The New Manager Theory

[Sir Puntalot]

Ok, so we've had the article written many years ago that proved there was something in it, but usually only for the first match as written by our member @footy4cast here https://www.punterslounge.com/guides/new-manager-betting (re-written by myself as I believe it was much longer)

Here I'll list all new managers for the season and whether they won or lost their first match. If I miss any appointments, please feel free to reply below.  

Results to come later.

[Sir Puntalot]

These are the results for the UK leagues only for this season.

Appointments made Pre Season - First Home Game (League Only)

July 22nd - Mike Phelan (Hull) - Won 4.75 + 3.75pts

July 23rd - David Moyes (Sunderland) Lost -1.00pts

July 30th - Walter Zenga (Wolves) Won 2.38 +1.38pts

More later...



 

[footy4cast]

On 10/22/2016, 12:15:26, Sir Puntalot said:

Ok, so we've had the article written many years ago that proved there was something in it, but usually only for the first match as written by our member @footy4cast here https://www.punterslounge.com/guides/new-manager-betting (re-written by myself as I believe it was much longer)

Here I'll list all new managers for the season and whether they won or lost their first match. If I miss any appointments, please feel free to reply below.  

Results to come later.

Hi Sirpuntalot - just a reminder my original article did not include caretaker managers. Just permanent appointments...Let see how it goes 12 years down the line

[Sir Puntalot]

8 minutes ago, footy4cast said:

Hi Sirpuntalot - just a reminder my original article did not include caretaker managers. Just permanent appointments...Let see how it goes 12 years down the line

Oh and that's me "Paul" just felt like a change of username.  Comments noted.

[StevieDay1983]

Wonder if there is a way in the future how a similar type of research could be done to see how long a new manager needs between being appointed and having their first game to get the best results. So is an appointment a few days before a game better than an appointment at the start of a 2 week break between matches during the international break, for example.

[footy4cast]

3 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Wonder if there is a way in the future how a similar type of research could be done to see how long a new manager needs between being appointed and having their first game to get the best results. So is an appointment a few days before a game better than an appointment at the start of a 2 week break between matches during the international break, for example.

I am working on something at the moment that is looking at the period in the season when a new manager starts in terms of seasonal quartiles (including pre-season) . Yours is a good idea. Let me see if I can find a way to include this in the stats without me having to do it manually....Good idea though.

[footy4cast]

6 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Oh and that's me "Paul" just felt like a change of username.  Comments noted.

LOL... you maverick !

[WinningAdvice]

Kindly share it here when your 'works' are done. They seem interesting.

[StevieDay1983]

On 25/10/2016, 17:51:20, footy4cast said:

I am working on something at the moment that is looking at the period in the season when a new manager starts in terms of seasonal quartiles (including pre-season) . Yours is a good idea. Let me see if I can find a way to include this in the stats without me having to do it manually....Good idea though.

That's great news. Look forward to your findings. I think changing manager is now such a massive aspect of a season but it can have equally positive and negative effects. At face value it can feel like a random outcome but hopefully with some more research you can find some patterns to help us work out who to back when a team changes gaffer!