Weekend Non-League and FA Cup 1st/2nd October

[Darran]

Boreham Wood v Wrexham

Somehow Gary Mills is still in a job despite the fact Macclesfield beat them 3-0 on Tuesday night. Macclesfield dominated the game as well and Wrexham looked desperate. I thought he would be sacked if he lost that, but he gets another chance against Boreham Wood. It doesn't look an easy game though as the home side have only lost two of their 12 games this term and are unbeaten in their last five. Now they have drawn half their matches, including three of their last four, but I think they were good efforts as they drew with Aldershot and Barrow who are both above them in the table. The other draw was against Solihull last Saturday, but they had come of the back of two very good draws themselves. It is also worth pointing out they beat Dagenham five games ago as well. They look a stronger side than Wrexham and the 13/10 about a home win with Marathon is well worth taking. I am sure even Wrexham fans wouldn't mind losing as surely it would be the end of Mills' reign.

 

Forest Green Rovers v Barrow

The prices here make little sense given it is 2nd v 3rd. Barrow put in a superb performance to beat Lincoln in their last away game and then landed the Nap bet for us last Saturday against York. They look genuine promotion contenders and there is noway they should be as big as Marathon's 22/5. FGR are obviously a good side and they are unbeaten at home, but some of their performances haven't been that convincing. They only beat Bromley and Braintree 1-0 in their last two matches and both of those are in for a relegation scrap this season. They will have to raise their game against Barrow and although I would still have them as favourites it makes little sense to have them long odds on. Barrow should be around the 15/8 mark so they have to be a play at the prices as they have a good chance of gaining the 3 points.

 

York v Aldershot

Granted York’s home form is strong having only lost the once and Aldershot have only won once away, but I have to back Aldershot at just over 2/1 with Marathon. York look low on confidence at the moment and like Wrexham the fans probably wouldn’t be too upset to lose this one as they want their manager to leave as well. Aldershot have drawn half of their away matches, but their win did come at Dover so they can put in a good away performance. The basic stats suggest Aldershot will find this tough to win, but Aldershot have much the better side and York do look there for the taking at the moment. The crucial thing though is the price is big enough to take a chance that Aldershot can bring their home form to an away game as they did against Dover.

 

Altrincham v Morpeth

The home side are still to win in the league and just beat Gainsborough in the previous round. Jim Harvey is still struggling to turn the team around since becoming manager and this looks a very tricky FA Cup tie for them. They face last season’s FA Vase winners Morpeth

who beat Blyth Spartans 4-2 in the previous round. Given Blyth were top of the Evo-Stik Northern Premier at the time and Altrincham are currently bottom of the National League North there isn’t much difference between those two sides. Morpeth come from the strongest Step 5 league in the country and they look worth backing at BetVictor’s 4/1 to cause another upset.

 

North Leigh v Folkestone

It is surprising that Folkestone are such big favourites for this game. The Ryman Premier side aren’t in the best of form at the moment and are currently mid-table. North Leigh play at the level below, but are only just outside the play-offs in the Evo-Stik Southern Division One South & West. They have won five of their league nine league games and are unbeaten in their last 5. With home advantage I think they will fancy their chances here and the 85/40 with BetVictor looks on the large side.

 

Slough v Dartford

Slough were a massive price to win the Evo-Stik Southern Premier before the season started, but they are making a mockery of those odds as they top the table having won 9 of their 11 league games and only losing once. I think they will be bang their come the end of the season and this could be a league fixture next term. Dartford will be a good test for the home side as they are just outside the play-offs in the National League South, but they are much better at home than they have been away and Slough have the advantage of a 3G pitch. I think Slough are up to winning this and I would have them shorter than BetVictor’s 2/1.

 

FA Cup acca

I was unfortunate not to land a decent 6 fold in the previous round and this time I am looking to land a 4 fold which pays just over 5/2 with BetVictor. Burgess Hill should have too much for lowly Cadbury Heath. Eastbourne did us a big favour in the last round and they look to have a gift of a draw against Hadley. I am surprised to see St Albans are only 1/2 to beat Worthing at home as St Albans are going really well in the league compared to Worthing who aren’t. The final team are Hampton & Richmond who are going great guns in the National League South and travel to a Taunton side who are mid-table to levels below.

[bromsgrovegreen]

I will definitely be taking st albans minus 1 against worthing which will be around 11-10  I suspect. I had havant minus 1 midweek against worthing but aftet giving the visitors a two goal lead they could only win 3-2, st albans though are a much better team than havant and if fully focused can bring this one home imo

 

[bromsgrovegreen]

Other fa cup games I'm interested in

Stourbridge 10-11 at Ilkeston, was hoping for a bigger price but I just think that Stourbridge are a much better team 

Staines 13-8 at chesham, staines unbeaten in 8 in all competitions and beat maidenhead last round

Kidderminster 4-5 at Lancaster, Lancaster had a superb win against Darlington last round but I don't think kiddy will slip up

Swindon supermarine, 11-4 at struggling welling, marine are flying high two levels below welling who haven't adjusted well to the national south

Got to be on Morpeth as well as addpea after his write up as well as Borehamwood!!

 

 

Edited September 30, 2016 by bromsgrovegreen
mistake

[bromsgrovegreen]

Anyone know why ashton are 11-4 at home to Coalville in the northern prem? I know the ashton management team and a few players defected to Stalybridge recently but this price seems big unless theres been a mass exodus in the last few days. I'll have to have a look into this one

One final play for me is hitchin away to cirencester 11-10, hitchin have been inconsistent so far this season but look a good price against managerless cirencester

 

Just looked and ashton have a depleted team at the moment with a lot of injuries 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2016 by bromsgrovegreen

[bromsgrovegreen]

No interest in Gloucester at evens addpea? Whats your thoughts on the relative strengths of the north and south leagues? Most people I speak to reckon that the north is the stronger league but I've never seen any national south games so cant comment

 

 

[Darran]

Cirencester aren't managerless anymore as Charlie Griffin was announced as their new manager earlier in the week. As for us when the draw came out I was happy as Hemel had had a poor start to the season, but that was a good win in midweek and think it's 6 unbeaten in the league now. We have a pretty good record against teams in the south since we have been at this level but think this will be pretty close and we are too short a price in my view. I was actually surprised to see how short we were. 

[Darran]

4 hours ago, bromsgrovegreen said:

I will definitely be taking st albans minus 1 against worthing which will be around 11-10  I suspect. I had havant minus 1 midweek against worthing but aftet giving the visitors a two goal lead they could only win 3-2, st albans though are a much better team than havant and if fully focused can bring this one home imo

 

I'm not sure you will see any handicap prices as there weren't any in the previous round. 

[Darran]

5 hours ago, bromsgrovegreen said:

I will definitely be taking st albans minus 1 against worthing which will be around 11-10  I suspect. I had havant minus 1 midweek against worthing but aftet giving the visitors a two goal lead they could only win 3-2, st albans though are a much better team than havant and if fully focused can bring this one home imo

 

Happy to be wrong as loads of markets available on the fa cup matches and 13/10 available on st albans which I might take as well. 

[tictok]

hello,addpea

what do you think about hampton -1,5 @2,15 that my local bookie offers? last round they won 7-1 and I hope they could do it again.

[4p5p.]

Needham to beat Met Police - 6th v 24th  Maidstone one defeat in six , Solihull no wins in seven. Stones doing not bad this season and with the gaffer being linked to the Orient job. Things are on the up in the Medway town and i just feel they will have a little too much for the Brum outfit.

2pt Double Needham Market & Maidstone - 3.02

1pt Treble Needham Market , Maidstone & Dover  - 6.99

 

[Darran]

2 hours ago, tictok said:

hello,addpea

what do you think about hampton -1,5 @2,15 that my local bookie offers? last round they won 7-1 and I hope they could do it again.

Doubtful they will score 7 again as a team scoring 7 is fairly rare. A decent chance though of them overcoming the handicap if they play like they have been.

[sap]

I didnt have much time to analyse deeply.I fancy rushall,southport and buxton.Hope we can get a profitable weekend.