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StevieDay1983

Weekend > Dec 2nd - 4th

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Well, the midweek fixtures threw some spanners in the work. Only one game where both teams scored, Monaco dropping points against Dijon, and Lyon winning 6-0 away from home. Congratulations if you had over 5.5 goals to be scored in that one!

What are we thinking for this week gents? Good to see Nice grind out the win at Guingamp during the week.

@Pep004, @FCNA, @immortal--, @hairline, and @sajtion. Keen to hear your views.

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Nice - Toulouse

Full Event Home -0.50 (AH) @ 2,14 6/10 SBO

Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 04 Dec 2016, 20:45

 

Nice is coming to match after important win against Guingamp. We could say that in match of two biggest surprises this season, the 1st one won and climb back on first place. Monaco failed in Dijon, so Nice is 3 points in front of them, but PSG is following with 1 point less then Nice, and if they want to stay on first place before going on Parc des Princes in next round, then they need to win against Toulouse. There is no differences in squad as Balo and Baysee remain the only missing, but as we know Favre, we can expect some rotations. Nice is on 1st place for 10 rounds now, all in all with 11 wins in 15 rounds, and that just proves they're quality. Toulouse is coming to match after win against Montpellier at home, but they were far from spectacular. Montpellier had some great great chances, also the "empty netter chance" for Mounié, but they missed everything. Even Boudebouz missed goal from 10-11 meters and in last minutes Mounié had another great chance after mistake of Toulouse's defence, but Lafont saved them again. It was quite strange match, but Toulouse managed to score in 18th minute, from the action from set-piece - it was a through ball from Bodiger to Braithwaite who's shot was saved by Lafont, but bounced ball came directly on chest of Sylla who scored and that was the only goal on the match. After that goal they were mainly defending themselves and luckily succeeded. For the match against Nice they will be without suspended defender Jullien and midfielder Doumbia. Trejo and Ninkov are out already because of injuries, while also Michelin and Moubandje, both full backs are on injury list now after picking up knocks in last match. Diop and Blin should return to the squad, but even them are not 100% fit. In my opinion bookmakers are still underestimating Nice. It's true that they play draw against Bastia on last time, but not that they were better and that they should win, they were much much better, and they should win with 2-3 goals difference at least! Plea missed 1on1 chance again, this time against Guingamp and for goods of Nice, he needs to come back to form, because next match against PSG will be very very important. Balotelli is working hard to come back till derby, but they will need Plea in form as well if they want to beat Parisians. Against Toulouse I expect nothing else then possession and control in hands of Nice, they will create much more chances then Toulouse, who's in big problems with little injuries. It's a 3rd match in 7 days, and busy schedule affected them. On next match they will play against Lorient against who they should win.

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Angers - Lorient

Full Event Away +0.50 (AH) @ 1.900 5/10 PINNACLE

Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 03 Dec 2016, 20:00

 

Match between 10th and 20th placed team in French Ligue 1 will be played on Saturday at 20:00 on Stade Jean-Bouin in Angers. Angers is coming to match after being defeated in Paris, what is not big surprise. For me, it was not even surprise to see lost in Angers against St. Etienne, specially because they had few problems with suspensions and injuries. Anyway, they are still without Ketkeophomphone, and his offensive abilities are missing in this team. Some players will probably come back to team, also formation will be settled back on 4 defenders instead of 5, and Andreu should return on left back position. Lorient doesn't play that bad. I am saying that for a while, and I was on they're side against Rennes in last round, and they surprised them and won the derby. Angers is another team not far away, and I believe that they can get at least a point there. As I said in last analysis, with Moukandjo back, they're attack looks much better and whole team plays better. Waris scored 2 goals in last two matches, while Moukandjo is already at 6 goals and 1 assist. In my opinion, Lorient will be the team who will try to be in possession, and at least being at the same number of chances then Angers. They will try to win some set pieces, but otherwise they're play is nothing spectacular. I trust much more to Lorient and in my eyes this match is totally in edge. Home pitch is the only advantage of Angers. Difference between teams is 7 points and I even think that till end of the season Lorient will be in front of Angers.

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47 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

I'd be careful with Monaco handicaps this weekend as Bastia are a tight unit and don't lose matches by more than the odd goal and they got a draw in Nice.

Did you watch any of those matches? Against Bordeaux they played somehow good, and even there Menez was 1on1 with goalkeeper at the end of the match. Against Nice, they're performance was almost catastrophic and I they were really really lucky that final result was 1-1. Plea missed 1on1 chance  in first half (it would be 2-0), and in second he already dribble the goalkeeper and then hit the crossbar on empty goal!!! Nice had also other chances and this 1-1 is really far from reality. Same thing with Lyon. They were with 2 red cards already, result was 2-0, and Lyon was creating chance after chance. They could score almost in every attack they had but then in 93th minute, ball was somehow bouncing after shot, and really luckily ended on foot of Crivelli who scored for 2-1. 

I agree that there is no value on Monaco, and that odds are too low, but I wouldn't be too much proud on those result of Bastia against Lyon and Nice. Specially against Lyon it should be 5-0. They can not be that lucky in several matches. :)

 

Good luck!

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2 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

Did you watch any of those matches? Against Bordeaux they played somehow good, and even there Menez was 1on1 with goalkeeper at the end of the match. Against Nice, they're performance was almost catastrophic and I they were really really lucky that final result was 1-1. Plea missed 1on1 chance  in first half (it would be 2-0), and in second he already dribble the goalkeeper and then hit the crossbar on empty goal!!! Nice had also other chances and this 1-1 is really far from reality. Same thing with Lyon. They were with 2 red cards already, result was 2-0, and Lyon was creating chance after chance. They could score almost in every attack they had but then in 93th minute, ball was somehow bouncing after shot, and really luckily ended on foot of Crivelli who scored for 2-1. 

I agree that there is no value on Monaco, and that odds are too low, but I wouldn't be too much proud on those result of Bastia against Lyon and Nice. Specially against Lyon it should be 5-0. They can not be that lucky in several matches. :)

 

Good luck!

Appreciate your viewpoint, but this is why I created the ratings a long time ago, to take emotion out of it. Could have and should have, doesn't count for anything in life - only facts and stats matter and until they change, they have to be respected. I'm not saying Monaco won't tonk them 5-0, I'm just saying while I was on Monaco -1 against Marseille, I wouldn't be as confident in this match. Stats don't lie at the end of the day. ;) 

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I didn't want to say something against or anything, really totally without offense. I thought that maybe you didn't watch matches, but we were anyway both on "there is no value" opinion. 

But yes, that's the difference with me and probably many tipsters. I am analysing match from other point of view. For me, stats are far from what matter. That's also why is important for me to do a post match analysis. If they played close matches because they were lucky, that doesn't mean the same for me, like if they would play close matches, because they played good, and they were almost in the edge. But yes, every tipster has it's own tactics. :) 

Edited by Pep004

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2 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

I didn't want to say something against or anything, really totally without offense. I thought that maybe you didn't watch matches, but we were anyway both on "there is no value" opinion. 

But yes, that's the difference with me and probably many tipsters. I am analysing match from other point of view. For me, stats are far from what matter. That's also why is important for me to do a post match analysis. If they played close matches because they were lucky, that doesn't mean the same for me, like if they would play close matches, because they played good, and they were almost in the edge. But yes, every tipster has it's own tactics. :) 

Everyone is different, but all can be correct in their own way. :ok 

Take a look here too https://www.punterslounge.com/football/ratings/france-ligue-1/performance - These are ratings based on match performance, which are very eye opening sometimes. The prediction ratings are based off those. :ok 

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17 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Everyone is different, but all can be correct in their own way. :ok 

Take a look here too https://www.punterslounge.com/football/ratings/france-ligue-1/performance - These are ratings based on match performance, which are very eye opening sometimes. The prediction ratings are based off those. :ok 

Are your weekend picks for all the leagues all up?

Edited by vasilli07

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guingamp are pretty decent team at their own ground and only lost 1 out of 7 there. they have scored in 6 out of 7 previous matches as well so should find goal against this nantes team who i think don't have attacking quality at all. the most nantes in my eyes could do is frustrating draw which is typical of them but guingamp should overcome them.

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I bet the game between Nice and Toulouse will not be an easy one, for home team, cuz they are pressured...In their last home match after a poor draw... But anyway both are powerful, at least I think so. Probably to bet on score bet :)

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Pressured from one side, but having chance to go on +4 in front of derby against PSG on on the other side. I think that motivation could be big factor here. They will be better side for sure, question is just conversion rate. Toulouse didn't deserve win against Montpellier in last round.

@FCNA any thoughts about the new coach in our city? :)

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i've been waiting for st etienne to slip up and i think today is it. they draw more games than they win and their playing style is very rigid. they've played quite a few games in past ten days so today's trip away to rennes i will be backing them to concede at last two goals.

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Besides.. Goalkeeper Ruffier was they're best man in last some matches. I am thinking also about Rennes win with clean sheet. But probably I will skip it as I didn't have time to analyse it.. but anyway I somehow agree with bet on Rennes here.

Good luck!

Edited by Pep004

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