MLS > MLS Cup Play Offs 2016

[_Ghost_]

First things first, a quick about me

I was previously a semi-active poster on these boards a few years (under a different username), I’ve decided the time is now right to make my (hopefully) triumphant return. I intend to be posting picks/ discussion topics on a regular basis that will mostly be football and boxing with the odd rugby league and NFL post. The majority of the material I post will be stats/ value based. I’m also hoping to up my activity on Twitter so feel free to follow @jamiedavies02

Now that’s the intro out of the way…

MLS Cup Play Offs 2016

Points to note - The Western Conference winner has won 15 of the last 20 MLS Cups, including the last 7 and 10 of the last 11. During the 2016 season there have been 100 inter-conference matches, when a Western team has hosted an Eastern team their record is 28-15-7 and when an Eastern team has hosted a Weastern team it's 25-15-10, West has the overall lead with a 38-30-32 record.

FC Dallas, Colorado, NY Red Bull and New York City are advanced to the Conference Semi Finals due to their league position, all other sides start in the knockout round.

Below is my shots ratings and data for the teams involved in the play offs fromt the regular season (key also included - any questions please ask) and the latest outright odds.

[StevieDay1983]

Bookies backing a home side sweep in the first batch of play-off games. What do you think @jamiedavies02? Doesn't look like your picks loaded properly so type them out below to let us know your thoughts.

[_Ghost_]

I compile my own tissue prices and in my opinion the bookies have these first round of matches priced correctly. As the odds suggest Toronto should progress comfortably, I think DC outperform Montreal on pretty much all my KPIs above and should progress, if there's going to be an upset Sporting Kansas could be the one, I'm also keen to oppose the Galaxy over the course of the playoffs but maybe not tonight

[StevieDay1983]

On 26/10/2016, 18:22:22, jamiedavies02 said:

I compile my own tissue prices and in my opinion the bookies have these first round of matches priced correctly. As the odds suggest Toronto should progress comfortably, I think DC outperform Montreal on pretty much all my KPIs above and should progress, if there's going to be an upset Sporting Kansas could be the one, I'm also keen to oppose the Galaxy over the course of the playoffs but maybe not tonight

Are these first round of play-off games often this tricky to call? I didn't see that Montreal result coming! Especially without Drogba playing and all the hooha surrounding that episode.

[StevieDay1983]

Amazing how the Montreal win in the last round has now got the bookies all over the place. Fascinating odds on that game and the Seattle match.

[_Ghost_]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Are these first round of play-off games often this tricky to call? I didn't see that Montreal result coming! Especially without Drogba playing and all the hooha surrounding that episode.

To be honest this is my first proper season covering the MLS, I'm still adapting my methods from the European leagues and seeing what works and what doesn't. I certainly didn't see that Montreal result coming, as mentioned above DC United outperformed them on pretty much all of my KPIs, but that's why we love football, knockout football especially, anything can happen!

 

 

[_Ghost_]

Below is my tissue/ stats for the first leg of the Conference Semi Finals

Again compared to the 365 prices above the bookies seem to have these matches priced correctly. As you can see NYRB are better than Montreal on all 10 of my KPIs whilst Dallas better Seattle in 8 out of 10, I won't be getting involved in any match betting though as I don't deem the prices value but I expect these two sides to progress. LA Galaxy and Colorado look set for a war of attrition over the next week and a winner looks difficult to call. I'm hoping Toronto can progress from their tie with NYC, I wouldn't put anybody of backing Toronto to win the MLS Cup at 9/1 given how the overall picture looks...

 

[StevieDay1983]

Yes, I can see the appeal of Toronto. I'm just a little worried by the fact they lose when they should should grind out draws. Makes me think they could falter in the play-offs.

[StevieDay1983]

The bookies firmly backing NY Red Bulls and FC Dallas here. The other two games are less certain. I can see wins for the two New York sides. I still think FC Dallas being so low is a big call considering Seattle absolutely dominated them in the first leg. I would also not be surprised to see LA Galaxy take something from their game with Colorado Rapids.

[vasilli07]

Odds maybe abit low but I like NYRB chance of over coming the 1st loss. They are 1 of the best home team in the league.

NYC and FC Dallas are gone. NYC could win but is very likely to concede as well. It's unlikely they will score enough to overcome Toronto.

As for Rapids, they will have to change their game plan. They are known for their defensive gameplan rather than attacking game. LA Galaxy will likely score an away goal and eliminate them.

 

[StevieDay1983]

On 01/11/2016, 16:34:32, vasilli07 said:

Odds maybe abit low but I like NYRB chance of over coming the 1st loss. They are 1 of the best home team in the league.

NYC and FC Dallas are gone. NYC could win but is very likely to concede as well. It's unlikely they will score enough to overcome Toronto.

As for Rapids, they will have to change their game plan. They are known for their defensive gameplan rather than attacking game. LA Galaxy will likely score an away goal and eliminate them.

 

Yes, I agree with New York Red Bull. I am half tempted to put a handicap bet on it at -1 for the home side. I think a 2-0 or even 3-0 win is extremely plausible.

[vasilli07]

Yup, that's probably the better play especially with the moneyline odds dropping.

[_Ghost_]

Quite looking forward to these games tonight, again no value in the match odds so no bets for me so I'll be cheering on my antepost picks (Colorado, Dallas, Red Bull & Toronto FWIW) but here's my take on tonight;

Colorado v LA - The Rapids have kept clean sheets in 59% of their home matches with the Galaxy failing to score in 29% of their away games, Rapids have only failed to score in 18% of home matches with Galaxy only keeping clean sheets in 18% of away games I'm going for a 1-0 home win here, but agree if Galaxy get the away goal it's difficult to see how Colorado progress.

NYRB v Montreal -Montreal have lost by more than 1 goal on 8 occasions , on the other hand NYRB have won by more than 1 goal on 9 occasions, I fancy the home side to progress

NYCFC v Toronto - NYCFC are the most likely winners but will probably concede, given that Toronto have only lost by more than 1 goal on one occasions this season I'd be surprised to see NYCFC overturn this one.

Dallas v Seattle - Dallas have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their home matches, they need one tonight to give themselves any chance of turning things round, they've won by 3 or more goals on 2 occasions this season and that was with Mauro Diaz in the ranks, they may well win tonight but I think the SUpporters Shield and MLS Open CUp winners season ends tonight.

My 4 conference finalists; LA Galaxy, NYRB, Toronto & Seattle.

 

[_Ghost_]

Something to keep an eye on inplay, away goals DO NOT count after extra time, may get a potential pricing error inplay during any games that go to ET

The four Conference Semifinals will be decided by a two-game aggregate series, with the lower seed hosting the 1st leg and the higher seed hosting the 2nd leg. If the aggregate score is tied after 180 minutes of play, the away goals tiebreaker rule will apply so as to be consistent with CONCACAF and FIFA practice. If the series remains tied, two 15-minute extra time periods will be played in their entirety, followed by penalty kicks, if necessary. The away goals tiebreaker will not apply to extra time in the 2^nd leg of any two-legged playoff series.

[_Ghost_]

Below is a snapshot of my ratings and a tissue (available odds) for the Conference Finals, I'm hoping for a Colorado v Toronto final, both of those sides lead their opposition in the majority of my ratings;

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the odds for the Conference Finals. It's going to be a very interesting set of matches. A while to wait as well so a lot to consider. I think a lot of us are going to hold our breath over the international break before making a decision on what to go for. Toronto still going strong @jamiedavies02!

[vasilli07]

Impact - Toronto will be abit hard to call. I think Sounders will edge Rapids in the 1st game especially with Gashi(very likely) and Howard out.

[_Ghost_]

I like the Rapids to pick up the W tomorrow, they're 8/11 on my tissue so take some of William Hills 23/20.

[_Ghost_]

Toronto will host Seattle in the MLS Cup final, Toronto take a clean sweep on my KPIs, my tissue has them at 4/5, draw at 13/5 and Seattle at 9/2.

[vasilli07]

I'm going for Sounders to win it. I think they have a better defence.

[StevieDay1983]

OK, everyone! Less than a week left! Get all your bets and tips posted on this season finale! Toronto have been backed on here for a while now. Can they go that final step and win it? What an achievement it would be! Seattle still have some supporters in here though. Are you #TeamToronto or #TeamSounders?

[vasilli07]

Sounders draw no bet @ 3.36

While history favors the hosting team but I like Sounders to win it. Toronto beat a slumping Union and 2 defensive bad teams in NYC and Montreal Impact. Sounders has a stronger defence than the 3 teams I said and should provide a stiffer test for Toronto. Since Schmid departure and Lodeiro arrival, everything has gone right for them. From no playoffs hopes to now the finals, this pretty much set them for a win. Let's go Sounders!!!