away for a win on that basis.

The away games, and lack of goals scored away; only 2 goals in those three games, one of which was a penalty, suggest that Tottenham's greatest difficulty comes in scoring goals away from home.  Again. perhaps this could be seen as a consequence of the quality of opposition faced.  Tottenham have been strong away from home defensively, conceding 4 goals in those three games, against sides who are more of a threat on their home pitch than Southampton.  The 4 goals including the own goal which has been detailed above. 

I can see a fairly low scoring event here.  Southampton rely on Austin for their goals.  The last four of Southampton's home PL games have gone under 2.5 goals. For this reason, I think that the game is likely to be an under 2.5 goals encounter and will take the odds of 1.7 with Bet365 that the game ends as such.