2018 World Cup Qualification South American Section

[StevieDay1983]

Odds provided by bet365.

It's the 7th round of matches in the CONMEBOL section of the 2018 World Cup qualification process. Uruguay and Ecuador are the surprise leaders in the table at the moment but both face tough opposition in Argentina and Brazil respectively.

The odds in the Ecuador versus Brazil game are particularly interesting. It is also intriguing to see 2016 Copa America winners Chile priced at 2.40 against an under-performing Paraguay.

Any bets taking your fancy here guys?

[winnerwinner]

Argentina -1

Brazil -1

Uruguay -1

3 teams multi

[StevieDay1983]

19 hours ago, winnerwinner said:

Argentina -1

Brazil -1

Uruguay -1

3 teams multi

Once again mate, let down by a result that was hard to see coming with Argentina being held by Venezuela! Venezuela almost came away with the win as well!

[StevieDay1983]

It is crazy to think we have reached round 9 of these qualifiers already. Only 5 points separate the top 7 teams in this group and it really is difficult to predict the outcome this time around because there have been so many freak results and performances already. I think now we are getting to the business-end of proceedings we can expect some of the big guns to start finding consistency. I am going to put my neck on the line here and predict wins for Chile, Uruguay, Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina this round. Chile are the ones that concern me the most but I think they will deliver.

[winnerwinner]

Small multi here for me.

Uruguay -1.5 + Over 8 corners Brazil game @ 2.95

[winnerwinner]

9 hours ago, winnerwinner said:

Small multi here for me.

Uruguay -1.5 + Over 8 corners Brazil game @ 2.95

Bet Lost

Uruguay won 3-0

Brazil game 3 corners....seriously wtf!!!! I thought this was an "easier" bet between the 2. I thought it would be 10-14 corners this game. Really disappointed.

 

[StevieDay1983]

The next round of games from the CONMEBOL section of qualification. Ecuador and Uruguay are the teams flying right now. I expect a solid win for Ecuador in Bolivia but it will be harder for Uruguay in Colombia. I can see Colombia getting the win here. Argentina need a win after that disappointing draw to Peru. Peru will be looking to build on that result but face a mammoth task away to Chile. Brazil should make light work of Venezuela. I'm tempted for a handicap in the Ecuador and Brazil games. The others are harder to call.

@winnerwinner, your bets weren't obscene at all so are you thinking of something similar this week? Surely, Brazil's game will have more than three corners this time! Haha.

[Neubs]

I´m going here for a Favorite Combo. Think all 3 Giants Brazil, Argentina and Chile will win this. Specially i don´t worry about the Chile game. Peru is bad travler with lost all 4 Games in Qualfication right now and scores 0 Goals. So for me nothing dangerous. Also i don´t think that Venezuela can be  made another Surprise after drawing 2-2 at home against Argentina here with Brazil. Also i think Argentina will also win this. Specially they must win it, because next 3 Games will be against Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

 

Brazil+Argentina+Chile @ 2.45 5/10 betfair

[winnerwinner]

Chile is a giant? As horrible as Peru is, Chile aren't that much better.

You might be right, Chile will probably win but for 1.36 I am staying away from it.

I am taking a little more risk but for the price, I think its worth the risk.

Argentina -1.5 + Brazil -1.5 for 3.85.

[Neubs]

23 hours ago, Neubs said:

I´m going here for a Favorite Combo. Think all 3 Giants Brazil, Argentina and Chile will win this. Specially i don´t worry about the Chile game. Peru is bad travler with lost all 4 Games in Qualfication right now and scores 0 Goals. So for me nothing dangerous. Also i don´t think that Venezuela can be  made another Surprise after drawing 2-2 at home against Argentina here with Brazil. Also i think Argentina will also win this. Specially they must win it, because next 3 Games will be against Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

 

Brazil+Argentina+Chile @ 2.45 5/10 >betfair

Argentina with very bad performance

[vasilli07]

Looking at Colombia and Uruguay this week. Chile form is pretty inconsistent and Medal is out for them. Read some news saying Vidal could be out as well. Both of them are the heart and soul of that team. As for Uruguay, they are really strong at home. Their last defeat was in 2009.

[StevieDay1983]

Yes, I have to agree about Chile. I didn't fancy them at all for the Copa America but they surprised. Think that's their peak though and I can't see them being a side that I would feel confident backing during this qualification campaign. Brazil and Argentina could well be a draw in my opinion. Argentina have had a very patchy start to the campaign and they are currently outside the qualification spots but they are a big game team. I think the win is just beyond them though.

[Pep004]

First of all I would like to say hi to everyone. I am new here, but old in this sports betting business. You can read more about me on my blog which is still in progress. Besides I see that you were talking about match between Columbia and Chile. I am somehow on Columbian's side, but what is problem now is that Alexis is out and even if it means that bet on Columbians should be even better, I don't like it that much. Why? Firstly, because odds are lower, and secondly because Chile will play very defensively trying to beat them with counter-attacks. Anyone who will play is capable to play in high tempo and if Columbians will try to attack "headless" they can easily concede goal and then it will be really tough to come back. Besides Columbia won against Chile only once in last seven meetings!

On the other hand, I am looking to odds on +0,5 of Argentina which looks quite jummy to me... 

 

PICK: Uruguay AH -0,75 @1,83 PINNACLE 3/10

Football / WC Qualifications / Kick off: 11 Nov 2016, 0:00

Uruguay is coming into match like 2nd placed team of qualifications, while Ecuador is sitting right behind with 3 points less. There is one notable difference between those two teams in this match and this is that Uruguay has no problems with getting 3 points at home: 3-0 Columbia, 3-0 Chile, 1-0 Peru, 4-0 Paraguay, 3-0 Venezuela; while Ecuador - even if they managed to get more than 50% points on away matches in those qualifiers, they didn't win in last 6 matches away from home. It's true that on 6th of October they managed big win against Chile at home (3-0), but 4 days later it was totally different against Bolivia where they played bore draw (2-2), equalising in second half after being behind 2-0. 

Oscar Tabarez, head coach of Uruguay said that Cavani rejected an offer to stay in Paris to recover from thigh injury and is fighting to be able to play qualification game against Ecuador. First match in Quito ended with win for Ecuador (2-1), so it's time for payback. Suarez is ready in good goalscoring form, and even if Uruguay will need to compete without first goalscorer in qualifications - Edison Cavani, they're still favourites in my eyes. 

Ecuador believes that they can surprise Uruguay once again, but they will need to do it without Antonio Valencia who injured his arm and is out of squad. 

Teams are somehow similar. They are enjoying high tempo, playing aggressively, but in my opinion home pitch counts a lot in those cases. Uruguayans will be cheered by they're crazy fans. Possession will be somewhere in edge, but individually Uruguay has bigger guns, and I think that those two facts will decide the game. When talking about individuals we need to mention also Godin, who is one of best defenders in the world for few years now. With Coates (196 cm) they are pretty dangerous also from set-pieces, so my call here is Uruguay.

Edited November 9, 2016 by Pep004

[Sir Puntalot]

9 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

First of all I would like to say hi to everyone. I am new here, but old in this sports betting business. You can read more about me on my blog which is still in progress. Besides I see that you were talking about match between Columbia and Chile. I am somehow on Columbian's side, but what is problem now is that Alexis is out and even if it means that bet on Columbians should be even better, I don't like it that much. Why? Firstly, because odds are lower, and secondly because Chile will play very defensively trying to beat them with counter-attacks. Anyone who will play is capable to play in high tempo and if Columbians will try to attack "headless" they can easily concede goal and then it will be really tough to come back. Besides Columbia won against Chile only once in last seven meetings!

On the other hand, I am looking to odds on +0,5 of Argentina which looks quite jummy to me... 

 

PICK: Uruguay AH -0,75 @1,83 PINNACLE 3/10

Football / WC Qualifications / Kick off: 11 Nov 2016, 0:00

Uruguay is coming into match like 2nd placed team of qualifications, while Ecuador is sitting right behind with 3 points less. There is one notable difference between those two teams in this match and this is that Uruguay has no problems with getting 3 points at home: 3-0 Columbia, 3-0 Chile, 1-0 Peru, 4-0 Paraguay, 3-0 Venezuela; while Ecuador - even if they managed to get more than 50% points on away matches in those qualifiers, they didn't win in last 6 matches away from home. It's true that on 6th of October they managed big win against Chile at home (3-0), but 4 days later it was totally different against Bolivia where they played bore draw (2-2), equalising in second half after being behind 2-0. 

Oscar Tabarez, head coach of Uruguay said that Cavani rejected an offer to stay in Paris to recover from thigh injury and is fighting to be able to play qualification game against Ecuador. First match in Quito ended with win for Ecuador (2-1), so it's time for payback. Suarez is ready in good goalscoring form, and even if Uruguay will need to compete without first goalscorer in qualifications - Edison Cavani, they're still favourites in my eyes. 

Ecuador believes that they can surprise Uruguay once again, but they will need to do it without Antonio Valencia who injured his arm and is out of squad. 

Teams are somehow similar. They are enjoying high tempo, playing aggressively, but in my opinion home pitch counts a lot in those cases. Uruguayans will be cheered by they're crazy fans. Possession will be somewhere in edge, but individually Uruguay has bigger guns, and I think that those two facts will decide the game. When talking about individuals we need to mention also Godin, who is one of best defenders in the world for few years now. With Coates (196 cm) they are pretty dangerous also from set-pieces, so my call here is Uruguay.

 to PL @Pep004  

Great first post and sig link has been inserted as we discussed.  

[Pep004]

Thank you! I am looking forward to good cooperation with you guys.

Good luck!

[vasilli07]

Peru is just rubbish away from home. In the last 26 South America WC qualifying away games spanning back to 2005, they have lost all but 2 games(both against Bolivia). Even though Paraguay is not a powerhouse, they should be able to at least beat Peru.

Edited November 9, 2016 by vasilli07

[betcatalog]

My Tips for this match is 
Uruguay vs Ecuador @@ win Uruguay, odds 1,60

Brazil vs Argentina @@ under 2,5, odds 1,85

Good luck to all

[Pep004]

PICK: Argentina AH +0,5 @1,80 PINNACLE 5/10
Football / WC Qualifiers / Kick off: 11 Nov 2016, 0:45
 

In this round we'll be able to see the derby between South America's two biggest national teams. After 10 round, Brazil is in much better situation with 21 points and goal difference +14 sitting on 1st place of qualification group, while Argentina is on 6th place, not even between teams who would reach WC in Russia for now. 

Brazil whose head coach since June 2016 is Tite (Bacchi), looking pretty good and comfortable on 1st spot, with Uruguay 1 point behind, while 3rd Ecuador is already 4 points behind them. With Jesus, Willian and Neymar as best scorers of national team they won all four matches after September (Ecuador 0-3, 2-1 Columbia, 5-0 Bolivia, Venezuela 0-2). We can see that they conceded only one goal, but it will be totally different to play against team like Argentina. It is true that they can be more comfortable in front of derby, but I am sure that they will want win as much as Gauchos will want it. Casemiro is still injured so we can expect Fernandinho on defensive midfield position which is for sure not bad, cause Fernandinho is one of key players of Manchester City this season and he is playing on really high level - but, also he is little bit injured. Tite has big squad, specially in attack he can chose between many really quality players, so it's almost impossible to predict who will start. Neymar is back in squad after missing Venezuela, which means that William or Coutinho will go to the bench, while Jesus will probably stay as middle attacker. 

As mentioned, Argentina is in bad position. They didn't win not even once in last three matches, and opponents were Peru, Venezuela and Paraguay. First two matches ended with draw, while they lost against Paraguay at home, which was total disappointment for they're fans. What was missing in those matches? Better question is who, and this is Lionel Messi. He is back! With him, we'll watch totally different Argentina. In my opinion head coach Bauza is the happiest about having him back, because his place was already in jeopardy. On right back we'll be able to watch repeated duel between Zabaleta and Neymar. In Champions league Argentinian stopped Brazil star pretty good, and we'll see how it will be this time. It could be the crucial fact of match! With Otamendi in defence, Argentina finally has one trustworthy defender - who should play in pair with Mascherano in my opinion, but I think that Bauza will let Masche to play in midfield as defensive midfielder. Biglia is back and could start, while as at Brazilians also there we can not be sure who will start in up-front for Argentina. Messi, Aguero, Dybala, Higuain, Correa, also Di Maria could be used as offensive winger...

All in all, the importance of match is much bigger for Argentina who can not allow themselves to lose all three points here. Right now they are competing with Chile for 5th spot, and they will have though match in Columbia - without key player Alexis, but it's also needed to be mentioned that 3rd spot is only 1 point above Argentina. They will still play 8 matches, so it is far from must win situation as many people are saying, but here is not just about points and position on table, but also for pride. I expect that both teams will start little bit careful, without headless attacks. Both teams likes to be in possession (Brazil 57,4% in avg. / Argentina 59% in avg.), passing accuracy is on high level (both of them around 85%), they have exactly the same number of tackles per match in average (19,3) and everything of that is just showing us that there is a big game in front of us. In my opinion odds are too much on Brazilian's side and even if I am publishing this little bit too late, because odds dropped in last hours, I can still see value in those odds. It's a derby and I am predicting a draw here, but wouldn't be too much surprised with away win.
 

It also needs to mentioned, that this will be the first match of Brazil in Belo Horizonte, on stadium where they lost against Germany with 7-1! 

Edited November 10, 2016 by Pep004

[Pep004]

Disaster... Performance of Mascherano was totally awful, maybe even worse then tactics of Bauza. Need to admit, that I was wrong. I expected Argentina to play little bit more defensively, letting wizards in attack to solve the game, but they started offensively with entire team and open themselves totally for Brazilian counter-attacks. Final result could be even more than 5 goals difference... Every single Argentinian is just trying to do something on his own.. no team play there, no connection, no team spirit, nothing... But anyway, I am looking forward to put some money on them against Columbia...  

[Pep004]

Peru - Brazil
Full Event Away -1.00 (AH) @ 2.110 3/10 PINNACLE
Football / WC Qual. / Kick off: 16 Nov 2016, 03:15

Match between 1st and 8th team of qualifications. Peru needs all 3 points to stay in touch with 5th place and that's the reason why I am going with Brazilians there. They proved me that they are serious team with Tite. I need to admit that I didn't see Brazilian national team playing that "team football" for long long time. Against Argentina everything worked perfectly. I know that motivation in derby was different, but if Peru will try to seek all three points here with playing attacking, offensive football as they did against Argentina, Brazilians will kill them as they killed Argentinians - with counter attacks! With Coutinho, Neymar and Jesus up front they are crazily quick and capable of creating a good chance in 5 seconds. All Brazilian lines are covered strongly, also with some really quality substitutes so I see tough match for Peru tonight. Both teams are coming with 3 goals difference win in last round, but I believe that too much confidence can be bad for Peru against this organised Brazilian team. As Dani Alves said after match against Argentina, they are playing much more team football like they did, and difference between them and Argentina was, that Argentinians were waiting that Messi will do the magic, while all Brazilians are producing magic, and with this kind of mentality I think that this Brazilian team is one of strong favourites of WC.

[Guest]

I suppose Chile will show better result

I want to support this country on the 2018 World Cup 

[thornvineembers]

I hope Argentina will step up its performance!

[StevieDay1983]

The latest round of fixtures for the South American qualification section take place in a couple of weeks. Here are the odds.

@thornvineembers, @Pep004, @betcatalog, @vasilli07, @Neubs, and @winnerwinner, you have all bet on previous games. What is your thinking ahead of these matches? A few matches that are too close to call so there should be some interesting discussion about these.

[Duuc]

I feel like Colombia will trash Bolivia

Argentina will win home at poor Chile. Chile without Vidal, which is their main power and drive in midfield and probably with sexy Alexy Sanchez, who has ankle problems. Argentina will have way too much firepower I think.

 

Anyone else any thoughts?

 

[Pep004]

Same thoughts about Colombia, but odds fall too much in my opinion. Odds like 1,61 for Columbia team totals over 2,25 are disaster. Also AH -2 looks bad at 1,89. 

[LePapo]

This are the kind of matchdays that are difficult to analyse. Last matches were played back in November and in 5 months a lot can change. Brazil who were struggling in March last year, changed their coach and are currently on a 6 match winning streak, Argentina was struggling in the last matches but they beat Colombia at home 3-0. Peru in August had absolutely no chance to qualify to the WC but some luck and a massive win away against Paraguay have given them a minuscule chance to go to Russia. The table is quite tight in the middle; just 6 points between the third and the eight so if some teams (Peru Paraguay) don't get the results they need in these two matches they will probably be saying goodbye to Russia. Brazil is virtually qualified to the WC given that 27 points would have been enough to qualify directly in the past quaifiers and they still have 6 matches to play... The same could be said for Uruguay, 23 points 6 games to play and 3 of them against Peru Bolivia and Venezuela... just a disaster would eliminate them...

Regardind this round,

Colombia-Bolivia

Colombia should beat Bolivia with relatively ease, Bolivia have been terrible during the qualifiers winning just 3 matches and one of them was given as a 3-0 defeat afterwards because they fielded a player that wasn't allowed to play!!!!!! So things are definitely not going well for them, also their record away is a disgrace. Losing 5 and drawing 1, a match they would lose as they field the same player... Bolivia have just scored 1 goal away in 6 matches and have conceded 16 goals (not counting those 3 against Chile) On the other hand Colombia have just won 5 of the last 15 points and that have made them lose some ground in the race to russia. They have to win this match in order to regain the 4-5 place. The match will be played in Baranquilla where it's extremely hot and humid and they always schedule their matches between 15-17 local time when the sun is stronger. It seems Falcao will miss these matches but Colombia have a strong team and when they're in the mood they play good football. Also their goal difference stands at 0 and in case of tie, it's the GD that determines who goes ahead.

I think the more sensible bet in this match is Colombia -2. Odds are around 1.85 but I still think there's some value, if they confirm Falcao is out, odds might drift a bit. A riskier option is Columbia -2.5 at around 2.30.

Paraguay-Ecuador 

I have little to say here, this is a win or die match for Paraguay. If they lose or draw they are virtually out. I don't fancy Ecuador when they play away and I have some doubts about Paraguay, 1 match won and 4 defeats in the last 5 doesn't give me confindence.

Uruguay-Brazil

The match of the round to me. The first and second will face each other. Brazil have reborn under Tite, they have won all their matches and they play good football. Uruguay have a flawless record at home and quality players like Cavani Suarez Godin. I like odds here because bookmakers have made Brazil favourites for this match. I just don't think they're. Uruguay is one of the best in South America, excellent players who always give everything in the matches. Now they are playing at home and to me this is an important factor. Given that bookies offer more than 2.00 on Uruguay DNB, I'll happily back it. A riskier option is to go on Uruguay to win at over 3. 

EDIT: suárez is suspended for this match, i had totally forgotten. this changes things, i might sit out of this match in terms of betting.

Argentina-Chili

Not much to say here, Argentina might have the best player in the world and some unreal strikers but they just don't give me confidence. They have lost against Ecuador and Paraguay at home....Chile won't have Vidal and Diaz so their midfield is weakened. It seems also that Alexis is having fitness issues... I don't think Chile can win but I'm not sure if Argentina can win this... If I have to pick a team, I'd side with Argentina but odds of 1.5 offer no value at all to me.

Venezuela-PeruAnother team with a win or die match. Peru is forced to win this match if they don't want to say goodbye to Russia. They have a terrible record away winning just one match since 2004. Last year they beat Paraguay away 4-1 playing a fantastic match, true is Peru have a decent team. Despite some shocking results in the qualifiers, they have managed to finish third in two of the last three Copa America and in the last one they were eliminated after a penalty shootout. This Peru team is mainly composed by young players that have some quality but they lack one big player that can turn things around. Regarding Venezuela, they showed an improvement lately, drawing at home against Argentina and obliterating Bolivia 5-0. They have 5 points so the only thing they fight for is to avoid being the last. To me it depends on what Peru turn up, if it's the same that faced Bolivia Uruguay and Chile first half, I think this will be an easy win for Venezuela if it's the same that played Paraguay current odds on Peru represent some value, I see this as an even match so if I had to pick a side it would be Peru.

If nothing big happens my main pick pick should be:

2 units on Colombia -2.5 at 2.30 (i'm still thinking bout this, would have prefered -2 but my bookie doesn't offer that option)

Good luck to you all

Edited March 21, 2017 by LePapo

[vasilli07]

I would have gone for Uruguay DNB too if Suarez is not suspended. Cavani is such a streaky striker. He will probably miss 5-6 chances before he can score a goal.

[LePapo]

damn you're right , i don't know why i had in mind it was sanchez instead of suárez. that changes things.... 

[betcatalog]

I expect an open and free game and have many goals, since the two teams have the worst defenses in the group
VENEZUELA vs PERU @@ +2.25 Over, odds 1.90

Nice game both to watch and to bet on it, perhaps fighting the best two teams in the group with the two best defensive lines, I expect close game with few goals
URUGUAY vs BRAZIL @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.80

Paraguay home has 4 to 6 goal goal, Ecuador total has 10 to 12 over 2,5 and 5 to 6 goal goal away. I expect both teams score and concede goals in today expect to score a goal and confirm the Goals
PARAGUAY vs ECUADOR @@ Both team to score, odds 1.95

[WinningAdvice]

Can Argentina save themselves?

Is Messi enough?

Hopefully my questions will be answered positively tomorrow. Haven't placed a bet on this one because my biases might cloud my decision.