October 3 - October 9

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Back Lucas Pouille to beat Yen-hsun Lu at 1.53 with Skybet

Perhaps I'm missing something here and Lu obviously tends to be above his par in Asia, but let's treat Pouille with respect I would say. He had a massive US Open and he's already backed that up with a big tournament win, so I think that he should be ready to push on against a weaker opponent. Fatigue shouldn't be an issue either, as he didn't play last week.

Back Kyle Edmund to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez at 1.62 with Skybet

GGL is one of my favourite players, but he's been in such a rot lately that I'm not sure that he will recover until the end of this season. He's playing without much confidence and that's what's pulling him down, while Edmund seems to be on the opposite trajectory really. He had some bad matches in the Davis Cup, but he's already put that behind himself by qualifying for the main draw here, so I very much fancy his chances against the out-of-form Spaniard.

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Marcos Baghdatis to beat Marcel Granollers at 1.44 with Skybet

I reckon that it's important to take this at a bookie that doesn't void retirements, as Granollers retired from his previous match due to an injury, but the bottom line is that Baghdatis should be winning this much more often than not given the fast conditions and the season he's having. Still a chance for him to improve his rankings and he had a very good showing in the US Open, while Granollers has been pretty poor all year long really.

Back Shuai Zhang to beat Alison Riske at 1.70 with BetVictor

Both with surprising wins in the previous round, but Zhang with the more impressive one probably. She's the better player hands down imo and the home conditions should provide her with a decent boost as well, so I'm not convinced that Zhang should be priced above, say, 1.50 here.

[ogii55]

Krunic/Sinakova vs Mladenovic/Garcia 4.05 Pinnacle

Mladenovic/Garcia are on the top of the hill, but they are far better on clay. This year they struggled early on some hard court tournaments. Krunic and Sinakova are decent pair, that already scored a surprise win over Hingis/Coco last week. They are playing together in the last three weeks so they are well matched.

 

Wickmayer -Halep 6.00 Pinnacle

In the last three years Halep lost twice in the first round here. Now she starts directly from the second. Despite the good form she s 1:3 against Wickmayer, who gave just two games to Puig in the previous round. If Wickmayer's serve is working, she could stun Halep.

 

 

 

[showstas]

Albert Ramos Vinolas vs. Adrian Mannarino 2.05

Mannarino hasn't been in form and he hasn't beat anyone higher than world rank #100 within the last few months whereas Albert Ramos is playing the best tennis of his life.  I see value here on Ramos.

[four-leaf]

Daria Gavrilova to beat Timea Bacsinszky at 2.00 for a 8/10 stake with bet365

Daria had a quite hard match last time against Christina Mchale but she came through and her form is good enough to beat Timea as she's done on clay last season in Rome in straight sets where both players broke each others serve lots of times, acctually 4 times for Timea and 5 times for Daria and Daria won 6-4 7-6. Christina Mchale and Daria had a break party going on also in their match here in Beijing but that was probably more about quality of play then about bad play from both players since Christina Mchale won her first title recently and should still be playing quite well. Timea got to the final last year in Beijing but I doubt she will get that far this time. Her form is not as good as it was back then so I think I have to give it a try to go against her in this match.

Edit: By giving Daria only evens is a hint from the market that there is a decent chance that Daria will win the match even though she is rankad 49 and Timea 15.

Edited October 4, 2016 by four-leaf
Hint

[CzechPunter]

Back Albert Ramos to beat Adrian Mannarino at 2.10 with Skybet

Ramos might obviously be tired and that's the big risk here, but we're getting a premium price thanks to that and I'm willing to take it all things considered. He's the better player of the two, he's got the better form and he's also already beaten Mannarino in this very season, so 2.10 looks worth it to me.

Back Juan Monaco to beat James Duckworth at 1.62 with Skybet

Still worth it at this price imo, Monaco is by far the classier player and Duckworth's win over Lopez was worthless really, as the Spaniard was injured and had to retire (he then also retired from the doubles, so it wasn't something minuscule). Not much to add here really, only that I was really disappointed by Duckworth's progress in this season, as I hoped that he would break the top 80 or so.

[CzechPunter]

Back Lucas Pouille to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 1.91 with Skybet

Dimitrov might be the bigger name, but that really is about it imo. While he's dropped down over the last year or so, Pouille has improved massively and I'd even dare to say that he's already the better player of the two when you take everything into consideration. All in all, I'd have the Frenchman as a decent favourite here.

[CzechPunter]

Back Daria Gavrilova to beat Elina Svitolina at 2.38 with Skybet

Svitolina has a certain habit of under-performing after a big win and that's what could easily happen in her match against Gavrilova imo, as she'll be going into it after a massive victory over Kerber. Gavrilova has some good wins of her own, however, and she's 3-1 against the Ukrainian (3-0 this year), so I quite fancy taking her at these odds.

Back Gilles Muller (+2.5) to beat Nick Kyrgios at 2.10 with Paddy Power

The +2.5 handicap would be fair at 1.83, but I have to take it above evens. Muller is serving so well this week and the conditions are helping his game so much that I can definitely see him troubling Kyrgios. The Australian is the better player, of course, but he will get frustrated if Muller serves well and I'm also not sure how focused he'll be after getting the walk-over past Stepanek, so taking Muller on the games handicap looks interesting to me.

[ogii55]

Lipovsek Puches Tomas - Carlos Berlocq, win for Lipovsek at 7.02 Pinnacle

 

Lipovsek is showing very nice tennis. He is winning on singles and doubles. Berlocq is not at his best and is playing very safe. He had some personal problems and I am not sure if his concentration will be 100%. He is huge favorite here, but I don't think such odds are appropriate.

 

[tomagio]

4 hours ago, ogii55 said:

Lipovsek Puches Tomas - Carlos Berlocq, win for Lipovsek at 7.02 Pinnacle

 

Lipovsek is showing very nice tennis. He is winning on singles and doubles. Berlocq is not at his best and is playing very safe. He had some personal problems and I am not sure if his concentration will be 100%. He is huge favorite here, but I don't think such odds are appropriate.

 

Hi, first of all great insides, i followed you recent bets but unfortunatelly non of them was a winner. What is your strike rate or something? Don't take it offensive

[CzechPunter]

Can't see anything from the main tournaments, so...

Back Varatchaya Wongteanchai to beat Shilin Xu at 2.38 with BetVictor

Good odds for Wongteanchai here imo. I realize that most punters have never heard about her, but she's a competent player and she's finally getting back to where she once was by the looks of things, while Xu has done absolutely nothing since the end of the clay court season. This looks like a coin-flip to me at the very worst.

[liquidglass]

Something worries me  deeply. The forum is clearly in miserable form and perhaps in desperate mode. Wonteanchai is no new face and one I believe most afficionados will know well especially as she has a sister on tour too. Here is my take; the fact that Wonteanchai who seems to be in sort of positive form is priced so closely with this Chinese girl who seems to have done absolutely nothing. Worse still is the fact that it was also the only match I took interest in of the whole list- and I thought same. (Recipe for disaster) The Chinese has a consistent and annoying habit of doing well in their home tournaments against even top seeded players. This has to be really close. I reckon 2-1 to the home girl and me thinks the right bet would have been for Wonteanchai to win a set at least. Three sets for certain here. Good luck all!

[CzechPunter]

Wanted to back Murray, but he did look a bit tired against Ferrer, so it's only this again...

Back Varatchaya Wongteanchai to beat Andrea Hlavackova at 2.60 with BetVictor

I backed Wongteanchai in the previous round and I'm willing to do so again, as Hlavackova remains a mess despite her win over Soylu. Yes, that was a good win by all kinds of standards, but it doesn't make her an excellent player and I can see her just falling apart in the very next round. At 1.90, I wouldn't be backing Wongteanchai here, but she is a must-bet for me at 2.60.

[ogii55]

On 7.10.2016 г.,, tomagio said:

Hi, first of all great insides, i followed you recent bets but unfortunatelly non of them was a winner. What is your strike rate or something? Don't take it offensive

As you already mentioned, my recent form is not the best. I am playing mostly big odds, but I am not doing so well. Sorry for that...