November 7 - November 13

[ogii55]

Safwat - Pavlashek 3.84 Pinnacle

Safwat is a typical hard court player, who is serving solidly. He started very well against Ilhan beating him in two tiebreaks and showing better tennis than two weeks ago, when he was beat very easy by Ilhan. Pavlasek made his rankings with his clay results. He managed to beat out of form Martin in the previous round. Pavlashek is favorite here, because of the opponents he beat or faced this season, but I can't see odds for him bigger than 2.75. Nice value here for Safwat. 

 

[CzechPunter]

Meh. One of those weeks when nothing goes your way, that Evans meltdown was something else, 9DFs + incredibly silly net-rushing.

[four-leaf]

1 minute ago, CzechPunter said:

Meh. One of those weeks when nothing goes your way, that Evans meltdown was something else, 9DFs + incredibly silly net-rushing.

I've taken Stefan Kozlov 2-0, do you think he can make it? I think so and you've got your last bet on him for the win only but straight sets shouldn't be impossible for him.

[CzechPunter]

Of course he can, but there are no guarantees that he will.

[ogii55]

Two early prices from Bratislava QF. I think the lines are doing to drop so now is the moment.

 

Gerasimov - Copil 3.25 Pinnacle

 

Call me stupid, but I will continue to bet against Copil. This guy won two matches without impressing. Today it was 50/50 showdown, but he took the important points. Gerasimov is the last year winner here. He beat Copil in the semifinal and is very motivated to get those points, because this season was full of injury for him. He won was very strong in his first two matches and if he plays like that he is the favorite to win the event.

Pavlasek - Medvedev 3.10 Pinnacle

Medvedev won his two matches here mainly because of his first serve and lack of good return game of his opponents. Pavlasek is a clay courter so he is capable to return better. I can't say that Medvedev is so strong favorite here, maybe his odds must be in a range f 2.50-2.60.

 

 

 

 

[ogii55]

Napolitano - Basic 2.39

Napolitano beat stronger opponents in the first two round. He is serving great. The Italian is on the verge of beating his best rankings and this will be an extra motivation for him playing in home soil. Basic wasn't impressive against weak opponents. The match is 50/50, but the better odds worth a try.

[ogii55]

Elie - Maia 3.97 Pinnacle

 

Elie just turned 30, but she is making her best season. The American is in great form beating in style favorites. She did well in the first two rounds and dominated her matches. Maia won a tournament last week, but now the number of matches is starting to put a pressure on her. She even played a double match in Waco. It will be her 9th match in 11 days. Her last two on singles were 3-setters. Those odds are amazing value. Maia could be the favorite here, but with no more than 3.00 odds.

[ogii55]

4 hours ago, ogii55 said:

Two early prices from Bratislava QF. I think the lines are doing to drop so now is the moment.

 

Gerasimov - Copil 3.25 Pinnacle

 

Call me stupid, but I will continue to bet against Copil. This guy won two matches without impressing. Today it was 50/50 showdown, but he took the important points. Gerasimov is the last year winner here. He beat Copil in the semifinal and is very motivated to get those points, because this season was full of injury for him. He won was very strong in his first two matches and if he plays like that he is the favorite to win the event.

Pavlasek - Medvedev 3.10 Pinnacle

Medvedev won his two matches here mainly because of his first serve and lack of good return game of his opponents. Pavlasek is a clay courter so he is capable to return better. I can't say that Medvedev is so strong favorite here, maybe his odds must be in a range f 2.50-2.60.

 

 

 

 

Gerasimov odds are 2.38 in Pinnacle, while Pavlasek is 2.78 now. So much money on them.

[CzechPunter]

[ogii55]

Karatancheva - Min 2.13 Pinnacle

 

The last time Karatancheva won three matches in a row was year and a half ago. She is leading 4:1 against Min with her only loss was on clay. All the wins were on hard or Indoor hard. Sesil played very strong yesterday and showed the killer instinct that put her among Top 100 . Min is better on clay. The chances here are as a coin flip, but the bonus of .13 for Sesil is not bad.

[four-leaf]

I am watching something else right now. Mackie Mcdonald serving underhand and still manage to win the first set. He is humiliating Peter Polansky who doesn't have a clue how to attack Mackies serves. Never seen anything like it before in tennis. It's ridiculous.

[CzechPunter]

At *4-2, McDonald injured his abdomen, got broken and couldn't serve anymore. He nonetheless managed to hold TWICE serving underarm (!), with Polansky having no clue how to deal with that - and McDonald was still outplaying him from the baseline. McDonald then took the TB and spent the entire pause between sets practising underhand serves (Polansky even took a toilet break)! Let's see what happens now. Historic.

[four-leaf]

Mackies underhand serves is taking Peter out of his comfort zone and Mackie acts on court as if he had the heart of a warrior.

[four-leaf]

Shouldn't Mackie retire?

[four-leaf]

He is playing on 50% of his capacity right now Mackie. He should lose in the end.

[CzechPunter]

13 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Shouldn't Mackie retire?

Of course he should, in theory - and I suppose that he would have had Polansky broken him straight away when play resumed. But he's obviously not retiring while he's up. Would be the most embarrassing loss of Polansky's career.

[CzechPunter]

Ended with McDonald trolling everyone by retiring 2pts away from losing .

[ogii55]

 

 

Schoofs - Mitu 2.56 Pinnacle

Bratislava

Schoofs started from qualifications, but improved with each match. She is serving solidly and loves the surface. Mitu also was doing well, but she needed 3-sets to pass the quarterfinals. Pretty even match with nice odds.

I am thinking to play against Bennetau, but will wait for odds close to 2.85 for Gojowcik, who is destroying everyone here.

 

 

[owenclass]

I cant wait for the ATP Your Finals

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

9 hours ago, owenclass said:

I cant wait for the ATP Your Finals

Just one day ;).

[four-leaf]

Stefan Kozlov to beat Michael Mmoh for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with bet365

Czech has already pointed out how big talent Stefan is and I belive he is better then Michael right now and it will be fun if Stefan reaches this final against probably Jared Donaldson. My worries are that Michael has beaten Stefan twice this season in straight sets by 7-5 6-4 both times but let's hope it's time for Stefan Kozlov to shine this tournament.

I have taken a double with Jared and Stefan to win today on bet365 so I'm hoping big time for Jared Donaldson and Stefan Kozlov. 

Edited November 12, 2016 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

Happy to see this week go, nothing made sense . Polansky's run in Knoxville has to be one of the year's biggest flukes.

[Guest]

I am so happy that I took a break this week watching this results... I hope Polansky wins first set tomorrow so I can place LIVE bet on young Mmoh to warm up for next week and ATP finals 

Annyone watching women ITF tennis? Beatriz Haddad Maia is paying some crazy tennis, I watched her agianst Gibbs, Ahn and Crawford and she crushed all of them! Ahn made it to two tiebreaks but had no chance, Haddad won any point she wanted... I wonder how she plays on clay, she should be a player to watch in 2017, especially on clay if she is true Latin clay court specialist.  Again, I hope Min takes first set so I can place LIVE bet on her... It should be a banker! 

Anyone has any news on Raonic and his injury, muscle tear or something? If he is fit and able to play he should be a banker on really fast court in London. I remember seeing a chart with speed of main court in each master tournament and London was fastest by far!  What about Monfils, where was he last few weeks, no sign of him after Stockholm... I expected to see him in Paris at least. Raonic with odds 6 at bet365 to win weak group -> questionable Monfils, out of form Djokovic with some personal issues I guess and Thiem who is not ob level of other 7 players for sureee...

[CzechPunter]

Not sure whether the chart was correct, as London seemed pretty slow last year, but we'll see. Today's matches are a mess though, you don't know anything about the players - Thiem was very poor in recent weeks, Djokovic is a mess, Monfils was injured and so was Raonic. Not willing to trust anyone before seeing what happens. Haven't seen Maia recently, so can't comment on that.

 

[ogii55]

Napolitano - Gianessi 2.32 Pinnacle

 

Napolitano was impressive during the entire week. He is serving very solidly. Despite the fact that he is 0:1 in H2H Stefano is my favorite here. He showed great results at indoor hard this year. Gianessi needs 3 times to got on three sets. He didn't serve well yesterday and was lucky to win.

 

Mmoh - Polanski 2.23

Mmoh needs to be the favorite here. He is so solid and beat without any real problems his opponents. I see great development in his game since the start of the season and he is playing like Top 100. Mcdonald benefited from total self destruction by Evans and inury by Mcdonald. I can't see how he will be able to beat Mmoh, if the younger guy plays like in the previous rounds.

Rublev - Benetau 2.42

Yesterday I was on the wrong end at Benneteau's match, but in fact he used his experience to win a very close encounter. Benneteau was struggling in the long ralies, just like Bennoit Paire against Rublev. The Russian is in top form. His only problem is his attitude, but he showed great mentality in the tough moments against Paire. Rublev will cause far more problems to Benetau then Gojowczik.

 

 

 

[Guest]

I like all of those matches, France, especially Mladenovic if Garcia losses, Mmoh, Rublev and Napolitano... 

[astute]

Ogii 55 credit where due I backed both the above yesterday and they duely won, too man. In return, not tennis but will be a winner, Tuesday night, make sure you invest in Swindon Town to beat Eastleigh in the FA Cup (English football). The price is 1.83 or 5/6 but a strong bet and a return for the above I took from you.  Regards.