The 4/1 or Higher Theory

[Sir Puntalot]

This has been a long standing theory that no team in the EPL should be more than 4/1 due to the strength of the league in general.

Soooooo, on that basis, we'll see if we can prove or disprove that theory over the season.  All at bet365 odds.  

[Sir Puntalot]

West Ham 5/1
Sunderland 12/1 

All odds at Bet365.  

[StevieDay1983]

4/1 is perhaps a little low but I would say over 5/1 and it's a little bit harsh. That said, ultimately, you have to think that if you have say Manchester City playing Hull City at the Etihad Stadium then what ratio of games would Hull City win? One in every five in that case seems a little low. So in that respect, higher odds seem more understandable.

[allthethings]

Well, all I do is study sides that are large underdogs, home and away. Eight years of Premier League data in my database show the following records by underdogs to favorites of 2.0 or below:

Away dogs up to 3.99: 23-29-42 (24% win, 31% draw)

4.0 to 4.99: 64-91-180 (19% win, 27% draw)

5.0 to 5.99: 33-39-99 (19% win, 23% draw)

6.0 to 7.99: 28-52-150 (12% win, 23% draw)

8.0 and above: 18-18-119 (12% win, 12% draw)

As you can see, draws do better than wins if you're choosing the outright markets, and you'll lose playing handicaps in all cases except the first.

Home dogs up to 3.99: 12-9-13 (35% win, 26% draw)

4.0 to 4.99: 29-47-78 (19% win, 31% draw)

5.0 to 5.99: 20-29-71 (17% win, 24% draw)

6.0 to 7.99: 23-25-81 (18% win, 19% draw)

8.0 and above: 5-8-38 (10% win, 16% draw)

The first two are decent bets, anyway.

[allthethings]

Oh...let me just say, week one in Premier is usually a good week for such bets. If you go back and look, you find that somebody like Villa was always winning as a dog of 4.8, or Sunderland or Newcastle were getting draws as away dogs of 11.0.

[andrewcalo]

Cheers allthethings V. useful.

[StevieDay1983]

5 hours ago, allthethings said:

Well, all I do is study sides that are large underdogs, home and away. Eight years of Premier League data in my database show the following records by underdogs to favorites of 2.0 or below:

Away dogs up to 3.99: 23-29-42 (24% win, 31% draw)

4.0 to 4.99: 64-91-180 (19% win, 27% draw)

5.0 to 5.99: 33-39-99 (19% win, 23% draw)

6.0 to 7.99: 28-52-150 (12% win, 23% draw)

8.0 and above: 18-18-119 (12% win, 12% draw)

As you can see, draws do better than wins if you're choosing the outright markets, and you'll lose playing handicaps in all cases except the first.

Home dogs up to 3.99: 12-9-13 (35% win, 26% draw)

4.0 to 4.99: 29-47-78 (19% win, 31% draw)

5.0 to 5.99: 20-29-71 (17% win, 24% draw)

6.0 to 7.99: 23-25-81 (18% win, 19% draw)

8.0 and above: 5-8-38 (10% win, 16% draw)

The first two are decent bets, anyway.

Really interesting information there mate. Do you keep a similar record for other divisions? If you do it would be interesting to see your results in the other threads.

[allthethings]

Yes I do. Don't have time at the moment, but League Two has been best for outright wins by underdogs (away, under 4.99). Championship the best league for draws. National used to also be a great league for draws, but not anymore.

[Sir Puntalot]

@allthethingsInteresting stats. Look forward to seeing the rest.  

[Sir Puntalot]

After allthethings posted the historical stats above, didn't seem much point in carrying on with this.  

[andrewcalo]

@allthethings any update of this post? 

Are you watching the Premier League in particular this season?

p.s.s can a mod tell me how to change allthethings above so he knows he is mentioned Or do for me? Cheers.

[TomWilko]

Games are harder to call than ever, apart from Chelsea who seem to be absolutely flying! I would take 4/1 on any team for value.. unless they are playing Chelsea that is!!

[Sir Puntalot]

On 18/12/2016, 14:22:23, andrewcalo said:

@allthethings any update of this post? 

Are you watching the Premier League in particular this season?

p.s.s can a mod tell me how to change allthethings above so he knows he is mentioned Or do for me? Cheers.

@andrewcaloI missed this sorry!  

You basically type @ and then the name. If you type the name first and then try and input @ before it, it doesn't seem to like it!  

Like this attached

[allthethings]

Sorry mates, didn't realize this was sitting here waiting for a reply. I did get a notification, though, and now that I see it...

Premier has performed about to expectations. 7-16-60 in total by the big dogs away, 10-7-29 by the home dogs. The latter is a bit of a surprise that they've managed outright wins when they ordinarily get draws.

Championship has been abysmal this season, taking 9 units of mine as the sides have seemingly forgotten all about how to get 1 point. Away dogs there are 21-14-59. Something for sure is different in 2016-17.

The league that has been lights out this season for draws is League One...13-30-57 for all away dogs (30% draws), and 34% if you just take dogs under 5.99. I missed it...by the time I realized what was happening it was too late, as I was expecting a reversion to the mean that hasn't yet come.

League Two has been as I predicted (which continues about a seven-year run), of wins by away dogs, particularly those in the range of under 4.99 (18-19-36). I've gotten very lucky there...I've won a few flyers, had sides draw when I called draw, that sort of thing. +16.5 units currently. If you're looking to the future, February is usually a month for draws, and then March is a month for wins by dogs.