Sir Puntalot

Portugal Primeira/Segunda 2016/17

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6 hours ago, pulsar12 said:

Boavista - Sporting

Boavista has been a solid team, mainly at home. I will try them at odds 11.50. Sporting has Adrien back again, but even though, they didn't yet prove their consistency...

i did a mistake on analysis of this tip. Didn't know that Medeiros,  Idris, Bukia e Henrique are not available for boavista this match. It loses all the value without this players, it becomes a b team. Sporting already 0-1 up, probably will score more... handicaps for sporting value.

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Chaves - Moreirense (ft 2-1): expect chaves to win here, they are doing a good season and play better football than Moreirense. chaves win > 2.35 - won

Nacional - Tondela (ft 3-2): Nacional is under enoumous pressure and this match can be decisive for the future of the coach. They absolutely must win this match. However on the other side we have a tricky Tondela team who is cabable of the worse but can also surprise its opponents. I think Tondela can win this as Petit should employ a defensive style and exploit emotive Nacional on the counter-attacks. tondela win > 3.75 - lost

Benfica - Sporting (ft 2-1): Benfica goes with a weakened defense for this game, Luisao+Lindelof as CB. (Grimaldo and Eliseu still injured). This duo has been conceding some goals on latest games, Luisao seems slow and Lindelof unsynchronized. On the attack i think they are fine, Jonas may return on this match and only Andre Horta is missing. Sporting is under big pressure since they got out of the european competitions midweek and this game is decisive for their hopes to win the league. Their biggest weapons on this match i think will be Gelson and Adrien. Even though history says head-to-head are are tight low scoring matches, in this case I think this match has potential for goals as Sporting is very likely to score to this Benfica defense but I believe Benfica coach should employ an attacking mindset to score more than Sporting.

Adrien Silva to score anytime > 5.95 - lost

Gelson Martins to score anytime > 4.65 - lost

Benfica EH-1 > 3.85 - lost

over 4,5 > 6.55 - lost

BTTS > 1.80 - won

Edited by pulsar12

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Boavista - Guimaraes

Boavista still has 2 major elements suspended (Henrique and Idris), and this team is much weaker without  Idris.  Guimares has Moussa Marega back, the league top scorer and most lethal player on counters.

Guimaraes EH-1 > 3.75 - lost

Guimaraes EH-2 > 8.00 - lost

FT 1-2

Edited by pulsar12

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Estoril - Benfica (ft 0-1)

Estoril has sacked their coach "Fabiano" and hired spanish "Pedro Carmona", which is know for his poor results on Betis (as assistant coach, betis was relegated) and also has few knowledge of portuguese league (. This is also his first time as a main coach). He told to the media that he wants to win Benfica and he wants to win all the league games and go to Europa League... he also said that has been working very hard last days to implement his ideas to the players..... well i think he is rushing too fast and overconfident, so I expect a disorganized and unbalanced Estoril team, so Benfica can make a goalfest on this one. Also, Estoril has some important players unavailable

Benfica EH -4 > 8.75

1st half Benfica EH -1  > 3.25

1st half Benfica EH -2  > 7.75

1st half Benfica EH -3  > 15

over 4,5 > 4.25

all lost

Rio Ave - Nacional (ft 2-1)

Nacional turn around last game from 0-2 to win 3-2 against Tondela, but this was pretty much due to Tondela demerit than anything else. Just look at the way how Nacional goals were scored and you see what I mean... Rio Ave shows much better football than Nacional and should win this.

Rio Ave win > 1.86 - won

Moreirense - Arouca (ft 1-4)

Arouca has been improving lately, I hope to see them reach the past season quality soon. Last match home loss against Rio Ave is misleading, Arouca did well on the match.

Arouca win > 3.50 - won 

 

 

Edited by pulsar12

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portugalodds.jpg.46e58973c74686d09eeb92c

Going to get more active on this topic lads. Here are the fixtures for December 21st - 23rd. What are you thinking? @pulsar12 and @jamiedavies02, your tips so far have been interesting reading. As somebody that has never been overly familiar with the Portuguese league I am keen to learn more.

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Some drama is going on Portuguese football - Referees are under a lot of pressure by the clubs and fans after the losses of Porto and Sporting on last league cup matches. (Benfica was the only one to win). this may have influence on the result of the big club matches this week.

Tondela - Arouca (08-Jan) > FT 1-2

Tondela is fragile team at the moment, since their defeat on Nacional. Playing at home against an effective Arouca, I see potential away team to win and by more than one goal.

Arouca win > 3.00

Arouca EH-1 > 5.35

 

Edited by pulsar12

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On 12/16/2016, 2:04:54, jamiedavies02 said:

My shots ratings/ data for the season so far (does not include Porto v Maritimo from last night)

Por.jpg

Great stuff there. :ok

Any chance of a key for the headings of the table?

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I'm doing some statistical analysis on the Portuguese league and have found that Porto are quite reliant on Andre Silva and Diogo Jota for goals. Their midfielders just don't chip in at all especially with Brahimi gone for the month to play for Algeria. Porto tend to dominate and win a lot of set pieces which interestingly makes the two centre backs 3rd and 4th most likely to score in my expected goals model. Sample size isn't that big and my model isn't going to be perfect but at 12/1 I think there's a fair bit of value there.

Pacos de Ferreira v Porto - Marcano to score anytime @ 12/1 William Hill & Felipe to score anytime @ 12/1 William Hill

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GD Estoril v Marítimo

GD Estoril: Mano (7/0 d, doubtful), Lucas Farias (9/0 d)

Marítimo: China (11/0 d)

 

Vitória Guimarães v SL Benfica

Vitória Guimarães: Miranda (10/0 m, doubtful), Marega (12/10 f, top scorer)

SL Benfica: Grimaldo (8/2 d), Eliseu (3/0 d), Celis (2/0 m), Jiménez (10/5 f, 2nd top scorer)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Chaves - Sporting (pt cup, tuesday)

There is an enourmous pressure affecting Sporting at the moment. Nobody is happy with the team performances, and the president attitudes also does not help. On the last draw on saturday, just after the game finnishes , president gone straight into the dressroom and had a ranto against the players performance blaming them for the results, with players immediatly not agreeing and responding. This leaked into the media and on the next day, the same players gone to tell on controversial interview on club tv channel saying it was a 'normal' discussion. 

Its obvious the players are not the ones to blame for the team bad performance. Coach and president are.

Chaves worth a try here, facing all the sporting drama.

Chaves to win >5.85

(1-0 ft)

Edited by pulsar12

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On 1/6/2017, 6:38:56, arsenalfh said:

I'm doing some statistical analysis on the Portuguese league and have found that Porto are quite reliant on Andre Silva and Diogo Jota for goals. Their midfielders just don't chip in at all especially with Brahimi gone for the month to play for Algeria. Porto tend to dominate and win a lot of set pieces which interestingly makes the two centre backs 3rd and 4th most likely to score in my expected goals model. Sample size isn't that big and my model isn't going to be perfect but at 12/1 I think there's a fair bit of value there.

Pacos de Ferreira v Porto - Marcano to score anytime @ 12/1 William Hill & Felipe to score anytime @ 12/1 William Hill

Marcano scored this weekend. Worth keeping this up at least until Brahimi gets back who would slot in ahead of the centre backs.

Starters from the Moreirense game:

Porto Player xG v Moreirense.PNG

Edited by arsenalfh

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Maritimo - Sporting

Facing the current drama at Sporting the obvious bet goes for Maritimo at that price.

Maritimo to win > 5.30

(2-2 FT)

Benfica - Tondela

Poor Tondela always as been taking points from big clubs, the exception is against Benfica :D. On the last occasions between these two is not that rare Benfica to score plenty on the first half.

Benfica EH -2 HT > 5.30

(0-0 HT)

 

Edited by pulsar12

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Estoril - Sporting (25/02/2017, 18:15)

Adrien is currently injured and will be out of the field for at least 6 weeks. And even with Adrien on the field on the last match against Rio Ave, Sporting was very lucky to come with a win because Rio Ave had plenty of missed chances. In addition to miss Adrien, another factor against them is the tense climate at the club. Now from Estoril, I was not expecting better results with the new coach, but the truth is that Estoril is improving and they have been unlucky in not getting better results lately. They will go with 2 important players out: Moreira (GK) and Mattheus (M), but even though the odds are good facing a fragile Sporting.  

Estoril win > 8.25

Estoril over 1,5 goals > 5.00

FT 0-2 Lost, incredible how Estoril looked like a team of retards today.

 

Edited by pulsar12

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SL Benfica v GD Chaves

SL Benfica: López (7/3 d), Grimaldo (8/2 d), Fejsa (19/0 m), Horta (8/1 m)

GD Chaves: Ricardo (16/0 first goalkeeper), Leandro Freire (18/0 d), Fábio Santos (6/0 d), Felipe Lopes (6/0 d), Mathaus (0/0 d), Ponck (16/0 m, on loan from Benfica), Hamdou Elhouni (8/1 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Moreirense - Boavista (Friday 03/03)

Boavista haven't lost away last 6 matches (3W, 3D). Two of those draws were against Benfica (3-3) and Chaves (0-0). To note that Boavista has been improving in general with solid football. Last game against Porto they played good even without their key player Idris (suspended), but he is back for this match. Since January Moreirense has not impressing with disappointing home draws against Estoril and Feirense.

AH+0 Boavista > 1.93  (RETURNED)

FT 0-0

Edited by pulsar12

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Braga - Arouca (04/03 16:00 UTC) FT 3-1
Braga win EH-1 > 2.30 WON
seems that Arouca has returned to underperforming again, on the last match home match they let a 1-0 lead to become a 1-2 loss against belenenses, and they lost 2-0 against Chaves on the previous away match. The new coach 'M. Machado' may have played a role to this results, since his arrival they lost all two games. Braga has also bad results lately but, they are being unlucky in my opinion. May this game once for all be a win in style for them. Key Arouca player 'N Coelho' (D) is out, but 'Artur'(M) is recovered from injury and will play. For Braga, FWs 'Pedro Santos' is cleared from suspension and and 'Hassan' is recovered from injury, so they will be available.

 

Porto - Nacional (04/03 18:15 UTC) FT 7-0
Porto EH-1 > 1.30 WON
Should be an easy win for Porto, they are currently on fire with Soares and Nacional has been conceeding many goals away while scoring very few, they are on relegation zone.

 

Feirense - Benfica (04/03 20:30 UTC) FT 0-1
Feirense to win > 9.25 LOST
This is a tricky match, because Benfica has CL game next week. And I remember that one of the Benfica worst performances this season was before a CL match on the next days. It was a 2-1 defeat against Maritimo. So at this price I think it's worth the risk on Feirense which has 3 W on the last 6 matches at home.

 

Sporting - Guimaraes (05/03 20:15 UTC) FT 1-1
Guimaraes to win > 7.00 LOST
The obvious value here is on Guimaraes with such great odds. Sporting playing weak football at the moment, and on top of that their key player Adrien is not playing because of injury. Even with Adrien playing on last games at home, they struggled to win against Feirense and got very lucky to win against Rio Ave. No reason to believe this time will be different. Guimaraes has been improving again since Marega return.

Edited by pulsar12

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Rio Ave - Moreirense (12/03 18:00 UTC) FT 3-2

This game screams like under 2,5. Both teams struggle to score recently. Also on every head to head match between this two teams, only 1 out of 6 games resulted in over 2,5. No team news to suggest any deviation. So even at 1,44 odds I think it there is some value. 

Under 2,5 > 1.44 lost

Tondela - Sporting (11/03 20:30 UTC) FT 1-4

Sporting still without Adrien, and now without Alan Ruiz (one of the best Sporting performers lately). Tondela is poor team, but their best performances are against top teams. Value is all on Tondela, facing a fragile Sporting.

Tondela to win > 9 lost

Guimaraes - Estoril FT 3-3 

Guimaraes should win this easy. Soares exit to Porto got significant impact on their goal scoring ability but they are now re-gaining momentum. key player Rafael Miranda is also back to available list and should play (probably not the full match). Estoril coach got sacked 2 days ago  because of their poor performances. I don't see any other outcome than Guimaraes winning this one, at home, and with great support from their fans.

Guimaraes to win > 1.50 lost

Edited by pulsar12

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Nacional - Paços de Ferreira

Well in this game home team Nacional plays against Paços de Ferreira and the home team has one of the worst attacks in the Portuguese league with only 8 goals scored and 15 conceded in total in their field. Nacional dismissed his former coach Manuel Machado and hired Predrag Jokanovi, in early January, but in my opinion they played worse football than it was, and since this coach joining the club has not yet been able to win any match, with 5 draws and 4 losses and only 2 goals scored !!!!!. On the other hand, Paços have done most of their points at home, but away is a different story, they are 16º worst team in the league with only 13 goals scored and 27 conceded. they have not won a league match since 17/09/16!!! and in this time Paços only achive 2 draws... the rest has been only defeats !!! It will be dangerous to say who will win this game, this 2 teams play poor football and haven´t no offensive ideas but Paços could score a goal on counter attack... will be dangerous to predict who will win this game or whether it will be another draw for these two formations. One thing is sure on my mind, will be a surprise if there are many goals here.

Pick: Under (-2.25) stake: 4/10 Odds: 1.83 Pinnacle

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Benfica - Belenenses

Benfica have been a strong team this year in the league specialy at home, they have not give many chances to their opponents to organize their attacks, put many pressure on the adversaries organizacion and in addition to that is a lethal team in the counter attack. Benfica has the second best offensive at home with 34 goals scored and 7 conceded, while on the other turn, Belenenses away record have only 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. The team from belém has been rising lately with some outstanding performances, but in my opinion it is not enough to win this benfica that has his pride hurt after the heavy defeat of 4-0 against dortmund in the champions league. I believe it is a one-way game with benfica looking for the goal from the first minute and it will not give many chances to Belenenses organise there offensive in the attack and get to reach their goal with danger many times.

Pick: total corners Belém Under (-3.5) 

Stake: 3/10 odds: 2.04 1xbet

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