Portugal Primeira/Segunda 2016/17

[Sir Puntalot]

[Aposta Ganha]

Sporting

18 : 15

Marítimo

 Over 2.5

 

Tondela

20 : 30

Benfica

Benfica HA-1

[StevieDay1983]

Aposta Ganha, as our apparent resident Portuguese football expert, give us your five fold acca for the Primeira this weekend.

I'm thinking Porto, Moreirense, Sporting CP, Setubal, and Estoril at 23.38 with BetVictor.

[Teodore]

Any 

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Aposta Ganha, as our apparent resident Portuguese football expert, give us your five fold acca for the Primeira this weekend.

I'm thinking Porto, Moreirense, Sporting CP, Setubal, and Estoril at 23.38 with BetVictor.

Any reasoning about Moreirense, Setubal and Estoril?

[malabgd]

Rio Ave v FC Porto

Rio Ave (last season): Capela (11/0 d), Filipe Augusto (m, newcomer), Guedes (26/6 f, top scorer)

FC Porto (last season): Hyun-Jun Suk (9/1 f, went on loan)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Odyssey]

Rio Ave even with their good season last year only took 2 points from the top 3 clubs,with the current injuries too this looks tough for them.Porto slumped to a distant 3rd last season,but do have a strong squad,theyll see plenty of the ball, and with their attacking line up should win. Bet - Porto 4/6 

[StevieDay1983]

15 hours ago, Teodore said:

Any 

Any reasoning about Moreirense, Setubal and Estoril?

I just like the odds. They are still considered favourites at home with the bookies but all over 2.0 so as part of an accumulator I thought it would be worth a punt. I also included Moreirense and Estoril on an accumulator last season with both coming in so a bit of a heart-based decision as well.

[StevieDay1983]

Odds provided by bet365.

No surprises that after two weeks, it is Porto and Sporting CP leading the way. However, they play each other this weekend so at least one team will lose their 100% record. Who are you lads backing?

[pulsar12]

After the big blow defeat last game, I expect Sporting big win today. The reason for the last defeat was mainly due to overconfidence from the coach Jesus after real madrid game and a little fatigue on players.Jesus is good tactically and knows about the game, however all hell break lose when he get overconfident and speaks too much. After it cools down, usually the next game will be very good performance. This cycle repeats over and over again. On the other hand, Estoril didnt show anything special this season so far. Jesus cooled down after the loss and so I expect great performance from the players today. Fancy Sporting to score more than two before HT or/and more than 4 FT.

Any unq HT >8.00 @ betfair

any unq FT & home win >3.90 @ betfair

[pulsar12]

On 9/23/2016, 4:17:09, pulsar12 said:

(...). Fancy Sporting to score more than two before HT or/and more than 4 FT.

Any unq HT >8.00 @ >betfair  --- lost

any unq FT & home win >3.90 @ >betfair --- won

FT 4-2

 

Edited October 1, 2016 by pulsar12

[pulsar12]

Tondela - Pacos Ferreira ( Fri 30 Sep)

Tondela trend mantains as the past season: Lack of character. Most of the time the players dont connect with each other and the defense commit a lot of unforced errors. Last game against Maritimo they lost 2-0 but it could be 5-0 or more. Tondela seem to only play somewhat good if either they face a big club or during bad weather conditions. I recall from the last season, the best results they got it was when at least one of those conditions were present. Anything else, players are too inconsistent and any reasonable odds are value for the other team to win.

weather will be good tomorrow in Tondela city and no major change on both squads.

Ferreira to win >2.6

Edited September 29, 2016 by pulsar12

[pulsar12]

Nacional - Porto

Nacional has been improving on the front. forward Hamzaoui looks with great confidence after comfortable win against Feirense (last match), and the attack has been improving in general. Nacional regular players Victor Garcia (RWB) and  Tiago Rodrigues (Midfield) cannot play because they are on-loan players from Porto. Nuno Campos should replace Vitor Garcia and Aly Ghazal to replace Tiago Rodrigues. Cádiz & Willyan still doubtful because of injury. Porto has the full-squad available. Porto should win this game, but Nacional should score at least one goal because of Porto inconsistent defense.

BTTS > 1.90

[pulsar12]

On 9/29/2016, 11:14:32, pulsar12 said:

Tondela - Pacos Ferreira ( Fri 30 Sep)

Tondela trend mantains as the past season: Lack of character. Most of the time the players dont connect with each other and the defense commit a lot of unforced errors. Last game against Maritimo they lost 2-0 but it could be 5-0 or more. Tondela seem to only play somewhat good if either they face a big club or during bad weather conditions. I recall from the last season, the best results they got it was when at least one of those conditions were present. Anything else, players are too inconsistent and any reasonable odds are value for the other team to win.

weather will be good tomorrow in Tondela city and no major change on both squads.

Ferreira to win >2.6

FT 2-1, Tondela did well today and Ferreira appalling. 

Edited September 30, 2016 by pulsar12

[pulsar12]

On 9/30/2016, 1:18:39, pulsar12 said:

Nacional - Porto

Nacional has been improving on the front. forward Hamzaoui looks with great confidence after comfortable win against Feirense (last match), and the attack has been improving in general. Nacional regular players Victor Garcia (RWB) and  Tiago Rodrigues (Midfield) cannot play because they are on-loan players from Porto. Nuno Campos should replace Vitor Garcia and Aly Ghazal to replace Tiago Rodrigues. Cádiz & Willyan still doubtful because of injury. Porto has the full-squad available. Porto should win this game, but Nacional should score at least one goal because of Porto inconsistent defense.

BTTS > 1.90

FT 0-4 pick lost. 

[pulsar12]

Today there is a league cup match

Feirense - Tondela (16:00 GMT+1)

Murillo will not play for Tondela and Tiago Silva is doubtful for Feirense. Tondela is confident and motivated by the late win against Pacos de Ferreira, but anyway they can screw up anytime. So, all I am gonna use to justify my pick is Tondela players inconsistent psychological attitude. Feirense is more solid mentally.

Feirense EH -1 > 3.85

 

[pulsar12]

3 hours ago, pulsar12 said:

Today there is a league cup match

Feirense - Tondela (16:00 GMT+1)

Murillo will not play for Tondela and Tiago Silva is doubtful for Feirense. Tondela is confident and motivated by the late win against Pacos de Ferreira, but anyway they can screw up anytime. So, all I am gonna use to justify my pick is Tondela players inconsistent psychological attitude. Feirense is more solid mentally.

Feirense EH -1 > 3.85

 

ft 3-0 pick won.

[pulsar12]

Portugal cup games coming next week. So far there is a no brainer bet for me:

Sertanense - Tondela (16 oct)

I already talked about Tondela players psych weakness, as always this is the major factor on my bets against them unless proven otherwise in future. Additionally they have 3 players out for this game because of red card punishment(keeper Ricardo Janota and wings Fábio Nunes and Mamadu) Sertanense is playing on a 3rd league championship but they are onfire, with 8 games in row winning and on 1st place of the table.

I believe there are good chances ( i would say 40%) for Sertanense to win this

Sertanense to win >4.80

 

[StevieDay1983]

On 12/10/2016, 10:47:06, pulsar12 said:

Portugal cup games coming next week. So far there is a no brainer bet for me:

Sertanense - Tondela (16 oct)

I already talked about Tondela players psych weakness, as always this is the major factor on my bets against them unless proven otherwise in future. Additionally they have 3 players out for this game because of red card punishment(keeper Ricardo Janota and wings Fábio Nunes and Mamadu) Sertanense is playing on a 3rd league championship but they are onfire, with 8 games in row winning and on 1st place of the table.

I believe there are good chances ( i would say 40%) for Sertanense to win this

Sertanense to win >4.80

 

Interesting tip there @pulsar12. How familiar with Portuguese football are you?

[pulsar12]

7 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Interesting tip there @pulsar12. How familiar with Portuguese football are you?

I'm portuguese living in portugal . Since last year I am focusing in depth on our league football. 

[StevieDay1983]

11 hours ago, pulsar12 said:

I'm portuguese living in portugal . Since last year I am focusing in depth on our league football. 

That's great news. We will look to update this weekly then if you're happy to keep coming into this area and giving your thoughts.

[pulsar12]

On 10/12/2016, 10:47:06, pulsar12 said:

Portugal cup games coming next week. So far there is a no brainer bet for me:

Sertanense - Tondela (16 oct)

I already talked about Tondela players psych weakness, as always this is the major factor on my bets against them unless proven otherwise in future. Additionally they have 3 players out for this game because of red card punishment(keeper Ricardo Janota and wings Fábio Nunes and Mamadu) Sertanense is playing on a 3rd league championship but they are onfire, with 8 games in row winning and on 1st place of the table.

I believe there are good chances ( i would say 40%) for Sertanense to win this

Sertanense to win >4.80

 

lost - FT 0-4 

[pulsar12]

Sporting - Tondela (Saturday)

Tomorrow will be light rainy day on Lisbon, which will be good for Tondela fast forwarders Murillo, Moreno, Wagner. Additionally, Tondela players usually put good performances against the big clubs. last season they got a draw here and could have won. Sporting still without Adrien which is very important player for the team coherence. Expect a good performance from Tondela and not so good from Sporting.

X2 > 4.5 

Tondela win > 16.0

Belenenses - Benfica (Sunday)

Belenenses facing internal issues recently involving the previous coach, the management and a player named Sturgeon, which is one of the best Belenenses players in my opinion. The previous coach decided to leave the club 2 weeks ago (prior to 1-0 to win against Boavista and then 2-0 loss against poor Académica from 2nd league, already under the command of new coach Quim Machado). The fans are not happy with the management decisions always cycling the club with many coaches on the last seasons due to internal conflict. By the way, the previous coach ( Velazquez ) was doing very good with the club and one of the reasons for the breakup was a recent issue with player Sturgeon (Management wanted to punish this player because of lack of focus on the club but the coach was not in agreement). 

Belenenses probably without Miguel Rosa (important player) and Vítor Gomes both due to injury.

Benfica still without important players (Jonas, Horta, Almeida, Rafa), nevertheless I expect them to win comfortably.

Benfica EH -2 > 3.95

[pulsar12]

On 10/21/2016, 11:37:15, pulsar12 said:

Sporting - Tondela (Saturday)

X2 > 4.5 

Tondela win > 16.0

Belenenses - Benfica (Sunday)

Benfica EH -2 > 3.95

Tondela almost win

[helderjma]

League Cup

Paços Ferreira and Nacional are to play the access phase League Cup groups (2nd round). The history of games between the two clubs favors the National in seven games, lost one, drawn three and won three others.
The last game between the two teams was four days ago, and there was a tie to a ball.
The Paços Ferreira wants to enjoy the home advantage to reach the group stage of this competition. In the last five home games have 2 losses, 2 draws and a win. One of the weaknesses of the team is its defense, have conceded goals in seven of their last ten. Turn your attack also makes a lot of goals. (Twelve goals in eight league days)
The National playing out of doors is a more vulnerable team, since in the last ten games, lost seven, drawn one and won two (one for the Cup of Portugal, against a CNS club). His defense suffers enough goals in ten conceded in eight of them.
Most likely for this game is to defeat the National, although the last away game was against Paços Ferreira and there was a tie to a goal, I think the Hall has more staff and men who can unbalance the game as Pedrinho Ricardo Valente or Welthon up front.

Pacos Ferreira to win

[Filixlion]

Nacional - Sporting Lisbon

The history between these 2 teams, cleary favors Sporting. In the last 7 years, visitors won 4 and draw 3. Last season Sporting win 0-4 agaisnt Nacional. The home team as a poor record at home this season with only 1 win and 4 losses, in my opinion because they have some defensive problems in there game.
On the other hand, Sporting regulary score at least 1 goal in the last 8 league matches. For more they can not afford to lose more points and let escape benfica and Porto (who are playing next round) to fight for the portuguese tittle.

Pick: Sporting (-1) 
Stake: 6/10 Odds: 2.18 Bookmaker: Redbet

[pulsar12]

@Filixlion beware Sporting at the moment and they are still without Adrien... forget about the past season game, today they are different team. Yes, Nacional didn't start the season well and show's inconsistency, but even though i wouldn't bet on Sporting -1 only at 2.18. This usually is a difficult stadium because of the foggy conditions and high altitude, and notice that Nacional lost 3 games at home (not 4), two of them against Benfica and Porto and the other against Chaves which is doing very good this season. I will wait until tomorrow news and to see weather and players available and then share my tips.

Edited October 26, 2016 by pulsar12

[pulsar12]

Nacional - Sporting (28 Oct 21:00 GMT+1)

Nacional stadium (Choupana) is known for its difficult climate conditions (located at 600m of altitude). Tomorrow the prediction is to be cloudy with rain, windy  and possibility of thunders. 

Sporting still without reference player Adrien, so expect an unstable team.

Nacional defense is one of the poorest with 13 goals against, and they will be without Tobias defense player for tomorrow(due to sporting loan). On attack, forwarders Cadiz and Witi will not play due to injury but Hamzaoui will return to produce good combination with Agra and Tiago Rodrigues.

I think tomorrow anything can happen, but one thing i am confident is goals. Sporting can score plenty but can also screw up on the late stages of the game (as usual), or Nacional could eve win like Rio Ave did. I would not be surprised if this game end with result like  2-2, 3-2, 1-4...

over 4,5 > 5.30

Nacional to win > 7.75

BTTS > 2.00

[Filixlion]

21 hours ago, pulsar12 said:

@Filixlion beware Sporting at the moment and they are still without Adrien... forget about the past season game, today they are different team. Yes, Nacional didn't start the season well and show's inconsistency, but even though i wouldn't bet on Sporting -1 only at 2.18. This usually is a difficult stadium because of the foggy conditions and high altitude, and notice that Nacional lost 3 games at home (not 4), two of them against Benfica and Porto and the other against Chaves which is doing very good this season. I will wait until tomorrow news and to see weather and players available and then share my tips.

Pulsar I know adrien will not play because is injuried... and yes Nacional played 4 games at home win 1 and lost 3. But when you say they are a different team i don´t agree with you... the coach is the same, the ideas and the way the team play is the same. Well sporting without adrien is weaker team for sure, but also Nacional has 1 more problem to solve on there defense, central defender Tobias Figueiredo on loan from sporting will not play, and my predition is base on statistics and facts but you are free to have a different view my friend... 

Good bettings

 

[Filixlion]

Tondela - Moreirense

Well... 2 teams with few points that are in the lower places of the table 16º and 17º respectively. Moreirense with poor performance lately, failed to win last round against Rio Ave at home drawing 1-1 and missed a penalty in the last minute of the game. Defensively visitors are weak, they suffered 7 goals in the last eight league matches and never managed to get around to a result when suffering a goal first. At this moment visiting team is unmotivated and will play against a home team that on the contrary has motivation high and joins the support of there on crowd.
Tondela comes from a positive result in alvalade, drew 1-1 and could have won this game if do not have been a goal in injury time that could be given them the 3 points. Last game at home agaisnt Pacos Ferreira home team win 2-1, and they also take points against a strong team like Porto... besides last season Moreirense never win any of the games against Tondela.

Pick: Tondela DNB 

Stake: 5/10 Odds: 1.75 Pinnacle

Edited October 27, 2016 by Filixlion

[malabgd]

Nacional Madeira v Sporting Lisboa

Nacional Madeira: Figueiredo (7/1 d, on loan from Sporting), Witi (4/0 f), Cadiz (1/0 f)

Sporting Lisboa: Jefferson (2/0 d), Petrović (0/0 m), Adrien (7/1 m, captain), Bruno Paulista (3/0 m), Spalvis (0/0 f)

 

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