Weekend > Dec 17th - 19th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

We have barely had time to recover from the midweek action and the next weekend of chaos is upon us!

Manchester City versus Arsenal is the stand-out fixture of this weekend's fixtures but there is a lot to think about in the other games with a fair few tough calls.

@WinningAdvice, you got sucker punched with that Everton versus Arsenal result. Never back Arsenal away from home! Haha.

@andrewcalo, interesting views on Leicester in midweek? What do you think of their chances ahead of this next game? Good call on the expectancy of a 0-0 too.

@Pep004, expecting your usual logical breakdown of things here. Anything sticking out for you?

@betcatalog, that Bournemouth 1-0 win against Leicester stumped your bet too. Bouncing back this weekend?

@johnabpd, another person ruined by Bournemouth's win. What do you fancy this week? Backing Leicester again or staying clear?

@mrclubbie, you gave us some stats last week but what are you tipping this weekend?

@immortal--, @Mindfulness, @neilovan, and @vasilli07, do you guys have any bets lined up?

Only a couple of days to get our thoughts together after the midweek games! Don't panic!

[WinningAdvice]

@StevieDay1983 Still moaning about it. To think that they haven't won in Goodison Park in a while. I don't know what came to me.

Edited December 15, 2016 by WinningAdvice

[andrewcalo]

Leicester win I reckon. Stoke did not impress me last night.

[vasilli07]

Leicester away? Just back the home team. They are heading for relegation dogfight and 1 tactical win over Man City won't change a thing.

[Pep004]

Lucky tactical win. Didn't watch Stoke for a while, but it could be burlesque of football.  

I was thinking about West Ham +2 in last round, but I think that my knowledge about PL teams is not good enough to make strong calls. Maybe I will start with low units this week, as I really like West Ham -0,75 and Crystal Palace +1. Any thoughts about it? I am even thinking about straight win of CP.

[immortal--]

I was chasing Leicester win vs Bournemouth but without success, will not bet on them anymore in this form...

[Mindfulness]

36 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

Lucky tactical win. Didn't watch Stoke for a while, but it could be burlesque of football.  

I was thinking about West Ham +2 in last round, but I think that my knowledge about PL teams is not good enough to make strong calls. Maybe I will start with low units this week, as I really like West Ham -0,75 and Crystal Palace +1. Any thoughts about it? I am even thinking about straight win of CP.

Palace +1 AH seems to be in the right ball park as prices go, it doesn't look to be massive value from technical perspective, ELO ratings appear to confirm this. Don't get me wrong, it's definately one of those games that could end Chelsea's winning run, I personally would wait to see if Hazard makes the starting lineup for Chelsea and then look at Palace odds. Jason Puncheon should be back for Palace which is a boost as he is a key figure.

WBA +2 AH at Stamford Bridge was massive value last weekend but game dynamics will be different at Selhurst as Palace will probably attack more and clearly their defence is not so great atm which could play into Chelsea's hands with their strong countering ability.

Palace +1 AH is on my shortlist for this weekend but I would personally prefer to see the lineups before deciding.

[Sir Puntalot]

Sunderland Draw No Bet @ 1.83 BetVictor

[Pep004]

West Ham United - Hull City

Full Event Home -0.75 (AH) @ 1.847 4/10 PINNACLE

Football / Eng. Premier / Kick off: 17 Dec 2016, 16:00

 

Match between 15th and 19th placed team in English Premier league will be played on Saturday at 16:00 on London Stadium. West Ham is coming to match after beating Burnley at home. After catastrophic result against Arsenal (1-5), they played much better against Liverpool (2-2), and in last match they finally took all 3 points. One of they're biggest treat in last season were crosses, specially from Cresswell to Carrol, but Andy played only on 4 matches this season and I expect better performances of West Ham with him back in squad. Hull won they're first away match this season against Swansea, after that they took point in Burnley, and those 3 points were everything what they reached in 8 away matches. Bournemouth killed them with 6 goals, Sunderland with 3, and the main problem is that they can not find themselves. They're performances are just poor. They are trying to somehow play wide with 3-5-1-1 formation, but they are letting every single team to create many chances and as it looks it will be really hard to avoid relegation for them. I learned that 2nd ball are really important in English football. Looking at those two teams, West Ham is the team who will have advantage here. They are better in aerial duels, and I believe that with Andy in squad, they're percentage of winning aerial duels will be even bigger. Even if winning 2nd balls is not all about winning aerial duels, there is another thing which I would like to point out. Set pieces. Another element of football, really popular and important in England, and also here with Payet in team there is no doubt who will be in advantage. Besides, Hull is one of the teams, making lots of fouls in dangerous areas, which means that they are too late at closing down and all of that are just problems for away team. It's true that West Ham is not playing fabulous, but in my opinion 15th place is not reality for them.

[sajtion]

stoke don't impress me in anyway at all. it's true they are physical and dogmatic but beside that their isn't anything else to their game that would cause envy. i think leicester can turn them over. they are more creative and have the mahrez and vady who are bit too cunning for the one dimensional stoke side

i can't make a case for sunderland. they are really lacking strength in the squad. i think watford can beat sunderland because they were excellent against everton a week ago. if they repeat same performance they should bag easily three points.

Edited December 16, 2016 by sajtion

[andrewcalo]

On the other hand ... it takes some balls to stop Southampton scoring when you're down to ten men for three quarters if a match ... Stoke remind me of West Brom, they're a prison style team - the type of team that can overpower a weak willed side or an opposition team playing shit that day ... they look for weakness and pounce...

[vasilli07]

If Stoke doesn't impress you, then I'm not too sure what Leicester has done this season to impress you.

The only 2 things that work against Stoke is that they played a day later than Leicester and the loss of Arnie. If anyone has watch Leicester play, their style of play is always the same. 4-4-2, Drinkwater long ball to Vardy and hope for the best or pass to ballhog Mahrez who thinks he is Messi and will take his own sweet time to play the ball. As long as Stoke doesn't use a high defensive line like Man City, Shawcross will gobble up all Drinkwater long passes.

 

[mrclubbie]

May be another good opportunity for West Ham to capture a win against Hull. The latter's away form is beyond cure from the looks of it.

[andrewcalo]

Leicester beat Man City the other day and won their Champions League group with a game to spare, lol they're not too bad...

[mrclubbie]

Taking a look at Tony Pulis all-time records against Man Utd:

With Stoke City - P10 W0 D1 L9, 5 scored 25 conceded

With Crystal Palace - P1 W0 D0 L1, 0 scored 2 conceded

With West Brom - P1 W1 D0 L0, 1 scored 0 conceded

Interesting to note that WBA had a very poor H2H against Man Utd when Alex Ferguson was in charge. Both sides met 6 times since AF retired and WBA won 3, draw 2 and lost only once, as compared with 12 losses and 3 draws when Man Utd was under AF

[StevieDay1983]

2 hours ago, vasilli07 said:

If Stoke doesn't impress you, then I'm not too sure what Leicester has done this season to impress you.

The only 2 things that work against Stoke is that they played a day later than Leicester and the loss of Arnie. If anyone has watch Leicester play, their style of play is always the same. 4-4-2, Drinkwater long ball to Vardy and hope for the best or pass to ballhog Mahrez who thinks he is Messi and will take his own sweet time to play the ball. As long as Stoke doesn't use a high defensive line like Man City, Shawcross will gobble up all Drinkwater long passes.

 

I see your thinking @vasilli07. I'm with @andrewcalo though. I still have doubts over Stoke across the whole season. They seem to struggle with consistency. The Stoke defence is susceptible to being opened up by pace. If you look at Stoke's 5 wins this season they have mainly come against struggling sides. Swansea, Hull, Sunderland, and Burnley plus then Watford. Are Leicester as poor as those sides? I'm not sure. I can see Leicester getting at least a draw.

[andrewcalo]

There are a lot of unpredictable games this week. I think a good few will be draws, and I think a couple or more 0-0, just from general fatigue and also teams shoring up their standing in the table before Christmas.

Also Swansea are 4 to 1 to win away at Middlesbrough. That's great value. They knocked me sideways with their wins against Palace and Sunderland, and I can't see the bookies being able to predict them at the moment any more than us punters, so there's a fair chance of a win there.

Bradley is out of his depth as a manager but you get the sense there's a philosophy there and he's learning as he goes. Depending on how Middlesbrough play this could well be a game won by a good goal margin so consider the handicaps too.

We played well against West Brom and Tottenham until they started scoring lol. The team do have some confidence.

Edited December 17, 2016 by andrewcalo

[malabgd]

Stoke City v Leicester City

Stoke City: Marko Arnautovic (15/1 f, suspended), Phillip Bardsley (9/0 d), Geoff Cameron (7/0 d), Jack Butland (0/0 g), Stephen Ireland (0/0 m), Ibrahim Afellay (0/0 m)

Leicester City: Daniel Drinkwater (12/0 m, doubtful)

 

Sunderland v Watford FC

Sunderland: Steven Pienaar (11/0 m), Victor Anichebe (7/3 f), Javi Manquillo (9/0 d)(all doubtful), Billy Jones (9/0 d), Jan Kirchhoff (7/0 d), Duncan Watmore (14/0 m), Lynden Gooch (9/0 m), Paddy McNair (9/0 m), Jack Rodwell (8/0 m), Lee Cattermole (2/0 m)

Watford FC: Stefano Okaka (5/2 f), Roberto Pereyra (13/2 f), Adrian Mariappa (0/0 d), Brice Dja Djédjé (0/0 d), Kenedy (1/0 m), Craig Cathcart (5/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[betcatalog]

My today tips is 

Can Crystal Palace stop the Chelsea? rather not be in tremendous form and effective making consecutive victories, the defense of fielding is leaky and do not believe it can keep Chelsea would suggest the WIN
CRYSTAL PALACE vs CHELSEA FC @@ WIN CHELSEA, odds 1,61

Good luck to all

[Pep004]

More and more, I have feeling that Crystal Palace can stop them. I was pretty close to publish analysis and pick for Crystal Palace AH +1, who I think is little bit underrated in this match, but I decided to skip it this time. Still need to learn a lot about PL, so I won't take risk here. I also really like the odds above 6,50 on Crystal Palace. Somewhere even 7! Too much IMO!

Edited December 17, 2016 by Pep004

[Simeon Borisof]

5 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

More and more, I have feeling that Crystal Palace can stop them. I was pretty close to publish analysis and pick for Crystal Palace AH +1, who I think is little bit underrated in this match, but I decided to skip it this time. Still need to learn a lot about PL, so I won't take risk here. I also really like the odds above 6,50 on Crystal Palace. Somewhere even 7! Too much IMO!

Do you really?Ok.so this picture might help you

[andrewcalo]

Lol - right? Chelsea to hammer Palace, no offence like.

FYI: Tottenham to win and total of under 4.5 goals against Burnley is 1.6! LUMP ON.

 

[andrewcalo]

Chelsea to win the league this season, doing what Leicester did last season, and with Kante too lol cheeky bastards.

IN OTHER NEWS - Bournemouth to disrupt Chelsea's streak next week, Costa and Kante both won't be playing through Yellow cards today, so probably means a Bournemouth win tomorrow too...

 

 

 

[Pep004]

Well.. +1 would be voided, and I can not see why it would be a bad call. Puncheon had 2 great opportunities in 1st half and if they would score first, things could be totally different. I think that my thoughts were not that wrong as you guys reacted but well. Everyone see it from different angle. That's why football is that interesting.

[Mindfulness]

7 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

Well.. +1 would be voided, and I can not see why it would be a bad call. Puncheon had 2 great opportunities in 1st half and if they would score first, things could be totally different. I think that my thoughts were not that wrong as you guys reacted but well. Everyone see it from different angle. That's why football is that interesting.

I think you're on the right track Pep, I don't see anything wrong with some of the AH lines you've been suggesting recently. Personally I felt the markets had Palace V Chelsea game priced fairly well and so it turned out to be. Chelsea @ 1.61 had no value in my view, make that play 1000 times and break even would be about the best you could hope for. Palace +1 wasn't really +ev either so you made exactly the right choice by sitting that one out imo.

Anyway, keep going in EPL, don't get discouraged by detractors, congrats on registering some profit in West Ham game.

[andrewcalo]

Where are you from mate?

[Pep004]

Thanks @Mindfulness

As @andrewcalo published article on last time, I'll publish one interesting interview between mister and Thierry. I believe that it will be interesting for some of you guys. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eajVUNs_Wo

Edited December 17, 2016 by Pep004

[_Ghost_]

One for tomorrow, Everton to take 5 or more corners @ 4/5 with Skybet, this bet has weighed in all 8 of their home league matches this season with 6 or more landing in 88%, they're averageing 7.75 corners for in home matches.

[Kenton Schweppes]

Sky Bet have Bournemouth at 23/10  for some mad reason at home against Southampton who are absolutely rubbish away from home, one win in the league away from hoem all season and one in the League Cup. Bournemouth's only recent home defeat was against Sunderland, bizarre I know, but Bournmeouth are a good side and I'm amazed that they are so highly priced here. I will take them in a treble with Tottenham and QPR.