Scotland, Ireland & Wales > 2016/17 Season - All Bets in there folks!

[Sir Puntalot]

 

[malabgd]

Kilmarnock FC v Motherwell FC

Kilmarnock FC (last season): Will Boyle (d, newcomer, probably in), Greg Kiltie (35/6 f, 2nd top scorer, doubtful), Devlin Mackay (0/0 g)

Motherwell FC (last season): Scott McDonald (37/10 f, 2nd top scorer, probably in), Jacob Blyth (f, newcomer, doubtful), Keith Lasley (30/1 m, suspended), Louis Moult (38/15 f, top scorer), Lee Lucas (m, newcomer)

 

Ross County v Dundee FC

Ross County: no absences

Dundee FC (last season): Nick Ross (37/1 m), Mark O'Hara (m, newcomer), Nicky Low (21/0 m)(all doubtful)

 

Ayr United v Raith Rovers

Ayr United (last season): Craig Moore (25/14 f, top scorer, doubtful), Brian Gilmour (23/2 m)

Raith Rovers (last season): Iain Davidson (29/0 m), Scott Robertson (19/1 m)(both doubtful), Craig Barr (12/1 d), David Bates (10/0 d, went on loan)

 

Dunfermline v Dumbarton FC

Dunfermline (last season): David Hopkirk (29/4 f, doubtful), Jason Talbot (34/1 d, suspended), Callum Fordyce (6/0 d)

Dumbarton FC (last season): Frazer Wright (27/0 d), Darren Barr (31/3 d)(both doubtful), Grant Gallagher (31/2 m, suspended)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[StevieDay1983]

Odds provided by bet365.

Anybody ever bet regularly on the Welsh Premier League? Just asking due to my interest in the division. Only six games each week due to the 12 team set-up. Makes a six fold accumulator always interesting!

This week I am going for...

Carmarthen and Airbus to draw

Cefn Druids to beat Cardiff Met

Bala Town to beat Bangor City

Connah's Quay to beat Newtown

Llandudno to beat Aberystwyth

TNS to beat Rhyl

Odds of 47.62 on those selections.

[Kenton Schweppes]

Just on the League of Wales mate, there always seem to be an avalanche of goals in games, over 2.5 goals was a regular occurrence, having not followed it that much, is this still the case? Do you have much success on this league? I used to mix selections in on a Friday night with other games from the UK but not touched it for a while.

[Kenton Schweppes]

Does anyone know much about the League of Ireland Premier? Thinking of maybe looking at a 4 fold of Shamrock Rovers, Dundalk, Derry City in with Darlington 1883 from the Conference North. Any thoughts? Pays 11/1 with Sky Bet.

Little puzzled with the Shamrock Rovers price, 21/20, for a home team in form(ish), way higher up the table, granted Shamrock's record in this fixture is pretty poor but does that effect current form what happened 2 years ago? I also get its a derby fixture but on stats I think that's a generous price.

Anyone?

Edited September 1, 2016 by Kenton Schweppes

[StevieDay1983]

On 29/08/2016, 17:54:04, Kenton Schweppes said:

Just on the League of Wales mate, there always seem to be an avalanche of goals in games, over 2.5 goals was a regular occurrence, having not followed it that much, is this still the case? Do you have much success on this league? I used to mix selections in on a Friday night with other games from the UK but not touched it for a while.

Hi Kenton, sorry, forgot to reply to this. TNS are obviously the stand-out favourites each week to a degree that it's not even worth backing them except in a Handicap. Due to their 10-0 win over Rhyl at the end of last month their goal difference is now +17. They appear to be taking things to the next level this season. Bangor City are also usually up there. I was always a fan of backing Bala Town but they are struggling this season.

It's just an underrated league in terms of action. The title is usually sewn up by February which is the main problem but the rest of the league is always closely contested. You can make a fair amount of profit if you stick to the over 2.5 goals scored or BTTS accas though.

[chris666]

Alloa to go marching on and beat Livingston at 23/20 @ bet 365

[Kenton Schweppes]

What's the lowdown for tomorrows games in the LOW Steve mate?

Edited September 10, 2016 by Kenton Schweppes

[clubgowi]

Irish Premier League: Finn Harps - Bray Wanderers

I want to take on goal shy Finn Harps again today, ahead of Tuesday's trip to Sligo Rovers I wrote ..........

"Finn Harps arrive without suspended left back Ciaran Coll and striker Dave Scully who are both suspended , also have Josh Mailey unavailable and several other knocks, which will require late tests. They have scored just twice since July 8th, only 19 times all season and have now lost nine in a row and confidence is shot and runs like these are very hard to address. The visitors currently sit four clear of the relegation playoff places and still have to travel to play the team directly below them, they could do with a point or two, but they are more likely to come at home, and they entertain Bray on Friday night and there is a good chance that if they fall behind this evening, that attention will quickly switch to that, a fixture which is more win-able and for which they will have increased options. They have no real replacement for Coll at LB, the unavailable Mailey stepped in the last time he was missing, so that is not an option, it is likely to be a midfielder stepping back and they are already short of left flank options."

Harps came away with a valuable point in a 0-0 draw, but were a little fortunate, with the hosts missing a late, late penalty.

They have now played Saturday/Tuesday/Friday with a beat up squad and face a Bray side who have not played for eight days and who are on absolute fire, posting five wins in a row, with a 13-3 goal difference, including three on the road. They have their eyes on 5th place , which would be their second highest finish ever and they would move into that position with all three points this evening.

Wanderers appointed Harry Kenny head coach in mid June, when they had just 8 points on board from 15 starts, he seriously upgraded the squad in the summer and they have collected 30 points from 14 starts since, an increase of 1.61 points per game, if Bray had performed at this level all season, they would be top of the IPL. If current leaders Dundalk were coming here tonight, they would be quoted as big odds on chances and the visitors look a very attractive price. Striker Ger Pender has scored in the last five league starts and will be keen to extend that club record this evening and Wanderers their 13 match unbeaten run.

Home boss Ollie Horgan would love to have an option like that, striker Ruairi Keating is definitely out after sustaining ankle ligament damage on Tuesday, fellow forward Dave Scully remains suspended ,veteran attacker Kevin McHugh will also be absent after sustaining a serious hand injury on Wednesday in a coaching session ,Adam Hanlon is a serious doubt. On the plus side they do get Ciaran Coll ( see above) back, but it is goals which are the big issue, that situation is compounded by players missing today and it is hard to see where the next one is coming from, whilst Bray cannot stop scoring !

Bray Wanderers -0.5 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

 

[StevieDay1983]

On 10/09/2016, 21:24:31, Kenton Schweppes said:

What's the lowdown for tomorrows games in the LOW Steve mate?

Apologies for missing this one, @Kenton Schweppes. Will be looking to make coverage of the WPL a regular thing. I will set up an established thread when the next round of games come along and take it from there.

[winnerwinner]

No.	Selections	Event	Event Date	E/W Terms	Odds	Result
1	Sligo Rovers	Sligo Rovers v Longford Town (Full Time Result)	15/10/2016	None	1.40	To Run
2	Derry City	Derry City v Bohemians Dublin (Full Time Result)	15/10/2016	None	1.57	To Run
3	Cork City -1.5	Cork City v Finn Harps (Alternative Asian Handicap)	15/10/2016	None	1.425	To Run

[winnerwinner]

11 hours ago, winnerwinner said:

No.	Selections	Event	Event Date	E/W Terms	Odds	Result
1	Sligo Rovers	Sligo Rovers v Longford Town (Full Time Result)	15/10/2016	None	1.40	To Run
2	Derry City	Derry City v Bohemians Dublin (Full Time Result)	15/10/2016	None	1.57	To Run
3	Cork City -1.5	Cork City v Finn Harps (Alternative Asian Handicap)	15/10/2016	None	1.425	To Run

Boom. All 3 won

[StevieDay1983]

@winnerwinner, you up for sharing your Irish tips regularly? Will get a thread sorted on a weekly basis if you are mate so you don't have to shove them in here.

[_Ghost_]

Can anybody give me a reason not to back Elgin for L2? As you can see below a mile clear on my shots ratings below, my projections (which are independent from my shots ratings) have them winning the league by 3 points, I'll confess my knowledge of lower Scottish football is limited to the numbers in front of me...

[_Ghost_]

Scottish Champ and L1 stats for a laugh...

[Sir Puntalot]

@jamiedavies02 - It all depends Jamie. I've been doing my ratings for around 15 years (god I sound old  ) and while they're great generally, there are some anomalies. These are teams with high ratings, but clearly can't defend to save their life, basically kamikaze. 

Looks a detailed spreadsheet, but I'm not sure how you can realistically project a team's finishing position because there's so much that could happen.  

[_Ghost_]

I use the Football-Data normally for my ratings, they don't cover lower Scotsfor shot data so I collate that manually from the SPFL website, however I've noticed their shots on target to total shots ratio is alot higher than other leagues (like 50+% compared to 30% other leagues) so I'm airing on the side of caution.

Projections wise I have a tissue price for each teams remaining matches and work out their projected total added to points already amassed, obviously it relies on my tissue being accurate in the first place, this allows me to run simulations for the rest of the season to obtain a rough % chance of a team winning the league.  The tissue prices is independent of my shots ratings and takes into account a team 1X2 record over the past 500 days with a base rating for promoted/ relegated teams, the past is the best guide to the future. As I said in an earleir post this is all numbers based, I don't have the knowledge of the intimacies of the lower scottish league like I do for other leagues, that's where this place and other forums will hopefully come in handy, ie put some meat on the bones of the numbers

Edited November 3, 2016 by jamiedavies02

[_Ghost_]

For what it's worth based on 10,000 simulations here are my Scottish League 2 prices...

Elgin	11/8
Forfar	10/3
Clyde	7/2
Annan Athletic	11/1
Cowdenbeath	40/1
Berwick	80/1
Arbroath	100/1
Stirling	750/1
Montrose	1,500/1
Edinburgh City	10,000/1