Premier League > Aug 20 - 22

[andrewcalo]

From bet365.com - 

 

[sajtion]

i don't think there will be any surprises this weekend. bankers should all win including, swansea, man city, tottenham, chelsea.

[neilovan]

3 hours ago, sajtion said:

i don't think there will be any surprises this weekend. bankers should all win including, swansea, man city, tottenham, chelsea.

It's the premier league and there are always surprises.

I certainly don't think Swansea are world beaters, and Hull are more than capable of defending and snatching the odd goal here.

I think Man City will probably win, but there is a huge difference between Stau Bucharest and Stoke. Will be  a close game. The home fans and Mark Hughes demand it !

Chelsea looked OK against West Ham, in the opener, but West Ham were rubbish. They could'nt beat the press, and could not pass the ball for 65 minutes. It was 'kick it away and lets defend again' !  As soon as Payet came on they were fine. If they are going to use Carrol properly, they have to find a way to get him the ball in the air which they did'nt do against Chelsea..

Choosing between Man United (1.44), Liverpool away (1.5) or Tottenham (1.4)  I would be taking Man United every time, over the other two bets. Liverpool away, turns me off the bet, and I just don't trust Spurs with my money yet.

I think Arsenal will have real problems with Leicester. Callum Chambers as the lynchpin of your defensive pairing is a concern  To me he looks out of his depth. 

Sunderland v Middlesbrough looks like a really tough game to call.

As a slight off topic.

Looking at Paul Merson and Mark Lawrenson who predict tips. These are reasonably experienced and learned pundits,  but are not that accurate. They don't hit bulls eyes that often. The EPL is just a seriously unpredictable league.  For me it's the toughest league in the world to bet on, as it's so competitive.

If you take a scale of 1 to 15 for a player. A 1 is a beginner, and a 15 is world class (Messi, Ronaldo etc). How much difference is there between players like Riyad Marez, Payet, Pogba, Mikatarian (say rank them at 12/15). They are also fit, strong, quick, and skilled. How much difference is there between a player with a 10 ranking versus a 15 ranking. In today's game, not that much. Also it is definitely easier to defend than attack and score goals.

90% of the Premier League teams can afford players of level 10 and better, so will we see less goals this season ?  It's far easier to bet and win on the other European leagues !

 

Edited August 19, 2016 by neilovan

[sajtion]

i wouldn't read too much in hull's victory over leicester. it was definitely unexpected but hull has got problems. swansea will do okay this season. i just look at the way their pre season was and spirit and consistency they have showed they will be top half team this season. when a team wins away i tend to back them at home in next game and for me swansea ticks that box. they can't go too wrong with francesco guidolin

Edited August 19, 2016 by sajtion

[Niceguy]

Hi guys I found awesome odds on the twitter @betinasia, and I share them on the screenshot... And also, if you have suggestion for this round of Premier league, I'm ready for discussion. My tips for this round are:

MUFC - 1
Liverpool - 2
Leicester - Aresenal - X
Chelsea - 2
Man City - 2

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, sajtion said:

i wouldn't read too much in hull's victory over leicester. it was definitely unexpected but hull has got problems. swansea will do okay this season. i just look at the way their pre season was and spirit and consistency they have showed they will be top half team this season. when a team wins away i tend to back them at home in next game and for me swansea ticks that box. they can't go too wrong with francesco guidolin

I hear what you are saying, but if Hull get a point here, they have 4 points after 2 games.  They prob need 38 to survive, so they are 9.5% there after 5% of their games. Well ahead and very happy. I think they will set up playing something close to a 4-5-1 formation in away games, and a 4-3-3 at home. It's hard to score against teams that do that.

[StevieDay1983]

It will be interesting to see how Tottenham do with Lloris out. A goalkeeper is such a pivotal part of organising the back line and Tottenham have never quite seemed the same team without Lloris in the side.

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

It will be interesting to see how Tottenham do with Lloris out. A goalkeeper is such a pivotal part of organising the back line and Tottenham have never quite seemed the same team without Lloris in the side.

I am not betting the Spurs game. These are the games Spurs blew last season. The supposed, home easy win. Palace, with Zaha, Townsend and Benteke upfront, have some real pace and athletic power. That's a difficult front three to contain ! Benteke is a nice fit, with a big guy, strong in the air, getting onto a good supply of crosses. The downside, is that not having played competitive football for weeks, he will be rusty.

Am a little disappointed with Spurs in the transfer market this time. They needed an injection of some new blood. Freshen up the squad.

I think the Lukaku decision in the WBA v Everton game is a big one. If Lukaku plays I think Everton win.  

It's a massive bonus to have a big front man, that can score goals, but more importantly, hold the ball up and be an effective link man.

 

Edited August 19, 2016 by neilovan

[StevieDay1983]

In the Manchester United vs Southampton game tonight I am fancying BTTS at 2.1 with Betfred. Over 2.5 goals scored at 1.95 with BetVictor looks a decent shout. I was going to back Zlatan Ibrahimovic as an anytime scorer but his odds are not great.

[winnerwinner]

14 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

In the Manchester United vs Southampton game tonight I am fancying BTTS at 2.1 with Betfred. Over 2.5 goals scored at 1.95 with BetVictor looks a decent shout. I was going to back Zlatan Ibrahimovic as an anytime scorer but his odds are not great.

Over 2.5 would be my choice as well.

[neilovan]

2 minutes ago, winnerwinner said:

Over 2.5 would be my choice as well.

I was looking at the over 2.5 but Jose scares me. He is almost happy to take the 2-0. It was a very popular score when Chelsea won the league. They won 15 games in 19 at home, 9 times times winning 1-0 or 2-0. I thought United looked fantastic defensively last week. This week's starting lineup looks even stronger. I think the only way you go over 2.5 is if United score 3 goals. 

The over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.91 or so, but Man United to score 3+ goals is 3.

So I would be taking the Man United to score 3+ instead of the over 2.5 goals. 

 

[winnerwinner]

1 minute ago, neilovan said:

I was looking at the over 2.5 but Jose scares me. He is almost happy to take the 2-0. It was a very popular score when Chelsea won the league. They won 15 games in 19 at home, 9 times times winning 1-0 or 2-0. I thought United looked fantastic defensively last week. This week's starting lineup looks even stronger. I think the only way you go over 2.5 is if United score 3 goals. 

The over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.91 or so, but Man United to score 3+ goals is 3.

So I would be taking the Man United to score 3+ instead of the over 2.5 goals. 

 

You don't believe Soton will score?

[neilovan]

I don't think so. United, with Herrera and Fellaini in front of the back four were unreal against Bournemouth. The shape was terrific. 

To me the defensive pairing's  of Mikatarian and Valencia on right , and Pogba and Shaw on left look rock solid. I really like the center-backs as well. Bailly oozes power, and Blind has the smarts and experience.  If that fails you probably have the best keeper in the league to bail you out.

[winnerwinner]

13 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I don't think so. United, with Herrera and Fellaini in front of the back four were unreal against Bournemouth. The shape was terrific. 

To me the defensive pairing's  of Mikatarian and Valencia on right , and Pogba and Shaw on left look rock solid. I really like the center-backs as well. Bailly oozes power, and Blind has the smarts and experience.  If that fails you probably have the best keeper in the league to bail you out.

Just out of curiosity, are you a united supporter?

[neilovan]

59 minutes ago, winnerwinner said:

Just out of curiosity, are you a united supporter?

Not really a supporter, but I have been watching them since I was a kid ( the disappointments of the 1976 FA cup final and 1978 FA finals springs to mind), so I go back way before the Fergie juggernaught. Essentially went through what Liverpool supporters are going through now. Years and years of failing to win the league, but worse, in not competing. I live in South Africa, but I've been around the block and seen a  few things  

I come from a sporting background, and in it's purest way I love sports, and sporting performance.  I don't really care what sport, but just to see highly talented athletes leave it out there and give it all.  For me it's sickening to see the Olympics played out in front of no crowd. Just awful, to work so hard at something and get such limited recognition. Every athlete at the Olympics is a champion ! Come first or last, does not matter to me...

Now I like to combine my systems analyst background, with sports prediction.  

I think United will win a lot of games this season, at way better odds than Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG and Bayern Munich.  The bottom line ...

I BET and I want to WIN !

  

Edited August 19, 2016 by neilovan

[dave5perth]

Anyone placing a bet on Man utd v southampton game, Sportsbook (Betfair) has a matching bet inplay offer up to £50. Just thought I drop this in, encase its something that may not have been mentioned, and would be of any benefit having a flutter on game.

[neilovan]

I'm also really looking forward to the Everton game. They have done excellent business in the transfer window, and Ronald Koeman is a legend. I think he won almost everything, just not a world Cup. 85 Caps for Holland, 2 champions league, European Championship winner 1988. It's a season of change for Everton. The fact that they don't bow to Chelsea, regarding Lukaku, shows their intent !

It's a huge mental shift for them, Instead of going into games as underdogs or equals, people will be expecting more from them. Can they deliver, and do it consistently. For me the intrigue of  upping the performance, and solving the puzzle of breaking opponents down,  makes it the watch of the 3pm games. 

I think Everton will beat WBA.

Edited August 19, 2016 by neilovan

[malabgd]

West Bromwich v Everton FC

West Bromwich: Chris Brunt (0/0 m)

Everton FC: Seamus Coleman (0/0 d), Callum Connolly (0/0 d), Tyias Browning (0/0 d), Matthew Pennington (0/0 d), Muhamed Bešić (0/0 d)

 

Leicester City v Arsenal

Leicester City: no absences

Arsenal: Laurent Koscielny (0/0 d, probably in), Olivier Giroud (0/0 f, last season top scorer), Mesut Özil (0/0 m)(both doubtful), Alex Iwobi (1/0 f), Aaron Ramsey (1/0 m), Danny Welbeck (0/0 f), Per Mertesacker (0/0 d), Carl Jenkinson (0/0 d), Gabriel Paulista (0/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[andrewcalo]

12 hours ago, neilovan said:

It's the premier league and there are always surprises.

lol this is the banker right here.

Possible Swansea draw, Man City upset, for sure... where's allthethings? he/she knows...

[andrewcalo]

12 hours ago, neilovan said:

Also it is definitely easier to defend than attack and score goals.

90% of the Premier League teams can afford players of level 10 and better, so will we see less goals this season ?  It's far easier to bet and win on the other European leagues !

I think opposite - this year the season winner will be the team that is best playing fast and loose, i.e. Liverpool, Everton, possibly Arsenal, and Man U, if Jose wises up about his favoured style (didn't work so well last year) and they can work out the brainwashing under Van Gaal.

Edited August 19, 2016 by andrewcalo

[StevieDay1983]

Is anyone backing any first goalscorers today? I quite like the look of Philippe Coutinho at 7.5 with bet365 and Eden Hazard at 7.0 with BetVictor.

I am also considering a five fold BTTS accumulator of...

Stoke vs Manchester City

Burnley vs Liverpool

West Brom vs Everton

Leicester vs Arsenal

West Ham v Bournemouth

Odds of 17.12 with bet365.

[neilovan]

11 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Is anyone backing any first goalscorers today? I quite like the look of Philippe Coutinho at 7.5 with bet365 and Eden Hazard at 7.0 with BetVictor.

I am also considering a five fold BTTS accumulator of...

Stoke vs Manchester City

Burnley vs Liverpool

West Brom vs Everton

Leicester vs Arsenal

West Ham v Bournemouth

Odds of 17.12 with bet365.

I have a feeling that Everton will bomb you here. They have bought well, have an excellent coach. I love defensive purchases first. Get your own house in order, and become really difficult to beat.  Then, you don't need at least 2 goals to win a game.  I think Ashley Williams is a fantastic purchase, and Koeman understands defending.  Prob one of the best buys of the whole Summer.

( And there's Arsene Wenger saying he can't find center backs). He's not looking hard enough ...  

[StevieDay1983]

9 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I have a feeling that Everton will bomb you here. They have bought well, have an excellent coach. I love defensive purchases first. Get your own house in order, and become really difficult to beat.  Then, you don't need at least 2 goals to win a game.  I think Ashley Williams is a fantastic purchase, and Koeman understands defending.  Prob one of the best buys of the whole Summer.

( And there's Arsene Wenger saying he can't find center backs). He's not looking hard enough ...  

In the long term, I totally agree neilovan. I think over the course of the season things will tighten up but I think it will take a month or two for the players to gel. Tight defensive units don't just happen overnight and I think they could be slightly vulnerable over the next few weeks as their defensive line settles.