Tennis in play betting

[usma]

Hello, i recognized recently that there a big time delays in in-play tennis betting between the different bookmakers,

The time delay at one bookie ( i won`t tell the name) is so big that i can quickly place a bet on who wins the set if i see at the other bookie (e.g. bet 365) that the player made a point and the bets are mostly accepted. So i have an information advantage of one point. So, i place a bet on "player A wins 1st set" with an odd of 1,5 but in fact it is only 1,4. Bigger decreases of the odds (e.g. after a break point are not accepted).

The problem is that i tried it, but the drop is not big enough to be profitable.

My question is: Is there any way to multiplicate this little advantage to be profitable, e.g. to recompensate losses also only with these 

type of bets as a progression strategy?

 

Edited October 31, 2016 by usma

[CzechPunter]

Can't think of any off the top of my head, but that's not to say that it's all impossible. One danger is that Bet365 or whoever gets the point wrong and you place your bet before it gets corrected, i.e. at unfavourable odds.

[usma]

I never experienced that bet 365 got a point wrong. They are very accurate. And even if it would be wrong, it would not mean that the bet was lost. I am only placing bets on the whole set of a tennis game. 

If i see on bet 365 that e.g. Roger Federer made a point i quickly press the button "Place bet" on the other bookie with the "old" odd , but the odd drops from e.g. 1,6 to 1,45 that Federer wins. It always takes a few tries, but it works very often that the bet is logged in. So, i have one point knowledge advantage. But if the difference of the odd is more than 0,3 (which would

be profitable) it never works. I do not know why.

i thought that if i such a bet is lost i try to regain the lost money with the same kind of bet and stop trying to regain after 5 losses in a row.

 

My thought is that :

old odd:                                                                                "real" odd:

1,5 = losing probability of 33%                                             1,35= losing probability of 26%

0,33 x0,33x0,33x 0,33 x0,33=losing probability=0,4%             0,26 x0,26 x0,26 x0,26x 0,26= 0,1%

 

 

Or did i oversee something important why it cannot work? Or does someone know a way to potentize/intensify this effect to earn money?

 

Edited October 31, 2016 by usma

[CzechPunter]

Not sure whether there's more than just a bit of value for you to enjoy, but, then again, I've never been into this more technical style of betting too much. Plenty of knowledgeable chaps around, hopefully someone will be able to help you.

[Sir Puntalot]

@slapdashLoves a bit of probability, perhaps he has a view.  

[slapdash]

Somebody called?

First, let me say I know next to nothing about tennis (truth be told, I know next to nothing about any sport).

If I understand correctly, you have a bookie who's slow to react to events, but this isn't in general enough to make a losing bet into a profitable bet?

I'm afraid that if it's still a losing bet, even marginally, then there's no way to make it into a profitable bet by combining it with other bets.

The only way I can think of to make this a profitable betting strategy is to find some way to be selective in which opportunities you take. For example:

Maybe you think the betting market in general underestimates the chances of player A. Given the bookies' margins this might not be enough to make a bet on player A profitable, but maybe if you combine this with the edge from your bookie being slow to react to player A winning a point, the combination might be enough to make a bet profitable?

Or maybe there's more of an edge in some specific situations. It seems likely that a player winning a point near the end of a match makes more of a difference to their chances of winning than early in the match. Though your slow bookie might be more on the ball in such situations.

Or a strategy I've had moderate success with in horse-racing (see my threads in the Glory Hunters forum) is to look for situations where bookies offer better odds than the "lay" odds on Betfair. I'd guess that Betfair is quite quick to react to events in tennis matches, so you might use them to judge when the effect of an event is enough to make your bookie's odds profitable?

 

 

 

[usma]

Hello, combining an underestimated Player with my type of bet might be profitable. But how i recognize a value bet?

Sometimes the odds of my bookie are 0,15 higher than on bet365 in inplaybetting (e.g. Player A to win set: 1,6 on bet365

and 1,75 on the other bookie) . Is this a value bet? How do i know which bookie is more accurate and which not? 

 

And what about my calculation with the martingale like progression? Does this intensify the profits after let`s say 5 steps  to come into a profitable region or is it a miscalculation?

Edited November 1, 2016 by usma

[Sir Puntalot]

Did you say Martingale?  That's a swear word on PL.  

[usma]

No, i do not mean real Martingale. My strategy would be to regain losses withe the same type of time delay bets up to 5 losses. Ater the 5th loss, i would stop trying to regain losses. But until that point i would have earned enough money so that after a loss i still would be in plus.  

My question is if this method intensifies the advantages of the time delay in a mathematical way? I think the more steps it takes the higher is the effect. Or is this an illusion?

See the bold calculation below:

 

My thought is that :

old odd:                                                                                "real" odd:

1,5 = losing probability of 33%                                             1,35= losing probability of 26%                   0,33: 0,26= 1,27

0,33 x0,33x0,33x 0,33 x0,33=losing probability=0,4%             0,26 x0,26 x0,26 x0,26x 0,26= 0,1%       0,4 : 0,1= 4

 

Edited November 1, 2016 by usma

[usma]

?

[BuffChestmen]

The martingale collapses pretty quick in sports betting because of the juice. In a coin flip you're paid 1:1 and the odds are the same, so it makes sense to chase. In tennis, it's not uncommon to see 1:10 odds. chase that twice and you're betting $100 to win your $1.

The odds makers aren't really looking for an accurate or fair line. They're looking to create action and get paid on both ends so if there's a big odds difference, it's not because one knows better, it's because they're trying to get more people to bet on one end of the table or the other.

Knowing the numbers helps with getting an edge but knowing tennis would help you even more. Knowing the players. Who is tenacious? Who gets pissy? Who's consistent? Who isn't? These things will help you decide where these advanced knowledge bets will give you the best value. If you saw Monfils's melt down at Stockholm, you know exactly what I'm talking about. I was 1 second away from getting Elias at +280. Line went to -500 real fast but if I had a slower bookie, that's where you want to make that play.

 

 

[usma]

Hello, how can i figure out in In-Play-Betting if a bet has an edge? Is there any other way than comparing the odds?

If 5 bookies have lower odds than the odd of my bookie, is this a hint that this is a value bet? 

If e.g. the odd for a player to win the game is 1,5 at bet365 and 1,65 at another bookie, is this a value bet?

[CzechPunter]

Yes, that's correct thinking.

[usma]

Unfortunately, i followed this strategy without success. I placed around 50 bets on Netbet always when the odds where at least 0,1 higher and under 2,00 compared with the odds of bet365 and bwin combined. But i made a loss after these 50 bets. 

How can that be possible?

[CzechPunter]

Because the fact that you're getting higher odds doesn't mean that you're guaranteed a profit. Your returns are guaranteed to be higher than what they would be if you were betting on lower odds, but that's it.

[usma]

Yes, the returns are higher than betting on lower odds. But obviously not high enough to make a profit. How high should the difference be too jump over the profit line/ margin of the bookie? more than 0,2 under 2,00? 

[CzechPunter]

The higher, the better. Since 1,83x1,83 seems to be the default at many bookies, a difference of 0,2 should do for a small edge, but again, there are no guarantees of getting a profit in the short run. Ideally, you'd want to combine this edge with some knowledge of tennis that would allow you to get an even better edge.