EFL Trophy > Dec 5th - 7th

[StevieDay1983]

Some EFL Trophy action in midweek if you fancy something away from the Champions League and Europa League. It's hard to believe we are only just entering the second half of these group games. Bit of a farce competition if you ask me.

Anyway, only Carlisle, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Coventry, Norwich U-23, and Millwall maintain a 100% record. It's a lottery for betting. Any of you lot brave enough to have a go? @skyblues88, you backing your boys to make it four wins out of four against Crawley at home?

[skyblues88]

5 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Anyway, only Carlisle, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Coventry, Norwich U-23, and Millwall maintain a 100% record. It's a lottery for betting. Any of you lot brave enough to have a go? @skyblues88, you backing your boys to make it four wins out of four against Crawley at home?

 

No, i wont be doing match betting on this competition. May'be a couple of Both Teams to Score bets. This is the start of the knockout rounds now. 

Based on what i've witnessed today I wouldn't advise people to bet on us. But knowing us we'll win, actually playing well and scoring goals in this meaningless competition!  I would imagine the attendance will be very low again, like at all of the grounds in this competition. 

 

[StevieDay1983]

16 minutes ago, skyblues88 said:

 

No, i wont be doing match betting on this competition. May'be a couple of Both Teams to Score bets. This is the start of the knockout rounds now. 

Based on what i've witnessed today I wouldn't advise people to bet on us. But knowing us we'll win, actually playing well and scoring goals in this meaningless competition!  I would imagine the attendance will be very low again, like at all of the grounds in this competition. 

 

My mistake. Group stages seemed to be going on forever so assumed it was six matches with teams playing each other home and away. This is why I am steering clear of this competition! Haven't got a bloody clue!

[skyblues88]

2 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

My mistake. Group stages seemed to be going on forever so assumed it was six matches with teams playing each other home and away. This is why I am steering clear of this competition! Haven't got a bloody clue!

It is a bit of a farce competition though!  I'll deffo be steering clear of this as well. Alot of teams will rotate with more important league fixtures coming up at the weekend. 

[StevieDay1983]

1 minute ago, skyblues88 said:

It is a bit of a farce competition though!  I'll deffo be steering clear of this as well. Alot of teams will rotate with more important league fixtures coming up at the weekend. 

My mate noted a potential flaw in the competition. If Wolves get relegated this season then they will be eligible to compete plus will have an academy side also eligible. Imagine if they played each other?!

[allthethings]

I keep saying this every other day, but the former Johnstone's Paint Pot trophy is one of the best competitions to bet on because it's a complete free-for-all. You never have any idea who's going to play, but the matches are priced up purely on who's in what league.

The twist in the KO this year is that we have group play results to skew people's expectations. In the past the round of 32 (its place was taken by the group matches) and the round of 16 were fabulous for outright wins by dogs. I'll be looking to see what the odds do on Morecambe. Scunthorpe should crush them, but they've got a long history of winning away as big dogs. But I think any of the away dogs up to around 6.00 will be worth backing.

[StevieDay1983]

7 hours ago, allthethings said:

I keep saying this every other day, but the former Johnstone's Paint Pot trophy is one of the best competitions to bet on because it's a complete free-for-all. You never have any idea who's going to play, but the matches are priced up purely on who's in what league.

The twist in the KO this year is that we have group play results to skew people's expectations. In the past the round of 32 (its place was taken by the group matches) and the round of 16 were fabulous for outright wins by dogs. I'll be looking to see what the odds do on Morecambe. Scunthorpe should crush them, but they've got a long history of winning away as big dogs. But I think any of the away dogs up to around 6.00 will be worth backing.

See, I have the glass half empty view that because it's so erratic it's impossible to have any idea about what to back! Haha.

[allthethings]

Just remember that if you're getting odds of 4.00 you only need to win 25 percent to break even. I won 14 of 48 in group play playing big dogs.

Edited December 6, 2016 by allthethings

[allthethings]

After-posting, sorry about that, but that was +11 units, so you'll see what I mean. The last 30 minutes before kickoff was a little crazy, as my book stopped accepting wagers on Swans, so I wasn't able to bet more at the higher odds (won less than I might have), the odds on Brighton tumbled so it was no longer a play (would have won, but I didn't play it)...the odds on Mansfield tumbled as well so that one was no longer a play, but I'd already played it (won). I ended up with Swans and Morecambe as smaller plays.

this is a primary drawback of trying to bet on closing odds. I haven't studied this fully, because I don't have a database of odds movement that's easy to manipulate, but I've seen some evidence that in some leagues and cups, it might pay to just bet whenever there's a large dog, even if it turns out that side doesn't stay a big dog.

Clip and save: the next round has not been particularly good for upsets since I started keeping track 11 years ago. It's probably that the better sides can smell Wembley and start taking it more seriously. However, the semifinals and finals have actually been good for dogs too.

[allthethings]

15 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

See, I have the glass half empty view that because it's so erratic it's impossible to have any idea about what to back! Haha.

Been thinking on this. It's not a glass half empty view. It's more a judgment that you don't know how you can possibly back a favorite, given that neither team is playing most of its regulars (meaning, the people who have created the team's record on the field, which is what we all use as the basis of our bets). And you're right. You think: This is a crapshoot. And I agree. If you thought the odds might be 40-60, say, that Chesterfield would win at Rochdale, there's no way you would back Rochdale at 1.52.

I've found that these games are crapshoots by looking at years of results. I think, if the odds might be 40-60 that Chesterfield could win at Rochdale, I'll gladly take the 5.41 to find out. If there were four of these games where a League Two or low League One side was traveling to face a top League One side that was heavily favored, how many would have to win to show profit? The answer is one. Today there were two of four, and that doesn't include winners Mansfield (odds drop from 4.5 to 3.13) or Brighton U23 (odds drop from 4.1 to 3.08).

For tomorrow, Cambridge, Crawley and Wycombe currently have odds of 4.78 to 5.42, away to Bradford, Coventry and Millwall. The only thing that might make me hesitate before backing them all is the fact that today the dogs went 2-2-0.