Cheltenham Thursday - 16th March 2017

[Sir Puntalot]

Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival

 

Latest Odds for the big race of the day - The Stayers Hurdle

 

https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/world-hurdle-odds

 

[BillyHills]

Race Schedule for Cheltenham 2017

Thursday 17th March
 

Time	Race	Distance	Type
1.30	JLT Novices Chase	2m 4f	Chase
2.10	Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle	3m	Hurdle
2.50	Ryanair Chase	2m 5f	Chase
3.30	World Hurdle	3m	Hurdle
4.10	Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate	2m 5f	Chase
4.50	Trull House Stud Mares Novices Hurdle	2m 1f	Hurdle
5.30	Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup	3m 2f	Chase

[BillyHills]

JLT Novice Chase

 

 

[BillyHills]

Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

 

[BillyHills]

Ryanair Chase

 

[BillyHills]

Stayers Hurdle

 

[BillyHills]

Brown Advisory Handicap Chase

 

[BillyHills]

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase

 

 

[waynecoyne]

snow falcon was travelling well when he fell in the race won by unowhatimeanharry

[BillyHills]

Unknowhatimeanharry has been shortened for the World Hurdle after an easy win at Ascot over the weekend.

It looks a standard race this season and many in the betting look sure to run elsewhere.

 

[BillyHills]

The World Hurdle is no more!

Cheltenham have announced a new sponsor for the feature race on Thursday of the Festival.

It will now be known by the old name of the  'Stayers' Hurdle' after a new 3-year deal was signed this week.

It has been known as the World Hurdle since 2004.

[BillyHills]

Stayers Hurdle Contenders

Unowhatimeanharry (5-2) the favourite will bid for an eighth consecutive victory over the Stayers' Hurdle course and distance in the Grade 2 Galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on January 28.

Vroum Vroum Mag (7-1) the super sub has entries in the Champion Hurdle, Mares' Hurdle, Champion Chase, Ryanair, Gold Cup and this and where she has her prep run is just as open.

Nichols Canyon (12-1) where he goes next could be dependant on Faugheen's return as the obvious deputy in the Mullins yard should he not make it to the Irish Champion Hurdle. If Faugheen does make it then he has a whole host of options over a variety of trips, including the Grade 2 John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park on January 26 if they want to test his stamina.

Ballyoptic (14-1) fell at the last when alongside Unowhatimeanharry in the Long Walk at Ascot and could get weight from the same opponent in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Jezki (14-1) has been off the track since beating Hurricane Fly at the 2015 Punchestown festival but is due back at Navan this weekend. The Grade 2 Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran Park on February 18.

Source : Racing Post

 

NRNB - Bet365

 

[cannastar]

whisper was I believe a good winner over xmas.given a cracking ride by davy Russell round outside on fresher ground he jumped the last better than his main rival but ut was the way he stayed up the Cheltenham hill that impressed the most.seems to be a horse that likes the track and although they say he is wrong age whisper seems to have got the hang of things at the right time in his life.no doubt nicky Henderson will have this horse primed for the day come march.jlt wines novices chase.if the jockey can hold on to him for as late as possible the I can see this horse storming up the hill perhaps reminiscent of mccoys ride on witchita lineman.

Edited January 19, 2017 by cannastar

[cannastar]

Bristol de mai in the ryan air chase.due to run at either haydock or ascot this  saturday  nigel twiston davies horse is I believe a bit above a handicapper but if he runs well on Saturday without winning then I'm sure his weight cant increase too much.notice he has entries in the gold cup also but to my mind his first try at 3 miles showed he does probably stay 3 miles albeit on a flat track as Newcastle is.beaten in a 2 runner race at Carlisle on first start of season trainer was reputedly not too bothered as he felt there was a lot more to come on better ground.cant help thinking that he may end up very well in come ryan air time and a fast run ryan ayr may well play into his handsnotice he also has other entries including gold cup but I think it would be silly to take on thistlecrack etc...so for me its ryan air all the way and 25/1 looks excellent each way value to me.

[BillyHills]

Unowhatimeanharry is now a best priced 2/1 with BetVictor to win the Stayers Hurdle after easily winning the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.

It looks as though Jezki and Shaneshill will be the main opponents along with Cole Harden and Ballyoptic from this side of the Irish Sea.

[BillyHills]

3 early ones for Thursday

[BillyHills]

2.10: Pertemps

 Jury Duty EW 10/1 Betfair

The fairy tale ending to this race would be a victory for Tobefair who has won his last six races since moving to Debra Hamer and gone up 48lbs in the process. Good luck to them but my preference is for Jury Duty which would be a rare winner for the Irish in this contest.

The Gordon Elliott trained 6yo was a well beaten second to Gayebury last time out but he wasn’t unduly punished once his chance had gone. He travelled well to two out and better ground will suit him here and he’s a lot better off at the weights with the winner.

Elsewhere Paul Nicholls looks to have a strong hand and Mr Mix might be the pick of his runners.

 

4.50: Mares Novice

 Let's Dance 6/4 Bet365

This race went to Limini in its inaugural season and trainer Willie Mullins holds all the aces here once again with the fancied Lets Dance and Airlie Beach. I don’t think there is much to choose between the pair on form, Lets Dance has won her last four starts and Airlie Beach is unbeaten in seven races if you include her bumper outings. Of the two I would just side with Lets Dance as she was a good 4^th in the Triumph last year and that experience will count for a lot.

The home side are relying on the Warren Greatrex mare La Bague Au Roi or at bigger odds Colin’s Sister who is unbeaten in four starts this season for Fergal O’Brien.

 

4.10: Brown Advisory

 Startchitect EW 9/1 Bet365

Over the years this race has gone to horses at the lower end of the handicap, in fact no horse has carried more than 10st11lbs to victory since 2008. With this in mind my vote goes to the David Pipe runner Starchitect who was a very useful hurdler last season and is strating to get his act together over fences. He has had just three starts over the bigger obstacles and won well last time out at Ayr where he beat Takingrisks by an easy three lengths. I’m sure there is more to come and the shrewd trainer has him just about where he wants him in the weights.

I respect the Philip Hobbs pair Village Vic and Garde La Victoire but both have stiff tasks off a mark of 158.

 

5.30: Kim Muir

 Southfield Royale EW 10/1 Bet365

The last race on Day 3 is the highly competitive Kim Muir Chase and this in the past has gone to class horses in the line up. It’s a race for Amateur riders so it’s also very important to have a top jockey on your side. On both of these counts Southfields Royale passes the test and with many doubts surrounding the majority of these he will do for a solid each way selection.

Trained by the in form Neil Mulholland and ridden by the up and coming young Amateur James King this 7yo is in good hands. We have to forget his last run at Doncaster where he made errors early on and never got involved, hopefully this will be a different story and has a good 4^th here last year behind Minella Rocco in the form book.

[richard-westwood]

Just browsing the pertemps final betting ...some of the prices on betfair are staggering ..,Sutton manor for instance 40.0  and ballymalin 28.0 ....both have ran really well and if the run are vastly overpriced in such an open race ....

Sutton manor 10pts win 40.0 betfair

Balkymalin 10pts win 28.0 betfair 

[robertob]

1.30: JLT Novices’ Chase

A race that’ll evolve around the jumping of Yorkhill. With a clear round he’s very hard to beat. But I’m not sure if he will get this clear round. His first start over fences was a Mickey Mouse contest where he didn’t learn much, his second and most recent start was one that didn’t impress many and clearly left me wondering too.

Jumping is the game, the saying goes – particularly at Cheltenham. That brings Disko very much into the equation. Noel Meade’s inmate was impressive at Leopardstown when last seen, he’s still improving and has the distance and ground in him.

Officially rated only one pound below Yorkhill you have to take him serious. Whether the big performance at Leopardstown in February has taken too much out him is a question mark. But he is a super jumper who may put the pressure on Yorkhill’s potentially weak point.

Selection:
5pts win – Disko @ 5/1 Paddy Power

…….

2.10: Pertemps Finale

A big field handicap but one that can be easily broken down to a good handful of serious contenders. Favourite Tobefair looks a big chance. So does El Bandit and Impulsive Star together with Jury Duty from the other side of the Irish Sea.

In the end I’m nailing my colours to Impulsive Star and Jury Duty. Neil Mulholland’s lightly raced seven year old has been progressive throughout the season resulting in three wins out of four runs, while the one time he was beaten he encountered some excellent opposition.

He won’t mind the decent ground and stays really well. One who should relish the test of a big field where he can battle up the hill. A career highest mark he has to overcome, but this serious talent could easily be better than his current mark.

Ireland’s Jury Duty is equally lightly raced, though his win record isn’t as good. He’s encountered some strong opposition, though, and was slightly unlucky here and there in the past.

He picked up a niggle in his preparation and had to be rushed in order to qualify, which he did at Chepstow eventually.

The quick ground is a slight concern but this lad may have still some serious improvement left in him. It’s probably fair to say we didn’t see the best yet and that gives me hope for a big run here.

Selection:
5pts win – Impulsive Star @ 10/1 Betfair SB
5pts win – Jury Duty @ 10/1 Betfair SB

…..

2.50: Ryanair Chase

A bit a surprise to see Empire of Dirt declared given I thought he’d be the ideal candidate for the Gold Cup, even more so after Don Poli’s absence. He’s here though and rates a major chance.

A festival winner last year, runner-up in the Irish Gold Cup this year – he’s got stamina in abundance as well as class. Ground and trip are not necessarily a worry but I do wonder if the big race from last month left a mark? He also produced some of his finest performances as a fresh horse.

That’s like complaining on a high level, of course, yet I feel he’s not the ideal candidate that I want to lump on in this race.

Speedier Un De Sceaux is favoured in the betting. The former Arkle winner and Champion Chase runner-up has had a perfect preparation with two wins from two starts this season. He can be a bit edgy jumping wise, might not quite appreciate the quick ground and the trip is one that may stretch him with others surely making this a test of stamina.

He’s the most likely winner but nothing more than a fair price. The one I do like is Empire Of Dirt stablemate Sub Lieutenant.

Far from a sexy selection, but a value price in my book. He’s proven on good ground and still only an eight year old. He’s had an ideal preparation and put a string of fine performances together this season, including a success over subsequent Lexus Chase winner Outlander.

With that in mind and more than double the price of UDC and EOD I feel he can give those two something to think about on Thursday.

Selection:
10pts Win – Sub Lieutenant @ 8/1 Bet365

…….

3.30: World Hurdle

On all evidence Unowhatimeanharry is very hard to beat here. He’s a machine who’s proven class over course and distance. But he’s also a very short price. Too short for me.

Looking for alternatives I can see previous World Hurdle winner Cole Harden going close, but the one intriguing me most is quite clearly Ballyoptic.

He finished a couple of times behind the favourite this season and probably the same fate awaits here. But fact is he’s a Grade 1 winning novice himself who’s still a relatively young horse on the upward who was only 6l behind in second Unowhatimeanharry at Newbury in November.

After a disappointing performance over course and distance in the Cleeve Hurdle he got a bit of a break and his wind done – he’ll try a tongue tie for the first time here too – that in combination might bring out further improvement.

If it does and if he can get back to his early season form then he’ll be able to outrun his price tag and should be in the shake-up which is enough for a healthy place part of an each-way bet to pay.

Selection:
5pts E/W – Ballyoptic @ 16/1 Bet365

…….

4.10: Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap

Having fancied him to have a chance to finish runner-up to Altior in the Arkle, I have to fancy him for this, right? Le Prezien of course, that is. Granted he runs here and not in the Grand Annual, I feel he’s rated a big chance.

The French recruit has had a good – albeit – light season so far, including a Grade 2 success here at Cheltenham. Hi seasonal reappearance when second behind Charbel looks increasingly strong form after his excellent performance in the Arkle on Tuesday.

Off a mark of 146 I can see Le Prezien do some damage here, as long as he stays the trip, which is a slight question mark. Given he won over 2m in soft conditions at Cheltenham before and was a fine runner-up at Aintree behind Yorkhill over 2m 4f last season, he’s probably a decent chance to get the trip.

Selection:
5pts win – Le Prezien @ 14/1 Bet365

……

5.30: Kim Mur Amateur Riders’ Chase

Plain and simple Potters Legend is the one I want. While I also quite like Southfield Royale, I find it hard to trust him at a shortish price. Potters Legend, a lightly raced novice, will find this a tough assignment against seasoned handicappers but he could be one who has the talent to relish the challenge,

He produced fair performances this season and the last two times in Handicaps off his current mark. The step up in trip is intriguing and may or may not suit. But if he has to have a chance then because of improvement coming for the stamina test.

The good ground should definitely help to stay the distance. At a price he’s a decent bet in this race I feel.

Selection:
5pts win – Potters Legend @ 16/1 William Hill

[richard-westwood]

Brown advisory stable plate 

Ballykan and Thomas crappier have both posted really strong efforts lately and come here at least firing on all cylinders ....priced at 14/1 and 33/1 they look excellent value for a good run 

Ballykan 10pts win 33/1 bet365

Thomas crapper 10pts win 14/1 pp

[owenclass]

My selections for Thursday

1.30 Top Notch
2.10 Tobefair
2.50 Empire of Dirt
3.30 Unowhatimeanharry
4.10 Diamond King
4.50 Arlie Beach
5.30 Squouateur

These horses are running well and have trainers are doing well this week

[richard-westwood]

On 14/03/2017, 21:26:13, richard-westwood said:

Just browsing the pertemps final betting ...some of the prices on betfair are staggering ..,Sutton manor for instance 40.0  and ballymalin 28.0 ....both have ran really well and if the run are vastly overpriced in such an open race ....

Sutton manor 10pts win 40.0 betfair

Balkymalin 10pts win 28.0 betfair 

Nice prices .....just want to strengthen my team with arctic gold who looked yo be coming to peak form last time and also looks fab valueat 50/1

Arcticgold 10pts win 50/1 pp

[richard-westwood]

18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Brown advisory stable plate 

Ballykan and Thomas crappier have both posted really strong efforts lately and come here at least firing on all cylinders ....priced at 14/1 and 33/1 they look excellent value for a good run 

Ballykan 10pts win 33/1 bet365

Thomas crapper 10pts win 14/1 pp

Looking in markets today there's loads of value on offer champagne at tiara 28/1 stands out and katachenko 40/1 so ill have 10pts on thisectwo as well 

[robertob]

23 hours ago, robertob said:

4.10: Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap

Having fancied him to have a chance to finish runner-up to Altior in the Arkle, I have to fancy him for this, right? Le Prezien of course, that is. Granted he runs here and not in the Grand Annual, I feel he’s rated a big chance.

The French recruit has had a good – albeit – light season so far, including a Grade 2 success here at Cheltenham. Hi seasonal reappearance when second behind Charbel looks increasingly strong form after his excellent performance in the Arkle on Tuesday.

Off a mark of 146 I can see Le Prezien do some damage here, as long as he stays the trip, which is a slight question mark. Given he won over 2m in soft conditions at Cheltenham before and was a fine runner-up at Aintree behind Yorkhill over 2m 4f last season, he’s probably a decent chance to get the trip.

Selection:
5pts win – Le Prezien @ 14/1 Bet365

4.10: Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap

Update: my original selection Le Prezien is out and instead runs in the Grand Annual tomorrow - so I re-evaluated the race and come to the conclusion at given prices, now that he made it actually into the race, Katachenko of a feather weight must have a decent chance to be in the shake-up.

He had a light enough campaign to date after finishing last season on a high thanks to Graded success over two miles at Aintree. His most recent run over a little more than 3 miles at Catterick, which is quite an undulating track, was a fine prep.

Stamina questions were answered that say in my mind. He finished a fine runner-up in soft conditions, but has proven himself on better ground in the past. Given he has form over much shorter too, he should be fine with conditions today. 

At 40s with six places to pay with Skybet, I give him a chance. 

Selection:
5pts E/W - Katachenko @ 40/1 Skybet

[BillyHills]

Altior and Douvan were very short priced favourites for a simple reason, they had beat most of their rivals, if not all with ease and were expected to do so again.

Yet Unowhatimeanharry is as big as 6/4?

He is unbeaten in 8 starts since being with Harry Fry. He has won on all sorts of ground conditions and over trips varying from 2m4f to 3m. He has beat the majority of his rivals out of sight apart from the Irish contingent and I dont think this division is all that strong. A race for those not quite good enough to run at the top level over shorter. Harry is a proper stayer.

Come on Harry

[richard-westwood]

Kim Muir 

Ratings are very strong for this race and I'm due some luck so ill smash it and hope the tides about to change 

Hadrian approach 20pts win 16/1 bet365

What's happening 20pts win 14/1 lads