2018 World Cup Qualification South American Section

49 posts in this topic

This are the kind of matchdays that are difficult to analyse. Last matches were played back in November and in 5 months a lot can change. Brazil who were struggling in March last year, changed their coach and are currently on a 6 match winning streak, Argentina was struggling in the last matches but they beat Colombia at home 3-0. Peru in August had absolutely no chance to qualify to the WC but some luck and a massive win away against Paraguay have given them a minuscule chance to go to Russia. The table is quite tight in the middle; just 6 points between the third and the eight so if some teams (Peru Paraguay) don't get the results they need in these two matches they will probably be saying goodbye to Russia. Brazil is virtually qualified to the WC given that 27 points would have been enough to qualify directly in the past quaifiers and they still have 6 matches to play... The same could be said for Uruguay, 23 points 6 games to play and 3 of them against Peru Bolivia and Venezuela... just a disaster would eliminate them...

Regardind this round,

Colombia-Bolivia

Colombia should beat Bolivia with relatively ease, Bolivia have been terrible during the qualifiers winning just 3 matches and one of them was given as a 3-0 defeat afterwards because they fielded a player that wasn't allowed to play!!!!!! So things are definitely not going well for them, also their record away is a disgrace. Losing 5 and drawing 1, a match they would lose as they field the same player... Bolivia have just scored 1 goal away in 6 matches and have conceded 16 goals (not counting those 3 against Chile) On the other hand Colombia have just won 5 of the last 15 points and that have made them lose some ground in the race to russia. They have to win this match in order to regain the 4-5 place. The match will be played in Baranquilla where it's extremely hot and humid and they always schedule their matches between 15-17 local time when the sun is stronger. It seems Falcao will miss these matches but Colombia have a strong team and when they're in the mood they play good football. Also their goal difference stands at 0 and in case of tie, it's the GD that determines who goes ahead.

I think the more sensible bet in this match is Colombia -2. Odds are around 1.85 but I still think there's some value, if they confirm Falcao is out, odds might drift a bit. A riskier option is Columbia -2.5 at around 2.30.

Paraguay-Ecuador 

I have little to say here, this is a win or die match for Paraguay. If they lose or draw they are virtually out. I don't fancy Ecuador when they play away and I have some doubts about Paraguay, 1 match won and 4 defeats in the last 5 doesn't give me confindence.

Uruguay-Brazil

The match of the round to me. The first and second will face each other. Brazil have reborn under Tite, they have won all their matches and they play good football. Uruguay have a flawless record at home and quality players like Cavani Suarez Godin. I like odds here because bookmakers have made Brazil favourites for this match. I just don't think they're. Uruguay is one of the best in South America, excellent players who always give everything in the matches. Now they are playing at home and to me this is an important factor. Given that bookies offer more than 2.00 on Uruguay DNB, I'll happily back it. A riskier option is to go on Uruguay to win at over 3. 

EDIT: suárez is suspended for this match, i had totally forgotten. this changes things, i might sit out of this match in terms of betting.

Argentina-Chili

Not much to say here, Argentina might have the best player in the world and some unreal strikers but they just don't give me confidence. They have lost against Ecuador and Paraguay at home....Chile won't have Vidal and Diaz so their midfield is weakened. It seems also that Alexis is having fitness issues... I don't think Chile can win but I'm not sure if Argentina can win this... If I have to pick a team, I'd side with Argentina but odds of 1.5 offer no value at all to me.

Venezuela-PeruAnother team with a win or die match. Peru is forced to win this match if they don't want to say goodbye to Russia. They have a terrible record away winning just one match since 2004. Last year they beat Paraguay away 4-1 playing a fantastic match, true is Peru have a decent team. Despite some shocking results in the qualifiers, they have managed to finish third in two of the last three Copa America and in the last one they were eliminated after a penalty shootout. This Peru team is mainly composed by young players that have some quality but they lack one big player that can turn things around. Regarding Venezuela, they showed an improvement lately, drawing at home against Argentina and obliterating Bolivia 5-0. They have 5 points so the only thing they fight for is to avoid being the last. To me it depends on what Peru turn up, if it's the same that faced Bolivia Uruguay and Chile first half, I think this will be an easy win for Venezuela if it's the same that played Paraguay current odds on Peru represent some value, I see this as an even match so if I had to pick a side it would be Peru.

If nothing big happens my main pick pick should be:

2 units on Colombia -2.5 at 2.30 (i'm still thinking bout this, would have prefered -2 but my bookie doesn't offer that option)

Good luck to you all

Edited by LePapo
immortal-- and Kunal888 like this

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I would have gone for Uruguay DNB too if Suarez is not suspended. Cavani is such a streaky striker. He will probably miss 5-6 chances before he can score a goal.

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I expect an open and free game and have many goals, since the two teams have the worst defenses in the group
VENEZUELA vs PERU @@ +2.25 Over, odds 1.90

Nice game both to watch and to bet on it, perhaps fighting the best two teams in the group with the two best defensive lines, I expect close game with few goals
URUGUAY vs BRAZIL @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.80

Paraguay home has 4 to 6 goal goal, Ecuador total has 10 to 12 over 2,5 and 5 to 6 goal goal away. I expect both teams score and concede goals in today expect to score a goal and confirm the Goals
PARAGUAY vs ECUADOR @@ Both team to score, odds 1.95

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Can Argentina save themselves?

Is Messi enough?

Hopefully my questions will be answered positively tomorrow. Haven't placed a bet on this one because my biases might cloud my decision.

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This Brazil team is different to the previous. Higher passing %, more passes, more average chances created per 90 (14 vs 12 prior) and no more Dunga.

Uruguay stated Brazil are the team to beat but when you look at Brazil's players, they are all formed and powerful.

Suarez out is a big miss but Cavani will probably score around the 30-45 mark.

Uruguay need to win to keep up the pressure on Brazil and stave Ecuador and Chile below them.

Nonetheless, I can't look past Brazil and the odds.

I don't buy into the under line when two under-ish teams play and same goes for over-ish teams.

My bet for this (and the only international bet for me this week) is Brazil to win and BTTS @ 4.5

I can see it ending 1-2 or 1-3.

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On 21/03/2017, 10:18:09, Duuc said:

I feel like Colombia will trash Bolivia

Argentina will win home at poor Chile. Chile without Vidal, which is their main power and drive in midfield and probably with sexy Alexy Sanchez, who has ankle problems. Argentina will have way too much firepower I think.

 

Anyone else any thoughts?

 

Yeah, I thought Chile would progress after their Copa America campaign but they have just gone backwards. Missing Vidal is key and unless they maintain their discipline they could lose by 3 or 4 goals. Venezula versus Peru is an interesting one. I can see Peru getting the win there to be honest.

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Tough Round i think. So i made only 2 small bets for todays games. First ist the Both2Score - Yes in Paraguay-Ecuador Game. This is only i don´t trust Paraguay here with a home win becuase Ecuador have some different options in Attacking. They have not this one Player who are from quality is much higher then all other players. They are good enough and bright enough in there offensive squad. But there defensive is not the best. 10-10 goals in away games are much and Paraguay for sure they know that they must win this if they want to go to World Cup. Heavy Fixtures coming up for Paraguay in next Games. So they must play also offensive. But i don´t trust here Paraguay - so i think this will be end in a 1:1 or 2:1/1:2.

Other bet are a combo from HC -1 win from Columbia and Argentina win. Argentina with some ups and downs every time this qualifaction round. Not much to say here to this team. Normaly the best in South-America. Chile without Vidal and Sanchez doubt  - who are also not in good Form and with Problems in Arsenal.

Paraguay-Ecuador Both2Score - Yes @ 1.95 3/10 bet365

Columbia HC-1+Argentina @ 1.95 4/10 tipico

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12 hours ago, Neubs said:

Tough Round i think. So i made only 2 small bets for todays games. First ist the Both2Score - Yes in Paraguay-Ecuador Game. This is only i don´t trust Paraguay here with a home win becuase Ecuador have some different options in Attacking. They have not this one Player who are from quality is much higher then all other players. They are good enough and bright enough in there offensive squad. But there defensive is not the best. 10-10 goals in away games are much and Paraguay for sure they know that they must win this if they want to go to World Cup. Heavy Fixtures coming up for Paraguay in next Games. So they must play also offensive. But i don´t trust here Paraguay - so i think this will be end in a 1:1 or 2:1/1:2.

Other bet are a combo from HC -1 win from Columbia and Argentina win. Argentina with some ups and downs every time this qualifaction round. Not much to say here to this team. Normaly the best in South-America. Chile without Vidal and Sanchez doubt  - who are also not in good Form and with Problems in Arsenal.

Paraguay-Ecuador Both2Score - Yes @ 1.95 3/10 >bet365

Columbia HC-1+Argentina @ 1.95 4/10 tipico

Columbia only with 1:0.... 

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On 3/23/2017, 10:50:14, KikoCy said:

This Brazil team is different to the previous. Higher passing %, more passes, more average chances created per 90 (14 vs 12 prior) and no more Dunga.

Uruguay stated Brazil are the team to beat but when you look at Brazil's players, they are all formed and powerful.

Suarez out is a big miss but Cavani will probably score around the 30-45 mark.

Uruguay need to win to keep up the pressure on Brazil and stave Ecuador and Chile below them.

Nonetheless, I can't look past Brazil and the odds.

I don't buy into the under line when two under-ish teams play and same goes for over-ish teams.

My bet for this (and the only international bet for me this week) is Brazil to win and BTTS @ 4.5

I can see it ending 1-2 or 1-3.

:cheers

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1.98 on Argentina now.. Quite valuable from my point of view. It's true that Hernando Siles stadium is on 3600m altitude, but anyway.

Edited by Pep004

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On 25-3-2017 08:20:41, Pep004 said:

1.98 on Argentina now.. Quite valuable from my point of view. It's true that Hernando Siles stadium is on 3600m altitude, but anyway.

Hi Pep, why did the odds rise so much? Any idea?

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I'm not too much in will to dig up about international matches, as it's probably most unpredicted (unexpected) football right here.. when all players, used to play totally different ways of football needs to play in same team, but I am cautios about this match anyway. :) 

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4 hours ago, Duuc said:

Hi Pep, why did the odds rise so much? Any idea?

Mascherano, Higuain, Otamendi and Biglia are out due to suspensions.
Maybe that's the reason why.

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also they are playing in altitude, it's never easy for teams that are used to play at sea level to go and perform well in bolivia, even if there's messi in the team. i remember years ago they lost 6-1 in bolivia... and to be honest argentina are playing really bad.. they beat chile 1-0 with a dodgy penalty and they ended up wasting time. if they were criticised by the press after losing three finals in a row now it's worse... coach says they are playing some good football but reality tells a different thing. 

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On 3/23/2017, 4:36:55, WinningAdvice said:

Can Argentina save themselves?

Is Messi enough?

Argentina are not in a position yet that they need to save themselves. They are 3rd in the table and the top 4 qualify directly.

Unfortunately Messi is not enough which is a great shame as for him to be spoken in the same light as legends of the past and even Ronaldo he needs to get an international trophy as it will always be a question mark over him even though that is not fully in his control and I don't think he will win anything with this Argentinean team considering his age.

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Peru scored and easily accepts the goal for this reason has 9 to 13 over 2,5 and 4 in last 5 games over 2,5 goals scored, Uruguay total counts 10 to 13 over 2,5 and six straight at most recently the games while away from home has 4 to 6 over 2,5, expect give it all to win, often make big scores
PERU vs URUGUAY @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.95

Interesting match between two possible groups assert claims to qualify, possess good aggressive lines and can score at least one goal
ECUADOR vs COLOMBIA @@ Both team to score, odds 1.90

Argentina needed to exploit the weaknesses of Bolivia and get a win to gain a significant advantage for the qualification
BOLIVIA vs ARGENTINA @@ ARGENTINA, odds 1.70

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I wasn't sure about Neymar up to now as looking at the from the typically 'English' style of football I thought he couldn't cope with a well organised physical defence but he is an expert at getting free kicks in dangerous areas and his delivery from set pieces and free kicks is incredible. I was looking at the system Brazil were playing and trying to come up with an effective counter strategy and I couldn't. They have too many weapons in their arsenal and they can come at you from any angle and can switch the play in a heartbeat.

Their defenders are very impressive and you can't get at them often with direct play and they are very good at defending set pieces. Every time Neymar got the ball last night a Paraguay defender took him out immediately, Couthinho was getting elbowed in the head, the fouls were done strategically closer to the halfway line than the box and Brazil still found a way to dominate the game and win 3-0 and isolate the Paraguay attackers quickly when they managed to start a counter.

Genuinely in awe, we will get to see a golden generation again. I'm less and less convinced with Firmino as he looks impressive but the end product is not there as often as I would like for a top class Brazilian international but there are options elsewhere. I'm excited to see what Gabriel Jesus can do if he gets an extended run in the Man City team.

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Brazil are looking good but for me they are still absolutely miles away from 'the golden generation'.

Let's see how they get on in Russia and that's taking nothing away from an amazing qualifying.

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