Argentina Primera Division 2016/2017

[gogetta]

Rosario Central vs Atletico Tucuman

Hosts come from a disappointing 2-2 draw away to Sarmiento, losing their defensive balance and conceding two goals. For this clash, their offensive momentum will be affected by the missing Marco Ruben, captain and team's main attacking reference, . The focus will be on regaining defensive balance and greater composure upfront.

The visitors appear to have their focus on next week's Copa Libertadores clash, away to Jorge Wilstermann (Bolivia), and they need a result to get off the bottom of the group table. Expect conservative play to reserve energy for the important trip to Bolivia. Under 2.5 goals

Bet lost: Rosario Centrol 2-1 Atletico Tucuman

Edited April 8, 2017 by gogetta

[StevieDay1983]

What are your thoughts on the games this weekend @gogetta? I have not seen any fixtures released on bet365 yet. Only for the lower divisions in Argentina. Is this due to continental and cup action?

[gogetta]

Friday 14 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	CA Huracan v Arsenal de Sarandi (21:00 BST)	1.91	3.34	4.95	102.50 %
	Lanus v San Martin-San Juan (21:00 BST)	1.59	3.95	7	102.50 %
	Saturday 15 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Newell's Old Boys v Estudiantes de La Plata (15:00 BST)	1.91	3.4	4.8	102.60 %
	Belgrano v Talleres de Córdoba (20:00 BST)	2.31	3.12	3.68	102.52 %
	Independiente v Atlético de Rafaela (22:00 BST)	1.72	3.6	6.5	101.30 %
	Olimpo v Vélez Sársfield (23:00 BST)	2.2	3.18	3.9	102.54 %
	Sunday 16 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Club Atlético Sarmiento v Racing Club (00:00 BST)	4.75	3.35	1.8	106.46 %
	Godoy Cruz v Banfield (20:00 BST)	2.75	2.98	3.06	102.60 %
	Atlético Tucumán v San Lorenzo (20:15 BST)	2.85	2.99	2.94	102.55 %
	Boca Juniors v Patronato (22:15 BST)	1.53	4.1	8	102.25 %
	Quilmes AC v Colon de Santa Fe (22:20 BST)	2.38	3.1	3.56	102.36 %
	Monday 17 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Tigre v River Plate (00:15 BST)	3.94	3.15	2.26	101.37 %
	Unión de Santa Fe v Defensa y Justicia (00:30 BST)	2.19	3.1	4.05	102.61 %
	Temperley v Rosario Central (23:00 BST)	2.88	3.35	2.83	99.91 %
	Tuesday 18 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata v Aldosivi (01:15 BST)	1.9	3.35	5	102.48 %

[gogetta]

Lanus vs San Martin

Hosts have scored five goals and conceded the same number in the last two championship matches; the latest being a 3-1 away loss to Talleres. Coach Jorge Almiron would like his team to regain the effectiveness displayed in the first phase of the championship but he is distracted by the team's involvement in the Copa Libertadores group stage. This game poses the same dilemma; he would like his team to play well and win against San Martin but he also has to keep an eye on Tuesday's Copa tie, at home to Zulia from Venezuela. He has two key players returning from injury but cannot risk them ahead of that Copa tie, also mindful that his team lost the previous Copa home game.

The visitors have not won since the start of the second phase of the championship, under new Coach Nestor "Pipo" Gorosito; two losses and three draws, and the team did not score in four of these five matches! The latest was 0-0 draw at home to Union. Unsurprisingly, Coach Gorosito prepared for this particular game seeking an improvement in the attacking midfield play, to generate chances for the forwards to convert. He has made two modifications in this sector, bringing in Maxi Lugo and Ezequiel Montagna to provide more support to the two strikers.

The hosts have divided attention and cannot muster all their resources and commitment to this game; while the visitors are desperately seeking a win and come with an offensive stance. Draw or Away win.

Huracan vs Arsenal Sarandi

Hosts come from a fortuitous 1-1 draw away to bottom team Rafaela; in which the home team dictated play while Huracan were disjointed and did not have any clear scoring opportunity until the "miraculous" leveller, scored just seconds to the end of the three added minutes! Thus Huracan extended their unbeaten run in this second phase; two wins and three draws. They have displayed defensive solidity but still lack a consistent scorer, with the few goals scored spread across the team. Without an effective finisher, Coach Juan Azconzabal looks for variants and mobility in attack. For this clash, the team welcomes back three players: Defender Federico Mancinelli plus midfielders Marcos Diaz and Matias Fritzler. Hosts seek three points to move farther away from the threat of relegation.

The visitors are firmly in the relegation zone (last on the table with eight points), courtesy of five defeats since the start of this second phase of the championship, under new Coach Humberto Grondona. They come from a 0-1 loss at home to Newells; Arsenal taking the initiative but lacked definition in the final third, while the visitors waited patiently for their chance and thereafter defended their lead.

This is a relegation six-pointer. While Arsenal plays a closed game against the superior teams, it takes an offensive and intense posture against direct rivals. BTTS

 

Bets won:    Lanus 0-0 San Martin

               Huracan 1-2 Arsenal Sarandi

Edited April 15, 2017 by gogetta

[gogetta]

Wednesday 19 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Racing Club v Tigre (23:30 BST)	1.2	1.55	1.09	239.59 %
	Thursday 20 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Talleres de Córdoba v Independiente (01:15 BST)	2.6	3.06	3.3	101.44 %
	Saturday 22 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	San Lorenzo v Temperley (01:15 BST)	1.44	4.55	8.8	102.79 %
	Aldosivi v Newell's Old Boys (18:00 BST)	3.3	3.24	2.42	102.49 %
	Racing Club v Atlético Tucumán (20:00 BST)	1.29	2.94	2.7	148.57 %
	Banfield v Quilmes AC (20:10 BST)	1.75	3.48	6	102.55 %
	Defensa y Justicia v Lanus (20:15 BST)	2.83	3.05	2.9	102.61 %
	Vélez Sársfield v Unión de Santa Fe (22:20 BST)	2.02	3.2	4.6	102.49 %
	Sunday 23 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Rosario Central v Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (00:30 BST)	2.3	3.3	3.48	102.52 %
	Estudiantes de La Plata v CA Huracan (19:15 BST)	1.86	3.45	5.1	102.36 %
	Atlético de Rafaela v Boca Juniors (20:15 BST)	4.5	3.3	2	102.53 %
	San Martin-San Juan v Belgrano (21:00 BST)	2.66	3.2	2.96	102.63 %
	River Plate v Club Atlético Sarmiento (22:15 BST)	1.47	4.45	8.3	102.55 %
	Talleres de Córdoba v Godoy Cruz (23:30 BST)	1.77	3.44	5.9	102.52 %
	Monday 24 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Arsenal de Sarandi v Independiente (00:15 BST)	5	3.34	1.9	102.57 %
	Patronato v Olimpo (23:00 BST)	2.1	3.1	4.4	102.60 %
	Tuesday 25 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Colon de Santa Fe v Tigre (01:15 BST)	2.05	3.15	4.55	102.50 %

[gogetta]

Colon vs Tigre

Since the arrival of Coach Eduardo Dominguez at the beginning of the year, Colon has had a remarkable recovery of one draw followed by five consecutive wins! Currently in seventh place, a win in this game will catapult the team into the classification zone for a Copa Libertadores slot next year. The team's good performance has been based on defensive solidity; and comes from a 1-0 away win over Quilmes. For this game, the only team change by Coach Dominguez is midfielder Christian Bernardi to start ahead of young striker Nicholas Leguizamon.

The visitors' new coach, Facundo Sava, prefers an offensive style and won his first game at home 4-3 against San Lorenzo. But the team has since lost two successive matches; with the latest being a 4-1 defeat away to Racing Club, in which Tigre displayed both individual and collective defensive problems. They attacked Racing right from the start and even when they conceded the first goal (against the run of play), they insisted on seeking equality - offering spaces for the home side to exploit and widen the score. In the wake of such defensive problems (conceding nine goals in the last three matches), Coach Sava has considered two changes for this game: Bruno Urribarri to replace Diego Sosa at left-back and the more disciplined defensive midfielder Gaspar Iniguez in place of the younger Alexis Castro.

Facing an opponent with offensive style, Home Coach Dominguez has opted to sacrifice one of his portent attackers in favour of solidifying the midfield and protecting the defence - at least in the first half. But the visiting coach has also opted for a more defence-minded approach. Half-Time Under 0.5 goals.

 

Bet Lost: Colon 2-1(HT 1-0) Tigre

Edited April 25, 2017 by gogetta

[gogetta]

	Friday 28 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Quilmes AC v Talleres de Córdoba (23:00 BST)	4	3.32	2.19	100.78 %
	Saturday 29 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Independiente v Estudiantes de La Plata (01:15 BST)	2.02	3.3	4.9	100.22 %
	CA Huracan v Newell's Old Boys (20:00 BST)	3.1	3.08	2.65	102.46 %
	Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata v San Lorenzo (20:00 BST)	1.95	3.45	4.9	100.68 %
	Club Atlético Sarmiento v Colon de Santa Fe (20:10 BST)	3.05	3.15	2.7	101.57 %
	Tigre v Banfield (22:20 BST)	2.42	3.34	3.3	101.42 %
	Sunday 30 April 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Temperley v Racing Club (00:00 BST)	4.5	3.5	1.94	102.34 %
	Unión de Santa Fe v Patronato (00:30 BST)	1.93	3.4	4.9	101.63 %
	Godoy Cruz v San Martin-San Juan (20:00 BST)	2.12	3.4	3.94	101.96 %
	Rosario Central v Aldosivi (21:00 BST)	1.61	3.92	6.8	102.12 %
	Boca Juniors v Arsenal de Sarandi (23:10 BST)	1.23	7.4	18	100.37 %
	Olimpo v Atlético de Rafaela (23:30 BST)	2.4	3.1	3.66	101.25 %
	Tuesday 2 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Belgrano v Defensa y Justicia (20:30 BST)	3.42	3.15	2.41	102.48 %
	Wednesday 3 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Lanus v Vélez Sársfield (01:00 BST)	2.1	3.25	4.3	101.64 %

[gogetta]

	Saturday 6 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	San Martin-San Juan v Quilmes AC (01:00 BST)	2.06	3.2	4.4	102.52 %
	Talleres de Córdoba v Tigre (01:15 BST)	1.99	3.3	4.55	102.53 %
	Patronato v Lanus (20:00 BST)	2.65	3.24	2.95	102.50 %
	Racing Club v Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (20:45 BST)	1.83	3.45	5.6	101.39 %
	Atlético de Rafaela v Unión de Santa Fe (23:00 BST)	2.2	3.12	3.98	102.63 %
	Estudiantes de La Plata v Boca Juniors (23:00 BST)	3	3.35	2.62	101.35 %
	Sunday 7 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	River Plate v Temperley (00:30 BST)	1.49	4.55	9	100.20 %
	Aldosivi v CA Huracan (19:45 BST)	2.37	3.02	3.68	102.39 %
	Arsenal de Sarandi v Olimpo (19:45 BST)	2.85	3.22	2.85	101.23 %
	Defensa y Justicia v Godoy Cruz (22:00 BST)	1.87	3.36	5.3	102.11 %
	San Lorenzo v Rosario Central (22:15 BST)	1.95	3.3	4.85	102.14 %
	Monday 8 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Colon de Santa Fe v Atlético Tucumán (00:15 BST)	1.9	3.38	4.9	102.63 %
	Newell's Old Boys v Independiente (00:15 BST)	2.66	3.2	2.96	102.63 %
	Tuesday 9 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Banfield v Club Atlético Sarmiento (00:10 BST)	1.8	3.55	5.6	101.58 %
	Vélez Sársfield v Belgrano (01:15 BST)	2	3.25	4.7	102.05 %

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

@gogetta, we can now not only offer the odds for the Argentina Primera Division but can also offer the ELO ratings. What are your thoughts? Hopefully, this can entice more punters to give their thoughts on these games.

[Sir Puntalot]

I can't get over the ratings on this match in Primera B. Parana rated miles ahead are bottom of the league, but look closer and they've lost 1-0 last few matches. I'll be keeping an eye out for the result of this one.  

[gogetta]

Racing Club vs Gimnazia LP

Hosts are smarting from a 3-0 thrashing away to Temperley in the last round and thus lost a five-match winning streak. The opponents simply exploited the disorderly performance of Racing, with Coach Diego Cocca notably delaying to make the required changes. Therefore, in this game, the team seeks an immediate return to winning ways and to gain three points to get closer to the top of the table. With the team depending more on individual quality rather than the collective, Coach Diego Cocca this week put more emphasis on correcting errors in the collective team play. Due to physical problems, defender Marco Torsiglieri and striker Gustavo Bou are out of this game; but key midfielder Luciano Aued returns from suspension while this season's young attacking sensation Lautaro Martinez has also recovered and will start alongside Lisandro Lopez in attack. However, having conceded six goals in the last two games, Coach Cocca has opted for sweeping changes in defence - almost with an entirely new back four for this match.

Gimnazia LP comes from two consecutive losses but may not react in this game: they face Brazilian team Ponte Preta in the Copa Sudamericana next week, closely followed by the important league derby against Estudiantes. Therefore, for this match, Coach Gustavo Alfaro opted save some players and has made six modifications to his usual starting eleven.

Therefore, Racing will seek a win but with a better defence and improved collective game; while the much-changed visitors will seek to close the game and limit chances for the usually offensive hosts. Home win and Under 2.5 goals.

 

Bet won: Racing 1-0 Gimnazia

Edited May 7, 2017 by gogetta

[gogetta]

Saturday 13 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	San Martin-San Juan v Godoy Cruz (01:15 BST)	2.54	3.15	3.25	101.89 %
	Estudiantes de La Plata v Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (18:00 BST)	1.91	3.35	4.9	102.61 %
	Talleres de Córdoba v Belgrano (18:00 BST)	1.92	3.28	5	102.57 %
	Banfield v Lanus (20:00 BST)	2.27	3.26	3.75	101.39 %
	Atlético de Rafaela v Atlético Tucumán (21:15 BST)	2.05	3.55	4.2	100.76 %
	CA Huracan v San Lorenzo (22:00 BST)	3.1	3.15	2.62	102.10 %
	Olimpo v Aldosivi (23:30 BST)	2.09	3.4	4.33	100.35 %
	Sunday 14 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Colon de Santa Fe v Unión de Santa Fe (18:00 BST)	1.98	3.4	4.4	102.64 %
	Newell's Old Boys v Rosario Central (19:00 BST)	2.52	3.18	3.2	102.38 %
	Boca Juniors v River Plate (21:00 BST)	2.18	3.4	3.68	102.46 %
	Independiente v Racing Club (23:00 BST)	2.42	3.25	3.4	101.50 %
	Patronato v Club Atlético Sarmiento (23:15 BST)	2.09	3.25	4.25	102.15 %
	Monday 15 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Arsenal de Sarandi v Temperley (23:00 BST)	2.77	3.15	3	101.18 %
	Defensa y Justicia v Quilmes AC (23:00 BST)	1.54	4.15	7.5	102.36 %
	Tuesday 16 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Vélez Sársfield v Tigre (01:15 BST)	2.18	3.35	3.76	102.32 %

[gogetta]

San Martin vs Godoy Cruz

This is the derby of Cuyo, the wine producing, mountainous area of central-west Argentina. Godoy hosted the first meeting this year, just two weeks ago, that ended in a goalless draw. At that time, Godoy was preparing to host an important tie that would determine their classification from the group stage of the Copa Libertadores. This time round, Godoy has an away tie (in five days) against Brazilian club Atletico MG; but they are already guaranteed a historic qualification into the knock-out stage (last 16), and can therefore fully focus on this derby. Godoy will be looking their first win and to score their first goal in three league matches. But they miss key striker Juan Fernando Garro, who was red-carded in last weekend's league match away to Defensa; while Paraguayan central defender Danilo Ortiz is injured. However, midfielder Fabian Henriquez returns from suspension. In the last practice prior to today's match, Godoy Coach Lucas Bernardi focused on fast transitions, speed passes and finishing.

The hosts, San Martin, will be keen to secure the three points to improve their average in the struggle against relegation. They come into this match high in confidence, with six league games unbeaten: two wins and four draws, with both wins in the last two home games. Coach Nestor Gorosito has no recent absences, as Goalkeeper and Captain Luis Ardente has recovered from injury.

The hosts are high in confidence, as are the visitors who have just celebrated a historic march into the Copa Libertadores knock-out stage. But missing a key striker and central defender, the visitors' coach is likely to opt for a cautious approach while attacking on the counter. Both teams are more likely to avoid defeat as the first priority. Draw

 

Bet Lost: San Martin 1-2 Godoy Cruz

Edited May 13, 2017 by gogetta

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the odds and ratings for the latest batch of games in the Argentina Primera Division. @gogetta, keen to hear your thoughts on these!

[gogetta]

Saturday 20 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Atlético Tucumán v Banfield (01:15 BST)	2.8	3.3	2.99	99.46 %
	Belgrano v Patronato (18:00 BST)	2.06	3.4	4.65	99.46 %
	Lanus v Atlético de Rafaela (20:15 BST)	2.26	3.28	3.6	102.51 %
	Club Atlético Sarmiento v Talleres de Córdoba (21:15 BST)	3.5	3.2	2.33	102.74 %
	Boca Juniors v Newell's Old Boys (22:00 BST)	1.68	3.9	6.2	101.29 %
	Tigre v San Martin-San Juan (23:30 BST)	1.95	3.4	4.75	101.75 %
	Sunday 21 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Independiente v CA Huracan (00:00 BST)	1.58	4.05	7.6	101.14 %
	Unión de Santa Fe v Arsenal de Sarandi (00:00 BST)	1.85	3.56	5.2	101.37 %
	Godoy Cruz v Vélez Sársfield (19:00 BST)	2.29	3.25	3.65	101.83 %
	San Lorenzo v Aldosivi (20:15 BST)	1.52	4.1	8.1	102.53 %
	Temperley v Colon de Santa Fe (21:00 BST)	3.02	3.2	2.62	102.53 %
	Quilmes AC v Defensa y Justicia (23:15 BST)	5.2	3.56	1.85	101.37 %
	Monday 22 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Rosario Central v Racing Club (00:15 BST)	2.28	3.3	3.45	103.15 %
	Olimpo v Estudiantes de La Plata (23:00 BST)	3.25	3.1	2.6	101.49 %
	Tuesday 23 May 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata v River Plate (01:15 BST)	4.1	3.38	2.1	101.60 %

[gogetta]

Atletico Tucuman vs Banfield

Hosts have had adverse results recently in the league, attributed to loss of concentration and failure to close out games towards the end. The latest is a 1-0 loss away to Rafaela, in which defender Bruno Bianchi was expelled. However, the last three league games were away and now the team returns to its home. Despite having a Copa Libertadores match next week (away to Palmeiras in Brazil), Coach Pablo Lavallen has his full attention on this league match. However, the offensive sector is hampered by the absence of  their top-scorer Fernando Zampedri (knee injury and is out for the rest of the season) as well as Cristian Menendez  (who has returned from injury but not ready for this game).

Banfield comes from four consecutive wins and is in fifth spot in the table, in line for a place in next year’s Copa Libertadores. The latest game was a 1-0 derby win against Lanus. Coach Julio Cesar Falcioni, whose squad is largely composed of players developed through the club’s academy, prefers a closed and high tension game; with counter-attack ability using very fast transitions from the middle to the offensive. For this game, they will miss defender Carlos Mathieu (expelled in the last match) as well as attacking midfielder Emanuel Cecchini.

Host Coach Pablo Lavallen has equally adapted his tactics; plotting a closed game with an  offensive midfield but seeking to cut out the recent lapses of concentration towards the end. Under 1.5 goals.

 

Bet Lost: Atletico Tucuman 3-0 Banfield

Edited May 20, 2017 by gogetta

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

@gogetta, a lot to consider this week. Any more selections from above standing out for you?

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

@gogetta, keen to hear your thoughts on the upcoming weekend of action!

[gogetta]

 

River Plate vs Rosario Central

 

Boca Juniors’ unexpected 1-1 draw, away to Huracan yesterday, has suddenly swung the title momentum towards River Plate; which can climb to the top of the table if they beat Rosario today and also win their game in hand on Wednesday away to Atletico Tucuman.

The hosts come from a 1-2 home loss to Colombia’s Independiente Medellin on Thursday, in the Copa Libertadores. Despite the fact that River had already qualified for the last 16 and Coach Marcello left seven regulars out of the starting eleven, the loss was still embarrassing as the club was celebrating its 116^th birthday.  Coach Gallardo is keen for his team to recover from that mishap and, particularly, to address the team’s lack of concentration in leaving behind spaces for their opponents to capitalize on. Gallardo will repeat the team that won 3-1 away against Boca Juniors and also beat Gimnazia LP 0-3 away on Tuesday.

The visitors, Rosario Central, have a very poor record against the hosts; just five draws and 11 defeats from all their visits in the last two decades, with more recent history indicating three consecutive defeats! But they have been on good form recently; 8 wins, one draw and only one loss in the last ten league games. And they come from a 4-1 home thrashing of Racing. Uruguayan Coach Paolo Montero will make only one change in the team that defeated Racing; Jose Leguizamon will enter for the suspended Paulo Ferrari.

Hosts have no option but to seek a win after Boca’s unexpected slip yesterday. Home win and Under 2.5 goals.

 

Bet Lost: River Plate 0-0 Rosario Central

Edited May 29, 2017 by gogetta

[gogetta]

Friday 2 June 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Club Atlético Sarmiento v Defensa y Justicia (23:00 BST)	6.7	4.15	1.63	100.37 %
	Saturday 3 June 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Godoy Cruz v Atlético de Rafaela (01:15 BST)	2.16	3.48	3.85	101.01 %
	Tigre v Vélez Sársfield (18:00 BST)	2.44	3.2	3.35	102.08 %
	Temperley v Talleres de Córdoba (20:15 BST)	12	4.75	2.31	72.68 %
	Rosario Central v Colon de Santa Fe (21:15 BST)	1.77	3.62	5.4	102.64 %
	Unión de Santa Fe v Newell's Old Boys (23:30 BST)	3	3.08	2.75	102.16 %
	Sunday 4 June 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Lanus v Estudiantes de La Plata (00:00 BST)	2.35	3.18	3.5	102.57 %
	San Lorenzo v River Plate (18:00 BST)	2.89	3.25	2.69	102.55 %
	Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata v Banfield (20:00 BST)	2.81	3.22	2.78	102.61 %
	Belgrano v Arsenal de Sarandi (20:15 BST)	1.95	3.35	4.75	102.19 %
	Olimpo v CA Huracan (21:00 BST)	2.2	3.2	3.96	101.96 %
	Atlético Tucumán v San Martin-San Juan (22:30 BST)	2.03	3.3	4.3	102.82 %
	Boca Juniors v Independiente (23:00 BST)	2.11	3.26	4.1	102.46 %
	Monday 5 June 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Quilmes AC v Patronato (23:00 BST)	2.38	3.05	3.6	102.58 %
	Tuesday 6 June 2017	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Racing Club v Aldosivi (01:15 BST)	1.5	4	6.5	107.05 %

[gogetta]

Sarmiento vs Defensa

Hosts come from a 4-2 thrashing away to San Martin; thus firmly rooted to the bottom of both the league table as well as the table of averages, and on the verge of relegation. The team needs a miracle to survive: it has not won in the last ten matches (three draws and seven losses), and has conceded ten goals in the last three games. For this game, Coach Fernando ‘Tete’ Quiroz (the fourth coach of the team this season) will miss injured defenders Alexis Niz and Francisco Dutari, while winger Adrian Scifo is suspended. And in a sign that the club is already planning for life outside the top division, Coach Quiroz intends to field a team full of youths against Defensa.

The visitors, on the other hand, are on a momentum: with two draws and six wins in the last eight matches, and has not conceded a goal in the last seven games. They are 13^th in the table and arrive for this match after a 1-0 home win against Tigre; and with the ambition of  further climbing the table to classify for the next edition of the Copa Sudamericana.

Hosts are in poor form and appear to have lost the fight for survival; while the visitors are on form and are motivated to get the three points. Away win.

 

Bet Lost: Sarmiento 1-0 Defensa

Edited June 3, 2017 by gogetta

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Trying my best to keep up with the fixtures and available odds and ratings over past week with games spread to the four winds. Back to a more regular schedule next weekend but here are a couple of games to mull over coming up this week.

[gogetta]

Quilmes vs Patronato

Both teams are battling relegation, though Patronato have a slightly better chance with a better calculated average than the hosts. And after this game, Quilmes’ next two opponents will also be relegation strugglists ie Atletico Rafaela (away) and Arsenal Sarandi (home). In this situation, the hosts would be expected to take the initiative in this match, but their biggest problem is the lack of creative ability; scoring only one goal and conceding five in the last five league matches. Indeed their best player in recent matches has been the goalkeeper Cesar Rigamonti, who has almost single-handedly kept the team’s hopes through incredible saves. As a team, they have generally lacked the individual quality to play against most of the teams in the Primera division; the players do put in effort but it is not enough. They also face another problem at home - the fans tend to convey more anxiety towards the team.

The visitors themselves have gone 11 league games without a win; 6 draws and 5 defeats. They similarly struggle for goals, scoring three and conceding 8 in the last five games. However, they have been very tight defensively when playing away, gaining 4 draws and conceding only 3 goals in their last five away matches.

Hosts have no other option but to win and are expected to take the initiative in a 3-4-3 formation. But defeat would equally complicate the plight of the visitors, whose critical objective in this match is to avoid losing. The visitors will keep faith in their 4-1-4-1 away formation to nullify their opponents while waiting for any opportunity to counter-attack. Draw and Under 2.5 goals.

 

Bet Lost: Quilmes 0-1 Patronato

Edited June 6, 2017 by gogetta

[StevieDay1983]

Unfortunately, there are no ELO ratings available for these matches just yet. I will look to get them uploaded as soon as they become available. 

[gogetta]

Banfield vs Rosario Central

Hosts have displayed orderly and astonishingly reliable performance this season. They are currently in third spot with 51 points, just one point behind River Plate and five points behind table-leaders Boca Juniors; and in line for a spot in next year’s Copa Libertadores, with just three rounds to go! Banfield have been very consistent at home: 10 wins, two draws and just one defeat (against leaders Boca); and come into this game having won all the last five home fixtures. Coach Julio Cesar Falcioni prefers a closed game, counter-attacking through fast transitions through the middle.

Rosario Central seeks to hold down the last spot for next year’s Copa Sudamericana, in a crowded portion of the table. However, Defensa’s home defeat yesterday (1-2 against Independiente) has provided a reprieve for Rosario Central: a draw in today’s game would cement the coveted spot as the remaining rivals (Defensa and Talleres) have to win their remaining two games with large goal difference. Nevertheless, Coach Paolo Montero comes into this game with doubts in the offensive sector – which has stuttered in the last two fixtures (both ended 0-0). Key striker Marco Ruben is out for the season (knee operation). Strike-partner Teofilo Gutierez played 45 minutes in Colombia’s friendly against Cameroon in Spain and returned on Wednesday, requiring physical assessment prior to this game. Without his reference target-man and with a struggling offensive, Coach Montero’s primary objective was to tactically adapt to the circumstances – through a re-organized defence to allow for fluid attack via the wings.

Both coaches’ primary objective is to hold on to their current positions in the league table. With chasing pack breathing down their necks, the hosts have no option but to take the initiative; against a Rosario side with a stuttering attack at the moment while avoiding defeat will also fit its objective. Under 2.5 goals.