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Weekend > Dec 10th & 11th


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FA Trophy weekend! Plus, a couple of Conference South fixtures. @addpea, what is taking your fancy in this competition? A fair few teams a lot of people will not be familiar with. For example, Hythe Town, Witton Albion, and Shaw Lane... the last one sounds like an ITV4 drama series.

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Alfreton v North Ferriby

The big problem for North Ferriby this season has been scoring and although Alfreton have really struggled defensively having conceded a massive 52 in the National League North this season, I just wonder if North Ferriby are going to have the capability of taking full advantage. Granted this defence will be easier than the ones they face week in week out, but they have missed some great chances this season. With that in mind I think it is worth chancing the home side at Marathon's 21/10 because even if North Ferriby do manage to find the net the home side can score goals. They have managed to find the net 41 times in the league and with that in mind I think they have a great chance of outscoring North Ferriby.

 

Forest Green v Truro

I love taking on the leading National League sides in the  FA Trophy as it has landed some big odds over the years. Most top National League sides want out of the competition as their focus is on promotion to the Football League so they often rest players. Mark Cooper hasn't really said what sort of team he is going to put out here, but what I found interesting was that they played a friendly against Evesham on Tuesday where they put out a full strength side. Now I could be wrong, but I get the feeling he did that because he wanted to keep his 1st team ticking over in a meaningless game ahead of their next league match and instead play a weakened side in this game. Truro had hit a bit of form, but were beaten by bottom side Bishops Stortford last week which was a poor effort. If they bring their best to Gloucestershire though I think that will give them a real chance of beating Forest Green especially if they do indeed play the reserves. At 9/1 with Betfair they are worth a punt

 

Harlow v Eastleigh

One manager who has confirmed he is playing the reserves on Saturday is Martin Allen. When he was at Barnet he did exactly the same so it is no surprise to see him do it again. Even so given Harlow are a pretty average Ryman Premier side I still wasn't sure the price was value, but at Marathon's 69/20 I do think it is worth a chance. Allen will no doubt be resting his players with a view to Tuesday's FA Cup replay. To be fair to Harlow they are in good form and have won 7 of their 9 league games at home so they clearly play well their and they should be in with a real chance of causing an upset.

 

York v Worcester

Fair play to York they nearly managed to get a great point at Tranmere last Saturday, but they couldn't quite see it out and conceded an injury time winner. They have strengthened a little and Gary Mills will be doing all he can to get them the right side of the relegation line. I am not sure he will really want the distraction of the FA Trophy and the other thing to bare in mind is that it is all very well putting on a performance at the biggest club in the division, but can they repeat that against a National League North side? It always worries me when a club go so long without winning and although Worcester have been inconsistent this term they have at least been winning football matches recently and they performed with credit when losing 2-1 to Fylde last weekend. I am sure Worcester will fancy their chances of causing and upset and Marathon's 47/10 is well worth taking.

 

Ashton v Stourbridge

I am struggling to work out why Stourbridge are such a big price to gain the three points here. I can only imagine it is because they have their FA Cup game on Tuesday with Northampton, but their FA Cup run hasn't stopped their league form so far. Indeed if anything it has improved it as they have won 4 of their last 5 league games and the other one was a good draw against Spennymoor. Granted they have only beaten Corby in their last 6 away matches, but they have only lost once as well and Ashton's home form isn't as good as their away form has they lost 5 at home compared to 2 away. Ashton are towards the wrong end of the form table as well having picked up just 7 points in their last 6 and conceding 15 in the process. Stourbridge are also ahead of Ashton on goal difference and they have played 4 games less so the 14/5 BetVictor go about an away looks rather big and I make them the Nap's of the weekend.

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Good call on Alfreton, Harlow and Stourbridge Addpea mate. Think you'd have been better tipping up Truro as double chance as at 9/1 they must have been about 3/1 for the double chance bet.

Anyway, your tipping and knowledge of the non league scene continues to deliver winners at good prices, fair play mate. :notworthy

Looking forward to your midweek tips.

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From my point of view I would rather go for the outright win at the much bigger price. I would say in the long run you would make more money by doing that than backing the double chance bet every time. So last week I had Barrow win for me at 15/2 and this week Truro only drew, but I have still won more than if I had done both double chance. I can understand people want to be more cautious, but if I think a team can win and they are value then I am going to back them to win.

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5 hours ago, addpea said:

From my point of view I would rather go for the outright win at the much bigger price. I would say in the long run you would make more money by doing that than backing the double chance bet every time. So last week I had Barrow win for me at 15/2 and this week Truro only drew, but I have still won more than if I had done both double chance. I can understand people want to be more cautious, but if I think a team can win and they are value then I am going to back them to win.

Not a criticism mate, just think with them being so highly priced the double chance bet must have been a worthwhile price, at least you get two bites of the cherry, although at reduced odds.

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1 hour ago, Kenton Schweppes said:

Not a criticism mate, just think with them being so highly priced the double chance bet must have been a worthwhile price, at least you get two bites of the cherry, although at reduced odds.

I didn't take it as a criticism at all, I was just stating why I wouldn't chose to do the double chance bet. I just think most of the time you would be better of going for the outright win rather than the lesser odds.

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