Premier League > Oct 29-31

[Sir Puntalot]

[Sir Puntalot]

[andrewcalo]

I've got to say, the value on Burnley to win is amazing. 

 

Draw no bet 16 to 1! Mental odds. Double chance Burnley or draw 9 to 1. This game has got 0-0 written all over it! Lump on.

Edited October 23, 2016 by andrewcalo

[StevieDay1983]

18 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

I've got to say, the value on Burnley to win is amazing. 

 

Draw no bet 16 to 1! Mental odds. Double chance Burnley or draw 9 to 1. This game has got 0-0 written all over it! Lump on.

I did think the same but then I still think Man Utd will want to bounce back from that humiliation. They are only 6 points off the top and have only lost one game at home this season and that was narrowly against City. Think it will be ugly but think United should win. Got a feeling Zlatan will break open Burnley's back line.

[andrewcalo]

22 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I did think the same but then I still think Man Utd will want to bounce back from that humiliation. They are only 6 points off the top and have only lost one game at home this season and that was narrowly against City. Think it will be ugly but think United should win. Got a feeling Zlatan will break open Burnley's back line.

Those odds though...at 12 to 1 I might hesitate, but 20 to 1? Crazy.

[andrewcalo]

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/manchester-united-news-jose-mourinho-training-methods-stunned-players-epl-table-latest-a7378871.html

[Sir Puntalot]

No Premier League team should ever be that price, but they are that price for a good reason too. I think if you backed Burnley at 20/1 in the same match 20 times, you'd win money without a doubt, but it's not my type of bet to get involved in.  

[WinningAdvice]

Man United are starting to redeem themselves? I think.

[andrewcalo]

So gents who are we on this weekend?

I think a fair few away wins.

Also, Liverpool feels right.

[Sir Puntalot]

Sunderland and West Brom at 8/1 to win at home are crazy prices for a home team. On all known form, you couldn't back them but similar to what I put above. If you backed them both 8 times at 8/1, I'd be amazed if you weren't in profit.

[andrewcalo]

2 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Sunderland and West Brom at 8/1 to win at home are crazy prices for a home team. On all known form, you couldn't back them but similar to what I put above. If you backed them both 8 times at 8/1, I'd be amazed if you weren't in profit.

Yeah and it feels like there are so many games that could go either way. This happens every so often with the uncertainty of the premiership - potentially a lot of money to be made this week.

I would say odds of around 4.0 are decent.

[StevieDay1983]

18 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Sunderland and West Brom at 8/1 to win at home are crazy prices for a home team. On all known form, you couldn't back them but similar to what I put above. If you backed them both 8 times at 8/1, I'd be amazed if you weren't in profit.

I know Man City have had the better of Tony Pulis as West Brom manager at the Hawthorns but I actually think if one manager can unsettle Pep's style of play then it's Pulis with his pressing and brute force tactics. I really would not be surprised to see City drop points there.

[Sir Puntalot]

Spurs Win @ 1.67 Ladbrokes

[Sir Puntalot]

29 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I know Man City have had the better of Tony Pulis as West Brom manager at the Hawthorns but I actually think if one manager can unsettle Pep's style of play then it's Pulis with his pressing and brute force tactics. I really would not be surprised to see City drop points there.

Agree with this - do not rule out a West Brom win here.

[malabgd]

Watford FC v Hull City

Watford FC: Isaac Success (6/1 f), Brice Dja Djédjé (0/0 d), Kenedy (1/0 m), Craig Cathcart (5/0 d), Stefano Okaka (1/0 f)

Hull City: Adama Diomande (9/1 f, suspended), Robert Snodgrass (9/3 m, top scorer), Andrew Robertson (8/0 d), Dieumerci Mbokani (2/0 f), Allan McGregor (0/0 g), Moses Odubajo (0/0 d), Alex Bruce (0/0 d), Brian Lenihan (0/0 d), Greg Luer (0/0 f)

 

West Bromwich v Manchester City

West Bromwich: James McClean (8/1 m, probably in), Claudio Yacob (9/0 m, suspended), Saido Berahino (4/0 f)

Manchester City: Pablo Zabaleta (5/0 d), Kevin de Bruyne (8/2 m), Bacary Sagna (4/0 d)(all doubtful), Fabian Delph (2/0 m), Yaya Touré (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[skyblues88]

I would go with 2 more value bets in the Premier League this weekend. 

- Watford to beat Hull (3/4). Watford are a decent home team with goals in them at Vicarage Road. Hull have been conceding goals everywhere at the minute.

- Stoke to beat Swansea (21/20). Back to back wins, good players and will not stay near the relegation zone for long. Against a struggling Swansea side. 

[mrclubbie]

I will avoid Man Utd, Arsenal and Man City for this weekend. The odds are too interesting for me to digest.

[mrclubbie]

Middlesbrough have not won in 7 EPL matches while Bournemouth bounced back strongly after the 4-0 loss against Man City with 2W 2D 9 goals 3 conceded.

If they maintain their fighting spirit as shown in the Arsenal match, they will taste a victory here.

I would think this is vital as their next 3 matches are tough opponents.

[neilovan]

In the EPL last 7 games Hull are the worst team. They have 1 point out of 21. Then come Swansea and Sunderland (2 points).

Hull have not been losing games. They have been getting smashed. They have lost their last 5, all by at least a 2 goal margin. See more of the same today at Watford. If you consider that Sunderland and Hull, will be awful this season, it will really be 1 other team relegated. Low 30 points will probably be safe. It will also mean a slightly higher points total for the Premier league winner, simply because you have two (Aston Villa's) this season.

Mourinho has so many problems at United, but surely the easiest one is to find a decent place to live, and hire a cook. The man earns 11 million a year. Stop being such a cheapskate !! Being in hotels for months at a time is soul destroying (this I know 1st hand). Find a place that gives you private, tranquil space, and spend some money on a bed that gives you a perfect nights sleep. This is basic stuff.

For me United dropping 2 points against Stoke, was far worse than losing to Chelsea. Chelsea away tough game ! Stoke at home, with the form they were in .... gimme 3 points.  No value on United to win but the over 2.5 goals looks good.

 

 

Edited October 29, 2016 by neilovan

[escou]

On 23.10.2016 г.,, Sir Puntalot said:

I can't be the only one who noticed that in the performance section numbers are different from those intially stated? I have been following ratings for all leagues and it is dodgy how different numbers appear after the game. I thought the performance section is indicating a teams' current attacking index and that is why the prediction index is different, but the games marked with a star indicate sometimes a different winner than the one originally stated by the ratings. Is this not a scam? 

[Sir Puntalot]

@escouFirstly a scam is something you generally pay for, not something that is free. 

Performance ratings are a rating for after the match. Prediction ratings are an average of the last 2 or last 4 performance ratings.

The star on performance ratings simply shows at a glance teams that were rated higher but didn't win.

[escou]

Thanks for the answer, but from what I have seen lately the star shows different results from those that prediction ratings gave, which is a manipulation which is a scam. I don't use them as they can't be trusted, according to my experience, but it is a bit frustrating to not be able to see the real hit rate of the attacking index.  

[Sir Puntalot]

You clearly don't understand how they work. Can someone explain to him because my head hurts!  scam 

[Sir Puntalot]

For our friend @escou(The Scam Hunter)  

Jack and Jill (I know she wasn't in it) & The Ratings Beanstalk

So basically, there was this giant beanstalk and Jack and Jill were bored, so they thought "We should totally climb up and see what's there"  

Jack was keen as mustard so he jumped straight on and got off at Level 1 and had a look around. Jack loves football and always thought, wouldn't it be great to know the "true reflection" of a match after it had been played, so he began brainstorming on Level 1.

Meanwhile Jill, the sneaky little madam she is, went up to Level 2 - no messing around. She had a look through the lingerie dept but didn't like anything. She was also thinking how much she loved football and how wonderful it would be to be able to predict matches based on a formula and also started brainstorming.

Much brainstorming later....

Jill reckons she has the basis of a good formula and goes and sees what trouble Jack is creating on Level 1. Well, holy shit, Jack has been a busy boy!  

Jack has created a formula which he has named "Performance Ratings", a carefully weighted formula but logical, and it gives a true reflection of the match, giving each team a rating. Jack being the genius that he is, he also thought "Hang on I'm way more of a genius than this", so he decided to put a gold star next to the teams that were ahead on the ratings, to show they outperformed the other team on the ratings, but didn't win the match. Nicely done Jack!  

However, Jill was very impressed by this but she felt she could go one better (don't all girls?) and she decided to compile her own ratings that would predict matches before they played, sooooo much better than Jack's ratings! To do this though, she needed to take Jack's ratings to complete this monumental, world changing task.

Jill decided that her ratings would be called "Prediction Ratings" and she would have a last 4 match average, and a last 2 match average which would help predict matches. However, Jill had no formula, so she had to take Jack's Performance Ratings to do this using the last 4 and last 2 match averages and right there and then the "Prediction Ratings" were born.

By the way, Jack and Jill fancied the arse off each other and made lots of babies, which have created more ratings which you will soon see - oh and they all lived happily ever after.  

 

[StevieDay1983]

3 hours ago, neilovan said:

In the EPL last 7 games Hull are the worst team. They have 1 point out of 21. Then come Swansea and Sunderland (2 points).

Hull have not been losing games. They have been getting smashed. They have lost their last 5, all by at least a 2 goal margin. See more of the same today at Watford. If you consider that Sunderland and Hull, will be awful this season, it will really be 1 other team relegated. Low 30 points will probably be safe. It will also mean a slightly higher points total for the Premier league winner, simply because you have two (Aston Villa's) this season.

Mourinho has so many problems at United, but surely the easiest one is to find a decent place to live, and hire a cook. The man earns 11 million a year. Stop being such a cheapskate !! Being in hotels for months at a time is soul destroying (this I know 1st hand). Find a place that gives you private, tranquil space, and spend some money on a bed that gives you a perfect nights sleep. This is basic stuff.

For me United dropping 2 points against Stoke, was far worse than losing to Chelsea. Chelsea away tough game ! Stoke at home, with the form they were in .... gimme 3 points.  No value on United to win but the over 2.5 goals looks good.

 

 

See, I'm not convinced by over 2.5 goals for Manchester United games right now, @neilovan. Three of their last four league games have been under 2.5 goals and have been really dour matches. It would have been four out of four had Chelsea not been on fire in that other game.

I agree, United have deep-rooted problems and I think the ownership and chief executive are to blame for that. I'm still not convinced Jose is the right fit. United should have gone for Klopp when they had the chance.

[mrclubbie]

Just to share, may not be accurate

Info from the season's 3 relegated teams, their performance in their 1st 10 matches, and points gotten from the 1st 10 matches

[andrewcalo]

Bookies gonna get raped this week lol 

[andrewcalo]

I think the next three games, two away wins one home win.

[mrclubbie]

Any ideas for Stoke game ?

[kulikTS]

Are there any chances to break for Everton? For me HW is possible.