Championship > Oct 14th - 16th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

The Championship action is back this week after the international break so we can all breathe a sigh of relief. The action begins with a humdinger this Friday night when the Severnside Derby takes place at the Cardiff City Stadium. Can new Bluebirds manager Neil Warnock stop the prolific Tammy Abraham? Keen to hear where your bets are going on that match in particular. It will also be intriguing to see how the likes of managerless Aston Villa and Derby do. Both teams facing potentially tough opposition.

[Aristillus]

Now that Championship football is back after the rather banal and boring international break, I'd like to offer the following for perusal. It's a unique look at form for each team for the match they are to play. You can use it to make informed bets. It is currently running at a consistent accuracy of around 65% to 70%. That is 7 out 12.

The international break has upset momentum, and there have been changes to personnel, so you will have to factor these into your judgement.

   

Championship Form.xlsx

Edited October 12, 2016 by Aristillus

[Neubs]

Think with 3 new signings Cardiff made a good Job. Think they can stop Bristol City´s winning streak. They will not lose and so maybe Cardiff DNB is a good Bet. any Opinions to this interessting match?

[StevieDay1983]

As a Cardiff fan, I am very pleased with Warnock's appointment but think we need to exercise caution. The new signings will need time to get fit after being unattached for so long. I think we will most likely get a draw but it really depends how quickly the players respond to Warnock's methods. I think the defence will get tighter but Tammy Abraham is such a threat. Most importantly, this is the Severnside Derby so, personally, I'd stay clear of it. It's just as likely we will win 3-0 that Bristol City will win 3-0.

[Aristillus]

The form graph I provided earlier suggests the following:

Cardiff - Away Win : Result - Home Win

Forest - Away win : Result - Home Win

Barnsley - Away win : Result - Away Win

Blackburn - Away Win : Result - Draw

Brighton - Home Win : Result - Draw

Derby - Away Win : Result - Home Win

Newcastle - Home Win - Result - Home Win

Norwich - Home Win - Result - Home Win

QPR - Away Win : Result - Draw

Wigan - Home win : Result - Draw

Aston Villa - Draw : Result - Draw

Huddersfield - Home win

This is why I hate international breaks, they upset the momentum gathered by teams and tend to reset form. If Huddersfield win tomorrow, that will be 5 out of 12 correct. No good at all!

Regards

Edited October 15, 2016 by Aristillus

[Sir Puntalot]

If Cardiff didn't have a new manager, I'd be all over Bristol City at 2.50+ as they are WAAAAAY ahead on the ratings!  However, new managers have a big effect, you can read that here https://www.punterslounge.com/new-manager-betting  

 

 

[footy4cast]

I did that article 14 years ago Paul. I often wonder if it has changed much in that time? Maybe I will work on a new one sometime.

[Sir Puntalot]

28 minutes ago, footy4cast said:

I did that article 14 years ago Paul. I often wonder if it has changed much in that time? Maybe I will work on a new one sometime.

Hey mate, I doubt it because the logic behind it is solid, but would be interesting to see.  

 

[Aristillus]

...

new managers have a big effect...

I believe they do, but I also believe that to look for stark indicators showing immediate effect that they do will not be so forthcoming. The effect of a new manager is a sublime long-term effect, even if there there are indicators in the past that show a team to generally win the first game with a new manager in charge. You will see better indicators out of the season overall rather than at the start of the new relationship.

Ultimately, it is down to how the players as a team respond to the ideas and strategies of the new manager, and the confidence they have in him. With the first game in charge, most players will up their game in order to give a good impression, and even though form may be indicated to improve, the ability to keep improved form consistent shows whether or not the relationship is a good one.

A typical example is the game tonight between Cardiff and Bristol Rovers. Bristol will not go to Cardiff to follow the Cardiff script of having a new manager and new players, but to write their own script for an away win. I think the best Cardiff could do tonight would be to achieve a draw against a strong and in form Bristol City side, but if I was going to bet on this game, I would still go for the away win.

Cardiff - CTP = 15.7

Bristol City - CTP = 32.4

[footy4cast]

I believe they do, but I also believe that to look for stark indicators showing immediate effect that they do will not be so forthcoming. The effect of a new manager is a sublime long-term effect, even if there there are indicators in the past that show a team to generally win the first game with a new manager in charge. You will see better indicators out of the season overall rather than at the start of the new relationship.

@Aristillus...re the above. Actually that was not the case re the article I did above when comparing longer like for like manager tenures (i.e. 6 months of the previous manager to 6 months of the new manager) showed very little difference in average points per game (PPG)...In fact as the article states literally the only significant improvement that could be used from a betting perspective was the very first game.

@Paul...I agree the methodology was sound. However my gut feel is that there is a significant difference all these years later in average manager tenures which may well make a difference theoretically.

 

Edited October 14, 2016 by footy4cast
Correction and additions

[Sir Puntalot]

Norwich v Rotherham

No great predictions here, it is what is. Norwich are light years ahead of Rotherham and can score goals for fun when in the mood. Norwich way ahead on the ratings, won their last 4 home games and Rotherham lost all 5 of their away games conceding 16 goals.

Norwich would have to turn up with their 5 a side team and paralytic after all being on the lash to not win this.

Norwich -1.5 @ 2.07 BetVictor

More here https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/football

[Kenton Schweppes]

The new manager effect was in evidence last night with a win for Cardiff, Stevie must be delighted. Got a lot of time for Warnock, he won us promotion here at Huddersfield 20 odd years ago, so he's alright by me. He has that uncanny knack of getting results wherever he goes.

Leeds seem to be a decent price down at Derby, I'm at a loss to explain Derby's form but 18/5 is generous on Leeds given they are in form, although not blistering form and given Derby are the lowest scorers in the league and lost last time out at home to Blackburn, one has to wonder why the bookies have them so highly priced, more whisky chasers?

Brentford are 5/1 up at Newcastle. Ok Newcastle are in form at the minute but they have lost 2 home games this season already to Huddersfield and Wolves and despite the 6-0 win down at QPR have they been that convincing? Just wonder if Brentford double chance at 6/4 is worth a dabble here. Sky Bet are also offering 13/2 on a group bet on Brentford on all 3 scores 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1.

 

[Sir Puntalot]

58 minutes ago, Kenton Schweppes said:

The new manager effect was in evidence last night with a win for Cardiff, Stevie must be delighted. Got a lot of time for Warnock, he won us promotion here at Huddersfield 20 odd years ago, so he's alright by me. He has that uncanny knack of getting results wherever he goes.

Leeds seem to be a decent price down at Derby, I'm at a loss to explain Derby's form but 18/5 is generous on Leeds given they are in form, although not blistering form and given Derby are the lowest scorers in the league and lost last time out at home to Blackburn, one has to wonder why the bookies have them so highly priced, more whisky chasers?

Brentford are 5/1 up at Newcastle. Ok Newcastle are in form at the minute but they have lost 2 home games this season already to Huddersfield and Wolves and despite the 6-0 win down at QPR have they been that convincing? Just wonder if Brentford double chance at 6/4 is worth a dabble here. Sky Bet are also offering 13/2 on a group bet on Brentford on all 3 scores 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1.

 

Agree Leeds are overpriced, but new manager effect situation again.