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McGregor v Diaz


JShort

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Opinion, not a pro tip

Odds are not great on this one, bookies are just as uncertain as we are.

Outrights

Diaz can be had at 6/5 with Ladbrokes for best odds I've seen at time of writing. The guy is very good at eating punches, can see him coming out on top if the game goes to the ground - McGregor struggled with the extra weight last time round and was unable to get up on his feet when he was taken down. Potential to get a Decision too if he keeps McGregor on the back foot

McGregor is slight favourite, best odds seem to be 4/5 at most places - recommended to go with Betfair as existing customers can take advantage of their offer of double odds if McGregor wins by TKO or KO (in free bets). Bookies are not favouring a KO/TKO decision here, Diaz has only lost once to TKO, to Josh Thomson 3 years ago. He has something to prove after submitting in their last meet and I can see him looking for the KO. Unprepared in the last fight, taking it on short notice and climbing weight divisions to compete, I can see him looking to make a statement after his record has been tarnished, before the hype train dies forever.

Braver people can take McGregor by TKO, KO or Disqualification at 6/4 with Betvictor, or Diaz by KO,TKO, Submission or Disqualification at 13/12 with Ladbrokes. Good odds on Diaz to win by submission with Ladbrokes at 3/1 if you are backing him. I'd be looking at Submission or Decision if I were to back Diaz.

In terms of rounds, according to the press McGregor is going to do it in 2 rounds. Personally I can't see it ending that quickly, Diaz has a granite chin. I'd be backing the latter half of the fight rounds 3-5 for a finish. Not confident enough in this to call a round and put money on it, but I want to say my uneducated guess would be the middle of round 3.

My Bet (not an expert by any means)

McGregor outright - 4/5 @ Betfair - Double odds if KO or TKO - 2pts

The Alternative

Diaz by Submission - 3/1 @ Ladbrokes

New Customer Offers

8/1 McGregor to beat Diaz @ Coral

6/1 McGregor or Diaz @ Paddypower & Betfair

 

(Some links taken from Oddschecker)

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