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Brazil Serie A > Oct 12th - 14th

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Santa Cruz battling for survival and the ratings have them clearly ahead, but they are a long way from survival too. Corinthians are on a bad run but have run into some good teams all at once, so it makes it a tough call.

Santa Cruz Double Chance @ 2.15 Bet365 is a decent bet, but I think:

Both Teams To Score @ 2.00 Skybet is the best bet and I'm surprised it's odds against.

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12 hours ago, the bastardian said:

Santa Cruz Recife - Corinthians

The Santa Cruz is virtually relegated, have big financial problems with the players and members of the technical staff who are not paid for months. The race will not be held in Recife but in the Arena Pantanal in the city of Cuiabá state capital of Mato Grosso State to more than 3,000 km from Recife, and is the second consecutive away match in just four days. As for the Corinthians they are winless in their last five races but they have three days more rest than their opponent and are fighting for a place in the Copa Libertadores.

corinthiams 2 bf

Nice tip there. Appreciate it. Looking forward to more of your selections :)

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Brazil Serie A: Atletico Mineiro - America Mineiro

I previewed Atletico's last start, a visit to Corinthians .........

"Corinthians form has nosedived, they looked firm title contenders through the first 14 games, had 28 points in the bag and were in second place, they have taken just 13 points from the last 14 and are down in 7th, seven points off Copa Libertadores pace and with six teams above them. They might soon be in a position where it will all be about the Copa do Brasil for them and it is possible they will play and might already be doing so, with less caution than we usually expect. AMG are third, four points clear of Santos in 4th and can afford to gamble at present and look to push on for the title. They are currently five adrift of leaders Palmeiras, but have still to host them and a late challenge is far from off the table . They collected 20 points from their first 14 starts, a whopping 32 from the second, which is a 27 point swing with Corinthians and if they had played at this level from the get-go, they would hold a seven point lead at the top of the table, which illustrates how well they have played since, well, mid June, since when they have collected more points than anyone.

They are fast starters on the road and have a +6 first half goal difference.

AMG are without defensive midfielder Rafael Carioca tonight, he is away with the national team, but the visitors are 6-1-0 in Serie A starts without him. His absence is offset , IMO, by Corinthians losing right back Fagner , they lost 2-0 at home to Palmeiras in the last game he missed with replacement Leo Principe being run ragged and eventually getting sent off after two yellow cards.

They drew that 0-0, a result which leaves them in third, 4 and 7 points respectively behind Flamengo and Palmeiras with nine rounds left to play. Third carries with it a place in the Copa Libertadores group stage, but 4th-6th will now get you in to the first stage and that does ease the pressure. Also, the top two both have difficult games today and Atletico have still to host both, so it would be very early to give up on title ambitions.

America are booked for a quick return to the second tier after promotion last season and are 13 points from safety and propping up the rest of Serie A. However, we can surely expect them to be up for this, in their last derby game of the season and if they can end Atletico's title ambitions, that would be a bonus.

However, 32 points separate these two, which is more than 1.1 per game and is a true reflection of the difference in quality and Atletico are taking this incredibly seriously and given the home side full respect. There was talk of their four international players being eased back, but Lucas Pratto, Rafael Carioca, Cazares and Erazo have all been rushed back from CONMEBOL World Cup action and go straight into the squad.

America have conceded two or more goals in 6 of their last 7 starts without keeper Fernado Leal who is suspended and come into this game additionally weakened defensively. They will have to open up at some stage and Atletico can make it 3/3 at home to bottom four teams by a 3-0 scoreline.

Atletico MG -1.25 goals 2.0 asian line/Sportmarket

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  • @clubgowi With you all the way, it looks a straight forward win. I really like to go -1 on the Asian Handicap with what I see as bankers now. They're more value and more often than not, if they win it's by 2 or more and around double the odds. ;) 

Atletico MG -1 @ 1.68 BetVictor

More here https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/football

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Gremio v Atletico PR

This bet is a bit more speculative than normal, but there's good reasons behind it. Gremio have a pretty good rating at home, but they're struggling to put their chances away. AP are poor away from home all season, but on 4 out of the last 5 away matches only lost 1-0.

I can see AP trying to shut up shop with the occasional counter, and with Gremio struggling to score goals at the moment we could end up with a rare 0-0 result in Brazil.

Correct Score 0-0 @ 7.50 Skybet

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Sao Paulo v Santos

Santos are flying high but their away record is poor with 4 losses in last 5 aways. On the last 4 averages Sao Paulo have a clear advantage and they are also relying heavily on their home form to stay away from the drop zone.

The price on the win is tempting, but with a draw looking dangerous, I'll take the safety first option.

Sao Paulo (Level Ball Asian Handicap) @ 1.83 BetVictor

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8 minutes ago, winnerwinner said:

Any reason why no one is looking at the Palmeiras game? Best team in the league with great home record paying 1.85 against Cruzeiro whose away form isn't great and so far a mid table team.


Haven't had chance to write that one yet, but as you can see here https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/football I'm in total agreement. Great odds and they are totally flying.

1.91 @ Betfred - Yummy yum. :ok 

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It's probably because although they haven't lost, their last 5 matches haven't been so so compared to their earlier form. Single goal wins and a couple of draws. I don't tend to go looking for reasons not to back them if they're being generous over what I think the odds should be, I just back it. :ok 

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1 minute ago, Paul Ross said:

It's probably because although they haven't lost, their last 5 matches haven't been so so compared to their earlier form. Single goal wins and a couple of draws. I don't tend to go looking for reasons not to back them if they're being generous over what I think the odds should be, I just back it. :ok 

Fair enough. Now lets watch Palmeiras give Cruzeiro a nice thumping and watch the bookies go on all 4's and give them a hard thrust from behind. 

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