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CzechPunter

October 24 - October 30

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Here's my bet card:

Mahut/Lorenzi O22 1.909

Sousa/Cuevas O22.5 1.917

Sousa -1 2.030

Short parley - Thiem 2-0/Murray 2-0 1.728

Really liking Sousa here. He's been playing well on hard court this year. All those dudes hit the O22 on a regular basis. Should see a fair amount of breaks in Sousa/Cuevas and a fair amount of holds in Mahut/Lorenzi. Good chance for TB in that match.

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One more parlay. These lines are too big for these guys but you never know at this time of year if they're gonna go for it or not. Considering their ranks and current form, I think all these guys want to make the next round if they can and their opposition is definitely beatable. Let alone cover a 1 break spread per set.

Delbonis +4.5/Baghdatis 4.5/Lorenzi 4.5 +3.050

Edited by BuffChestmen
Wrong odds format.

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Murray to Not Win @ +133

Anyone else like this bet? I'm not sure if I'm going to take it but looking at his draw, it's pretty crappy for a 500 series. He'll face no one out side the top 40. Klizan, Simon, Pouille, Thiem or Anderson (who plays like a top 20) or Edmond then Tsonga in the Final. This could be too much work for what it's worth especially since he has the Masters next week. Not to say Murray isn't capable or this is too much for him, I just think his route from Weds-Sunday will be hard matches and then a day of travel and away he goes into Paris. He might lighten up near the end of the tournament and someone like a hungry Thiem (who's actually been off lately) or Edmond (who's hot) or Tsonga, gets the better. It's the kind of tournament he can afford to lose especially since he took Shanghai and China, he's over a 1000 point up from last year and anything he gets here is a bonus.

Thoughts?

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@BuffChestmen What you're saying about Murray makes a lot of sense, but he looked very determined in Asia and I think that he's convinced himself that he's the world's number one and that he'll reach that spot by the end of the year. Can he do it? I don't know, but I think that he'll play his heart out to win this week.

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4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

@BuffChestmen What you're saying about Murray makes a lot of sense, but he looked very determined in Asia and I think that he's convinced himself that he's the world's number one and that he'll reach that spot by the end of the year. Can he do it? I don't know, but I think that he'll play his heart out to win this week.

You're the second dude to make this same case that Murray is more likely motivated to go full tilt. I think it makes more sense to take it easy but when more than one guru is telling me different I listen.

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I decided to take:

Tsonga to Win Vienna at 9.60.

 

These are one of the fastest courts and that helps Tsongas game. He also got a great draw with only RBA in the QF to really worry about but again, the quick court helps Tsonga especially against RBA. No more Berdych means there's no one really left to threaten his chance at a final. If he's going to beat Murray its in a best of 3, on fast courts, in a smaller tournament. At +860, there's loads of room to hedge as the tournament winds down.

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Against Radwanska in WTA Singapore, Muguruza is not without a chance.  With initial odds of 3 and now drops slightly, it represents value for me to place a moneyline bet on Mugu.  She played well against Pliskova 2 days ago in Singapore forcing a 3rd set and lost 7-5 with her head held high.  Since everyone agrees that Pliskova K. is one of the in-form players in Singapore, credit has to go to Mugu for putting up a good fight.  Contrary to the in-form Pliskova, Radwanska lost to an exhausted Kuznetsova who had just won in Moscow and made a tiring 10-hour flight to Singapore before playeing Radwanska in less than 24 hours! 

Edited by Robinnho
typo error

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Guest

Jurgen Melzer to beat Albert Ramos Vinolas @1,77 pinnaclesports

I went went with Melzer against Bautista already, both to win the match and 2:0 in sets and got away lucky in the second set. Anyway, I watched the entire match and Melzer was playing like it is life/death situation and there is nothing better to watch than your player giving more than 100% on the court, especially in these days when I have feeling that many players are loosing on purpose, from one or another reason. Melzer was also born and raised in Vienna, I am sure he knows the these courts very well, he has a nice crowd behind him, a lot of experience, solid serve... And the most important, he has a best possible opponent (14-37 indors career record), caly court specialist, very similar to Bautista, but weaker in all aspects of the game. :) I am pretty sure he takes this match.

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Andy Murray (-5.5 games) to beat Gilles Simon @ 2.11 Marathonbet

Murray should win this with room to spare, but rather than take the unders on the total games line I'm playing this instead. Even though the price is higher, I actually prefer it because Murray could cover this line even if he has a lapse like the one he had against Klizan. If Klizan can take a set against Murray then there's no reason Simon can't, but I don't hold out much hope that the Frenchman can do much more than that. He's poor on serve, Murray is great on return and on top of that motivated to take this title and move closer to the top of the rankings.

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6 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Basilashvili wanted to lose the match against Khachanov as he checked out mentally and totally imploded. What a worthless player Basilashvili can be.

Was a weird one alright. Serving 5-2 up and then was just like "yea na, think I'm done for today boys" 

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42 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Didn't see that one, so can't comment, but Halep is injured by the looks of things.

If Halep can get through this set might be nice to hedge on Cibulkova for match. Halep just needs to secure herself the set I think? 

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Guest

Victor Troicki to beat David Ferrer @2,05 pinnaclepsorts

I watched Troicki against Thiem and I was surprised by his game. Serve was rock solid, when in trouble he always somehow found his first serve, saved all break points... In fact it was very frustrating for the home crowd. :) And the return game was as good as it could be against agressive Thiem. On top of that he Beat Nadal in Sanghai or Bejing who is the best approximation of Ferrer's game. He should have plenty opportunities tonight. Ferrer on the other hand, nothing special, I didn't have time to watch him play, but his form this year is below HIS average, he only beat few solid players (Isner, Ramos, Fognini, Cuveas, Lopez and Zverev)... I guesss you can't compete against mother nature, years are catching up on him... And the fact that this is played indors will give Troicki great advantage on serve.

And how on Earth Melzer lost from 6:3 2:0 up in the second set and 6:3 4:3 with serve? He lost all 9 consecutive games! :O

@CzechPunter I like Kuznetsova as well, will follow you on that one. :)

Edited by Guest

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